AuthorTopic: The Potfolio  (Read 63424 times)

Offline Eddie

  • Global Moderator
  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 17502
    • View Profile
The Potfolio
« on: October 13, 2016, 07:36:54 AM »
In the old days, you could save up a tidy sum, say $650K, and retire at age 65, with the expectation that you could put your money in risk-free bank CD's and draw over $4000 per month (when interest was 5%) and expect your nest egg to last until you were 85.

Most pension funds (including 401K's) still calculate retirement along those lines. Actually they figure you'll be in bonds and stocks and get 7% or better. With the asset bubbles the Fed has blown up, some funds have actually still achieved this return in recent years, but the risk factor has gone way up. In any case, there is no reason to expect this kind of return will happen at all going forward. "Risk-free" CD's are not risk free in a world that is constantly on the edge of a complete world-wide banking collapse, and they only pay slightly over 2% anyway.

So....is there an alternative to traditional investing that makes any sense? Traditionally, what have been called Sin Stocks (booze and cigarettes and gambling companies) have been one strategy to get reasonable returns in equities, the idea being that such businesses are somewhat insulated from economic recession, and might even do better in hard times, as people turn to vice on their way to rack and ruin.

Marijuana stocks sort of fall into this category, in my book, even though the legalization of cannabis has been achieved by those who claim medical benefits (of which there certainly are some, but far more people are interested in smoking pot as a recreational activity.) I use the term recreational loosely, understanding that much of this might be considered self-medication for stress.

In any case, pot is now legal as medicine in several places in the US and everywhere in Canada, and legal for recreational use in a few states in the US and looks to be legalized completely in Canada within a year or two.

In my opinion, even in a time of diminishing returns and economic turmoil, the early winners in the pot market, the companies that have managed to negotiate their way into legitimate medical marijuana licenses and are growing pot legally already, are poised to grow by leaps and bounds, even as global GDP drops toward zero.

Some people are so anti-capitalism that maybe they don't want to put money in any corporation. Others might have some kind of moral or ethical problem with making money off a substance that we've been jailing people for smoking for half a century. Others might simply look at the shaky financials of these fledgling companies and decide the risk is too high to put money into them. If you fall into one or more of those categories, this thread is not for you, so read no further.

For those who might have an interest, I have made a watch list on Yahoo Finance of nine companies that look better than the rest to me (right now), and I'll be following them for a while to see if I'm right about the kind of gains they're capable of making. I will add to the list as I see fit. Suggestions and discussion are welcomed. Those wishing to participate anonymously are welcome to PM me.

I intend to take each of these stocks and write something more in depth about their individual business models and their financials (although I'm no trained analyst when it comes to judging a company's fundamentals). Some of them are already mini-conglomerates, having bought out their competitors and positioned themselves to participate in more than one part of the grow/distribute/sell chain.

For the moment, here's a link to the nine stocks that look to me like they might go somewhere. As you can see, they are quite volatile, and they don't always move together. (Today they are, but the entire market is getting hammered this morning.)




For future reference, I will record the current prices for the potfolio today.

BE.CN  1.13

ACBFF 1.56

OGI.V  2.33

GRNH  .0759

MJNA  .063

EMH.V  .85

APH.V  3.43

MT.V   3.77

CGC.TO  5.49


As usual, my interest in these companies should not be interpreted as financial advice, or as encouragement to piss away the rent money on dodgy fly-by-night companies started by dope fiends. Do your own due diligence, etc.


As this thread has developed, I've had to go back and remove some links to my personal Yahoo Finance watchlist, because it made a backdoor portal into my personal email.....oops. If you should happen to find one I missed, please leave me a comment and tell me what page of the thread it's on. For your convenience, here is a link to a recent post with a complete list of the current Potfolio stocks, as of January13, 2017. Scroll down to comment #181.

http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/forum/index.php/topic,8128.180.html
« Last Edit: January 13, 2017, 12:38:14 PM by Eddie »
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 38618
    • View Profile
Re: The Potfolio
« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2016, 11:11:58 AM »
In the old days, you could save up a tidy sum, say $650K, and retire at age 65, with the expectation that you could put your money in risk-free bank CD's and draw over $4000 per month (when interest was 5%) and expect your nest egg to last until you were 85.

Most pension funds (including 401K's) still calculate retirement along those lines. Actually they figure you'll be in bonds and stocks and get 7% or better. With the asset bubbles the Fed has blown up, some funds have actually still achieved this return in recent years, but the risk factor has gone way up. In any case, there is no reason to expect this kind of return will happen at all going forward. "Risk-free" CD's are not risk free in a world that is constantly on the edge of a complete world-wide banking collapse, and they only pay slightly over 2% anyway.

So....is there an alternative to traditional investing that makes any sense? Traditionally, what have been called Sin Stocks (booze and cigarettes and gambling companies) have been one strategy to get reasonable returns in equities, the idea being that such businesses are somewhat insulated from economic recession, and might even do better in hard times, as people turn to vice on their way to rack and ruin.

Marijuana stocks sort of fall into this category, in my book, even though the legalization of cannabis has been achieved by those who claim medical benefits (of which there certainly are some, but far more people are interested in smoking pot as a recreational activity.) I use the term recreational loosely, understanding that much of this might be considered self-medication for stress.

In any case, pot is now legal as medicine in several places in the US and everywhere in Canada, and legal for recreational use in a few states in the US and looks to be legalized completely in Canada within a year or two.

In my opinion, even in a time of diminishing returns and economic turmoil, the early winners in the pot market, the companies that have managed to negotiate their way into legitimate medical marijuana licenses and are growing pot legally already, are poised to grow by leaps and bounds, even as global GDP drops toward zero.

Some people are so anti-capitalism that maybe they don't want to put money in any corporation. Others might have some kind of moral or ethical problem with making money off a substance that we've been jailing people for smoking for half a century. Others might simply look at the shaky financials of these fledgling companies and decide the risk is too high to put money into them. If you fall into one or more of those categories, this thread is not for you, so read no further.

For those who might have an interest, I have made a watch list on Yahoo Finance of nine companies that look better than the rest to me (right now), and I'll be following them for a while to see if I'm right about the kind of gains they're capable of making. I will add to the list as I see fit. Suggestions and discussion are welcomed. Those wishing to participate anonymously are welcome to PM me.

I intend to take each of these stocks and write something more in depth about their individual business models and their financials (although I'm no trained analyst when it comes to judging a company's fundamentals). Some of them are already mini-conglomerates, having bought out their competitors and positioned themselves to participate in more than one part of the grow/distribute/sell chain.

For the moment, here's a link to the nine stocks that look to me like they might go somewhere. As you can see, they are quite volatile, and they don't always move together. (Today they are, but the entire market is getting hammered this morning.)


https://finance.yahoo.com/portfolio/p_0/view?bypass=true

I thought you were out of the Stock Investing game?

If you think Pot is the Future, wouldn't your philosophy of hard assets dictate you start growing ganga yourself?

You could buy some land up here in Alaska.  They have a course for people to take for legal growing, I'll take the course and manage the pot farm.  :icon_sunny:

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline Eddie

  • Global Moderator
  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 17502
    • View Profile
Re: The Potfolio
« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2016, 11:22:31 AM »
I'm a believer in slow collapse.  ;D I'm also approaching retirement age, and am starting a new 401K (for tax reasons) as advised by my new expensive practice consultant.

My general feeling has been that we will see gold resume its steady appreciation against the USD and other fiat toilet paper, and that it might finally be time to think about putting a small stake in mining stocks, which have appreciated tremendously this year (although they are taking it on the chin again right now).

On due consideration, my feeling is that a good run in mining stocks might net a 10X return over the next several years.

Marijuana stocks, on the other hand, while riskier, might do much better...maybe 100X. Therefore....

I think it makes more sense right now to put money on people who are already experts, and just as importantly, people who have successfully learned to negotiate the bureaucracy, which is a minefield.

What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 38618
    • View Profile
Re: The Potfolio
« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2016, 11:34:35 AM »
If your Consultant is Expensive, he must be good.

I wish you the best of luck!

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline Eddie

  • Global Moderator
  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 17502
    • View Profile
Re: The Potfolio
« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2016, 11:39:04 AM »
I'll know how good he is when I see my 2015 tax return, which should be by tomorrow.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 38618
    • View Profile
Re: The Potfolio
« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2016, 12:12:16 PM »
I'll know how good he is when I see my 2015 tax return, which should be by tomorrow.

2015?  I gather this is a demonstration of how much you would have saved if he had done your taxes in 2015 rather than whoever did do them?

How do you know though if the IRS wouldn't have Audited this return?

Also, does tax expertiese necessarily make you an expert in what to invest in?  How do you know what kind of average return his clients get on their portfolios, other than what he tells you they get?

As a whole, the Stock Market is highly over valued, so I don't see how mining stocks are going anywhere but further down.  They're all highly leveraged with a lot of debt, and with contracting credit in the banking industry, when they can't roll over their debt many more will go tits up with total equity wipeouts.

However, it is your money so do as you please.

I look forward to another I told you so moment however.

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline Eddie

  • Global Moderator
  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 17502
    • View Profile
Re: The Potfolio
« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2016, 12:53:27 PM »
I'll know how good he is when I see my 2015 tax return, which should be by tomorrow.

2015?  I gather this is a demonstration of how much you would have saved if he had done your taxes in 2015 rather than whoever did do them?

How do you know though if the IRS wouldn't have Audited this return?

Also, does tax expertise necessarily make you an expert in what to invest in?  How do you know what kind of average return his clients get on their portfolios, other than what he tells you they get?

As a whole, the Stock Market is highly over valued, so I don't see how mining stocks are going anywhere but further down.  They're all highly leveraged with a lot of debt, and with contracting credit in the banking industry, when they can't roll over their debt many more will go tits up with total equity wipeouts.

However, it is your money so do as you please.

I look forward to another I told you so moment however.

RE

No, my 2015 tax return is due next Monday (6 month extension). I have not seen the completed return, nor do I know what my shortfall might be.  I was given the expectation that my total IRS bill would be maybe half what I paid last year. That would be nice. I have discovered that my prior accountant failed to take at least 10K in straightforward deductions for the 2014 tax year, which is part of the reason I got raped so badly.

My practice consultant is not giving me investment advice. I can give my 401K money over to their portfolio managers, or choose to direct it myself. My choice. He did convince me that putting money into the 401K was a good tax dodge, even if it sat in money market funds and gained me nothing.

Some mining ETF's are up nearly 200% for 2016, and yet are still selling for a discount to net asset value. They are not overvalued, having been beaten down for the last several years. I wouldn't bet the farm on them, of course. Gold is a manipulated market. A small stake is all I'm considering, an amount I can afford to lose and still not end up living under a bridge.

Pot stocks look like a growth story to me. Markets are not monolithic. At the current prices these companies look attractive to me. I doubt the portfolio managers at the expensive consulting firm would recommend either miners or pot stocks...

I haven't taken any losses over your last I told you so, therefore it was an academic exercise only. :)

« Last Edit: October 13, 2016, 12:57:23 PM by Eddie »
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Eddie

  • Global Moderator
  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 17502
    • View Profile
Re: The Potfolio
« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2016, 01:59:45 PM »
Some people regard a recommendation by TheStreet.Com as an automatic indication to go short on whatever they're hawking, and I wouldn't argue with that logic most of the time...but today they're touting two of the companies in the Potfolio, so I'm going to cut and paste this, fwiw. Great photo, in any case.



Marijuana Stocks That Could Quadruple in Price

 These marijuana stocks are ready for huge growth, particularly if November is a successful month for legalization.

 William Romov William Romov  Follow Oct 13, 2016 3:38 PM EDT

     
California and five other states will vote on whether to legalize recreational marijuana this November. In addition, Arkansas and Florida will vote on whether to legalize marijuana for medical purposes.

Marijuana usage is on the rise.

Consider that over the last 30 days, the S&P 500 has fallen 2.5% from 2,186.5 to 2133. Yet over that same period, the North American Marijuana Index increased 42%. Investors might want to add marijuana stocks to their portfolios.

Canopy Growth (CGC.TO) and Aurora Cannabis (ACBFF) are two of the 23 constituents that form the Marijuana Index. These companies already have racked up market-beating gains, which will continue in November and beyond if marijuana legalization is successful. Watch these stocks and be ready to buy on dips as volatile markets head into earnings season.

A vote to legalize in California and Florida could have a major impact nationally on the industry. California has over 12% of the total U.S. population. Florida is the country's third most populated state at 6.3%.

Legalization in Florida was narrowly defeated in 2014 by 2%.

Arizona and Massachusetts, which have encountered pushback from anti-legalization groups, and Maine and Nevada are other states weighing legalization.

Canopy Growth

Canopy Growth on Monday announced that it would continue to work with XIB Consulting, which consults on corporate initiatives like acquisitions, networking, and market awareness.

In partnership with rapper Snoop Dogg's "Leafs" brand, Canadian-based Canopy Growth is ready to roll out three new strains of marijuana across Canada by the end of the month. That's exciting news for the recreational marijuana user in Canada but what does it mean for the company's earnings? The answer decides whether investors should expect significant share price gains.

Snoop's endorsement would give Canopy Growth an edge against its Canadian peers once recreational markets become available. This advantage would become especially pronounced once Canadian marijuana producers start looking to recreational markets in the United States.

Although Canopy Growth hasn't been profitable in the last three quarters, its sales growth is attractive. Over the last nine quarters the company's total sales have grown on average 57% per quarter from $176,000 in the second quarter of 2014 to $5.38 million in the same period for 2016.
     


Aurora Cannabis

Canadian cannabis producer, Aurora Cannabis is one of the only producers turning a profit at $427,000 and $1.95 million, respectively in the fourth quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016.

Aurora Cannabis achieved two major milestones in the last 30 days that you would expect of a budding young growth stock. First, the company's shares were moved to the Toronto Stock Exchange's Venture Exchange. CEO Terry Booth said that this milestone reflects "remarkably rapid operational and commercial progress."


Second, the company announced on Monday that it would issue up to $25 million in convertible debt. Booth said that this offering makes Aurora one of the "best capitalized companies, with one of the strongest balance sheets in the cannabis sector."

Following the offering, the company will convert $10 million of pre-existing convertible debt into about 8.7 million shares of stock. The dilution of the company's outstanding shares is currently providing investors with an opportunity to buy the stock below $1.70.


https://www.thestreet.com/story/13850908/1/2-inexpensive-marijuana-stocks-that-could-quadruple-in-price.html
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Petty Tyrant

  • Cannot be Saved
  • Sous Chef
  • *
  • Posts: 4573
    • View Profile
Re: The Potfolio
« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2016, 03:27:04 PM »
Nice title Ed, whats the law in Nevada? I ask because a friend went to inspect a rental property there and tenants were growing for 'medicinal use', but said the whole house smells so strong its unbearable. So thats not a personal amount...

RE, using land to grow is so 20th Century, all hydroponic now.
ELEVATE YOUR GAME

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 38618
    • View Profile
Re: The Potfolio
« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2016, 04:10:57 PM »
RE, using land to grow is so 20th Century, all hydroponic now.

You still need land to put the hydroponics ON.

This Alaska.  All indoor growing.

I'm thinking a nice 60' Monolithic Pot Hydroponic Grow Dome.  :icon_mrgreen:

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline Eddie

  • Global Moderator
  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 17502
    • View Profile
Re: The Potfolio
« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2016, 06:10:51 PM »
Nice title Ed, whats the law in Nevada? I ask because a friend went to inspect a rental property there and tenants were growing for 'medicinal use', but said the whole house smells so strong its unbearable. So thats not a personal amount...

RE, using land to grow is so 20th Century, all hydroponic now.

Apparently Nevada has "decriminalized" pot, although there that just means it's a misdemeanor for possession of less than an oz. Any sale, or cultivation of more than 12 plants is still a felony. Of course, it all has a lot to do with whether state and local cops actually enforce those laws, and I don't know about NV.

When I was much younger, like in college, here in Austin it was not unusual for people to smoke pot in nightclubs. The cops just didn't enforce the existing laws. It is less wide open now than it was 30 years ago, from what I know. (I don't get around much anymore.)

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/GMzilyGZrHI&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/GMzilyGZrHI&fs=1</a>
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 38618
    • View Profile
Re: The Potfolio
« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2016, 06:58:46 PM »
With all this Ganga talk, I am tempted to refit my bedroom as a Hydroponic Pot Growing Center!  :icon_mrgreen:  I don't really need that space, I could just as easily sleep on the Futon-Couch in the Living Room.

"RE's Matanuska-Susitnta River Valley Thunderfuck"  :icon_sunny:

Too bad I don't enjoy smoking the shit myself much anymore.  :(

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline K-Dog

  • Global Moderator
  • Sous Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 3161
    • View Profile
    • K-Dog
Re: The Potfolio
« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2016, 12:47:46 AM »
With all this Ganga talk, I am tempted to refit my bedroom as a Hydroponic Pot Growing Center!  :icon_mrgreen:  I don't really need that space, I could just as easily sleep on the Futon-Couch in the Living Room.

"RE's Matanuska-Susitnta River Valley Thunderfuck"  :icon_sunny:

Too bad I don't enjoy smoking the shit myself much anymore.  :(

RE

The light therapy might be good.


And it is not all indoors:


Alaskan Thunder Fuck


Alaskan Thunder Fuck (also referred to as ATF, Matanuska Thunder Fuck or Matanuska Tundra) is a legendary sativa-dominant strain originating in the Matanuska Valley area of Alaska.  According to the legend, it was originally a Northern California sativa crossed with a Russian ruderalis, but sometime in the late 70s it was crossed with Afghani genetics to make it heartier.  ATF usually presents large, beautifully frosted buds with incredibly strong odors of pine, lemon, menthol, and skunk.  Known for possessing a relaxing yet intensely euphoric high, it is also described as having a “creeper” effect as well as pronounced appetite enhancement.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2016, 12:50:52 AM by K-Dog »
Under ideal conditions of temperature and pressure the organism will grow without limit.

Offline Eddie

  • Global Moderator
  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 17502
    • View Profile
Re: The Potfolio
« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2016, 07:13:47 AM »
Two more stocks have been added to the Potfolio watchlist....CANN and CBDS.



Update at market close 10-17-2016:

I should have bought instead of watching.  CANN and CBDS up over 30% IN ONE DAY (today) and two other stocks in the potfolio up over 20% today. These big moves are tied to speculation that pot will be legalized in several new states in a few weeks. I expect the crazy gains will subside after the election. We shall see.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2017, 12:04:11 PM by Eddie »
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Eddie

  • Global Moderator
  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 17502
    • View Profile
Re: The Potfolio
« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2016, 08:06:38 AM »
Most of the potfolio is up again substantially this morning, anwhere from 5 to nearly 15 percent in less than one trading day. BE.CN and EMH.V have been down substantially while the others are literally on fire....I may drop them from the watchlist if they continue to underperform.

The broad markets are supposed to be breaking down, according the the technical analysts I follow. A hard down day would probably drive these high flyers down far enough to make a decent entry point...but it seems wrong tactically to buy any stock that has gained 25 to 30 percent in two days. A correction should be imminent.



« Last Edit: January 13, 2017, 12:03:45 PM by Eddie »
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.