AuthorTopic: Official Chinese Toast Thread  (Read 216289 times)

Offline RE

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China Stocks are Crashing
« Reply #195 on: May 29, 2015, 01:39:15 AM »
A21 will not be happy today.  :'(

RE

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-28/chinese-stocks-are-crashing

Chinese Stocks Are Crashing

Tyler Durden's picture



 

The Shanghai Composite has extended yesterday's losses and is now officially in "correction" - down over 11% from its highs yesterday.

This is the biggest 2-day drop since August 2009

The much-heralded Shenzhen Composite is also down over 11% from yesterday's highs...

 

Intraday, a small opening ramp has been demolsihed in Shenzhen, CHINEXT, and CSI-300...

 

*  *  *

This has all happened since Hanergy's CEO exposed the endgame of the biggest Ponzi market ever

Charts: Bloomberg

« Last Edit: May 29, 2015, 01:46:24 AM by RE »
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Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #196 on: May 29, 2015, 08:04:59 AM »

Bill Holter expresses things well:

Quote

http://www.jsmineset.com/2015/05/26/china-has-only-one-option/
 "China has built out their infrastructure and even “ghost cities” using credit.  Once the credit markets begin to default, they will be left with “stuff”, in place and will last for the next 50 to 100 years.  Roads, bridges, buildings, airports, ports, etc., you name it they have already built it.  And yes, their stock market will crash, their real estate market is already softening, in reverse and declining.  I am not saying it will be all rosy, to the contrary, there will be bankruptcies galore in China... with a caveat.  The “government” of China will go through this liquidation phase with the most gold in the world."  end quote


They will go through this liquidation phase with the most REAL ASSETS in the world, starting with the aforementioned roads, railways, buildings, ports, factories and so forth, and continuing with a massive amount of gold -- as Holter points out in this article, a bare minimum of 10,000 tons. (Yet another of their VERY SMART investments.)

And what will WE (the U.S.) go through this liquidation phase with? Why, with a handful of aging aircraft carriers and ICBMs, that's what. And crumbling infrastructure. And a massive, unsustainable medical/industrial complex. And drained gold reserves. And an obese and increasingly disabled population. And so forth.

Nothing that I've said should be construed as meaning that all will be smooth sailing for China/BRICs, or anyone. There is without doubt a crisis ahead, a "liquidation" as Holter put it, or a "reset" as others put it. It will not be pleasant for anyone. Everyone will take a hit, including China. However, my point has been, and remains, that it will NOT signal or initiate the collapse of industrial civilization and Malthusian dieoff. There will be a great moment of reckoning... and then life will go on, better in some places, worse in others. My bet is that it will be better in Eurasia, worse in the states. China and the BRICs will pick themselves up, dust themselves off, and carry on, and they have the REAL ASSETS with which to do so. We, on the other hand...

Offline alan2102

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Re: China Stocks are Crashing
« Reply #197 on: May 29, 2015, 08:57:37 AM »


A21 will not be happy today.  :'(
RE
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-28/chinese-stocks-are-crashing
Chinese Stocks Are Crashing

R.E., I'm DELIGHTED that the Chinese stock bubble is deflating.  I LOVE IT when bubbles deflate.  Shaking-out the excesses is a natural process. It creates the solid base in which real growth takes root.

Ten years from today, we'll be looking at a Chinese economy twice its present size.



Offline steve from virginia

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #198 on: May 29, 2015, 10:29:38 PM »
They (China) will go through this liquidation phase with the most REAL ASSETS in the world, starting with the aforementioned roads, railways, buildings, ports, factories and so forth, and continuing with a massive amount of gold -- as Holter points out in this article, a bare minimum of 10,000 tons. (Yet another of their VERY SMART investments.)

Assets are really liabilities. First, the Chinese cannot afford to use these things (or they would be using them now). If they cannot afford to use them now, they certainly won't be able to after they have thoroughly bankrupted themselves. 

Also, when a government holds gold it is different from when a citizen holds gold. A government is not a citizen, when it holds gold it makes itself in the image of a citizen and loses its natural place in the financial order as a consequence. It's like a government holding Picassos, instead of being the government it becomes a museum; a collector of nostalgia.

In industrialization there are no real assets, only fake ones. There is capital (non-renewable resources) and claims against it. All the claims are liabilities ... including labor ... this is what we are learning right now ... the hardest of all possible ways.

Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #199 on: May 30, 2015, 04:35:23 AM »
They (China) will go through this liquidation phase with the most REAL ASSETS in the world, starting with the aforementioned roads, railways, buildings, ports, factories and so forth, and continuing with a massive amount of gold -- as Holter points out in this article, a bare minimum of 10,000 tons. (Yet another of their VERY SMART investments.)

Assets are really liabilities. First, the Chinese cannot afford to use these things (or they would be using them now). If they cannot afford to use them now, they certainly won't be able to after they have thoroughly bankrupted themselves. 

In industrialization there are no real assets, only fake ones. There is capital (non-renewable resources) and claims against it. All the claims are liabilities ... including labor ... this is what we are learning right now ... the hardest of all possible ways.
I think the key point that Steve is skipping over here, because it is so obvious to him, is that all these "assets" increase the need for fossil fuels -- gasoline for the vehicles to drive on the roads, electricity for the factories, heat for the houses.

If the Chinese truly had been smart, they would have been investing massively in assets which do not require fossil fuels for their upkeep: passive solar houses, permaculture food production, manual workshops.  That no nation has does not bode well for the human race.
Making pigs fly is easy... that is, of course, after you have built the catapult....

Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #200 on: May 30, 2015, 12:52:49 PM »
Having new trains and fast trains save a lot of time and fuel. Not flying with its fuel use. Not sitting in traffic taking several hours to get across or out of a city and not breathing brown smog. With the ffuel use from millions of individual stop start traffic gridlock.
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Offline RE

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #201 on: May 30, 2015, 01:35:01 PM »
Having new trains and fast trains save a lot of time and fuel. Not flying with its fuel use. Not sitting in traffic taking several hours to get across or out of a city and not breathing brown smog. With the ffuel use from millions of individual stop start traffic gridlock.

Lots of fast electric trains require a lot of electrical generating capacity, which is coming from coal fired electric plants.  They want to switch over to Nuke Puke, but there are already questions about the design and safety systems of these plants.  China is not known for having a good record on safety or on waste issues or pollution issues.  What are they going to do with the spent fuel rods?

Besides that, they are building inter-city trains, not solving transportation problems within metro areas with light rail systems that have stops every mile or two.

RE
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Online Eddie

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #202 on: May 30, 2015, 01:40:58 PM »
What are they going to do with the spent fuel rods?

Temporarily store them in empty high-rise apartment buildings? Maybe in tunnels under the Olympic Stadium.
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Offline azozeo

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #203 on: May 30, 2015, 02:15:02 PM »
What are they going to do with the spent fuel rods?

Temporarily store them in empty high-rise apartment buildings? Maybe in tunnels under the Olympic Stadium.



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Offline azozeo

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread - Onkalo Finland Documentary
« Reply #204 on: May 30, 2015, 02:21:02 PM »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/gQ3dT7xcMgU&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/gQ3dT7xcMgU&fs=1</a>
I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world.
You don’t know what it is but its there, like a splinter in your mind

Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #205 on: May 30, 2015, 05:17:14 PM »


Assets are really liabilities. First, the Chinese cannot afford to use these things (or they would be using them now).

Sorry, Steve, but the Chinese are indeed using all of their roads, railways, buildings, ports, ships, factories, bridges, fiber-optic cabling, planes and airports, trucks, and so on. Most of this stuff is being used to capacity, and more is being built every week. Have you ever read anything about China?

I think the key point that Steve is skipping over here, because it is so obvious to him, is that all these "assets" increase the need for fossil fuels -- gasoline for the vehicles to drive on the roads, electricity for the factories, heat for the houses.

Thanks for that explanation. Otherwise, Steve's post is incoherent.

I can see that, for someone trapped in the FF-essentiality frame, all industrial paths lead to destruction if they use any FFs at all. Apparently Steve did not get the memo outlining how and why FFs are no longer essential for industrial function *per se*. They are only essential (because of installed equipment/vehicle bases, etc.) for the limited period of transition away from them. And because of the newly-compelling economics of renewables -- as has become evident over the last 5 years -- the transition away from FFs might take only 50 years, instead of 75-100 years. We'll see. The price of FFs is a large factor; PRAY that the price does not remain so freaking low.

If the Chinese truly had been smart, they would have been investing massively in assets which do not require fossil fuels for their upkeep: passive solar houses, permaculture food production, manual workshops.

Manual workshops INSTEAD of industrializing? That would be if you don't mind hundreds of millions of people living in awful poverty, with life expectancy of ~40 -- the way it was in the bad old days, before industrialization.

I agree that passive solar is a great technology and should be more widely used. And of course I am not opposed to manual workshops. Everyone should have access to a manual workshop. They are indispensable. But to suggest that the Chinese invest in those things INSTEAD of industrializing would be insane.

You write "If the Chinese truly had been smart", as though you are smart, and they were not. That's bizarre. They lifted 500 million people out of desperate poverty, and probably saved the same number from certain early death, over the last 40 years. That's SMART.  I would say roughly 500 million times smarter than the average peak oil doomer, who has likely saved zero lives and rescued zero people from poverty.

Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #206 on: May 30, 2015, 05:23:22 PM »
when a government holds gold it is different from when a citizen holds gold. A government is not a citizen, when it holds gold it makes itself in the image of a citizen and loses its natural place in the financial order as a consequence. It's like a government holding Picassos, instead of being the government it becomes a museum; a collector of nostalgia.

What in the hell are you talking about?

If banks ought  not hold gold, then what do you think they should hold? Sea shells?

Offline Karpatok

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #207 on: May 30, 2015, 05:28:58 PM »


Assets are really liabilities. First, the Chinese cannot afford to use these things (or they would be using them now).

Sorry, Steve, but the Chinese are indeed using all of their roads, railways, buildings, ports, ships, factories, bridges, fiber-optic cabling, planes and airports, trucks, and so on. Most of this stuff is being used to capacity, and more is being built every week. Have you ever read anything about China?

I think the key point that Steve is skipping over here, because it is so obvious to him, is that all these "assets" increase the need for fossil fuels -- gasoline for the vehicles to drive on the roads, electricity for the factories, heat for the houses.

Thanks for that explanation. Otherwise, Steve's post is incoherent.

I can see that, for someone trapped in the FF-essentiality frame, all industrial paths lead to destruction if they use any FFs at all. Apparently Steve did not get the memo outlining how and why FFs are no longer essential for industrial function *per se*. They are only essential (because of installed equipment/vehicle bases, etc.) for the limited period of transition away from them. And because of the newly-compelling economics of renewables -- as has become evident over the last 5 years -- the transition away from FFs might take only 50 years, instead of 75-100 years. We'll see. The price of FFs is a large factor; PRAY that the price does not remain so freaking low.

If the Chinese truly had been smart, they would have been investing massively in assets which do not require fossil fuels for their upkeep: passive solar houses, permaculture food production, manual workshops.

Manual workshops INSTEAD of industrializing? That would be if you don't mind hundreds of millions of people living in awful poverty, with life expectancy of ~40 -- the way it was in the bad old days, before industrialization.

I agree that passive solar is a great technology and should be more widely used. And of course I am not opposed to manual workshops. Everyone should have access to a manual workshop. They are indispensable. But to suggest that the Chinese invest in those things INSTEAD of industrializing would be insane.

You write "If the Chinese truly had been smart", as though you are smart, and they were not. That's bizarre. They lifted 500 million people out of desperate poverty, and probably saved the same number from certain early death, over the last 40 years. That's SMART.  I would say roughly 500 million times smarter than the average peak oil doomer, who has likely saved zero lives and rescued zero people from poverty.
   Thank you Alan. Very well said and argued.                             Karpatok

Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #208 on: May 30, 2015, 05:44:00 PM »
Having new trains and fast trains save a lot of time and fuel. Not flying with its fuel use. Not sitting in traffic taking several hours to get across or out of a city and not breathing brown smog. With the ffuel use from millions of individual stop start traffic gridlock.

Lots of fast electric trains require a lot of electrical generating capacity, which is coming from coal fired electric plants.
Yes, for now, and for some decades. But, thankfully, the coal binge is starting to plateau. See Greenpeace's very encouraging report on this:
http://www.greenpeace.org/eastasia/Global/eastasia/publications/reports/climate-energy/2014/The-End-of-Chinas-Coal-Boom-Briefing.pdf

Also, the economics of renewables are improving so rapidly that it will soon not make economic sense to generate electric power with coal.

Quote
They want to switch over to Nuke Puke, but there are already questions about the design and safety systems of these plants.  China is not known for having a good record on safety or on waste issues or pollution issues.  What are they going to do with the spent fuel rods?

Nuclear technology has improved dramatically over the last 30 years. Some of the new ones don't have fuel rods. I am not nearly as informed in this area as I should be, so I won't attempt to answer further. But I do recommend that you look into it, before passing judgment.  I would only add that, again, renewables economy is so excellent now that nuclear may soon be shelved for economic reasons, i.e. it may simply not make $$ sense anymore.

Quote
Besides that, they are building inter-city trains, not solving transportation problems within metro areas with light rail systems that have stops every mile or two.

Nonsense! They are aggressively building-out metro trains in all the major and most of the not-so-major cities.

I took a peak and found this (astounding, as usual):
http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20130903000001&cid=1502
 "The National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic planner, approved 4 trillion yuan (US$654 billion) investment in 37 local rail systems between 2008 and 2010 ....  The stimulus train pulled in again last year after the commission agreed to allocate another 8 trillion yuan (US$1.3 trillion) to 25 rail projects around the country."

$650 BILLION?!  $1.3 TRILLION?!

These are stupendous figures, especially as against the U.S.'s numbers which I'm sure are not even 1/10th that much.

Once again I am struck (needlessly, now) by the intelligence and forward-thinking of the Chinese. This is exactly the kind of stuff that NEEDS NEEDS NEEDS massive investment, just like that -- hundreds of billions, and trillions. This is how you build a civilization for long-term prosperity. We have a sterling example of the right thing to do, in front of our faces.

Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #209 on: May 30, 2015, 05:55:06 PM »
Another newsflash: China cuts energy intensity DRASTICALLY!

The world has cut its energy intensity by nearly 1% per year for the last 20 years; i.e. has reduced by that much the amount of energy needed to generate a unit of GDP. This is of course very good -- more output for  a lot less energy. The world is much more efficient than it was 20 years ago.  But China is  hitting the ball clean out of the park!  Nearly FIVE percent reduction in ONE year!  Amazing.

Quote

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/20/china-energy-idUSL4N0UZ1QJ20150120
Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:34pm EST
China cuts energy intensity by 4.8 pct in 2014
BEIJING
  China beat a key energy efficiency target in 2014, cutting its energy intensity by 4.8 percent from a year earlier, the State Council said on Tuesday, as it tries to reduce pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.
 The government had aimed for a 3.9 percent cut in energy intensity after a 3.7 percent drop in 2013 in order to meet its target of cutting energy intensity to 16 percent below 2010 levels by 2015.

 

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