AuthorTopic: Official Chinese Toast Thread  (Read 226093 times)

Offline Karpatok

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #210 on: May 30, 2015, 06:42:57 PM »
Another newsflash: China cuts energy intensity DRASTICALLY!

The world has cut its energy intensity by nearly 1% per year for the last 20 years; i.e. has reduced by that much the amount of energy needed to generate a unit of GDP. This is of course very good -- more output for  a lot less energy. The world is much more efficient than it was 20 years ago.  But China is  hitting the ball clean out of the park!  Nearly FIVE percent reduction in ONE year!  Amazing.

Quote

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/20/china-energy-idUSL4N0UZ1QJ20150120
Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:34pm EST
China cuts energy intensity by 4.8 pct in 2014
BEIJING
  China beat a key energy efficiency target in 2014, cutting its energy intensity by 4.8 percent from a year earlier, the State Council said on Tuesday, as it tries to reduce pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.
 The government had aimed for a 3.9 percent cut in energy intensity after a 3.7 percent drop in 2013 in order to meet its target of cutting energy intensity to 16 percent below 2010 levels by 2015.
  Again Alan, Kudos to you for your expertise. You and Snowleopard could make a really mentally healthy team at getting out some good news for a change. Thanks so much for your well said words, dimming the clapper of the death knell.    Karpatok

Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #211 on: May 30, 2015, 06:52:12 PM »
Another newsflash: China cuts energy intensity DRASTICALLY!

The world has cut its energy intensity by nearly 1% per year for the last 20 years; i.e. has reduced by that much the amount of energy needed to generate a unit of GDP. This is of course very good -- more output for  a lot less energy. The world is much more efficient than it was 20 years ago.  But China is  hitting the ball clean out of the park!  Nearly FIVE percent reduction in ONE year!  Amazing.

Quote

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/20/china-energy-idUSL4N0UZ1QJ20150120
Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:34pm EST
China cuts energy intensity by 4.8 pct in 2014
BEIJING
  China beat a key energy efficiency target in 2014, cutting its energy intensity by 4.8 percent from a year earlier, the State Council said on Tuesday, as it tries to reduce pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.
 The government had aimed for a 3.9 percent cut in energy intensity after a 3.7 percent drop in 2013 in order to meet its target of cutting energy intensity to 16 percent below 2010 levels by 2015.

Also they have fast ferries that bypass land altogether although the crowding and lining up like livestock getting on and off is not nice. I rode one that must have been doing 200mph barely skimming the water, and i wondered why we dont have them.

No doubt  the 21st c goes to china as the 20th went to the us,  but only if all their supply chains ate not interrupted which means there has to be stability on all the countries they take food water and fuels resources from. Thats far from guaranteed As the locals will demand the food and water should be used for domestic needs if they have no surplus. china may have got to the party too late, time will tell.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2015, 06:56:43 PM by Uncle Bob »
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Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #212 on: May 31, 2015, 05:18:39 AM »

No doubt  the 21st c goes to china as the 20th went to the us,
Bingo!
19th C - Britain
20th C - U.S.
21st C - China
22nd C - who knows? But my wild guess would be Africa

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but only if all their supply chains ate not interrupted which means there has to be stability on all the countries they take food water and fuels resources from.
... and they are busily BUYING that stability. A little money goes a long way. A lot of money goes even farther. You've heard about China's pledge of $4 TRILLION to support development of its neighbors?

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Thats far from guaranteed As the locals will demand the food and water should be used for domestic needs if they have no surplus. china may have got to the party too late, time will tell.
Nothing is guaranteed, but some things are likely. Water resources are an issue, but that issue can and will be addressed in several ways.  Baikal is 20% of the world's fresh water, waiting to be tapped. The Ob and other northern rivers dump into the arctic sea; this water could be used. Conservation offers huge benefits. And so on. Also, don't forget desalination -- which (I say at the risk of redundancy) becomes viable soon because of the new favorable economics of renewables. Dirt-cheap solar panels that don't have to be replaced in less than 50 years (delivering power IN EXCESS of energy cost for 47+ of those years) can desalinate a lot of water.

PS: forgot: a lot depends on the outcome of China's extensive afforestation/reforestation projects, e.g. the Great Green Wall project which I documented a few years ago on the China Potpourri thread. These projects will have a big impact on water, as trees are natural humidifiers and rain-makers, and usually function to preserve soil water. China's ambitious projects are (so far) partly successful, and partly failed; it is a mixed bag. We will see how smart they are in correcting the mistakes of the past and turning those failures into successes, over the next 30 years. A little birdie tells me that they are plenty smart enough to learn and correct course -- but that birdie COULD be wrong, I admit.   ;)
« Last Edit: May 31, 2015, 06:25:03 AM by alan2102 »

Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #213 on: May 31, 2015, 08:48:57 AM »
From up thread, near bottom of page 14:


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they are building inter-city trains, not solving transportation problems within metro areas with light rail systems that have stops every mile or two.

Nonsense! They are aggressively building-out metro trains in all the major and most of the not-so-major cities.

I took a peak and found this (astounding, as usual):
http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20130903000001&cid=1502
 "The National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic planner, approved 4 trillion yuan (US$654 billion) investment in 37 local rail systems between 2008 and 2010 ....  The stimulus train pulled in again last year after the commission agreed to allocate another 8 trillion yuan (US$1.3 trillion) to 25 rail projects around the country."

$650 BILLION?!  $1.3 TRILLION?!

These are stupendous figures, especially as against the U.S.'s numbers which I'm sure are not even 1/10th that much.

Once again I am struck (needlessly, now) by the intelligence and forward-thinking of the Chinese. This is exactly the kind of stuff that NEEDS NEEDS NEEDS massive investment, just like that -- hundreds of billions, and trillions. This is how you build a civilization for long-term prosperity. We have a sterling example of the right thing to do, in front of our faces.

I decided to do a brief fact-check re "the U.S.'s numbers ... I'm sure are not even 1/10th that much."

here:
http://www.downsizinggovernment.org/transportation/urban-transit
"The Department of Transportation's Federal Transit Administration has an annual budget of more than $10 billion, nearly all of which is spent on subsidies to state and local governments.2 In addition, the economic stimulus bill of 2009 added a further $8 billion in subsidies over a period of years.3 Through these subsidies and related regulations, federal policymakers play a major role in shaping urban transportation choices."

Wow! A whopping TEN billion! Plus few billion more, dribbled out over years. I'm blown away!  Blown away by the laughable stinginess of it, that is. A trifling 10-12 billion per year. That's -- what? -- about TWO PERCENT of the aforementioned Chinese 650 billion, and a negligible percent of the 1.3 trillion.

Is anyone surprised?

All the more amusing: I got these figures from a Cato Institute writeup, the purpose of which is to denounce federal/government spending for mass transit! Their purpose is to make spending look WAY TOO HIGH!  Can you believe that?  To them, the 10-12 billion is far too much. We've got to slash that down to 5 billion! or 2 billion! or better yet ZERO!

The Cato libertoons write: "Transit funding is costly to taxpayers, and it is not a proper function of the federal government.... The federal government should end its transit subsidies, and American cities should focus on more economically sound and consumer-driven approaches to easing congestion."  Uh huh. "More economically sound and consumer-driven", meaning funded by massively subsidized oil- and auto-related activity, including long-sunk costs running into many $trillions.

Actually, the libertoons make some decent arguments, but most of them depend on the fact that the U.S. made the disastrously-wrong decision, early on, to heavily support oil/autos, and now we are in a situation where it may not make sense to try to change course. You cannot, they say, retrofit low-density urban areas (i.e. insanely auto-dependent urban areas) with rail systems and expect the economics to make sense. Yeah, I get that. What THEY don't get, or don't want to admit, is the underlying insanity, and the way in which the present structure of urban areas was shaped by massive subsidization of the oil/auto sector.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2015, 08:55:28 AM by alan2102 »

Offline Eddie

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #214 on: May 31, 2015, 09:51:54 AM »
22nd C - who knows? But my wild guess would be Africa

Try Russia. Maybe Antarctica.

I got these figures from a Cato Institute writeup, the purpose of which is to denounce federal/government spending for mass transit! Their purpose is to make spending look WAY TOO HIGH!  Can you believe that?  To them, the 10-12 billion is far too much. We've got to slash that down to 5 billion! or 2 billion! or better yet ZERO!

Unfortunately, these people are running the country.

You cannot, they say, retrofit low-density urban areas (i.e. insanely auto-dependent urban areas) with rail systems and expect the economics to make sense. Yeah, I get that. What THEY don't get, or don't want to admit, is the underlying insanity, and the way in which the present structure of urban areas was shaped by massive subsidization of the oil/auto sector.

Not even true. You can retrofit anything if the transportation is there first.

I think you make some cogent arguments about China, but China's leadership suffers from the same unlimited growth paradigm that got all the other empires in trouble. When they figure out how to prosper in a zero-growth economy I'll be impressed a lot more than I am now.
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Offline steve from virginia

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #215 on: May 31, 2015, 11:36:50 AM »
Quote

Sorry, Steve, but the Chinese are indeed using all of their roads, railways, buildings, ports, ships, factories, bridges, fiber-optic cabling, planes and airports, trucks, and so on. Most of this stuff is being used to capacity, and more is being built every week. Have you ever read anything about China?

http://www.wsj.com/articles/in-china-beijing-fights-losing-battle-to-rein-in-factory-production-1405477804

http://marketrealist.com/2015/01/massive-overcapacity-plague-steel-industry-2015/

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4f232cdc-cf45-11e1-bfd9-00144feabdc0.html

http://www.wsj.com/articles/more-than-1-in-5-homes-in-chinese-cities-are-empty-survey-says-1402484499

http://www.joc.com/port-news/big-ships-mean-big-investment-china%E2%80%99s-oversupplied-port-capacity-moody%E2%80%99s-says_20150210.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/28/china-steel-idUSL3N0WU02W20150328

Etc. etc. etc.

All industrialized countries have excess capacity, this is added to China's. Also, countries have currency advantage over (dollar-pegged) yuan.

How China economy actually works:

http://www.economic-undertow.com/2014/02/15/debtonomics-currency-crisis-3/

Quote
I think the key point that Steve is skipping over here, because it is so obvious to him, is that all these "assets" increase the need for fossil fuels -- gasoline for the vehicles to drive on the roads, electricity for the factories, heat for the houses.


Thanks for that explanation. Otherwise, Steve's post is incoherent.

Assets offer a real return over time. Industrial 'assets' offer nothing but symbolic 'worth' as measured by way of constantly inflated 'money-price'. As such, industries do not produce assets nor can they themselves BE assets, instead they are fashionable symbols. Keep in mind, should the 'money-prices' fail to inflate the assets are not liabilities either; they are worthless.

Industries don't produce a return, they are perpetually underwater, they require an ongoing debt subsidy. That this is so is self-evident: if any industry could pay for itself it would do so, there would be no debts because they would be paid by that one productive industry. Afterward, the same industry would make everyone on the planet rich.

This does not happen, the world is inundated with debts, the associated obligations are not distributed equally:

http://www.amazon.com/Capital-Twenty-First-Century-Thomas-Piketty/dp/1491534656

Industry cannot retire its own debts or make everyone rich: (debt-subsidized) industries only replace human labor with machines; the machines themselves cannot 'earn' anything, they cannot 'buy' the items that they reproduce. Only humans (by choice) can do so. 


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If the Chinese truly had been smart, they would have been investing massively in assets which do not require fossil fuels for their upkeep: passive solar houses, permaculture food production, manual workshops.


Manual workshops INSTEAD of industrializing? That would be if you don't mind hundreds of millions of people living in awful poverty, with life expectancy of ~40 -- the way it was in the bad old days, before industrialization.

More people live in poverty now than at any time in history ... where did China succeed? A handful of Chinese are stupendously rich, other Chinese live like they did 100 years ago.

Quote
I agree that passive solar is a great technology and should be more widely used. And of course I am not opposed to manual workshops. Everyone should have access to a manual workshop. They are indispensable. But to suggest that the Chinese invest in those things INSTEAD of industrializing would be insane.

You write "If the Chinese truly had been smart", as though you are smart, and they were not. That's bizarre. They lifted 500 million people out of desperate poverty, and probably saved the same number from certain early death, over the last 40 years. That's SMART.  I would say roughly 500 million times smarter than the average peak oil doomer, who has likely saved zero lives and rescued zero people from poverty.

There is plenty of propaganda regarding how people lived before modernity, no doubt people lived as well or better before. China's breakdown was outcome of recurring waves of European- then Japanese invasion, war and conquest. China has always been productive/fertile and the Chinese intelligent and creative. Chinese clearly lived prosperously prior to industrialization, which was introduced by European colonialist regimes, btw.

It's too soon to determine outcomes but one thing to keep in mind: agriculture is foundation of any nation not industry:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/chinas-choice/2014/apr/18/china-one-fifth-farmland-soil-pollution
« Last Edit: May 31, 2015, 02:23:48 PM by steve from virginia »

Offline RE

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Official Chinese Toast: Delusions of Techno-Cornucopians
« Reply #216 on: May 31, 2015, 02:51:16 PM »

There is plenty of propaganda regarding how people lived before modernity, no doubt people lived as well or better before. China's breakdown was outcome of European- then Japanese invasion, war and conquest. China has always been productive/fertile and the Chinese intelligent and creative. Chinese clearly lived prosperously prior to industrialization, which was introduced by European colonialist regimes, btw.

It's too soon to determine outcomes but one thing to keep in mind: agriculture is foundation of any nation not industry:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/chinas-choice/2014/apr/18/china-one-fifth-farmland-soil-pollution

You can forget trying to convince A21 of any of this SfV, besides being an unquenchable China Bull he's also a techno-cornucopian.  He thinks the Chinese can solve their water problems with desalinization powered by solar panels!  ::)

A Chinese stock market crash won't phase him at all, it's just a shakeout on the way to greater glory!  A revolution overthrowing the current Goobermint wouldn't phase him either, just a reorganization.

He ignores the fact the Chinese in Beijing ride their bicycles wearing air filtration masks because the air is so bad on days the wind is blowing the wrong way.  No problem they can't solve with a techno-fix, they'll build "clean" Thorium based Nuke Puke facilities!

He ignores the fact that the companies producing those cheap Solar PV panels cook their books and it's all funded on debt, and they are all going broke anyhow.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-10-21/ldk-solar-affiliates-file-for-u-s-bankuptcy-protection
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-02-22/bankrupt-solar-panel-maker-suntech-seeks-protection-in-u-s-1-
http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2013/04/09/solar-companies-continue-to-go-bankrupt/

He ignores the fact the Chinese have a demographic nightmare on the horizon as a result of the 1 child policy.

None of this phases A21 at all.  He has a firm belief in China as the next World Superpower.  After that it's going to be Africa!  Yes, the place with non-stop civil wars and genocide, epidemics of HIV and Ebola will rise from the ashes in another century to overtake China!  It's a perpetual motion machine of Empires in A21's perception.  History will repeat itself endlessly this way.

If you do not grasp that all Empires have been built on continuously extracting more energy from the Earth, and that such copious quantities of energy necessary to build an empire and hold it together are rapidly dwindling away, then it is possible to believe in this perpetual motion machine of Empire.  If you believe that Thorium Nuke Plants will be built by the Chinese (and after that Cold Fusion plants too!) to replace their Coal fired electric generating capacity, it's possible to believe in the perpetual motion machine of Empire.  This is the type of argument A21 makes.

It's not a lot different than the arguments Moriarty (MKing) makes about NG and Solar as a means to maintain the techno-industrial lifestyle, just with a China Bull spin to it.  It's delusionary thinking by people who cannot accept the idea that this all is coming to an end now.

RE
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Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #217 on: May 31, 2015, 09:30:36 PM »
All industrialized countries have excess capacity, this is added to China's.
Yes, China has had "excess capacity" for years. And has had "ghost cities" for years. And yet, the "excess capacity" strangely, magically gets soaked-up, and the factories do NOT close down, the ships do NOT get docked, the airports do NOT close down, etc., etc. They keep on using the things that you say they are not using. And the "ghost cities" FILL UP. In other words, they chug along. The deflationary meltdown does NOT happen.

Your original statement, to which I was responding, was this: "Assets are really liabilities. First, the Chinese cannot afford to use these things (or they would be using them now)." That's wrong. That's WILDLY wrong.

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Assets offer a real return over time. Industrial 'assets' offer nothing but symbolic 'worth' as measured by way of constantly inflated 'money-price'.
Industry provides everything that you and I are now eating, wearing, living in, typing on, driving/riding in or on, etc., etc. EVERYTHING. Or almost everything. Unless you are the one in a million who: 1) grows all his own food, 2) makes all his own clothing from scratch (including making the thread and yarn from scratch), 3) builds his own house, 4) etc, etc.

You think that the food you eat, the computer that you use, the house that you occupy, etc. have only "symbolic worth" as opposed to REAL worth? They are only abstractions to you, without real value?

That's crazy-talk.

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Industries don't produce a return, they are perpetually underwater, they require an ongoing debt subsidy.
More crazy-talk. They produce enormous returns WHICH YOU ARE ENJOYING THIS VERY MOMENT, in your lighted, heated, comfortable home, wearing comfortable clothing, typing on an incredibly powerful modern computing/communications device, etc., etc.

In other words, they produce huge use-value returns which you seem not to want to consider. You want to pretend that the only thing that exists is money, and debts or payback in money terms. That's not the case.

As far as the money terms go: yes, of course there are debts, which are constantly being paid back, retired, with interest. Often new debts are incurred, and then THEY are paid back, with interest. What of it?

There are a few entities, e.g. the U.S. government, that appear to have taken on more debt than they can ever pay back. That's bad, but it has nothing to do with whether or not industry is worthwhile. Even if all industries could never pay back their debts, they are still clearly worthwhile. They are the basis of all our great wealth. That includes you, personally: your great wealth is the product of industry.

If all industries could never pay back their debts, and the creditors started getting nervous, then we would have to cut a new deal with the creditors to make it worth their while to continue fronting the dough. Like, say, somewhat higher interest rates. It would be worth every penny, given how much benefit we have derived from industry. Without industry we would all still be poor, like we all were 500 years ago.

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Afterward, the same industry would make everyone on the planet rich.
Industry HAS made masses of people rich -- not everyone on the planet, but at least 2/3rds of us. And the remaining 1/3 is dwindling (i.e. are on their way to becoming rich, too).

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This does not happen,
This DOES happen. Manifestly. Just open your eyes and look.

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the world is inundated with debts, the associated obligations are not distributed equally
Non-equal distribution of things is of course true. I never suggested otherwise. That is a different issue. But even with our present system of dreadfully UNequal distribution, the majority of us are rich. This cannot be denied.

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Industry cannot retire its own debts or make everyone rich
Industry has made (past tense) several billion people rich -- richer than the nobility of, say, the year 1400.

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More people live in poverty now than at any time in history
That may be true in terms of absolute numbers, because of population growth. But in relative terms -- i.e. percentage of population affected -- poverty has fallen off dramatically over the last 30 years. I say that your claim "MAY be true" in terms of absolute numbers, but I'm not sure. It might be untrue. One would have to actually go back and look at the numbers, which I doubt that you have done. But, if it is true that "more people [in absolute terms] live in poverty now than at any time in history", it is because  more people  ARE ALIVE now than at any time in history.

Global poverty reduction is a big story, e.g.:
Quote

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/mar/17/aid-trade-reduce-acute-poverty
World poverty is shrinking rapidly, new index reveals
Tracy McVeigh
Saturday 16 March 2013
Some of the poorest people in the world are becoming significantly less poor, according to a groundbreaking academic study which has taken a new approach to measuring deprivation. The report, by Oxford University's poverty and human development initiative, predicts that countries among the most impoverished in the world could see acute poverty eradicated within 20 years if they continue at present rates.
[snip]
The study comes after the UN's latest development report published last week which stated that poverty reduction drives in the developing world were exceeding all expectations. It says: "The world is witnessing a epochal 'global rebalancing' with higher growth in at least 40 poor countries helping lift hundreds of millions out of poverty and into a new 'global middle class'. Never in history have the living conditions and prospects of so many people changed so dramatically and so fast."
The brighter global picture is the result of international and national aid and development projects investing in schools, health clinics, housing, infrastructure and improved access to water.
Yep! It is a great story. I've got some better information about it on my other computer. I'll try to pull that out and post it.

Note that the "schools, health clinics, housing, infrastructure and improved access to water" mentioned above are all, or mostly, products of INDUSTRIALIZATION, either directly or indirectly. Industry pays for itself over and over, in greater wealth, greater health, greater life expectancy, greater education, and other advantages, for billions of people.  No intelligent person who is even foggily aware of what is happening in the world can deny this.

These are tough times for doomers. On so many fronts, (NOT all fronts, but many), things are getting better and better. Very tough to square this with the gloom and doom narrative. Better to just deny it all!

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... where did China succeed?
Are you joking? China was responsible for at least 2/3rds of the huge reduction in global poverty over the last 30 years. China has been spectacularly successful in reducing poverty. It is one of the great human success stories of all time. Nothing else even comes close.

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A handful of Chinese are stupendously rich, other Chinese live like they did 100 years ago.
Steve, this is wildly wrong. The majority of Chinese live NOTHING like they did 100 years ago. If they did, then MOST OF THE 1.3 BILLION CHINESE NOW LIVING WOULD BE DEAD. Life expectancy in China is now 75 years -- nearly DOUBLE what it was 100 years ago, with all that that implies about quality of life. At least 500 million people have been saved from certain early death by the Chinese leadership over the last half-century. And a great many of them would have been UGLY deaths -- in agony, in famishment, in feverish throes of infection, etc.

At least that many have been saved from desperate poverty; vis:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_China  --  "Between 1981 and 2008, the proportion of China's population living on less than $1.25/day is estimated to have fallen from 85% to 13.1%, meaning that roughly 600 million people were taken out of poverty.[3][7]"

China still has its problems with poverty and most certainly with inequality. But to portray it as you have -- a tiny few super-rich, and everyone else a peasant same as a century ago -- no, that is wrong, wildly wrong. China now has a very large middle class -- larger in absolute terms than the U.S. middle class.

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Chinese clearly lived prosperously prior to industrialization
Prior to industrialization, life expectancy for the mass of Chinese was  ~40. It was that low because of chronic malnutrition, chronic infection and infestation, dirty drinking water, no public health infrastructure, no medical care, no education, and on and on. Very "prosperous", yes!

Seriously, Steve: you might want to read some articles, or a book or two, about China sometime. Even just the wikipedia writeups are a great start. Be sure to include the ones about demographics, health, public health, and so on. You might find it interesting.

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It's too soon to determine outcomes but one thing to keep in mind: agriculture is foundation of any nation not industry:
theguardian.com ... china-one-fifth-farmland-soil-pollution
Agriculture is key, no doubt.

As for China's contaminated soils: Welcome to late industrialism 1.0! That's the kind of thing that happens in the early to mid phases of development. It happened to the U.S. -- more in the area of polluted water and air. But then something funny happened: we cleaned it up. (A real accomplishment, btw, and I give the U.S. credit for that.) And China will clean up its act, as well. You have to have achieved a certain level of development before you can clean up the mess from earlier levels. The specifics of China's cleanup (heavy metals) will involve phytoremediation with accumulator plant species, and allied techniques. It is all doable, and they have the energy and ambition required to do it.




« Last Edit: June 01, 2015, 05:18:47 AM by alan2102 »

Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast: Delusions of Techno-Cornucopians
« Reply #218 on: June 01, 2015, 06:36:40 AM »
You can forget trying to convince A21 of any of this SfV, besides being an unquenchable China Bull he's also a techno-cornucopian.
That's right. You just CANNOT talk doom-sense into me. I'm stubbornly resistant, swayed as I am by the facts of the situation.

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He thinks the Chinese can solve their water problems with desalinization powered by solar panels!  ::)
Yes, soon, as the economics of renewables improve. We might already be there, I'm not sure. The Saudis are already doing it (but of course they have the best solar pv economics of anyone, i.e. intense sunshine year-round):

http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/saudis-build-worlds-first-large-scale-solar-powered-desalination-plant-82903
Saudis to build world’s first large scale solar powered desalination plant - By Giles Parkinson on 22 January 2015

China and others will be next. Dirt-cheap renewable energy solves all kinds of problems!

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A Chinese stock market crash won't phase him at all, it's just a shakeout on the way to greater glory!
That's exactly right. That's what it is. Just a blip in the big picture. Stock markets crash all the time... and then roar back. Economies grind on and end up bigger than ever.

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A revolution overthrowing the current Goobermint wouldn't phase him either, just a reorganization.
It would phase me a little, but not much. The fundamentals impelling growth and development and indeed dominance of China are too strong to be held up for long by something like that.

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He ignores the fact the Chinese in Beijing ride their bicycles wearing air filtration masks because the air is so bad on days the wind is blowing the wrong way.  No problem they can't solve with a techno-fix, they'll build "clean" Thorium based Nuke Puke facilities!
No, I don't ignore that, but I view it in perspective. It is a correctable problem, and it will be corrected -- like the U.S. solved its air pollution problems for the most part (problems which were TERRIBLE 60 years ago).

You're right: techno-fixes will solve these problems.

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He ignores the fact that the companies producing those cheap Solar PV panels cook their books and it's all funded on debt, and they are all going broke anyhow.

[snipped: gaggle of urls re bankrupt solar pv companies]

R.E., you're such a hoot!

You're right, of course: the solar PV industry has had some major bankruptcies. It has been a rough business. You know why? Because of the fabulous runaway technical/production success of the solar PV industry! Due to greatly improved production techniques and economies of scale, the cost and price of panels has basically fallen off a cliff over the last 4 years. The result has been some manufacturers coming under great pressure, and some of them failing. It does not mean that solar PV is in trouble; it means the OPPOSITE of that.

vis:

Quote

http://breakingenergy.com/2015/05/11/thin-film-solar-cell-industry-in-transition-knockout-phase-is-over-profitability-and-vertical-integration-next/
Thin Film Solar Cell Industry in Transition: Knockout Phase is Over – Profitability and Vertical Integration Next
By Sven Lindström on May 11, 2015 at 11:00 AM
Prices of solar cells and solar panels have fallen dramatically over the last few years. This (and state subsidies) has been good for the advancement of this amazing renewable energy source, and solar energy can today be seen as an established energy source, reliable and well distributed, cost competitive with traditional non-renewable energy sources and with a very healthy annual growth in installed solar panels.
Annual solar cell installations have rocketed from less than 5,000 MW per annum before 2008 to around 40,000 MW per year today and still increasing rapidly. The market is especially strong in Japan, China, the US and Great Britain.
However, the flip side of these price reductions in solar cells and solar panels has been a consolidation, or rather a knockout, amongst suppliers of solar cells and solar panels. They have had a very difficult time making profits and most solar cell manufacturers have gone bankrupt, ceased production, been sold off or rescued.

Right. Victims of the  fabulous technical success of their industry.

Take another look: "Annual solar cell installations have rocketed from less than 5,000 MW per annum before 2008 to around 40,000 MW per year today and still increasing rapidly."  5,000 to 40,000 in 7 years means DOUBLING in slightly over 2 years. That is a mind-blowing rate of growth. That's a Moores-Law-type rate of growth. At that rate we could go 100% solar inside of a couple decades. Of course, that nosebleed rate will not be sustained, quite, because it would be impossible as the doublings get bigger. Still, it is a terrific rate of growth, and bodes well. Solar panels are far cheaper than they were 5 years ago, and this is making other energy sources (FFs) look bad. Fossil fuels will soon be uneconomic for most applications.

Quote
He ignores the fact the Chinese have a demographic nightmare on the horizon as a result of the 1 child policy.
Meaning what? A demographic nightmare... of underpopulation? Or are you referring to unmarried young men?

Quote
None of this phases A21 at all.  He has a firm belief in China as the next World Superpower.
You're right: Doesn't phase me much. The facts compel the conclusion that China will rise further and become at  minimum the dominant regional power, possibly a world superpower.

Quote
After that it's going to be Africa!
Now, R.E., be fair! I said "who knows?" who comes after China, and I said that Africa was my WILD GUESS. It remains my wild guess.

Quote
Yes, the place with non-stop civil wars and genocide, epidemics of HIV and Ebola will rise from the ashes in another century to overtake China! 
That's right, it might. Just like China rose from comparable ashes a century ago. The reason I say this is because Africa is so fantastically rich in natural resources and agricultural potential -- almost all totally untapped. Also, the climate is favorable for renewable energy production (solar), and they have vast water resources. Also, some of the fastest growing economies right now are in Africa. It remains a dark horse, and a wild guess for me, but it could happen. We'll see. China is investing a lot in Africa, and that will help also.

Quote
It's a perpetual motion machine of Empires in A21's perception.  History will repeat itself endlessly this way.
Pretty much, yeah. However, I see "empire" as morphing somewhat in definition. China is leading the way in this. The empires of the distant past were incredibly brutal, genocidal beasts. The empires of the recent past (Britain, U.S.) were bloody and spottily brutal -- bad, but not as bad as those of the distant past. And China seems to have taken the thing a further step up in the moral sphere. The Chinese have achieved everything they have achieved almost without any classical empire-like imperialistic adventurism. There have been no mass invasions, enslavements, pillaging, etc. Aside from their behavior toward Tibet, it has been a peaceful rise. They have a growing military sector, but it is not prominent in their overall scheme, i.e. spending on other sectors is vastly higher. Yes, I know that China has its civil and human rights issues; I'm not blind to that. I am looking at the BIG picture, relative to empires of past centuries. Overall, it has been pretty darn peaceful and benign.

The mongols (say) would move in and slaughter a half-million residents in a single day; meanwhile, the modern Chinese state has a few hundred political dissidents in halfway-humane prisons. Both are bad, but do you see the difference? I call it an improvement.

So yes, history will continue to repeat itself -- but perhaps with new twists. Perhaps MLK was right when he said that "the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice", i.e. things are getting better and better, albeit slowly.

Quote
If you do not grasp that all Empires have been built on continuously extracting more energy from the Earth, and that such copious quantities of energy necessary to build an empire and hold it together are rapidly dwindling away, then it is possible to believe in this perpetual motion machine of Empire.
I fully grasp what you are saying. You are correct, historically. But things are now changing. We ARE now on the verge of creating a sort of perpetual motion machine with respect to energy, i.e. renewable energy is becoming cheap enough to allow the entire loop to be closed with renewable energy. It is now just a matter of incremental buildout. Power generated WITHOUT (or with only trace) depletion of non-renewable resources can be used to generate still more power-generating devices, and so on. It really is a game-changer, and we are at the threshold of it, right now. The era of extractive empire and ruinous exploitation of non-renewable resources is coming to a close, in this century.

Quote
  If you believe that Thorium Nuke Plants will be built by the Chinese (and after that Cold Fusion plants too!) to replace their Coal fired electric generating capacity, it's possible to believe in the perpetual motion machine of Empire.  This is the type of argument A21 makes.
It won't take thorium nuke plants, though they might be part of the mix for a while. Cold fusion: yeah, that too! Have you kept up with developments in that area? Remarkable. But even without cold fusion, things are on the right trajectory.  The perpetual motion machine of which you speak is, energetically, very much in the cards in the mid-term.

Quote
It's not a lot different than the arguments Moriarty (MKing) makes about NG and Solar as a means to maintain the techno-industrial lifestyle, just with a China Bull spin to it.  It's delusionary thinking by people who cannot accept the idea that this all is coming to an end now.
Once again, you are right. I am caught in self-deluded cornucopian/growth mania. I'm a hopeless case, R.E. You may as well give up on me.

People like me simply CANNOT ACCEPT that this is ALL COMING TO AN END, RIGHT NOW. So it was written in the Holy Scripture of dieoff.com, and so it MUST COME TO PASS.
« Last Edit: June 01, 2015, 07:11:59 AM by alan2102 »

Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #219 on: June 01, 2015, 06:45:01 AM »
  Again Alan, Kudos to you for your expertise. You and Snowleopard could make a really mentally healthy team at getting out some good news for a change. Thanks so much for your well said words, dimming the clapper of the death knell.    Karpatok

Karpatok, you need to have a one-on-one with R.E., to restore your fragile doomfaith and reinstate yourself as member in good standing of the Church of HansoNihilism. And you need to stop listening to wicked voices of deception like that cornucopian zealot alan2102.

Offline RE

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Re: Official Chinese Toast: Delusions of Techno-Cornucopians
« Reply #220 on: June 01, 2015, 06:47:37 AM »


You can forget trying to convince A21 of any of this SfV, besides being an unquenchable China Bull he's also a techno-cornucopian.
That's right. You just CANNOT talk doom-sense into me. I'm stubbornly resistant, swayed as I am by the facts of the situation.

Quote
He thinks the Chinese can solve their water problems with desalinization powered by solar panels!  ::)
Yes, soon, as the economics of renewables improve. We might already be there, I'm not sure. The Saudis are already doing it (but of course they have the best solar pv economics of anyone, i.e. intense sunshine year-round):

http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/saudis-build-worlds-first-large-scale-solar-powered-desalination-plant-82903
Saudis to build world’s first large scale solar powered desalination plant - By Giles Parkinson on 22 January 2015

China and others will be next. Dirt-cheap renewable energy solves all kinds of problems!

Quote
A Chinese stock market crash won't phase him at all, it's just a shakeout on the way to greater glory!
That's exactly right. That's what it is. Just a blip in the big picture. Stock markets crash all the time... and then roar back. Economies grind on and end up bigger than ever.

Quote
A revolution overthrowing the current Goobermint wouldn't phase him either, just a reorganization.
It would phase me a little, but not much. The fundamentals impelling growth and development and indeed dominance of China are too strong to be held up for long by something like that.

Quote
He ignores the fact the Chinese in Beijing ride their bicycles wearing air filtration masks because the air is so bad on days the wind is blowing the wrong way.  No problem they can't solve with a techno-fix, they'll build "clean" Thorium based Nuke Puke facilities!
No, I don't ignore that, but I view it in perspective. It is a correctable problem, and it will be corrected -- like the U.S. solved its air pollution problems for the most part (problems which were TERRIBLE 60 years ago).

You're right: techno-fixes will solve these problems.

Quote
He ignores the fact that the companies producing those cheap Solar PV panels cook their books and it's all funded on debt, and they are all going broke anyhow.

[snipped: gaggle of urls re bankrupt solar pv companies]

R.E., you're such a hoot!

You're right, of course: the solar PV industry has had some major bankruptcies. It has been a rough business. You know why? Because of the fabulous runaway technical/production success of the solar PV industry! The cost of panels has basically fallen off a cliff over the last 4 years. The result has been some manufacturers coming under great pressure, and some of them failing. It does not mean that solar PV is in trouble; it means the OPPOSITE of that.

vis:

Quote

http://breakingenergy.com/2015/05/11/thin-film-solar-cell-industry-in-transition-knockout-phase-is-over-profitability-and-vertical-integration-next/
Thin Film Solar Cell Industry in Transition: Knockout Phase is Over – Profitability and Vertical Integration Next
By Sven Lindström on May 11, 2015 at 11:00 AM
Prices of solar cells and solar panels have fallen dramatically over the last few years. This (and state subsidies) has been good for the advancement of this amazing renewable energy source, and solar energy can today be seen as an established energy source, reliable and well distributed, cost competitive with traditional non-renewable energy sources and with a very healthy annual growth in installed solar panels.
Annual solar cell installations have rocketed from less than 5,000 MW per annum before 2008 to around 40,000 MW per year today and still increasing rapidly. The market is especially strong in Japan, China, the US and Great Britain.
However, the flip side of these price reductions in solar cells and solar panels has been a consolidation, or rather a knockout, amongst suppliers of solar cells and solar panels. They have had a very difficult time making profits and most solar cell manufacturers have gone bankrupt, ceased production, been sold off or rescued.

Right. Victims of the  fabulous technical success of their industry.

Take another look: "Annual solar cell installations have rocketed from less than 5,000 MW per annum before 2008 to around 40,000 MW per year today and still increasing rapidly."  5,000 to 40,000 in 7 years means DOUBLING in slightly over 2 years. That is a mind-blowing rate of growth. That's a Moores-Law-type rate of growth. At that rate we could go 100% solar inside of a couple decades. Of course, that nosebleed rate will not be sustained, quite, because it would be impossible as the doublings get bigger. Still, it is a terrific rate of growth, and bodes well. Solar panels are far cheaper than they were 5 years ago, and this is making other energy sources (FFs) look bad. Fossil fuels will soon be uneconomic for most applications.

Quote
He ignores the fact the Chinese have a demographic nightmare on the horizon as a result of the 1 child policy.
Meaning what? A demographic nightmare... of underpopulation? Or are you referring to unmarried young men?

Quote
None of this phases A21 at all.  He has a firm belief in China as the next World Superpower.
You're right: Doesn't phase me much. The facts compel the conclusion that China will rise further and become at  minimum the dominant regional power, possibly a world superpower.

Quote
After that it's going to be Africa!
Now, R.E., be fair! I said "who knows?" who comes after China, and I said that Africa was my WILD GUESS. It remains my wild guess.

Quote
Yes, the place with non-stop civil wars and genocide, epidemics of HIV and Ebola will rise from the ashes in another century to overtake China! 
That's right, it might. Just like China rose from comparable ashes a century ago. The reason I say this is because Africa is so fantastically rich in natural resources and agricultural potential -- almost all totally untapped. Also, the climate is favorable for renewable energy production (solar), and they have vast water resources. Also, some of the fastest growing economies right now are in Africa. It remains a dark horse, and a wild guess for me, but it could happen. We'll see. China is investing a lot in Africa, and that will help also.

Quote
It's a perpetual motion machine of Empires in A21's perception.  History will repeat itself endlessly this way.
Pretty much, yeah. However, I see "empire" as morphing somewhat in definition. China is leading the way in this. The empires of the distant past were incredibly brutal, genocidal beasts. The empires of the recent past (Britain, U.S.) were bloody and spottily brutal -- bad, but not as bad as those of the distant past. And China seems to have taken the thing a further step up in the moral sphere. The Chinese have achieved everything they have achieved almost without any classical empire-like imperialistic adventurism at all. Aside from their behavior toward Tibet, it has been a peaceful rise. They have a growing military sector, but it is not prominent in their overall scheme, i.e. spending on other sectors is vastly higher.

So yes, history will continue to repeat itself -- but perhaps with new twists. Perhaps MLK was right when he said that "the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice", i.e. things are getting better and better, albeit slowly.

Quote
If you do not grasp that all Empires have been built on continuously extracting more energy from the Earth, and that such copious quantities of energy necessary to build an empire and hold it together are rapidly dwindling away, then it is possible to believe in this perpetual motion machine of Empire.
I fully grasp what you are saying. You are correct, historically. But things are now changing. We ARE now on the verge of creating a sort of perpetual motion machine with respect to energy, i.e. renewable energy is becoming cheap enough to allow the entire loop to be closed with renewable energy. It is now just a matter of incremental buildout. Power generated WITHOUT (or with only trace) depletion of non-renewable resources can be used to generate still more power-generating devices, and so on. It really is a game-changer, and we are at the threshold of it, right now. The era of extractive empire and ruinous exploitation of non-renewable resources is coming to a close, in this century.

Quote
  If you believe that Thorium Nuke Plants will be built by the Chinese (and after that Cold Fusion plants too!) to replace their Coal fired electric generating capacity, it's possible to believe in the perpetual motion machine of Empire.  This is the type of argument A21 makes.
It won't take thorium nuke plants, though they might be part of the mix for a while. Cold fusion: yeah, that too! Have you kept up with developments in that area? Remarkable. But even without cold fusion, things are on the right trajectory.  The perpetual motion machine of which you speak is, energetically, very much in the cards in the mid-term.

Quote
It's not a lot different than the arguments Moriarty (MKing) makes about NG and Solar as a means to maintain the techno-industrial lifestyle, just with a China Bull spin to it.  It's delusionary thinking by people who cannot accept the idea that this all is coming to an end now.
Once again, you are right. I am caught in self-deluded cornucopian/growth mania. I'm a hopeless case, R.E. You may as well give up on me.

People like me simply CANNOT ACCEPT that this is ALL COMING TO AN END, RIGHT NOW. So it was written in the Holy Scripture of dieoff.com, and so it MUST COME TO PASS.

That one says it ALL A21.  ::)

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline Surly1

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #221 on: June 01, 2015, 08:26:54 AM »
  Again Alan, Kudos to you for your expertise. You and Snowleopard could make a really mentally healthy team at getting out some good news for a change. Thanks so much for your well said words, dimming the clapper of the death knell.    Karpatok

Karpatok, you need to have a one-on-one with R.E., to restore your fragile doomfaith and reinstate yourself as member in good standing of the Church of HansoNihilism. And you need to stop listening to wicked voices of deception like that cornucopian zealot alan2102.

Why don't the two of you just get a room?
"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline Surly1

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #222 on: June 01, 2015, 08:57:06 AM »
Quote from: Alan
Quote from: RE
None of this phases A21 at all.  He has a firm belief in China as the next World Superpower.
You're right: Doesn't phase me much. The facts compel the conclusion that China will rise further and become at  minimum the dominant regional power, possibly a world superpower.

I have been away for over a week and have not had the time to read this entire thread.

But during my travels I visited with one of my best friends, a university prof who just returned from a teaching gig in China-- Xian, home of the terra cotta soldiers. He and the team he was with were functioning essentially as consultants to university professors in Xian; training the trainers in techniques of innovation. He and the other visiting profs were the "pros from Dover" who worked with teams of university profs via interpreters via large group and small group instruction.

Now I am getting this second-hand, and conversationally, and over cocktails. But the point I took away is that China wants to be better at innovation and out-of-the-box thinking. Seems that innovation is out of culture for the Chinese, who have typically operated in a top down, do-what-you're-told mode, and who have seen themselves as the center of the world for many centuries. Those who see the future clearly realize that they can no longer wait to be told what they need to do: they need to invent it.

My stats may be off, but what I recall my friend telling me was that ten years ago, there were 7 million enrolled in higher ed; in ten years they expect three times that many. And they want them ready to play at business and on the world stage. Contrast those aspirations for a rising generation with those of the sclerotic FSoA, where we reserve higher ed for those with trust funds or a willingness to mortgage their futures...

I got a little peek into China through a series of reflections in a hall of mirrors; yet I have to say that the call that China is "toast" is premature at best. Especially given the success of and subsequent deployment of renewables. The Chinese seem very serious about employing them, if for no other reason that to clean their air. To the extent that economic "growth" is wholly depended on available energy, the Chinese have a winning strategy using renewables. Plus they possess the political will to order it done.

What seems unknowable is the effect of the sheer mass of numbers on the Chinese and international markets. By 2020 the Chinese will have more college educated graduates in the workforce than the size of the entire US work force.

Who knows what the future holds? Yet I'd bet on the 21st century as belonging to the Chinese.
"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline steve from virginia

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #223 on: June 01, 2015, 09:37:27 AM »

A21, Yr hopeless.

I guess you will just have to find out the hard way.

What's interesting is how seamlessly the industrialists' lies are amalgamated into a truthy-like substance. Number one lie is that consumer satisfaction is the same as economic return. Absence of return is manifesting itself just about everywhere on Planet Earth but this doesn't matter when yr industrially produced pants are "comfortable".

Thanks God for the pants industry!

:)




Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #224 on: June 01, 2015, 11:17:27 AM »
A21, Yr hopeless.
It is true. Utterly and completely without hope or a shred of the salvational grace of the First Church of the Doomfaith.

Quote
I guess you will just have to find out the hard way.
Yes, I will have to find out the hard way. As civilization crashes into chaos and anarchy, I will rue the day that I did not listen to the wise and enlightened voices of the Church elders and others on DD.

Quote
What's interesting is how seamlessly the industrialists' lies are amalgamated into a truthy-like substance. Number one lie is that consumer satisfaction is the same as economic return.
Odd statement, since I never said or implied that.

It is revealing that you have no substantive reply, and no explanation for the wild falsehoods that you've uttered.  That's cool. I would rather bring the exchange to an end, and you seem to have little to offer of either factual content or rational argument.  On the other hand, some of your stuff is good for laughs -- just like R.E.'s. I'm saving it for posterity.


 

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