AuthorTopic: Official Arctic Meltdown Thread  (Read 14463 times)

Offline K-Dog

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Re: Official Arctic Meltdown Thread
« Reply #90 on: January 11, 2019, 05:54:06 AM »
Venus in a few days, Ha! Ha! :o
I think that his timeline is highly speculative. After rereading the article many times I think there are 3 separate events here. 1. Blue Ocean event, which causes rapid warming of Arctic Ocean, which starts . . . 2. Methane blowout with an implied Firestorm (from it's partial burning?) and subsequent 10oC rise in Global temps (killing everything) . . . 3. 5 year delay for that heat to melt the Arctic Shelf Ice and release all the methane hydrates at which point the planet goes to Venus.
I don't know whether to take this seriously. Many climate scientists are seeing some of this possibly happening. Only McPherson and the people on Arctic News seem this dire. Is that because they are wrong? I don't know. They would accuse the mainstream climate scientists (Mann, Schmidt, et.al.) of being to conservative. Are they being to alarmist? I don't know. The planet has handled massively greater amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere in past. And it has processed large amounts of methane in the past. The question is the speed at which we are changing it and if it will pass tipping points that lead to some runaway course that doesn't stabilize at a "livable" level. Your guess is as good as mine. But it is cause to worry.
AJ

Here is the thing.

There are no tipping points which get us to Venus.  Venus has an atmosphere which has the same pressure on the ground that our oceans do 3000 feet deep.  Of course Venus is as hot as shit. It can't be anything else with an atmosphere that were it to cool to Earth temperature would condense as an ocean of CO2.  Not even apples and oranges.

So K-Dog could do a victory dance and say see how smart I am.  I don't want to.  I want to point out that certain mental derangement's endemic to being human prevent the most obvious of facts from restoring someone to sanity.  They delight in the alarm.  They want the alarm.  They can't dive without the alarm.

Otherwise they would ask themselves.  What is the goddamn pressure on the surface of Venus because on the Earth the air is thin enough that it gets cold at night.

Then they would google it, find what the pressure is and see McPherson is not the one to be holding water.  Our CO2 is locked up in limestone.  That is why we can't be Venus.
Under ideal conditions of temperature and pressure the organism will grow without limit.

Offline K-Dog

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Re: Official Arctic Meltdown Thread
« Reply #91 on: January 11, 2019, 06:16:19 AM »
This is research that tends to back-up McPherson and Paul Beckwith. Although McPherson throws in an earlier (this coming summer) collapse of agriculture and civilization leading to a loss of global dimming (due to the pollutants we are currently putting up) leading to a rapid rise of 2oC in temp in weeks (again this summer).
I spent some time reading articles on the website that you listed. Profoundly depressing. In line with McPherson. There was a suggestion that we are headed to a runaway greenhouse scenario like Venus. If it gets hot enough you start evaporating vast amounts of ocean water. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse agent in its own right. Given enough temp and time you evaporate all the oceans and have Venus.
Truly scary stuff. Maybe time to order that end of the world box of cigars.

Thanks,
AJ

here is an explanation of Mcphersons theory the dimming effect and loss.

"When fossil fuels are burned they release CO2 that collects in our atmosphere. It also produces aerosol particulates as well. Those particles create a shield for the rays of the sun, while the planet keeps warming. If we stop using fossil fuels, the shields of aerosol particulates would fall to earth within about 6 weeks. As little as 35% reduction in industrial activity causes 1% Celsius temperature rise. "

That is sneaky.  But let us do a basic experiment and let horse science and common sense deal with Mr. McPherson.



First we must hold CO2 constant in the experiment.  All that stops is the release of aerosols which dissipate in 6 weeks. 

Q:  Where does the 1% increase come from?

A:  An increase of solar radiation reaching the ground has to increase.  For a degree of warming there has to be so much particulate matter in the atmosphere every amateur astronomer in America would be quantifying it were there a grain of truth.  They are not.  People would be ranting about the 1% increase of power they get from solar because it is on a mountain.  They are not.

That was the common sense part.  All sorts of science experiments would be quantifying particulate matter effects if they were as significant as McPherson contends.  Kids would be sending up Raspberry Pis with light sensors on balloons to measure it.  Facts, significant facts would have leaked into social consciousness and not via McPherson.

McPherson sells snake oil.

Common Sense.  So ask yourself why he does it.

The answer is it's what cult figures do.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2019, 06:27:42 AM by K-Dog »
Under ideal conditions of temperature and pressure the organism will grow without limit.

Offline AJ

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Re: Official Arctic Meltdown Thread
« Reply #92 on: January 11, 2019, 12:18:30 PM »
This is research that tends to back-up McPherson and Paul Beckwith. Although McPherson throws in an earlier (this coming summer) collapse of agriculture and civilization leading to a loss of global dimming (due to the pollutants we are currently putting up) leading to a rapid rise of 2oC in temp in weeks (again this summer).
I spent some time reading articles on the website that you listed. Profoundly depressing. In line with McPherson. There was a suggestion that we are headed to a runaway greenhouse scenario like Venus. If it gets hot enough you start evaporating vast amounts of ocean water. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse agent in its own right. Given enough temp and time you evaporate all the oceans and have Venus.
Truly scary stuff. Maybe time to order that end of the world box of cigars.

Thanks,
AJ

here is an explanation of Mcphersons theory the dimming effect and loss.

"When fossil fuels are burned they release CO2 that collects in our atmosphere. It also produces aerosol particulates as well. Those particles create a shield for the rays of the sun, while the planet keeps warming. If we stop using fossil fuels, the shields of aerosol particulates would fall to earth within about 6 weeks. As little as 35% reduction in industrial activity causes 1% Celsius temperature rise. "

That is sneaky.  But let us do a basic experiment and let horse science and common sense deal with Mr. McPherson.



First we must hold CO2 constant in the experiment.  All that stops is the release of aerosols which dissipate in 6 weeks. 

Q:  Where does the 1% increase come from?

A:  An increase of solar radiation reaching the ground has to increase.  For a degree of warming there has to be so much particulate matter in the atmosphere every amateur astronomer in America would be quantifying it were there a grain of truth.  They are not.  People would be ranting about the 1% increase of power they get from solar because it is on a mountain.  They are not.

That was the common sense part.  All sorts of science experiments would be quantifying particulate matter effects if they were as significant as McPherson contends.  Kids would be sending up Raspberry Pis with light sensors on balloons to measure it.  Facts, significant facts would have leaked into social consciousness and not via McPherson.

McPherson sells snake oil.

Common Sense.  So ask yourself why he does it.

The answer is it's what cult figures do.

Not to be defending McPherson, BUT he says that this experiment has been done before. 9/11. The planes stopped flying worldwide for some time. The temperature of the planet markedly increased as as the sulphates/aerosols put out by the planes was suspended (and industry that was curtailed). He is currently claiming that agriculture in the Northern Hemisphere will fail so precipitously this summer (due to the current temps and a blue ocean event) that civilization will collapse and the global dimming will be removed. Not saying he's right on the timeline but that's his basic argument as I understand it. Perhaps I will have to watch some more of his youtube videos just to make sure I'm not getting HIS theory wrong :-[.
As to runaway global warming. Hansen postulated that we could get to Venus because . . . (and now you're really taxing my feeble old brain) as the temperatures increase so does the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas. Eventually if the temps stay high for LONG enough the oceans are all evaporated.  Over time plate tectonics recycles all the CO2 back up into the atmosphere. Only the hydrologic cycle (through weathering) and life (source of FF) pull it out of the atmosphere and sequester it in rock - but since they are both gone all CO2 ends up in the atmosphere.   Hence, Venus.
AJ
Nullis in Verba

Offline AJ

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Re: Official Arctic Meltdown Thread
« Reply #93 on: January 11, 2019, 03:56:24 PM »
Additionally, as I understand it Venus could never condense it's CO2 as the sun's luminosity (i.e. radiation) is so much more intense at it's closer distance to the sun. That and the fact that there are no plate tectonics on Venus to recycle CO2 into the rock.
And Additionally. again' (god these old minds work slowly) the sun's luminosity is increasing and the photosphere is growing in size. Although this has been going on since the birth of the solar system life and plate tectonics on Earth (Gaia anyone) have compensated for the increased luminosity. Life will be extinct on Earth before 4 billion more years pass, at that point the sun will have entered a Red Giant stage and it's circumference will be the orbit of Earth.
Hansen may have postulated (it was years ago that I read his book "Storms of our Grandchildren") as we went to Venus increased solar radiation pressure will slowly strip the atmosphere from us ultimately leaving us a atmosphere free planet. Brains far smarter than I see runaway greenhouse a distinct possibility (sorry but I am resorting to a logical fallacy - appeal to authority, since I am to stupid to redo the research :laugh:).
AJ
Nullis in Verba

Offline Theta

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Re: Official Arctic Meltdown Thread
« Reply #94 on: January 11, 2019, 04:56:53 PM »
Additionally, as I understand it Venus could never condense it's CO2 as the sun's luminosity (i.e. radiation) is so much more intense at it's closer distance to the sun. That and the fact that there are no plate tectonics on Venus to recycle CO2 into the rock.
And Additionally. again' (god these old minds work slowly) the sun's luminosity is increasing and the photosphere is growing in size. Although this has been going on since the birth of the solar system life and plate tectonics on Earth (Gaia anyone) have compensated for the increased luminosity. Life will be extinct on Earth before 4 billion more years pass, at that point the sun will have entered a Red Giant stage and it's circumference will be the orbit of Earth.
Hansen may have postulated (it was years ago that I read his book "Storms of our Grandchildren") as we went to Venus increased solar radiation pressure will slowly strip the atmosphere from us ultimately leaving us a atmosphere free planet. Brains far smarter than I see runaway greenhouse a distinct possibility (sorry but I am resorting to a logical fallacy - appeal to authority, since I am to stupid to redo the research :laugh:).
AJ

No problem AJ. If you don't mind me asking, how fast do you think earth would turn into Venus? For example, for it be instantaneous and boil us all alive (i.e the day the Arctic produces the 50gt of methane), or would the process be more protracted, occurring over the course of years?

Offline Eddie

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Re: Official Arctic Meltdown Thread
« Reply #95 on: January 11, 2019, 05:14:00 PM »
It sometimes already gets to 50 degrees C in Phoenix in the summer, and 1.6 million people still live there. In Minneapolis a hot day in July is 23 degrees Celsius.

It's more complicated than a simple rise in temperature of 2 degrees ...or even 10 degrees.

It's the disruption of agriculture that causes the problem. Humans can adapt to temperature extremes. We do live in a biosphere, however, that contains a whole lot of other life forms, and we are very co-dependent and we live in symbiosis.

The methane is already being released. Absolutely nobody can really tell us what is going to happen. We are in uncharted territory. I seriously doubt, however, that we'll all be boiled alive one day, or that we'll all go the same year even.

This doesn't mean there isn't a bad problem. It just means that the map (modeling) is not the territory (reality).
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: Official Arctic Meltdown Thread
« Reply #96 on: January 11, 2019, 05:39:42 PM »
Water vapor is a strong greenhouse agent in its own right.
This is not correct.  Water vapor can go either way.  At night, especially in high cirrus clouds, water vapor is very effective as a greenhouse gas.  During the daytime, especially in heavy cumulus clouds, water vapor is very effective at reflecting the sun's heat and has a cooling effect.
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Offline John of Wallan

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Re: Official Arctic Meltdown Thread
« Reply #97 on: January 11, 2019, 05:41:47 PM »
If we get an ice free arctic any time soon, and the figures look like we will, Northern Hemisphere temperatures will spike, quicker than they currently are.

This will probably cause;

1. Short term crop failures due to disruptions to weather pattern in the Northern Hemisphere, where most cereals are grown, and most people live. We are in a global system, so we down South will also be affected even if our weather is not so much in the short term. Try and feed humanity without corn, wheat, barley and other cereals grown in dry area, (non-irrigated) farmlands. I grew up on 5000 acre dry area cereal crop farm in Western N.S.W. We received between 12 and 14 inches of rain a year. This area is marginal for cereal growing. Lose 1 or 2 inches of annual rainfall, particularly in late winter or spring and you get 50% reduction in yield. Get the same rain and a few degrees hotter and evaporation reduces available water and yield by the same. We are getting temps already 5 to 8 degrees hotter than average inland.

2. Release of methane trapped in shallow arctic ocean and what was once called permafrost. (Tempafrost? Permabog?) This is a major feedback loop and will cause further warming, as methane is a much more powerful greenhouse gas. Traps more heat in due to wavelength absorption etc.. Bit rusty of the physics, 25 years since I studied it. I rely on information from hopefully reputable sources...

3. Rinse and repeat for us Southerners with maybe a year or 2 delay, so we can see the horrors before we experience them. Yah!

4, Everyone will come together in love and peace, hold hands and sing Kumbaya while Trump's space force looks for food in outer space. On Tesla battery powered rocket ships. With sharks with frikkin laser beams.

Just as well global warming is a left wing hoax or I would be worried.....
Shit, I even wrote this sober. Usually I only get this cynical after a bottle of red.
What was that Asimov quote again?

JOW

Offline Theta

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Re: Official Arctic Meltdown Thread
« Reply #98 on: January 11, 2019, 06:15:50 PM »
Do we even need an ice free arctic to kick all this off. If you look at Malcolm's graph on the Arctic News blog post, you'll see the comment "50gt of methane can be released at any time which leads me to believe that the 50gt release can just happen randomly.

Offline John of Wallan

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Re: Official Arctic Meltdown Thread
« Reply #99 on: January 11, 2019, 06:29:58 PM »
Do we even need an ice free arctic to kick all this off. If you look at Malcolm's graph on the Arctic News blog post, you'll see the comment "50gt of methane can be released at any time which leads me to believe that the 50gt release can just happen randomly.

Probably not.

Kumbaya: Peter, Paul and Mary

Kumbaya my Lord, kumbaya
Kumbaya my Lord, kumbaya
Kumbaya my Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya
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Someone's singing Lord, kumbaya
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Someone's laughing, Lord, kumbaya
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Offline John of Wallan

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Re: Official Arctic Meltdown Thread
« Reply #100 on: January 11, 2019, 06:44:52 PM »
Do we even need an ice free arctic to kick all this off. If you look at Malcolm's graph on the Arctic News blog post, you'll see the comment "50gt of methane can be released at any time which leads me to believe that the 50gt release can just happen randomly.

Probably not.

Kumbaya: Peter, Paul and Mary

Kumbaya my Lord, kumbaya
Kumbaya my Lord, kumbaya
Kumbaya my Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya
Someone's singing Lord, kumbaya
Someone's singing Lord, kumbaya
Someone's singing Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbayah
Someone's laughing, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's laughing, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's laughing, Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya
Someone's crying, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's crying, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's crying, Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya
Someone's praying, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's


JOW

If knowledge can create problems, it is not through ignorance that we can solve them.
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Here is a quote on my all time favourite book:

Every once in a while, I get mad. 'The Lorax' came out of my being angry. The ecology books I'd read were dull... In 'The Lorax,' I was out to attack what I think are evil things and let the chips fall where they might.
Dr. Seuss
 
JOW

Offline Theta

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Re: Official Arctic Meltdown Thread
« Reply #101 on: January 11, 2019, 06:52:10 PM »
So, I understand you were trying to be frightening or reassuring with the first comment (since you confirm that we don't need an ice free Arctic for instant venusification), but I don't get what you were trying to get at with the second comment JOW.

Offline John of Wallan

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Re: Official Arctic Meltdown Thread
« Reply #102 on: January 11, 2019, 09:00:06 PM »
So, I understand you were trying to be frightening or reassuring with the first comment (since you confirm that we don't need an ice free Arctic for instant venusification), but I don't get what you were trying to get at with the second comment JOW.

Definitely not trying to frighten.
Trying to inform.
Information lets people prepare. Ignorance and false reassurance just sets up for a bigger fall.   

Not sure about the instant Venusification thing. (Typical of modern kids and their lack of patience. Everything has to be instant!).. Humanity will be in a pile of trouble long before anything like that. Worry about food and habitat.

There is very little difference between needing ice free arctic or not to kick off "John's 4 stages of the Apocalypse". Just a matter of a couple of years at best. A bit like the difference between sitting on bow or stern of the Titanic.



JOW 

Offline RE

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🎵 Standing on the Bow of the Titanic
« Reply #103 on: January 12, 2019, 12:35:37 AM »
A bit like the difference between sitting on bow or stern of the Titanic.
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RE
« Last Edit: January 12, 2019, 12:37:55 AM by RE »
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Offline knarf

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Re: Official Arctic Meltdown Thread
« Reply #104 on: January 12, 2019, 02:10:37 AM »
It sometimes already gets to 50 degrees C in Phoenix in the summer, and 1.6 million people still live there. In Minneapolis a hot day in July is 23 degrees Celsius.

It's more complicated than a simple rise in temperature of 2 degrees ...or even 10 degrees.

It's the disruption of agriculture that causes the problem. Humans can adapt to temperature extremes. We do live in a biosphere, however, that contains a whole lot of other life forms, and we are very co-dependent and we live in symbiosis.

The methane is already being released. Absolutely nobody can really tell us what is going to happen. We are in uncharted territory. I seriously doubt, however, that we'll all be boiled alive one day, or that we'll all go the same year even.

This doesn't mean there isn't a bad problem. It just means that the map (modeling) is not the territory (reality).

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