AuthorTopic: Official Chinese Toast Thread  (Read 227459 times)

Offline RE

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #105 on: March 10, 2014, 02:33:08 AM »
New Stanza:

"When China Blows
The Whole Ball of Wax Goes
Everybody Knows"

Look Out Below


RE

Celebrating China's First Bond Default: Copper Limit Down, Yuan Crashes Most In Six Years

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It would appear the fecal matter is starting to come into contact with the rotating object in China. Worrying headlines are beginning to mount on the back of real economic events (an actual default and a collapse in exports):

  • *COPPER IN SHANGHAI FALLS BY 5% DAILY LIMIT TO 46,670 YUAN A TON
  • *CHINA YUAN WEAKENS 0.46% TO 6.1564 VS U.S. DOLLAR
  • *YUAN DROPS MOST SINCE 2008

Aside from that Iron ore prices are crumbling, Asian stocks are dropping, Chinese corporate bond prices aee falling at their fastest pace in almost 4 months, and all this as 7-day repo drops to one-year lows (as banks hoard liquidity).

 

Item #1: The forced unwind of massive rehypothecated copper lots related to concerns over shadow-banking defaults sparked by the fact that Chaori was allowed to actually default...

 

Pushing Shanghai copper limit down...

 

Item #2: Iron Ore prices collapsing for similar reasons (as borrowers rotated to Steel and by-products for collateral on their shadow bank lending facilities)...

 

Item #3: Corporate bond prices are dropping at their fastest in 4 months...

 

Item #4: Repo rates are at near-record lows as banks hoard liquidity...

 

Item #5: USDCNY is tumbling as PBOC efforts to unwind the massvley one-sided carry trade appear to be getting out of control...

 

Item #6: AsiaPac stocks are down by their most in almost 6 weeks...

 

Item #7: Even US equity futures are unhappy (with JPY carry having caught up and now dumping again)...

 

Bonus Item: Copper-to-Gold ratios are collapsing...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Offline RE

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SHOWTIME!
« Reply #106 on: March 10, 2014, 03:41:03 AM »
Besides the fact today looks like one of those good "short the phone book" opportunities, I figured I would muse a little about the impending Collapse of the Chinese Bubble.

The stories are coming out so fast and furious now that it seems like about everyone expects the China Bubble to finally pop here.  When everybody expects something to occur, it usually gets "priced in" to the market.  In other words, all the Hedge Funds cut their exposure to whatever is being priced in.  Question is, can you Price In a China Bubble collapse?

We all know a few things.  First off, that the Chinese Credit Market has ballooned up so big so fast it makes Helicopter Ben's QE and Abenomics look like Kindergarten stuff.  Every sector of the market has been affected, with rampant specualtion in everything from Real Estate to Copper, and of course to Gold also which the Chinese have been hording and importing by the Boatload.  Essentially, the Chinese ARE the market for commodities, since this is where much of the world Industrial capacity is now.  If the Chinese don't buy it, who will, and with what money?

Second, we also know Da Fed has been pumping liquidity into the TBTF Banks, and most of this money has Gone East in search of Yield as the Bubble over there expanded.  The Prop Desks at Goldman and JP Morgan might WANT to decrease their exposure, but how can you unwind in a few weeks even what you have spent the better part of the last 5 years winding up?

Given this state of affairs, one has to expect that a Chinese Bubble Collapse is not something anybody can hide from or hedge against.  If these folks are writing Insurance Policies (Credit Default Swaps) against such an occurrence, whoever wrote the policy would have to pay off basically in the $Trillions$, which of course they don't really have.

Besides CDS being likely very ineffective here (at best, at worst they will blow it up worse), it also seems unlikely Da Fed or the PBoC could do much either.  Both CBs have essentially shot their wad in blowing this bubble to begin with, so exactly how they could stop a cascade collapse in the Chinese markets simply by pitching still more paper at them is very tough to figure.

So, what does a collapse of the Chinese Bubble look like?  Basically like Lehman on Steroids of course.  The TBTF Banks involved all owe each other many multiples of money they actually have, through rehypothecation of all these assets on their books.  If/When these assets are marked to market, balance  sheets go completely in the Crapper, but still worse than that is they can't repo or collect on virtually anything here.  The Daisy Chain of loans is so complex it will take years of Legal finagling to sort out who owns what of whatever is left in the smoking pile of rubbish, and in the meantime nobody trusts anybody else, no loans are made, LIQUIDITY LOCKUP!

Since about everything is priced out in Dollars, they are going to be at a major Premium here.  Everyone will scramble to sell whatever they can in return for precious Toilet Paper.  That should produce a rapid deflationary event in most items you might buy, with the possible exception of food because that also appears to be running more scarce these days.  Energy however would deflate, since the Chinese would not be buying, but rather just selling whatever Inventory they have at Rock Bottom prices.  Could be a great Buying Opportunity at Walmart for preps, at least till the inventory sells out.

Less clear here is what occurs to the Digibits sitting in your Bank Account.  Will now Blatantly Insolvent Banks withhold these funds from the Depositors?  The Cyprus example indicates that would be a possible scenario.  The other one is that the FDIC ponies up money they don't have either to pay off depositors, but that could only be done by Naked Printing, which so far has not been a choice made in the major currencies.

In any event, the Chinese Credit Market is the Black Swan Circling here even more than Ukraine, though of course tha also is quite big on the Geopolitical level.  That also is not a problem that had to be dealt with during the Lehman collapse, at the time there was relative Stability between the Ruskies and NATO.  5 years later, basically everyone is at each other's throats here already.  The Chinese and Japanese also are at each other's throats over the South China Sea.  So a blow up in the Chinese Credit market likely pushes one or more of these conflicts over the edge.

The outcome of all of it seems clear, World War.  How that will be engaged precisely remains to be seen, as nobody really can afford it and once it gets underway accessing the energy to continue to run it would be pretty difficult.  All sides pretty much have the ability to take out the other side's energy production and distribution facilities, in some cases (like the electric grid) without even firing a missile, just letting loose a Virus or two over the net.

It looks to be quite the show though, with Act II set to begin here now.  The Key Players are all set in place...

It's SHOWTIME!
RE
« Last Edit: March 10, 2014, 04:56:04 AM by RE »
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Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #107 on: March 10, 2014, 04:39:57 AM »
Another excellent explanation for the layman there RE.
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Offline WHD

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #108 on: March 10, 2014, 07:29:57 AM »
China bubble bursts, defaults ricochet across America. No way does this 70% consumer-driven economy not crash, starved of cheap Chinese consumer product. I don't care how much money flees China etc into the "stable" dollar. If consumer America can't assuage it's anxieties shopping, it will have a psychotic breakdown.

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DSM-VI Edits & Additions: Product Deficiency Syndrome
« Reply #109 on: March 10, 2014, 07:36:39 AM »
China bubble bursts, defaults ricochet across America. No way does this 70% consumer-driven economy not crash, starved of cheap Chinese consumer product. I don't care how much money flees China etc into the "stable" dollar. If consumer America can't assuage it's anxieties shopping, it will have a psychotic breakdown.

No doubt, there will need to be psychological READJUSTMENT period when the Walmart shelves go bare.  Uncle Bob can make a KILLING during this period!  He can be the World Expert in Product Deficiency Syndrome!  LOL.

RE
« Last Edit: March 10, 2014, 07:38:27 AM by RE »
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Offline RE

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China Bubble Bursting
« Reply #110 on: March 13, 2014, 11:34:34 PM »
Looks like the China Bubble is Bursting.


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Chinese Authorities Halt Virtual Credit Card Payments; Tencent, Yahoo Crashing

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The PBOC issued a statement today, according to 21st Century Business Herald, that halts virtual credit card products and "face-to-face" payment services such as QR code payment:

  • *PBOC HALTS QR CODE PAYMENT: 21ST HERALD
  • *PBOC HALTS VIRTUAL CREDIT CARDS BY ALIPAY, TENCENT: 21ST HERALD

Tencent is down over 5%, China CITIC is crushed, and Yahoo was dumped in morning trading in Japan (on the back of Alibaba's Alipay service being affected).

 

21st Century Business Herald reports:

March 13, the central bank issued an urgent document halt Alipay, Tencent's virtual credit card products, but stopped there barcode (QR Code) payment and other payment services face to face.

21st Century Network 21 has learned that on March 13, the central bank issued an urgent document halt Alipay, Tencent's virtual credit card products, but stopped there barcode (QR Code) payment and other payment services face to face.

 

Tencent is tumbling (and it appears perhaps a few people knew earlier in the week)...

China CITIC is down hard...

 

and Yahoo (trading in Japan) was flushed on massive volume at the open...


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Bye, Bye, Chinese RE Bubble Pie
« Reply #111 on: March 19, 2014, 11:55:35 PM »
AKA...

KATY BAR THE DOOR!
A scramble to liquidate RE investments is marching into one of the most illiquid types of investment you can make in a collapsing market.

This will be entertaining to watch as it plays out.

RE

The Music Just Ended: "Wealthy" Chinese Are Liquidating Offshore Luxury Homes In Scramble For Cash

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One of the primary drivers of the real estate bubble in the past several years, particularly in the ultra-luxury segment, were megawealthy Chinese buyers, seeking to park their cash into the safety of offshore real estate where it was deemed inaccessible to mainland regulators and overseers, tracking just where the Chinese record credit bubble would end up. Some, such as us, called it "hot money laundering", and together with foreclosure stuffing and institutional flipping (of rental units and otherwise), we said this was the third leg of the recent US housing bubble. However, while the impact of Chinese buying in the US has been tangible, it has paled in comparison with the epic Chinese buying frenzy in other offshore metropolitan centers like London and Hong Kong. This is understandable: after all as Chuck Prince famously said in 2007, just before the first US mega-bubble burst, "as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance." In China, the music just ended.

But more so than mere analyses which speculate on the true state of the Chinese record credit-fueled economy, such as the one we posted earlier today in which Morgan Stanley noted that China's "Minsky Moment" has finally arrived, we now can judge them by their actions.

And sure enough, it didn't take long before the debris from China's sharp, sudden attempt to "realign" its runaway credit bubble, including the first ever corporate bond default earlier this month, floated right back to the surface.

Presenting Exhibit A:

 
 

Cash-strapped Chinese are scrambling to sell their luxury homes in Hong Kong, and some are knocking up to a fifth off the price for a quick sale, as a liquidity crunch looms on the mainland.

Said otherwise, what goes up is now rapidly coming down.

 
 

Wealthy Chinese were blamed for pushing up property prices in the former British territory, where they accounted for 43 percent of new luxury home sales in the third quarter of 2012, before a tax hike on foreign buyers was announced.

 

The rush to sell coincides with a forecast 10 percent drop in property prices this year as the tax increase and rising borrowing costs cool demand. At the same time, credit conditions in China have tightened. Earlier this week, the looming bankruptcy of a Chinese property developer owing 3.5 billion yuan ($565.25 million) heightened concerns that financial risk was spreading.

 

"Some of the mainland sellers have liquidity issues - say, their companies in China have some difficulties - so they sold the houses to get cash," said Norton Ng, account manager at a Centaline Property real estate office close to the China border, where luxury houses costing up to HK$30 million ($3.9 million) have been popular with mainland buyers.

Alas, as the recent events in China, chronicled in minute detail here have revealed, the "liquidity issues" of the mainland sellers are about to go from bad to much worse. As for Hong Kong, it may have been last said so long ago nobody even remembers the origins of the word but, suddenly, it is now a seller's market:

 
 

Property agents said mainland Chinese own close to a third of the existing homes that are now for sale in Hong Kong - up 20 percent from a year ago. Many are offering discounts of 5-10 percent below the market average - and in some cases as much as 20 percent - to make a quick sale, property agents and analysts said.

Also known as a liquidation. And like every game theoretical outcome, he who defects first, or in this case sells, first, sells best. In fact, since panicked selling will only beget more selling, watch as prices suddenly plunge in what was until recently one of the most overvalued property markets in the world. And with prices still at nosebleed levels, not even BlackRock would be able to be a large enough bid to absorb all the slamming offers as suddenly everyone rushes to cash out.

The biggest irony: after creating ghost towns at home, the Chinese "uber wealthy" army is doing so abroad.

 
 

In a Hong Kong housing development called Valais, about 10 minutes drive from the Chinese border, real estate agents said that between a quarter and a half of the 330 houses are now on sale. At the development's frenzied debut in 2010, a third of the HK$30-HK$66 million units were sold on the first day, with nearly half going to mainland China buyers.

 

Dubbed a "ghost town" by local media, the development built by the city's largest developer, Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd (0016.HK), is one of many estates in Hong Kong where agents are seeing an increasing number of Chinese eager to sell.

 

"Many mainland buyers bought lots of properties in Hong Kong when the market was red-hot three years ago," said Joseph Tsang, managing director at Jones Lang LaSalle. "But now they want to cash in as liquidity is quite tight in the mainland."

Perhaps our post from yesterday chronicling the crash of the Chinese property developer market was on to something. And of course, as also described in detail, should China's Zhejiang Xingrun not be bailed out, as the PBOC sternly refuted it would do on Weibo, watch as the intermediary firms themselves shutter all credit, and bring the Chinese property market, both domestic and foreign, to a grinding halt (something he highlighted in our chart of the day).

Meanwhile, the selling rush is on.

In a nearby development called The Green - developed by China Overseas Land & Investment (0688.HK) - about one-fifth of the houses delivered at the start of this year are up for sale. More than half of the units, bought for between HK$18 million and HK$60 million, were snapped up by mainland Chinese in 2012.

Because so much changes in just over a year.

 
 

"Some banks were chasing them (Chinese landlords) for money, so they need to move some cash back to the mainland," said Ricky Poon, executive director of residential sales at Colliers International. "They're under greater pressure from banks, so they're cutting prices."

 

In West Kowloon district, an area where mainland Chinese bought up close to a quarter of the apartments in many newly-developed estates, some Chinese landlords are offering discounts on the higher-end, three- to four-bedroom apartments they bought just a few years ago.

 

This month, a Chinese landlord sold a 1,300 square foot (121 square meter) apartment at the Imperial Cullinan - a high-end estate developed by Sun Hung Kai in 2012 - for HK$19.3 million, 17 percent less than the original price. The landlord told agents to sell the flat "as soon as possible," said Richard Chan, branch manager at Centaline Property in West Kowloon.

 

In the same area, a 645 square foot, 2-bedroom flat in the Central Park development was sold in just two days after the Chinese owner put it on the market at HK$6.5 million in what agents called the year's best bargain - the cheapest price for a unit of its kind over the past year.

Don't worry there will be many more bargains. Why? Because what was once a buying panic - as recently as months ago - has finally shifted to its logical conclusion. Selling.

 
 

"The most important thing for them is to sell as soon as possible," Centaline's Chan said. "In the past two weeks, those who were willing to cut prices were mainland Chinese. It is going to have some impact on the local property market, that's for sure."

Indeed. And once the Hong Kong liquidation frenzy is over, and leaves the city in a state of shock, watch as the great Chinese selling horde stampedes from Los Angeles, to New York, to London, Zurich and Geneva, and leave not a single 50% off sign in its wake.

The good news? All those inaccessibly priced houses that were solely the stratospheric domain of the ultra-high net worth oligarch and criminal jet set, will soon be available to the general public. Especially once the global housing bubble pops, which may have just happened.


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Re: Bye, Bye, Chinese RE Bubble Pie
« Reply #112 on: March 20, 2014, 12:02:54 AM »
And still more Good Newz from China...

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The Chinese Yuan Is Collapsing

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The Yuan has weakened over 250 pips in early China trading. Trading at almost 6.22, we are now deeply into the significant-loss-realizing region of the world's carry-traders and Chinese over-hedgers. Morgan Stanley estimates a minimum $4.8bn loss for each 100 pip move. However, the bigger picture is considerably worse as the vicious circle of desperate liquidity needs are starting to gang up on Hong Kong real estate and commodity prices. For those who see the silver lining in this and construe all this as a reason to buy more developed world stocks on the premise that the money flooding out of China (et al.) will be parked in the S&P are overlooking the fact that the purchase price of these now-unwanted positions was most likely borrowed, meaning that their liquidation will also extinguish the associated credit, not re-allocate it.

 

While widening the trading bands keeps some semblance of rationality, this is anything but an orderly unwind of the world's largest carry trades:

For some context, this is the biggest quarterly drop in CNY since Q4 1993...

 

 

How Much Is at Stake?
In their previous note, MS estimated that US$350 billion of TRF have been sold since the beginning of 2013. When we dig deeper, we think it is reasonable to assume that most of what was sold in 2013 has been knocked out (at the lower knock-outs), given the price action seen in 2013.

Given that, and given what business we’ve done in 2014 calendar year to date, we think a reasonable estimate is that US$150 billion of product remains.

 

Taking that as a base case, we can then estimate the size of potential losses to holders of these products if USD/CNH keeps trading higher.

 

In round numbers, we estimate that for every 0.1 move in USD/CNH above the average EKI (which we have assumed here is 6.20), corporates will lose US$200 million a month. The real pain comes if USD/CNH stays above this level, as these losses will accrue every month until the contract expires. Given contracts are 24 months in tenor, this implies around US$4.8 billion in total losses for every 0.1 above the average EKI.

 

Below we have tried to simplify what is happening as much as possible... (since there are many pathways into and out of all of these positions) to try and enable most to comprehend the problem

Virtuous circle... (last few years)

  • Specs sell USD/JPY/EUR, Buy CNY
  • Use CNY to buy copper/commodities
  • Use copper to finance credit
  • Use credit to finance working capital/real estate purchases
  • Real estate goes up, more credit available
  • Copper goes up, more credit available
  • encourages more buying CNY to start virtuous circle...

BUT what happens when one of these chains start to break? OR ALL OF THEM? (now!)

  • Thanks to PBOC, can't roll debt via shadow banking system
  • Can't rely on local govt to bail out cashflow
  • Sell copper/commodities to meet cashflow needs
  • Copper price goes down, credit tightens
  • Credit tightens, Real estate prices drop
  • Real estate prices drop, specs start exiting CNY
  • CNY weakens...

And then... (tomorrow)

  • Plenty more firms piled on to use the inexorable trend in CNY strengthening as their carry-trade piggy bank (or merely to hedge their export receipts)...
  • Those derivative (over-hedges) are now losing money very rapidly...
  • Liquidate hedges - downward pressure on CNY
  • downward pressure on CNY, more losses...

Remember carry-traders are little more than sophisticated leveraged momentum players - so when the trend is no longer your friend, no amount of carry-arbitrage will cover MtM losses on the notional...

 

Arguing that the PBOC can defend the currency is moot (they clearly do not wish to); Arguing that the PBOC will manage liquidity via their huge FX reserves is moot (they have done so with the banks - who are awash with liquidity as noted by the low repo rates) - this is about forcing the shadow-banking system to shrink before the bubble becomes totally untenable... unfortunately, we suspect it already has...

Oh dear, remember the Chinese corporation that untenably insolvent but "promised" it would meet interest payments in July and not default... well:

  • *BAODING TIANWEI BOND TRADING SUSPENDED BY SHANGHAI EXCHANGE

Uh oh...

All the carry-funded idiocy of the world is starting to uwind

 

As the world slowly realizes the Fed's growing hawkishness (what are they afraid of? or do they really believe that the economy is growing organically?)

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Offline RE

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Official Chinese Toast Thread: Ambrose Capitulates
« Reply #113 on: March 21, 2014, 11:29:57 PM »
When Ambrose capitulates to a collapsing Chinese Carry Trade, there are definite problems.

Did he actually MENTION Derivatives here?  ACCCKKKK!

RE

Tumbling Chinese yuan sets off 'carry trade' rout, triggers derivatives contracts

The yuan has lost 3pc since January, a clear break with China’s long-standing policy of slow appreciation


 China’s yuan has suffered its biggest one-week fall in 20 years, nearing key trigger levels that threaten a wave of forced selling and mounting stress for those with dollar debts.

The jitters come amid reports of fire-sales of Hong Kong property by Chinese investors desperate to raise cash, some slashing their prices by 20pc for a quick sale. A liquidity squeeze in mainland China has already led to the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun real estate this week with $570m of debts, the biggest property failure so far.

The yuan weakened sharply on Thursday to 6.23 against the dollar and has now lost 3pc since January, a clear break with China’s long-standing policy of slow appreciation.

Geoffrey Kendrick, from Morgan Stanley, said the currency has broken through the 6.20 level where a cluster of structured products are triggered. These are known as losses on target redemption funds. The losses have already hit $3.5bn.

The latest move creates a potential “non-linear movement” that could push the yuan rapidly to the next level at 6.38, where estimated losses would reach $7.5bn, and from there jump to 6.50.

Mr Kendrick said banks in Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea are heavily exposed, but there could also be a serious fallout for Chinese airlines, shipping and property companies, as well as a nexus of finance built around use of copper and iron as collateral.

Chinese companies have borrowed $1.1 trillion on the Hong Kong markets, a quarter from UK-based banks. There is complex web “carry trade” of positions in which investors borrow in dollars to buy yuan assets, often with leverage. These trades are highly vulnerable to a dollar squeeze as the US Federal Reserve brings forward its plans for rate rises.

Morgan Stanley said the Chinese central bank may have to intervene to shore up the yuan by selling some of its US dollar bonds if the slide goes much further. The authorities spent $80bn in June/July 2012 to defend its currency band.

For now China seems to be weakening the yuan deliberately. Mark Williams and Qinwei Wang, from Capital Economics, said the data flow suggests that the central bank bought $25bn of foreign bonds last month in order to force down the currency. The motive is to teach speculators a lesson and curb hot money inflows.

However, suspicions are also are growing that China’s authorities have quietly switched to a devaluation policy to buffer the shock to the economy as they attempt to curb excess credit, even though this would risk a clash with Washington. “The more they undershoot their growth target, the more tempting it may look to have a weaker currency to help out,” said Kit Juckes, from Societe Generale.

Premier Li Keqiang said on Thursday that China would take steps quickly to “stabilise growth and boost domestic demand”, a sign Beijing is worried that tightening may have gone too far. Credit Agricole expects the central bank to slash the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 200 basis points this year.

Morgan Stanley said China is approaching a “Minsky Moment”, a turning point when credit bubbles implode under their weight. “There is evidence that this debt growth has become excessive and non-productive. It now takes four renminbi of debt to create one renminbi of GDP growth from a nearly 1:1 ratio in the early and mid-2000s.”

“It is clear to us that speculative and Ponzi finance dominate China’s economy at this stage. The question is when and how the system’s current instability resolves itself,” said the bank.

“A disorderly unwind could take Chinese growth down to 4pc in a shorter time frame with potentially disastrous consequences for levered Chinese assets (banks, property) and the entire commodity supply chain,” it said.
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Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #114 on: April 20, 2014, 05:59:50 PM »
Oh my GOD!  You mean they could slow from a FANTASTICALLY fast rate of growth
down to only a VERY fast rate of growth?!?  This is a disaster!  This presages the
irreversible collapse of not only China, but of global industrial civilization!

For Banksters this represents a "Hard Landing", because  all their investments are based on the Chinese continuing to grow their economy at outrageous rates.

{yawn}

15 months and counting, here.

China is at 7.4% annualized growth, about where it was 2 years ago.

No collapse. No "hard landing" because China is not growing at the rate it was during the super-growth years.

BUT, you never know, right? The wheels could come off NEXT MONTH! We could be, at this very moment, on the very cusp of the tidal wave!  It could ALL come CRASHING DOWN at ANY MOMENT!

And if it doesn't, and the tension causes too much anxious depression, we can always just off ourselves, like Ruppert.


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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #115 on: April 20, 2014, 06:44:26 PM »
No collapse. No "hard landing" because China is not growing at the rate it was during the super-growth years.

I am sure China will do just fine here.



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Offline Karpatok

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #116 on: April 20, 2014, 06:53:35 PM »
Oh my GOD!  You mean they could slow from a FANTASTICALLY fast rate of growth
down to only a VERY fast rate of growth?!?  This is a disaster!  This presages the
irreversible collapse of not only China, but of global industrial civilization!

For Banksters this represents a "Hard Landing", because  all their investments are based on the Chinese continuing to grow their economy at outrageous rates.

{yawn}

15 months and counting, here.

China is at 7.4% annualized growth, about where it was 2 years ago.

No collapse. No "hard landing" because China is not growing at the rate it was during the super-growth years.

BUT, you never know, right? The wheels could come off NEXT MONTH! We could be, at this very moment, on the very cusp of the tidal wave!  It could ALL come CRASHING DOWN at ANY MOMENT!

And if it doesn't, and the tension causes too much anxious depression, we can always just off ourselves, like Ruppert.
   Allan, welcome back to see you posting again. What a wonderful breath of fresh air and CFS. And in addition to what you have said, it stands to reason that China will also help  The Russian Federation in the standoff over the Ukraine. Let's hope so. What do you think?  Karpatok

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #117 on: April 20, 2014, 07:22:37 PM »
Oh my GOD!  You mean they could slow from a FANTASTICALLY fast rate of growth
down to only a VERY fast rate of growth?!?  This is a disaster!  This presages the
irreversible collapse of not only China, but of global industrial civilization!

For Banksters this represents a "Hard Landing", because  all their investments are based on the Chinese continuing to grow their economy at outrageous rates.

{yawn}

15 months and counting, here.

China is at 7.4% annualized growth, about where it was 2 years ago.

No collapse. No "hard landing" because China is not growing at the rate it was during the super-growth years.

BUT, you never know, right? The wheels could come off NEXT MONTH! We could be, at this very moment, on the very cusp of the tidal wave!  It could ALL come CRASHING DOWN at ANY MOMENT!

And if it doesn't, and the tension causes too much anxious depression, we can always just off ourselves, like Ruppert.
   Allan, welcome back to see you posting again. What a wonderful breath of fresh air and CFS. And in addition to what you have said, it stands to reason that China will also help  The Russian Federation in the standoff over the Ukraine. Let's hope so. What do you think?  Karpatok

Alan, does this mean you think the australian economy dependent on shipping raw materials to china will not collapse, which I have to admit Im impatiently waiting for? Can they overcome the pollution problems by buying up property everywhere else?

K, its obviously a depusiffation plague.
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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #118 on: April 20, 2014, 07:35:12 PM »
    UB, just what did you mean by "depusiffation" plague. I've never seen that word before. Did you mean the pork virus that has killed so many millions of swine in the US?

Offline MKing

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #119 on: April 20, 2014, 08:42:45 PM »
No collapse. No "hard landing" because China is not growing at the rate it was during the super-growth years.

I am sure China will do just fine here.



RE

of course they will. Once they figure out what Pittsburgh did...which looked very similar....the results of changes in behavior is only a change in behavior away. The Nike slogan wins again...as Pittsburgh certainly can attest.



Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
-Dalai Lama

 

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