AuthorTopic: Cliodynamics  (Read 867 times)

Offline K-Dog

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Cliodynamics
« on: January 08, 2017, 11:15:50 PM »
I found a new voice in the collapseosphere!

Peter Turchin has invented a science he calls Cliodynamics to combine history and math or something like that, so we can predict collapse.  I really don't care for the name and I'd prefer the science be named after it emerges when the name is actually needed but there are worse things.

Quote
Cliodynamics: History as Science

By Peter Turchin


Empires rise and fall, populations and economies boom and bust, world religions spread or wither… What are the mechanisms underlying such dynamical processes in history? Are there ‘laws of history’? We do not lack hypotheses to investigate – to take just one instance, more than two hundred explanations have been proposed for why the Roman Empire fell. But we still don’t know which of these hypotheses are plausible, and which should be rejected. More importantly, there is no consensus on what general mechanisms explain the collapse of historical empires. What is needed is a systematic application of the scientific method to history: verbal theories should be translated into mathematical models, precise predictions derived, and then rigorously tested on empirical material. In short, history needs to become an analytical, predictive science (see Arise Cliodynamics).

Cliodynamics (from Clio, the muse of history, and dynamics, the study of why things change with time) is the new transdisciplinary area of research at the intersection of historical macrosociology, economic history/cliometrics, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the construction and analysis of historical databases. Mathematical approaches – modeling historical processes with differential equations or agent-based simulations; sophisticated statistical approaches to data analysis – are a key ingredient in the cliodynamic research program (Why do we need mathematical history?). But ultimately the aim is to discover general principles that explain the functioning and dynamics of actual historical societies.

The community of researchers working on mathematical history and cliodynamics has been rapidly growing in recent years. We now have our own journal, Cliodynamics: the Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution. Although this web page is primarily devoted to my personal research, I also use my blog Cliodynamica to reflect the most significant developments in the field as a whole.

Peter has a blog:

http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/

Where he has keyboarded many an article.

Online Surly1

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Re: Cliodynamics
« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2017, 04:00:52 AM »
I found a new voice in the collapseosphere!

Peter Turchin has invented a science he calls Cliodynamics to combine history and math or something like that, so we can predict collapse.  I really don't care for the name and I'd prefer the science be named after it emerges when the name is actually needed but there are worse things.

//
http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/

Well worth much more than a quick look.
Your caviling about the name notwithstanding, it seems that he has named this study after Clio, the muse of history, which seems apt. One of the nine muses, Clio was "the proclaimer, glorifier and celebrator of history, great deeds and accomplishments" per Wikipedia. The documentation will provide a history of sorts, especially as the incoming band of Trumpanzees seem intent on erasing history, making projects like the Wayback Machine and archive.org that much more important.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline Eddie

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Re: Cliodynamics
« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2017, 04:24:02 AM »
My first thought. (Before reading)

What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Online RE

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Re: Cliodynamics
« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2017, 06:57:46 AM »
I have a Ph.D. in Cliodynamics from Diner University.  Fully accredited  by the Council of Collapse Blogs. You can call me Dr. RE.  :icon_mrgreen:

To earn your Doctorate in Cliodynamics from DU, you need a dissertation with at minimum 100 Blogs of 2000 words each on the subjects of Economics, Geopolitics, History or Science & Technology.  You also need a minimum of 100 hours online active discussion in the Diner classroom.

Submit your blogs today and get started on your Doctorate from Diner University!

Tuition is only $10,000/year which can be financed with a Federally Guaranteed Student Loan.

Dr. RE
SAVE AS MANY AS YOU CAN

Online RE

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Full Ride Scholarships in Cliodynamics at Diner University
« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2017, 07:16:13 AM »
Diner University is now offering a Full Tuition Scholarship in Cliodynamics.

You can compete for the scholarship by writing a Blog and filling out an application in this thread explaining why you should be awarded the scholarship.

This is a $10,000 Value and only a limited number of scholarships will be offered.

Deadline for applications this year is Feb 1, 2017.

Dr. RE
Diner University Chancellor
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