AuthorTopic: Official Chinese Toast Thread  (Read 225605 times)

Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast: Delusions of Techno-Cornucopians
« Reply #225 on: June 01, 2015, 11:50:10 AM »
That one says it ALL A21.  ::)

Glad you enjoyed. I LOVE it when  you guys elect not to even attempt a rebuttal. Makes my life easier.   :)

Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #226 on: June 01, 2015, 11:53:39 AM »
  Again Alan, Kudos to you for your expertise. You and Snowleopard could make a really mentally healthy team at getting out some good news for a change. Thanks so much for your well said words, dimming the clapper of the death knell.    Karpatok

Karpatok, you need to have a one-on-one with R.E., to restore your fragile doomfaith and reinstate yourself as member in good standing of the Church of HansoNihilism. And you need to stop listening to wicked voices of deception like that cornucopian zealot alan2102.

Why don't the two of you just get a room?

There's an idea!

Hey, K, let's go for it.  I can handle it, if you can.   :)

Offline Surly1

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Re: Official Chinese Toast: Delusions of Techno-Cornucopians
« Reply #227 on: June 01, 2015, 12:08:01 PM »
That one says it ALL A21.  ::)

Glad you enjoyed. I LOVE it when  you guys elect not to even attempt a rebuttal. Makes my life easier.   :)



Thanks for playing, alan. Take home our board game as a lovely parting gift.
"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #228 on: June 01, 2015, 12:40:22 PM »
In an adjacent browser tab, I'm reading an article by Mike Whitney, in which he quotes a Secretary of War Defense Ashton Carter speech, thus:

Quote

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50895.html
 (The) ” Asia-Pacific…is the defining region for our nation’s future”… “Half of humanity will live there by 2050″ and that “more than half of the global middle class and its accompanying consumption will come from that region.”….”There are already more than 525 million middle class consumers in Asia, and we expect there to be 3.2 billion in the region by 2030…President Obama and I want to ensure that… businesses can successfully compete for all these potential customers. ….Over the next century, no region will matter more… for American prosperity.”

Hahaha! I swear, these guys literally make me LOL. They don't get it. It's OVER and they've LOST, but they want to pretend that they're still in the game.

At any rate, nice little statistic there: 525 billion middle class right now, and a multiple of that soon. Hmmm. Think there might be a bit of demand for products there, Bunkie?  Just a little? Enough to sop-up some of that excess capacity, perchance?

Compare with Steve's "just a few super-rich and everyone else is destitute".   ::)

Offline alan2102

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Re: Official Chinese Toast: Delusions of Techno-Cornucopians
« Reply #229 on: June 01, 2015, 12:46:34 PM »
Thanks for playing, alan.
You're welcome.

Hey, Surly, you're welcome to chime in with something substantive, any time you like. Call me onto the carpet, point out specific straw men, whatever. Demolish my arguments!  Go for it!

I won't hold my breath.

Offline Eddie

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #230 on: June 01, 2015, 01:40:03 PM »
What exactly does Ashton Carter think the Chinese are going to buy from us? I mean, besides real estate. Maybe cars? Maybe electric cars that run off all those renewables they're ginning up?

Because last time I checked, there wasn't enough petroleum left on earth to fill up the tanks of 525 million Chinese middle-class drivers.

"Us" being a relative term anyway, meaning multi-national corporations that still have American names.

Of the top ten US exports, three are completely dependent on fossil fuels: oil, plastics, and organic chemicals. Even if you think supply is unlimited, I think you'll have to agree that we are net importers of fossil fuels. Hard to build an export economy when you use more than you sell.

Of the seven others, which are electronics, machinery, vehicles, pharmaceuticals, aircraft, medical equipment, and gems/precious metals....it looks to me like China can produce all those with very little help from Americans...at least from American PEOPLE, as opposed to companies with the same rights as people.

So who are Obummer and Carter really interested in helping? Not this middle-class American healthcare provider, who's being nickeled and dimed into poverty in his old age. That's for sure. Let alone the worker bees in what's left of American industry. Maybe they can all re-train as IT professionals?

What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline MKing

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #231 on: June 01, 2015, 02:02:16 PM »

Because last time I checked, there wasn't enough petroleum left on earth to fill up the tanks of 525 million Chinese middle-class drivers.


So…525 million chinese drivers, we assume each owns a car, each car having a gas tank of approx. 15 gallon in size…each 15 gallons of gasoline requiring perhaps 30 gallons of refined crude to create it, 30 gal crude X 525,000,000 tanks to fill = 15,250,000,000 gallons. 15.25 billion gallons of crude / 42 = 375,000,000 barrels of oil.

So sure, it would require about 5 days of global oil production to fill those Chinese cars up. Easy. But how long can we fill them up?

Let us say that all us enlightened Americans, and everyone else, go EV, and we dedicate ourselves to making sure that the Chinese can drive those cars.

They need 375 million a day to fill their cars, every day. They must sure like to cruise the local burger joints!! So they need 375 million X 365 = 136 billion barrels of crude per year.  Current reserves stand at maybe 1.5 trillion, so those Chinese folks would use up all reserves in about a decade.

Throw in some measure of resources, and we could probably double that as well. So 20 years of happy motoring for those Chinese folks.

Now, let me throw in GTLs and baby, those Chinese folks' KIDS will be driving all the those cars as well.

Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
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Offline Surly1

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Re: Official Chinese Toast: Delusions of Techno-Cornucopians
« Reply #232 on: June 01, 2015, 02:14:23 PM »
Thanks for playing, alan.
You're welcome.

Hey, Surly, you're welcome to chime in with something substantive, any time you like. Call me onto the carpet, point out specific straw men, whatever. Demolish my arguments!  Go for it!

I won't hold my breath.

Oh, do. I'll wait. Or you can just troll away.

We've seen this act before. We'll be skating on the air conditioned lakes of hell, made rink-ready by the coming energy cornucopia, as revealed by your buddy MKing, who gets his from laugh-a-minute sites like co2science.

Cue the laugh track.

Happy motoring will go on forever, we're all idiots, etc., etc.

Thanks for stopping back to remind us of the higher wisdom as revealed by Kurzweil, et al. Just tell me where to go to pick up my flying car.

"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #233 on: June 01, 2015, 02:44:05 PM »
Quote from: Alan
Quote from: RE
None of this phases A21 at all.  He has a firm belief in China as the next World Superpower.
You're right: Doesn't phase me much. The facts compel the conclusion that China will rise further and become at  minimum the dominant regional power, possibly a world superpower.

I have been away for over a week and have not had the time to read this entire thread.

But during my travels I visited with one of my best friends, a university prof who just returned from a teaching gig in China-- Xian, home of the terra cotta soldiers. He and the team he was with were functioning essentially as consultants to university professors in Xian; training the trainers in techniques of innovation. He and the other visiting profs were the "pros from Dover" who worked with teams of university profs via interpreters via large group and small group instruction.

Now I am getting this second-hand, and conversationally, and over cocktails. But the point I took away is that China wants to be better at innovation and out-of-the-box thinking. Seems that innovation is out of culture for the Chinese, who have typically operated in a top down, do-what-you're-told mode, and who have seen themselves as the center of the world for many centuries. Those who see the future clearly realize that they can no longer wait to be told what they need to do: they need to invent it.

My stats may be off, but what I recall my friend telling me was that ten years ago, there were 7 million enrolled in higher ed; in ten years they expect three times that many. And they want them ready to play at business and on the world stage. Contrast those aspirations for a rising generation with those of the sclerotic FSoA, where we reserve higher ed for those with trust funds or a willingness to mortgage their futures...

I got a little peek into China through a series of reflections in a hall of mirrors; yet I have to say that the call that China is "toast" is premature at best. Especially given the success of and subsequent deployment of renewables. The Chinese seem very serious about employing them, if for no other reason that to clean their air. To the extent that economic "growth" is wholly depended on available energy, the Chinese have a winning strategy using renewables. Plus they possess the political will to order it done.

What seems unknowable is the effect of the sheer mass of numbers on the Chinese and international markets. By 2020 the Chinese will have more college educated graduates in the workforce than the size of the entire US work force.

Who knows what the future holds? Yet I'd bet on the 21st century as belonging to the Chinese.

Surly i believe your friend would have been citing the domestic college numbers as they would have had a lot more gettng educated overseas. What has happened iS that even 25 years ago prestigious universities were under pressure to pass the full fee payingforeign students softly.  Over time its gotten to the point that now they dont get any worthwhile education in return for their money so they now need to develop their internal education.
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Offline RE

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Re: Official Chinese Toast: Delusions of Techno-Cornucopians
« Reply #234 on: June 01, 2015, 04:41:30 PM »
That one says it ALL A21.  ::)

Glad you enjoyed. I LOVE it when  you guys elect not to even attempt a rebuttal. Makes my life easier.   :)

When a schizophrenic is decompensating, you don't argue with him, you medicate him.  Your rationales are so clearly delusional there is no need to rebut them.  Anyone who could read through that nonsense and believe what you write themself is a hopeless case.  See MK, KK, et al.

RE
« Last Edit: June 01, 2015, 05:59:40 PM by RE »
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Offline knarf

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Is China Finally Discovering the Limits to Growth?
« Reply #235 on: June 01, 2015, 05:02:41 PM »


HONG KONG -- In February of this year Chinese President Xi Jinping publicly unveiled the "Four Comprehensives," his list of political goals for China. They are to "Comprehensively build a moderately prosperous society, deepen reform, govern the nation according to law and strictly govern the Party."

On one reading, this is business as usual for President Xi. He intends to continue "strictly governing the party," through the nationwide anti-corruption campaign that has come to dominate his time in office. And he also intends to continue on the path to achieving a "moderately prosperous society." This is a phrase with a long history in China, stretching back to the Confucian era, that took on renewed importance when Deng Xiaoping made it the eventual goal of Chinese modernization in 1978. Since then, the Chinese Communist Party's economic strategy has been explicitly designed to achieve this goal, and Xi's administration is no exception. The People's Daily called the Four Comprehensives "the guarantee to achieving the Chinese Dream."

But there is another, more radical, more interesting and more farsighted way of interpreting Xi's plan for China.

His landmark anti-corruption drive has done far more than simply purged the party of his political rivals, a charge leveled by some critics. It has come with the public admission that "systemic corruption" is a problem in China. This would be the equivalent of the U.S. president saying at the height of the financial crisis that the U.S. financial system is rigged by Wall Street. This was thus no small statement -- the same assertion was enough to get a recent Xinhua report scrubbed from the Internet. This is an admission that the system itself is flawed, with the direct implication that the Party has made a mistake and is part of the problem.

"More than half of China's water is so polluted it cannot be treated to the point where it is safe to drink."


The truly intriguing possibility is that corruption is not the only systemic problem that Xi wants to address. If reviving "moderate prosperity" 35 years after Deng means more than just admitting that China's days of double digit growth are behind it, then Xi might be the first major world leader to admit that on a finite planet, infinite and unrestrained growth, especially in the world's most populous country, will prove not just unsustainable but downright catastrophic. Could Xi be tapping into a global awakening to the fact that we have been in denial for too long about the unintended consequences of unfettered growth?

There are signs that point in this direction. Since 2012, the Communist Party of China has had as part of its constitution the directive for the "establishment of ecological civilization." Xi's actions so far have shown that he intends to make good on this, not least through an historic climate change accord last year with his U.S. counterpart President Obama. He has also publicly pledged not to sacrifice the environment to promote temporary economic growth, comparing caring for the environment to "caring for one's own eyes and life." Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has likewise joined Xi in promising to address pollution as one of his top priorities, going so far as to declare a "war on pollution."

All of this points towards an economic and environmental policy that if followed through will be admirably farsighted in comparison to that of many other major nations.

After all the China of today is no longer Deng's China, and public expectations and aspirations have changed accordingly. When Deng outlined his plan, China's GDP per capita was a mere U.S. $250, now it is U.S. $6,800. Then, it would have been unimaginable to give environmental concerns an equal standing with Deng's goal of "adequate food and clothing." Now, many in China would likely be willing to forego an economy that doubles in size every 10 years for an end to the air pollution that kills thousands annually in Beijing alone. According to China's ministry of environmental protection, more than half of China's water is so polluted it cannot be treated to the point where it is safe to drink and a quarter is so polluted it is unfit even for industrial use.

But the fact that Xi's emphasis on protecting the environment is necessary makes it no less impressive. Imagine the leader of a European democracy saying that he cannot deliver continuous growth and that in fact the population needs to be willing to accept building a post-modern society with an economy based on living within ones means. Lest one think that there is no need for an already "green" Europe to act, the European Environment Agency reported in March 2015 that in 2011 air pollution alone, mostly in the form of fine particulate matter, resulted in 400,000 premature deaths in Europe, where more than 95 percent of the urban population is exposed to unsafe levels of at least some pollutants.


India's First Air Quality Index


There are signs that the other giants of the developing world may be following China's example. India's Narendra Modi, for example, launched a new air quality index in April in a first step to addressing the fact that air quality in India is even worse than in China, and so bad it is reducing the life expectancy of up to 660 million Indians by an average of 3.2 years. Tellingly, Modi called for lifestyle changes and a move "away from consumerism." And late last year Indonesia's Joko Widodo signaled what has been deemed a "significant change of direction for Indonesia" when he announced a new plan to protect the rainforest and peatlands in his country, which currently suffers from one of the world's worst rates of deforestation.

Compare this with the progress in the developed world, where politicians, business leaders and economists, laboring under the illusion that such concerns are only a problem in less well-off elsewheres, continue to focus on stimulating economic growth in the narrowest sense, with the occasional concession to discussing how equitably that growth is distributed. This ignores the scientific reality that the export of Western consumption patterns to the rest of the world to sustain growth in the West would lead to disaster in as early down the line as 2050, when there will be around 9.5 billion people who need to be adequately fed, clothed and housed.

Still, changing China's attitude towards growth is far from a fait accompli, no matter how farsighted its current leadership may be. It is one thing to identify a problem and quite another to solve it, and at present, many of the imperatives of Chinese public policy still push in the direction of unsustainable consumption and under-pricing externalities. This remains the biggest political tension within policy-making circles. Take even the recently announced "One Belt, One Road," initiative to create a modern day Silk Road linking Asia and Europe.

"The individual desire to own a car must be secondary to the need to protect the collective welfare."


On the surface, it checks all the boxes of modern day public policy, promoting trade, openness, improving infrastructure and increasing connectedness between not just separate nations but separate continents. In reality, an overland route connecting Xian to Venice through Rotterdam and Istanbul would be one of the largest infrastructural products in human history, and come with concomitantly large environmental impacts as mountains are leveled, ecosystems disrupted and massive amounts of resources consumed in its construction. This, from a country which is already infamous from the scale of its production. As much as the U.S. might remain the engine of the modern world, estimates are that in the three years from 2011-2013 China used more concrete than the U.S. did in the entire 20th century. A Joint UN-ADB report predicts that by 2050 Asia's annual resource usage will be roughly twice that of the entire world today.

Avoiding environmental and social catastrophe in Asia and the world will therefore require addressing these tensions inherent in large countries like China and India, and indeed in every other modern nation. And meeting that challenge will require that China take the lead in refining its political systems, yet also avoid simply aping the western model of liberal democracy. It must opt instead for a system where collective rights are paramount. The individual desire to own a car, for example, must be secondary to the need to protect the collective welfare by ensuring livable levels of pollution, congestion and the mental and physical stresses those cause. There will be no way around the imposition of strict limits and major reforms which go against much of the current conventional wisdom, including about the unblemished virtue of liberal democratic states.

If Xi is serious about addressing these issues, he will be tackling the most difficult and important challenge facing the developing world in the 21st century. And that would make him the most revolutionary Chinese leader since Mao with a "great leap forward" of his own that could very well put China in good standing to navigate the very tricky future ahead. It would make Xi's China a model for the rest of Asia and the world to learn from and follow, rather than a cautionary tale to avoid.

12 pictures at :http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chandran-nair/china-limit-growth_b_7253088.html
Mark Twain — 'There are many humorous things in the world; among them, the white man's notion that he is less savage than the other savages.'

Offline RE

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Re: Is China Finally Discovering the Limits to Growth?
« Reply #236 on: June 01, 2015, 05:44:56 PM »


I merged this article Knarf put up into the China Toast thread.  URL for the article is

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chandran-nair/china-limit-growth_b_7253088.html

RE
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Offline Karpatok

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Re: Official Chinese Toast: Delusions of Techno-Cornucopians
« Reply #237 on: June 01, 2015, 06:33:49 PM »
Thanks for playing, alan.
You're welcome.

Hey, Surly, you're welcome to chime in with something substantive, any time you like. Call me onto the carpet, point out specific straw men, whatever. Demolish my arguments!  Go for it!

I won't hold my breath.
  Well Alan, here is what is really done when they have no substantive answer. They just erase your comment altogether. Then they can get back to their delusions about other people's denial. Smooth, No?  Defensive? Not a bit. Just good old Nazi Fascist behavior like the Ukraine. Next step, just MURDER the opposition, that will shut them up for good, won't it. Won't it?                            Karpatok

Offline Eddie

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #238 on: June 01, 2015, 08:39:34 PM »
They need 375 million a day to fill their cars, every day. They must sure like to cruise the local burger joints!! So they need 375 million X 365 = 136 billion barrels of crude per year.  Current reserves stand at maybe 1.5 trillion, so those Chinese folks would use up all reserves in about a decade.


A fine way to piss away the last of the earth's most valuable resource, too, don't you think?

Don't forget Alan's claim that there will be MULTIPLES of that 525 million middle class Chinese, very soon now.



Chinese middle class, headed for Burger King.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Karpatok

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Re: Official Chinese Toast Thread
« Reply #239 on: June 01, 2015, 08:50:23 PM »
They need 375 million a day to fill their cars, every day. They must sure like to cruise the local burger joints!! So they need 375 million X 365 = 136 billion barrels of crude per year.  Current reserves stand at maybe 1.5 trillion, so those Chinese folks would use up all reserves in about a decade.


A fine way to piss away the last of the earth's most valuable resource, too, don't you think?

Don't forget Alan's claim that there will be MULTIPLES of that 525 million middle class Chinese, very soon now.



Chinese middle class, headed for Burger King.
  But how many cars in your own good sized family? Aren't they "middle class" by your own description? How much precious resource is being "pissed" away right there? HUH?  Whadja say?                                                Karpatok

 

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