AuthorTopic: On the need for new more accurate doom memes  (Read 527 times)

Offline roamer

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On the need for new more accurate doom memes
« on: March 22, 2017, 08:51:39 AM »
So having gone to the ďdarkĒ side a couple times and back I have to say I find alot of the green spin appalling shallow and caught often in its own propaganda.  If doom is to facilitate and foster the creation of real alternatives it must find better memes.

Lets look at the frackers.  At present they are generally accepted to be a complete evil amongst most liberal, green circles.  They are causing earthquakes, poisoning water, killing the earth.  Each of those accusations comes from such a distorted interpretation of the overall process that I have to wonder if its not the right that is coming up with these memes because they make their holders look so foolish.

Here is an alternative view of them I find more plausible.  Look at the run up of fuel prices pre 2008 crash.  The financial system was beholden to KSA as a swing producer and of course they were not going to play capitalism as hard as they could, just like our asshole corps do as well.  The result was an immense transfer of wealth to those regions with no stop in sight.  Fracking was a risky counter made possible by QE and eventually the crass fracking cowyboys forced KSA out of the swing producer role and put a cap on what wouldíve been runaway fuel prices and likely real economic implosion.

Now alot of people got burnt investing in shady operators, but we arenít talking poor folks not being able to eat because of it.  Nor for any of the other evils can i find solid evidence of it.

So really were is the real evil here, what is it that is so abhored?  I suspect its the continuation of BAU that really gets people here and fossil fuels being the center of the whole arrangement a natural target of attack.

I donít like BAU either nor most of the system.  I donít however want to be part of a shallow false antagonistic meme set.  I want freedom and autonomy and donít want a false enemy set, whose products I will use many times over in my journey to freedom.

This is just one example of many of the various aspects of mass industrialisation that are demonized.  And in general the whole oppositional tact taken is self defeating out of its wrongness.  Freedom, autonomy, self determination, those are values I want to get behind.  I donít want to through implicit association get drawn into the shit pool of memes talk smack and make enemies.  And to the point  of this original thread those memes are a dead end. 

Offline RE

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Re: On the need for new more accurate doom memes
« Reply #1 on: March 22, 2017, 09:15:56 AM »
The problem remains an economic one mainly, not an absolute energy one.  It's an affordability question all across the board, not just the end consumer but everyone in the middle using the energy to do bizness.

Prices go too high on drawing up the energy, everyone who depends on it can''t afford to buy it.  Prices go too low, extractors are losing money.  The way they make up for that (currently) is by increasing the debt load they have, and you see that all across the board, from Saudi to the Frackers. It's not sustainable in perpetuity.  It is in fact quite remarkable it has kept going as long as it has.

It's real hard to say when this credit-energy system cracks.  Hill's model puts it around 2020.  It's a fair guess, but still a guess.  I go more for around 2025 these days, but also just a guess.

Meanwhile, while you wait for the hammer to drop here, you do the best you can to prep up for it.  It will come here at some point, and it is real hard for me to see that "some point" as being more than a decade out now.

RE
« Last Edit: March 22, 2017, 09:19:12 AM by RE »
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Offline roamer

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Re: On the need for new more accurate doom memes
« Reply #2 on: March 22, 2017, 09:35:53 AM »
So you are saying that eventually the debt of either the producers or the consumers will become an insurmountable economic problem?  That might be getting closer to a better meme. 

I like to think about the global industrial economic system as an organism with us being cells.  Not an accurate model of course but something to at least start with for envisioning the complexity.  It metabolizes energy, and raw resources and then allocates them to cells which are us as end consumers.  The system basically has alot of cancer right now as some cells have hijacked excessive consumption at expense of overall organism.  Then there are all the resource constraints coming up with a growth in overall organism size.  The demand coming up is for us to have a radical evolution in overall metabolic efficiency whilst simotaneously transitioning to a different fuel source (solar).  In evolutionary terms this is a cambriam era sized evolutionary jump being demanded.  Any tour through a walmart store suggests cancer devolution is winning.

We need a global economic metabolic evolutionary jump.

Offline roamer

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Re: On the need for new more accurate doom memes
« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2017, 09:43:19 AM »
Actually the more i think about it modelling the economic system as a metabolic system is not a bad way to go at all.  Cancer, diabetes, obessity, starvation all these ailments of man are just interdependent reflections of the larger system of which we are part of.  Our struggle then may very well be to undergo a massive metabolic evolutionary shift.

Offline RE

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Re: On the need for new more accurate doom memes
« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2017, 02:33:11 PM »
So you are saying that eventually the debt of either the producers or the consumers will become an insurmountable economic problem?  That might be getting closer to a better meme.

Steve has been detailing this concept for quite some time.  It's how he came up with the Triangle of Doom and was able to predict the crash in Oil Prices to the MONTH from more than two years out ahead of it.

The Total Credit available at any given time is distributed out between extractors and consumers.  Credit provided to extractors is credit removed from consumers.  So while the extractors have been showered with credit, consumers are starved of it, so they can't afford to retire the debts of the extractors.  Eventually, the extractors will go tits up, the consumers are already for the most part, except for the Richest 1% making over $250K a year.  That's basically all that is left of the economy, everybody else is underwater and drowning in credit card debt, student loans and mortgages.  They can't afford to buy new Teslas, and if they still have a car they drive it only when necessary.

The credit machine worked when there was a large pool of easy to drag up oil.  It provided a thermodynamic potential to run the machine.  I wrote about this in Of Heat Sinks & Debt Sinks: A Thermodynamic View of Money and also in The Money Valve series.

So you are saying that eventually the debt of either the producers or the consumers will become an insurmountable economic problem?  That might be getting closer to a better meme.

Yes that is what I am saying and have been saying for a long time.  Just you were not ready to listen to it before.  You were too fed up with all the "failed" Peak Oil pundits you listened to before and who ruined your life leading you down a wrong path.

RE
« Last Edit: March 22, 2017, 03:56:44 PM by RE »
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Offline Eddie

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Re: On the need for new more accurate doom memes
« Reply #5 on: March 22, 2017, 06:05:15 PM »
It's really hard to find a good epiphany video.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/WjfHnCjy3Pc&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/WjfHnCjy3Pc&fs=1</a>
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

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Re: On the need for new more accurate doom memes
« Reply #6 on: March 22, 2017, 06:21:29 PM »
It's really hard to find a good epiphany video.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/WjfHnCjy3Pc&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/WjfHnCjy3Pc&fs=1</a>

The trip down the Rabbit Hole to find the Epiphany can be somewhat disconcerting.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/tNXpnufLVkc" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/tNXpnufLVkc</a>

RE
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