AuthorTopic: Oil Glut: IT'S THE DEMAND, STUPID!  (Read 10428 times)

Offline RE

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🛢️ Chevron Bets Big On Supergiant Oil Field
« Reply #45 on: December 13, 2018, 05:10:25 AM »
No worries, the Super Giant Oil Fields will Save Us!  :icon_sunny:

RE

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Chevron-Bets-Big-On-Supergiant-Oil-Field.html

Chevron Bets Big On Supergiant Oil Field
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Dec 12, 2018, 4:00 PM CST


Chevron announced last week its capital and exploratory budget for 2019, which sees the first annual increase in spending since the 2014 oil price crash.

While most of the investment is geared toward short-cycle projects that could start bringing in cash flows within two years, the U.S. supermajor continues to channel a significant portion of its upstream investment into a major capital-intensive project to boost the production of a supergiant oil field in western Kazakhstan.

Chevron will invest US$4.3 billion in 2019 in the Future Growth Project at the Tengiz field which lies deep beneath the western Kazakhstan steppe—the deepest producing supergiant oil field and the largest single-trap producing reservoir in existence. The investment in boosting production at the giant oil field will take most of Chevron’s US$5.1 billion upstream program for major capital projects in 2019. For this year, Chevron had allocated US$3.7 billion to the Tengiz field expansion project.

The Kazakhstan field expansion and the U.S. shale patch are the two pillars of Chevron’s capital spending for next year—growing shorter-cycle shale production and continuing investments in a supergiant oil field that is expected to pump oil for decades.

For 2019, Chevron has earmarked US$3.6 billion for expanding its production in the Permian and another US$1.6 billion will be invested in other shale plays in the United States. That makes a total of US$5.2 billion for U.S. shale, which is substantially higher than this year’s shale budget of US$4.3 billion.
Related: Will China Turn Its Back On U.S. LNG?

“Our 2019 budget supports a robust portfolio of upstream and downstream investments, highlighted by our world-class Permian Basin position, additional shale and tight development in other basins and our major capital project at TCO in Kazakhstan,” Chevron chairman and CEO Michael K. Wirth said, commenting on next year’s budget.

Chevron holds 50 percent in the operator of the Tengiz field, Tengizchevroil (TCO), in which the other shareholders are Kazakhstan’s state-held energy firm KazMunayGas with 20 percent, ExxonMobil Kazakhstan with 25 percent, and LukArco with 5 percent.
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The so-called Future Growth and Wellhead Pressure Management Project (FGP-WPMP) is planned to increase crude oil production at Tengiz by about 260,000 bpd, and was estimated to cost US$36.8 billion when Chevron approved the expansion project back in 2016.

The FGP-WPMP, with first oil planned for 2022, is expected to boost the Tengiz crude oil production capacity by about 260,000 bpd, and the field’s total production will increase to around 1 million barrels of oil-equivalent per day, Chevron says.

Tengiz and Kazakhstan operations continue to be a priority for Chevron, while the U.S. major is considering selling its interests in the oil industry of another former Soviet republic—Azerbaijan, as it is re-aligning its global operations to its new priorities after the downturn.
Related: The Solar Tech Flying Under The Radar

Chevron is looking to sell its 9.6-percent stake in the giant Azeri oil field Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) in the Caspian Sea and its 8.9-percent interest in the BTC pipeline, which carries oil from the ACG field and condensate from Shah Deniz across Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey.

Chevron is currently reviewing its global asset portfolio and has “decided to initiate the process of marketing, with a view to a potential sale, of our Chevron affiliate interests in the Azeri Chirag and Deep Water Gunashli (ACG) project and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) Pipeline,” the company said in a statement to Reuters last week.

The U.S. oil and gas major is not breaking from the Big Oil pack when it comes to re-aligning priorities for the next few years—betting big on shorter-term cash-flow generators like the U.S. shale patch and high-grading the global portfolio to boost production at major oil assets for decades to come.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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Why much of the country is headed for $4 gas
« Reply #46 on: April 09, 2019, 01:30:30 PM »


April 8, 2019, 3:27 PM ET
By Martha C. White

A consortium of oil-producing countries has taken more than a million barrels a day off the market — and that’s the least of the problems plaguing American gasoline prices.

Across the U.S., regular gas averaged $2.77 a gallon, up 7 cents on the week and 29 cents on the month, according to GasBuddy. Last year, gas prices topped out at $2.98 at the outset of Memorial Day weekend.

Skyrocketing prices are particularly pronounced on the West Coast. According to GasBuddy, California already has the highest gas prices in the country at an average of $3.77 per gallon for regular gas, an increase of 49 cents over last month’s average. GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick DeHaan warned in a Sunday tweet that prices weren’t done going up just yet, predicting that the average price in California will top $4 this week.

“It’s nothing short of spectacular on the West Coast. A trifecta of issues is causing gas prices to surge,” DeHaan said.

Oil prices are climbing, but that only accounts for about one-quarter of the recently higher gas prices American drivers have been facing, he said. A bigger issue is that this is around the time of year when many oil refineries plan maintenance as they make their annual switch to summer-blend fuels.


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna992216
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🛢️ Permian Takes The Crown As World’s Top Oil Field
« Reply #47 on: April 14, 2019, 07:01:34 AM »
King Ghanwar is DEAD!  Long Live King Permian!

RE

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Permian-Takes-The-Crown-As-Worlds-Top-Oil-Field.html

Permian Takes The Crown As World’s Top Oil Field

By Robert Rapier - Apr 13, 2019, 6:00 PM CDT


Last week Saudi Aramco — the national oil company of Saudi Arabia and the world’s largest oil company — lifted a veil of secrecy around the company’s operations. For the first time in decades, operational details for Saudi Aramco were revealed in a bond offering. (A PDF link of the prospectus is here).

The immediate takeaway — which I covered in the previous article — was that the reported breakeven costs for Saudi Aramco were higher than the numbers that are frequently reported. However, other news stories have focused on an apparent bombshell around production at the Saudi Ghawar oilfield, which is the world’s largest conventional onshore oil field.

Conventional wisdom held that Ghawar has been producing 5 million barrels per day (BPD) of crude oil for decades. The prospectus notes that Ghawar has produced more than half of the Kingdom’s cumulative oil production to date, but it reported that 2018 production was only 3.8 million BPD.

That number resulted in several stories that suggested that Ghawar production has peaked and is falling fast. (For example: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed).

I don’t believe this number alone supports such conclusions. I think it is an example of confirmation bias, which refers to a person’s tendency to interpret information as confirmation of existing beliefs.

There is another possible interpretation. Saudi Arabia has long played the role of the world’s swing producer in the oil markets. They maintain spare production capacity. This has allowed them to raise and lower production according to their views of market demand and agreed-upon OPEC quotas.

So, it is possible that Ghawar is simply not operating at full capacity. Given the information from the prospectus, one can just as easily make this conclusion as to conclude that Ghawar production is in decline. I don’t know which interpretation is correct, but we shouldn’t make hasty conclusions based on limited information.
Related: Soaring Permian Output To Cap Oil Rally

Notably, the people most likely to accept the interpretation that Ghawar is rapidly declining are the same people who reject Saudi Arabia’s claim — repeated in the prospectus — that its oil and gas reserves are equivalent to 257 billion barrels. Again, unless there is good objective reasoning for rejecting a reserves number while embracing a production number, this may be confirmation bias in action.

Last week Saudi Aramco — the national oil company of Saudi Arabia and the world’s largest oil company — lifted a veil of secrecy around the company’s operations. For the first time in decades, operational details for Saudi Aramco were revealed in a bond offering. (A PDF link of the prospectus is here).
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The immediate takeaway — which I covered in the previous article — was that the reported breakeven costs for Saudi Aramco were higher than the numbers that are frequently reported. However, other news stories have focused on an apparent bombshell around production at the Saudi Ghawar oilfield, which is the world’s largest conventional onshore oil field.

Conventional wisdom held that Ghawar has been producing 5 million barrels per day (BPD) of crude oil for decades. The prospectus notes that Ghawar has produced more than half of the Kingdom’s cumulative oil production to date, but it reported that 2018 production was only 3.8 million BPD.

That number resulted in several stories that suggested that Ghawar production has peaked and is falling fast. (For example: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed).

I don’t believe this number alone supports such conclusions. I think it is an example of confirmation bias, which refers to a person’s tendency to interpret information as confirmation of existing beliefs.
Related: BP Pulls Out Of China’s Shale Patch

There is another possible interpretation. Saudi Arabia has long played the role of the world’s swing producer in the oil markets. They maintain spare production capacity. This has allowed them to raise and lower production according to their views of market demand and agreed-upon OPEC quotas.

So, it is possible that Ghawar is simply not operating at full capacity. Given the information from the prospectus, one can just as easily make this conclusion as to conclude that Ghawar production is in decline. I don’t know which interpretation is correct, but we shouldn’t make hasty conclusions based on limited information.

Notably, the people most likely to accept the interpretation that Ghawar is rapidly declining are the same people who reject Saudi Arabia’s claim — repeated in the prospectus — that its oil and gas reserves are equivalent to 257 billion barrels. Again, unless there is good objective reasoning for rejecting a reserves number while embracing a production number, this may be confirmation bias in action.

By Robert Rapier
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Re: Permian Takes The Crown As World’s Top Oil Field
« Reply #48 on: April 14, 2019, 08:05:22 AM »
Yet, we are going to be seeing more of this:



And needless to remind anyone on this forum of that ultimately :

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/5Ae1fg44l7E" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/5Ae1fg44l7E</a>
« Last Edit: April 14, 2019, 08:49:26 AM by UnhingedBecauseLucid »
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Re: Permian Takes The Crown As World’s Top Oil Field
« Reply #49 on: April 14, 2019, 08:57:06 AM »
Yet, we are going to be seeing more of this:



And needless to remind anyone on this forum of that ultimately :

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/5Ae1fg44l7E" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/5Ae1fg44l7E</a>

The whole article,

https://srsroccoreport.com/next-oil-domino-to-fall-mexico-becomes-a-net-oil-importer/
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Re: Oil Glut: IT'S THE DEMAND, STUPID!
« Reply #50 on: April 14, 2019, 10:26:45 AM »
From Jenna Orkin

Quote of the day:

Dmitry Orlov:  Quietly, the US has gone back to importing Venezuelan crude: 139 bbl/day for week ending April 5. The rest of the Venezuelan crude has been going to India and the EU, while the US has been making up the shortfall with Russian imports. You may have heard that the US is swimming in oil from fracking. Well, there's a problem with that oil: it's crap and nobody wants it.

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Re: Oil Glut: IT'S THE DEMAND, STUPID!
« Reply #51 on: April 14, 2019, 11:34:56 AM »
From Jenna Orkin

Quote of the day:

Dmitry Orlov:  Quietly, the US has gone back to importing Venezuelan crude: 139 bbl/day for week ending April 5. The rest of the Venezuelan crude has been going to India and the EU, while the US has been making up the shortfall with Russian imports. You may have heard that the US is swimming in oil from fracking. Well, there's a problem with that oil: it's crap and nobody wants it.

Dmitry is crap and nobody wants him.

Quote
The bitumen in Venezuela’s Orinoco basin and northern Alberta also requires massive geological tinkering, says Skinner.

How heavy oil got so heavy

Both heavy oil deposits actually began as super-giant fields of light oil. But over millions of years bacteria chewed up most of the hydrogen atoms degrading the resource into a thick heavy molasses-like tar. This goo can’t be turned into a commercial fuel stock without extensive upgrading to restore the ratio of hydrogen to carbon atoms.

To do so, hydrogen must be added to the bitumen or (more commonly) carbon must be subtracted, by “coking.” Coking creates mountains of petroleum coke, a coal-like substance.

Reversing geology, adds Skinner, “requires huge amounts of energy, labor, water, steel and capital. It’s all about the Second Law of Thermodynamics.”

Shale gas and tight oil, also belong to the difficult camp. They exist in source rocks where hydrocarbons may have been overcooked or not yet migrated up into porous reservoirs. As a consequence it requires some fiddling to wrestle them out of the shale. “To be graphic, it amounts to giving the rocks an enema,” says Skinner.

http://energyskeptic.com/2016/difficult-oil/

Dmitry knows that fracked oil is actually more valuable than Venezuela's brown stuff.  But since fracked oil is not without issues including volatile gasses he plays on general ignorance and gets an adolescent rush.  It is his style.  Beware the pied pipers.  Dmitry should be due for a new boat engine soon.  Maybe you can help with funds.  Dmitry is never afraid to ask. 

Dmitry is not the only pied piper in it for the beans but he has a well known reputation for burning bridges.

Quote
A deeper look reveals that the causes of Venezuela’s oil problems are slightly more complicated than the ‘Chávez killed it’ meme. Since peaking around 1997, Venezuelan oil production has declined over the last two decades, but in recent years has experienced a precipitous fall. There can be little doubt that serious mismanagement in the oil industry has played a role in this decline. However, there is a fundamental driver other than mismanagement which the press has consistently ignored in reporting on Venezuala’s current crisis: the increasingly fraught economics of oil.

The vast bulk of Venezuela’s oil is not conventional crude, but unconventional “heavy oil”, a highly viscous liquid that requires unconventional techniques to extract and flow, often with heat from steam, and/or mixing it with lighter forms of crude in the refining process. Heavy oil thus has a higher cost of extraction than normal crude, and a lower market price due to the refining difficulties. In theory, heavy oil can be produced at below break-even prices to a profit, but greater investment is still needed to get to that point.

The higher costs of extraction and refining have played a key role in making Venezuela’s oil production efforts increasingly unprofitable and unsustainable. When oil prices were at their height between 2005 and 2008, Venezuela was able to weather the inefficiencies and mismanagement in its oil industry due to much higher profits thanks to prices between $100 and $150 a barrel. Global oil prices were spiking as global conventional crude oil production began to plateau, causing an increasing shift to unconventional sources.

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-02-04/venezuelas-collapse-is-a-window-into-how-the-oil-age-will-unravel/

Quote
In theory, heavy oil can be produced at below break-even prices to a profit
  ???  EROEI would go down as the heavy stuff funds its own extraction and temperature in Venezuela would rise to be too hot for people.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2019, 12:27:23 PM by K-Dog »
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Re: Oil Glut: IT'S THE DEMAND, STUPID!
« Reply #52 on: April 14, 2019, 11:46:51 AM »
From Jenna Orkin

Quote of the day:

Dmitry Orlov:  Quietly, the US has gone back to importing Venezuelan crude: 139 bbl/day for week ending April 5. The rest of the Venezuelan crude has been going to India and the EU, while the US has been making up the shortfall with Russian imports. You may have heard that the US is swimming in oil from fracking. Well, there's a problem with that oil: it's crap and nobody wants it.

Wal-Mart will float the shit on their shelves, rest assured. Don't Buy Big Blue  :emthdown:
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https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/The-Permian-Craze-Is-Fizzling-But-Shale-Oil-Production-Isnt.html

The Permian Craze Is Fizzling … But Shale Oil Production Isn’t
By Julianne Geiger - Jun 17, 2019, 10:00 PM CDT


The frenzied Permania that had oil and gas companies rushing to the O&G hotspot may be on the outs, but production in the industry’s number one basin has not, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s Drilling Productivity Report released on Monday.

Oil production in the Permian basin is set to hit a brand-new record next month, the EIA said, expecting a 55,000 barrel per day increase month on month, reaching 4.226 million barrels per day. The Niobrara and Bakken basins are also set for an increase in July, of 10,000 and 11,000 barrels per day, respectively. The Permian accounts for nearly half of the production of the top seven basins, and is nearly three times as prolific as the next most prolific basin, The Bakken.

For the seven major basins that the EIA tracks in its monthly Drilling Productivity Report, July’s production is set to increase by 70,000 month over month, reaching 8.520 million bpd—also a new record.

This shale oil production has helped to catapult the United States into the top crude oil producer in the world at 12.6 million bpd as of the first week of June, even ahead of the titans of oil industry old—Russia, whose production hit 10.87 million bpd that same week; and Saudi Arabia, whose production hit 9.690 million bpd according to the last official OPEC MOMR.

While oil production is still on an uphill climb, the number of DUCs decreased in May, from 8,360 in April to 8,283 in May.

Gas production in the seven most prolific shale plays is also expected to increase in July, from 80,564 million cubic feet per day in June to 81,362 million cubic feet per day in July.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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🛢️ U.S. Oil Rig Count Takes Sharp Turn Downward
« Reply #54 on: September 21, 2019, 08:08:30 AM »
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Oil-Rig-Count-Takes-Sharp-Turn-Downward.html

U.S. Oil Rig Count Takes Sharp Turn Downward
By Julianne Geiger - Sep 20, 2019, 12:27 PM CDT


The US oil and gas rig count fell again, decreasing by 18 for the week, according to Baker Hughes, but US oil companies are still pumping oil at record rates.

The total oil and gas rig count now stands at 868, or 185 down from this time last year.

The total number of active oil rigs in the United States decreased by 14 according to the report, reaching 719. The number of active gas rigs decreased by 5 to reach 148.

Oil rigs have seen a loss of 147 rigs year on year, with gas rigs down 38 since this time last year, compared to 858 and 187 active rigs, respectively, at the beginning of the year.

Still, in the United States, weekly oil production is still near an all-time high. So while the number of oil rigs have declined by 158 this year alone, production has grown from 11.7 million bpd at the beginning of the year, to 12.4 million bpd for week ending September 13.

Oil prices were trading slightly up on Friday ahead of the data, with the huge spikes seen earlier in the week in the wake of the attacks on Aramco’s infrastructure now somewhat subdued.

At 11:39 am EDT today, WTI was up $0.38 (0.65%) at $58.57, still up $3 week over week.  Brent crude was trading up on the day as well, by $0.29 (0.46%) at $63.62, also up roughly $3 per barrel for the week. 

Canada’s overall rig count decreased this week as well. Oil and gas rigs decreased by 15, after last week’s 13-rig decrease. Oil and gas rigs in Canada are down 78 year on year.

WTI was trading up 1.44% shortly after data release, while Brent was trading up 1.23%.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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Re: Oil Glut: IT'S THE DEMAND, STUPID!
« Reply #55 on: September 21, 2019, 05:18:01 PM »
As go the rigs, so goes the production. Rigs are wonderful leading indicators.

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SHELL OIL CORPORATION BURNING GAS FOR MONTHS BECAUSE THEY CAN’T SELL IT
« Reply #56 on: October 06, 2019, 02:16:49 PM »



John Vibes, Truth Theory
Waking Times

The Shell oil corporation is burning off large volumes of ethane because they can’t sell it to their regular customer, which is a plant on the same property owned by ExxonMobil. The location is officially known as “Mossmorran,” and is used by numerous oil and gas companies. Residents near the property where the ethane is burning are complaining of pollution, light, and noise coming from the site.

Residents were hoping that the burning would only be happening for a short amount of time, but the ExxonMobil plant won’t be operational again until at least November. The plant is currently under a construction process that will cost at least £140m and is expected to last through November. Until then, Shell intends to continue the fuel burnings, insisting that they have nowhere to store it and no choice but to burn it.

According to BBC, a Shell Fife Natural Gas Liquids spokesman said, “The (ExxonMobil) Fife Ethylene Plant is currently the primary customer for ethane supplied by the Shell Fife Natural Gas Liquids plant, and processes ethane into ethylene. Our ground flares are burning excess ethane as the Fife Ethylene plant is currently not available for receiving the ethane to process it into ethylene.

“We have taken measures within the North Sea (SEGAL) supply system to help to manage the situation and are actively exploring alternative ethane outlets during the temporary shutdown. However, the volume taken by the Fife Ethylene plant is significant and any solution is likely to be for some volume rather than the full volume of ethane the Fife Natural Gas Liquids plant produces,” the statement added.

The burns have been going on for months and making life horrible for the surrounding community. However, the site has been a point of frustration for locals and environmental activists for many years, because this sort of activity is unfortunately extremely common.

Residents have posted videos to social media, showing how the fires from the plant light up the sky at night.

    Very loud and unsettling noise from mossmorran tonight 😔 #Mossmorran pic.twitter.com/neoeL2KDQH

    — Danni JP Newlands (@ProctorDanni) April 21, 2019

The company insists that the fires are safe and heavily controlled, but the entire surrounding area is very concerned about their health and safety.

    All safe is it? Nothing to worry about they say?#mossmorran pic.twitter.com/4YVgF2um6U

    — claire graham (@cg19801) April 24, 2019

The fires can be seen and heard from miles away.

    @exxonmobil_fep want to sleep but cant because #mossmorran is so loud maye may not sound like it but so loud pic.twitter.com/KRKBqiaTmr

    — annabel murphy (@AnnabelMurphy95) April 23, 2019

The Scottish Environment Protection Agency has received at least 1,400 complaints this year relating to the site, most of which are from local residents concerned about their health and well-being, according to BBC.

James Glen, chairman of the Mossmorran Action Group, said that his organization has received hundreds of reports from people concerned about their health.

“People are suffering breathing difficulties, headaches and sore eyes but they are also concerned about rare cancers rates as well as common cancers,” Glen said.

There are also many children with asthma in the area, who end up having increased difficulty breathing on days when the burns are stronger.

Things have gotten worse than ever at the site since Shell has begun burning such large volumes of ethane, but pollution, loud noises and flashes of light throughout the evening is common for the area. When the ExxonMobil plant is fixed, many of these problems will continue to persist, but likely won’t be as bad.
About the Author

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🛢️ Is It Time To Worry About Peak Oil Demand?
« Reply #57 on: November 05, 2019, 05:45:53 PM »
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-It-Time-To-Worry-About-Peak-Oil-Demand.html

Is It Time To Worry About Peak Oil Demand?
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Nov 04, 2019, 10:00 AM CST


Oil demand will continue to rise at least for the next decade, and possibly longer, but it is possible that peak oil demand could come at some point in the late 2020s if governments around the world implement low-carbon policies more rigorously, Neil Atkinson, Head of the Oil Industry & Markets Division at the International Energy Agency (IEA), told CNBC on Monday.

“If the world does implement policies more rigorously, peak oil demand could come at some point in the late 2020s or in the 2030s,” Atkinson said. 

The IEA isn’t putting an exact ‘date’ for ‘peak oil’ because no one knows when it will come, according to the IEA’s official.

“What we do know is even when oil demand does peak at some point in the future, it isn’t going to drop off a cliff because substitutability for oil in so many sectors is still elusive,” Atkinson said.

Shipping, aviation, trucking, and petrochemicals are still huge driving forces of oil demand, the IEA’s executive said, adding that global population growth is the driver of all these industries.

The key driving force of oil demand growth is population growth, with the global population expected to grow to some 9.5 billion in fifteen years’ time, Atkinson told CNBC.
Related: Protect The Oil: Trump’s Top Priority In The Middle East

True, there are signs that oil demand growth is moderating, but “we must stress that it is still growth,” he said. Oil demand growth is moderating due to electric vehicles (EVs) and the power generation sector, where oil has already lost a big part of its share. Yet, people with rising incomes in the emerging economies will continue to buy mostly SUVs, underpinning oil demand, he said.

Analysts and top commodity traders see oil demand peaking at some point in the 2030s, but oil companies say that peak oil is nowhere in sight and there is still room to grow as demand will continue to rise in the foreseeable future.

Earlier this year, Amin Nasser, the chief executive of the world’s largest oil company Saudi Aramco, rebuked all those who predict the demise of the oil industry in the near future, saying that views that the world will soon run on anything but oil “are not based on logic and facts, and are formed mostly in response to pressure and hype.” 

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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Re: 🛢️ Is It Time To Worry About Peak Oil Demand?
« Reply #58 on: November 05, 2019, 06:59:44 PM »
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-It-Time-To-Worry-About-Peak-Oil-Demand.html

Is It Time To Worry About Peak Oil Demand?
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Nov 04, 2019, 10:00 AM CST


Oil demand will continue to rise at least for the next decade, and possibly longer, but it is possible that peak oil demand could come at some point in the late 2020s if governments around the world implement low-carbon policies more rigorously, Neil Atkinson, Head of the Oil Industry & Markets Division at the International Energy Agency (IEA), told CNBC on Monday.

“If the world does implement policies more rigorously, peak oil demand could come at some point in the late 2020s or in the 2030s,” Atkinson said. 

The IEA isn’t putting an exact ‘date’ for ‘peak oil’ because no one knows when it will come, according to the IEA’s official.

“What we do know is even when oil demand does peak at some point in the future, it isn’t going to drop off a cliff because substitutability for oil in so many sectors is still elusive,” Atkinson said.

Shipping, aviation, trucking, and petrochemicals are still huge driving forces of oil demand, the IEA’s executive said, adding that global population growth is the driver of all these industries.

The key driving force of oil demand growth is population growth, with the global population expected to grow to some 9.5 billion in fifteen years’ time, Atkinson told CNBC.
Related: Protect The Oil: Trump’s Top Priority In The Middle East

True, there are signs that oil demand growth is moderating, but “we must stress that it is still growth,” he said. Oil demand growth is moderating due to electric vehicles (EVs) and the power generation sector, where oil has already lost a big part of its share. Yet, people with rising incomes in the emerging economies will continue to buy mostly SUVs, underpinning oil demand, he said.

Analysts and top commodity traders see oil demand peaking at some point in the 2030s, but oil companies say that peak oil is nowhere in sight and there is still room to grow as demand will continue to rise in the foreseeable future.

Earlier this year, Amin Nasser, the chief executive of the world’s largest oil company Saudi Aramco, rebuked all those who predict the demise of the oil industry in the near future, saying that views that the world will soon run on anything but oil “are not based on logic and facts, and are formed mostly in response to pressure and hype.” 

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

Redefining peak oil one lie at a time.
Under ideal conditions of temperature and pressure the organism will grow without limit.

Offline RE

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Re: 🛢️ Is It Time To Worry About Peak Oil Demand?
« Reply #59 on: November 05, 2019, 07:37:42 PM »
Redefining peak oil one lie at a time.

Indeed.

RE
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