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Messages - John of Wallan

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1
Economics / Re: Hyperinflation or Deflation?
« on: April 15, 2021, 04:32:01 PM »
Come on fellas, Lets have some predictions to break the boredom:

1. When will markets crash and by how much?
2. When will property bubble in Oz burst?
3. What is the world going to look like in 5 and 10 years time?

Winner gets a sheep station. There are a few cheap ones out West.

JOW

My short answers.
1. In the next 3 months.
2. 2022
3, Watch Mad Max. (The original 1979 film) .
My long answers are a few pages back from memory..

Alan Watts is an arrogant, pompous, phony...he is the Wests super star of all eastern philosophy. Take him with a grain of salt. The point in posting that video was it is just speculation predicting the unknowable future. But I am addicted to seeing the future in visions. Sometimes I get close, other times not so much. So many things can effect the prediction along the way, but who cares.

1. I don't think the markets will crash any time soon. The billionaires are stuffing their coffers and are making more money everyday with their super algorithms to glean .5 cents on thousands of investments.  International trade is still very important. When there is still buying and selling at such a high volume the market will thrive...the rest of us will be deprived.

2. I don't have the experience to predict the housing bubble there, but this guy thinks the housing market is in deep trouble, NOW.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/YPnsszIEYIM&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/YPnsszIEYIM&fs=1</a>

3. This is a tough one. The way things are going here in the FSOA, none of us will be alive to have a future if the mass shootings keep happening EVERYDAY. :) I think there is going to be a fourth wave of the pandemic from the variants, and the vaccines will be ineffective to STOP it from continuing. Which means continued social, economic, psychological, etc. disruptions. 2021 will be a cluster fuck that is going to make 2020 look like a cake walk. Climate crisis will worsen as well which will complicate everything even more than it would be anyway. The political climate here and world wide will become even more continuous, fighting for the last morsels of resources. I plan on divesting everything possible to become as self-reliant as possible. The church owns our land, Misa and I are both retired, so we will spend as little as possible, and purchase as skillfully as possible.
  I also think the third world countries are doomed...which creates millions of migrants. Jesus! What are we going to do with all the displaced people?
  So to sum up. It is going to get worse exponentially over the next 10 years and as RE has reminded us many times " I SEE DEAD PEOPLE!".

Some more ramblings:
Rest assured we are headed for a clusterfuck.

1. Stock market
Our stock market will follow Merika's lead with about 1 days lag! You guys go into a correction, next day we crash. With unemployment, huge deficit spending, social issues, war mongering and stock market PE ratios in the crazy ionisphere, I cant see Merikan markets making it to October without something major breaking. Guys at the top will still be ok. They will get out (They are now), and will have all their money in cash and gold after stuffing all the bad stocks into hedge funds and palming off into pension plans and unsuspection muppet investors .. Central bank will ramp up its printing even more ensurig hyper inflation ensues. Who know, in dollar terms the stock market may even recover and reach new all time high levels every day for years to come as the currency goes to zero. Think Venezuela. 

2. Housing
House prices in Oz have to come down. Either that or they inflate the price away like what you guys in Merika are doing... $1m house might be servicable if wages are $150/hr. 2nd option wont happen in a hurry, as we have somewhat of an aversion to deficit spending here in Oz... So far its been fairly limited and supposedly short term. It also hits out currency pretty hard when we do as we are a small economy and we dont have reserve currency status, so it is usualy curtailed, even by the more left leaning politicians.. Never say never though.
Wages have not grown much in 20 years. We paid $19 an hour in the early 2000's for unskilled labourers. We only pay $25 an hour now. ($Aus). 25% in 21 years. Thats about 1% a year compaunding I would think. I bet costs have gone up more than 1% a year!.
Someone on low wages, even with 2 incomes cant afford houses and have taken on huge mortgages while interest rates are low assuming they will sell them and make a profit rather than ever pay it down. The stock market will tank, the ecconomy will slow and house prices will start to fall. Eventually the prices will come back to afordable levels. On the way it will overshoot as all the people with huge mortgages will get margin calls from their banks, who have loaned out money with 5% deposits and up to 50% income to service loans, and quite a few interest only payments for first 5 years. What could possibly go wromg?
You lose a job, or get OT cut back in hard times, or your kids hit high school, where the big costs start raking in, and you cant make payments.
In Oz its not like Merika. You cant walk away from bad house loans. Default on the loan and the bank takes the house, sells it and chases you for the outstading amount.
I think 2022 is the year of the housing crash. There is a lot of mortgage stress around, and the job keeper schemes run by our morons in Canberra has just finished, as has all the deferement of payments periods a lot of banks were offering. Not forgiveness of payments, deferement... In a few months those without enough income will start to default and get foreclosed on. Banks will take 3 to 6 months to get paperwork in order to start foreclosures.

I saw this in 1990. I came to Melbourne with no money, no qualifications and had just left the military with a stuffed leg. Got jobs for a couple of years in a panel shop then driving a truck until I went back to school and did engineering. First job in a panel shop the supervison had bought ahouse 2 years earlier for $140K in the roaring greed is good 80's. (A lot of money in those in those days) He still owed $120K and his wife wanted to stop work to start a family. On his wage he could not afford the mortgage so looked at selling. House was now worth $90K in the depth of the reccesion. So much for houses cant go down in price.. He waited a few years. He had a choice. A lot of people wont have a choice.   
At least in a year or 3 my sons will be able to afford a house. Will be a lot of pain in the meantime.

Thats the trivial distractions on the way to the big final act;


3. The fuure
Look North. As soon as we get an Ice Free Arctic, and its very close, this is the time to start planning for Mad Max. Weather paterns are already disrupted. Ice free arctic will cause havoc with Northern Hemispher weather paterns and crops, resulting in natural disasters unheard of followed by food shortages. Southern Hemisphere will be a year or 2 behind. Refugee crisis like we have nexer seen before will will hit the globe when 3 or 4 billion people cant live in their current location anymore.

I too see dead people.
 
JOW

2
Environment / Re: The Environment Board
« on: April 09, 2021, 07:42:58 PM »
It seems we are going to amuse ourselves to death.
If ever a song sumed up where we are headed this surely must be it.

We watched the tragedy unfold
We did as we were told


JOW

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gv-yZ6sVeyw

Amused to Death
Roger Waters

Doctor Doctor, what is wrong with me
This supermarket life is getting long
What is the heart life of a colour TV
What is the shelf life of a teenage queen
Ooh western woman
Ooh western girl
News hound sniffs the air
When Jessica Hahn goes down
He latches on to that symbol of detachment
Attracted by the peeling away of feeling
The celebrity of the abused shell, the belle
Ooh western woman
Ooh western girl
Ooh western woman
Ooh western girl
And the children on Melrose
Strut their stuff
Is absolute zero cold enough
And out in the valley, warm and clean
The little ones sit by their TV screens
No thoughts to think
No tears to cry
All sucked dry
Down to the very last breath
Bartender what is wrong with me?
Why am I so out of breath?
The captain said excuse me ma'am
This species has amused itself to death
Amused itself to death
It has amused itself to death
Amused itself to death
We watched the tragedy unfold
We did as we were told
We bought and sold
It was the greatest show on earth
But then it was over
We ohhed and aahed
We drove our racing cars
We ate our last few jars of caviar
And somewhere out there in the stars
A keen-eyed look-out
Spied a flickering light
Our last hurrah
Our last hurrah
And when they found our shadows
Grouped 'round the TV sets
They ran down every lead
They repeated every test
They checked out all the data on their lists
And then, the alien anthropologists
Admitted they were still perplexed
But on eliminating every other reason
For our sad demise
They logged the only explanation left
This species has amused itself to death
No tears to cry, no feelings left
This species has amused itself to death
Amused itself to death
Amused itself to death (repeating)
(Switch channels)
"Years later, I saw Bill Hubbard's name on the memorial to the missing at Aras. And I... when I saw his name I was absolutely transfixed; it was as though he... he was now a human being instead of some sort of nightmarish memory of how I had to leave him, all those years ago. And I felt relieved, and ever since then I've felt happier about it, because always before, whenever I thought of him, I said to myself, 'Was there something else that I could have done?' And that always sort of worried me. And having seen him, and his name in the register - as you know in the memorials there's a little safe, there's a register in there with every name - and seeing his name and his name on the memorial; it sort of lightened my... heart, if you like."
"When was it that you saw his name on the memorial?"
"Ah, when I was eighty-seven, that would be the year, ninete... eighty-four, nineteen eighty-four."

3
Economics / Re: Hyperinflation or Deflation?
« on: April 09, 2021, 07:34:14 PM »
Chicken.
JOW

4
Economics / Re: Hyperinflation or Deflation?
« on: April 08, 2021, 03:46:39 PM »
Come on fellas, Lets have some predictions to break the boredom:

1. When will markets crash and by how much?
2. When will property bubble in Oz burst?
3. What is the world going to look like in 5 and 10 years time?

Winner gets a sheep station. There are a few cheap ones out West.

JOW

My short answers.
1. In the next 3 months.
2. 2022
3, Watch Mad Max. (The original 1979 film) .
My long answers are a few pages back from memory..

5
Environment / Interesting summary of climate change
« on: April 04, 2021, 12:13:02 AM »
Looks like an honest summary of where we are.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Deaz3UN0rw

Change is coming.... Wont be voluntary.

JOW

6
Thursday, April 1, 2021.
This will showcasing the Italian Government as a leader in the EU.
A leader of what, who knows?
Hell is a place with Italian government, German police, English food, French engineering and Swiss lovers.

JOW

Link:
https://thesenecaeffect.blogspot.com/

Text:
Thursday, April 1, 2021
The Neutrino Tunnel Under the Alps Will be Finally Built, Declares Italian Minister Mariastella Gelmini.
 
The new neutrino tunnel from Central Italy to Switzerland will be based on gender parity hiring practices. Here, four young miners are ready to start their work at a tunnel that will be about 750 km long (image source)
 
Ms. Mariastella Gelmini, currently Minister of Regional Affairs and Autonomies of the Italian Government, has announced today that the Neutrino Tunnel from the CERN in Switzerland and the Gran Sasso National Laboratory, Italy, has been approved by the Italian Government as part of the actions financed by the European Recovery Funds.

Ms. Mariastella Gelmini is on record for having mentioned the tunnel in a 2011 press release, when she was minister of Public Education and Scientific Research. She was heavily criticized for that, since no such tunnel existed at that time. But now, 10 years later, it appears clear that Gelmini's statement was prophetic.


The construction is expected to start before the end of 2021. It will involve a considerable financial effort since the distance between the two laboratiories is about 750 km. But the challenge, declared Ms. Gelmini, is worth the effort since it opens the way to attain speeds higher than light. These speeds, she added, could be especially useful for the members of the current Italian government were to need to leave Rome in a hurry.

Mr. Mario Draghi, prime minister of the Italian government, praised Ms. Gelmini statement and hinted that the new tunnel may be named in her honor when it will be completed. He added that superluminal speed may be a welcome feature for monetary transfers all over the world.

Mr. Roberto Speranza, Italian ministry of health, also praised the construction of the new tunnel, but declared that the superluminal neutrinos arriving in Italy will have to be quarantined for a certain period as they could be carriers of viral infections.

PS:
Heaven is a place with Italian lovers, German engineering, English police, French food and Swiss government.
JOW

7
I am amazed at the arogance of these idiots who believe they can change the ecco-system without unintended consequences.
Cliamte change is already changing the ecco-system with lots of unintended consequences!
The more complex a system is the more it will be chaotic in nature with non-linear and unforseen reactions to diffferent inputs.

What could possibly go wrong?

JOW

Link:
https://www.rt.com/news/519904-sweden-experiment-dim-sun-gates/

Text:
Sweden axes Bill Gates-funded Harvard experiment aiming to DIM THE SUN to fight climate change amid outcry from activists
2 Apr, 2021 01:17
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Sweden axes Bill Gates-funded Harvard experiment aiming to DIM THE SUN to fight climate change amid outcry from activists
FILE PHOTO. ©  Reuters / Red Bull Content Pool / Keith Ladzinski
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Sweden’s space agency has called off a geoengineering experiment to determine whether blotting out the sun with aerosols could reverse global warming. Funded by Bill Gates, the project stoked fierce opposition from eco groups.
Proposed by researchers at Harvard University, the Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment, or SCoPEx, ultimately planned to release a cloud of calcium carbonate – more commonly known as chalk dust – into the atmosphere from a high-altitude balloon to study its effects on sunlight reaching earth. The project proved too controversial, however, and on Wednesday the Swedish Space Corporation (SSC) said that a test flight set for June would not move forward.

“The scientific community is divided regarding geoengineering, including any related technology tests such as the planned technical balloon test flight from Esrange this summer,” the SSC said in a statement on Wednesday.

SSC has had dialogues this spring with both leading experts on geo-engineering and with other stakeholders, as well as with the SCoPEx Advisory Board. As a result of these dialogues and in agreement with Harvard, SSC has decided not to conduct the technical test flight planned for this summer.

ALSO ON RT.COM
Bill Gates’ Mr Burns-style attempt to dim the sun might not cool the planet, but it might well sell a few more copies of his book
Planned for the Arctic town of Kiruna, the June flight would have merely tested the balloon’s systems to pave the way for the study, but local activists have vocally opposed the initiative. In a joint letter penned last month, the Saami Council – which advocates for Sweden’s indigenous Saami people – and three environmental groups warned that the SCoPEx experiment could have “catastrophic consequences.”

While SCoPEx’s website states the experiment would pose “no significant hazard to people or the environment” and would release only a small amount of particles into the air, the Saami Council has opposed solar geoengineering in concept, saying it “essentially attempts to mimic volcanic eruptions by continuously spewing the sky with sun-dimming particles.” The activist groups also argued SCoPEx could distract from the goal of reducing carbon emissions and have “irreversible sociopolitical effects that could compromise the world’s necessary efforts to achieve zero-carbon societies.”

The experiment has received backing from Harvard’s Solar Geoengineering Research Program, whose website names billionaire climate crusader Bill Gates among its private donors, though it does not specify his contribution. Previously, a lead researcher working on SCoPEx, David Keith of Harvard, separately received at least $4.6 million from Gates for his Fund for Innovative Climate and Energy Research (FICER), according to the Guardian. Founded in 2007, FICER also funds research into solar geoengineering.

ALSO ON RT.COM
Scientists have new plan to fight global warming: Dimming the sun
Asked at a 2010 TED talk about what “emergency measures” mankind could implement to fight climate change should all else fail, Gates suggested solar geoengineering could be an “insurance policy.”

“There is a line of research on what's called geoengineering, which are various techniques that would delay the heating to buy up 20 or 30 years to get our act together. Now that's just an insurance policy, you hope that you don't need to do that,” he said, adding that the idea might be “kept in the back pocket.”

Keith, a professor of applied physics at the Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, told Reuters the SSC’s decision to scrap the experiment was “a setback,” but noted that the project could move to the US if the troubles continue in Europe. Until then, the researchers say they will continue to lobby for SCoPEx in Sweden, hoping to generate public interest and support.

The experiment could find traction in the States, as a report published last week by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine called on the government to devote between $100 and $200 million to solar geoengineering projects, including technologies to dim out the sun, over the next five years

8
Environment / Re: The Environment Board
« on: March 31, 2021, 01:25:45 PM »
If we change now, we can save the world.
Pigs might fly too.
Immediate “transformative action”. That will be my new catch phrase.

The pooch is well and truely screwed and we still have morons arguing that its all a big conspiracy theory..

JOW


Link:
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/barrier-reef-doomed-as-up-to-99-percent-of-coral-at-risk-report-finds-20210331-p57fng.html

Text:
Barrier Reef doomed as up to 99% of coral at risk, report finds
By Nick O'Malley and Mike Foley
April 1, 2021 — 5.00am

View all comments

The Great Barrier Reef is all but doomed, with between 70 and 99 per cent of corals set for destruction unless immediate “transformative action” is taken to reverse global warming, according to a new report.

The Australian Academy of Science says the more ambitious target of the Paris Climate Agreement of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees has now slipped out of reach and is “virtually impossible”.
Coral bleaching near Lizard Island on the Great Barrier Reef during 2016.

Coral bleaching near Lizard Island on the Great Barrier Reef during 2016.Credit:EarthJustice, EJA

“Limiting the temperature rise to the lower Paris Agreement target is exceedingly difficult, and with only three or four more years of emissions at current levels remaining, the target has become virtually impossible to achieve,” says The Risks to Australia of a 3C Warmer World.

If 1.5 degrees of warming was sustained, the Great Barrier Reef would cease to exist as we know it, says one of the authors, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, a biologist and climate scientist specialising in coral reefs.
Related Article
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What will happen to our cities (and beaches) at 3 degrees of warming?

At 1.5 degrees of warming, the reef would shrink by 70 to 90 per cent. At 2 degrees, just 1 per cent of the reef would survive.

If warming was stabilised, surviving corals suited to warmer temperatures may eventually return to cover the reef. Should it continue unabated, corals would vanish entirely to be replaced by other organisms such as seaweeds and bacteria, said Professor Hoegh-Guldberg.

“It’s questionable that this would produce the $5 billion in income the reef now produces in tourism,” he said.

Another of the authors, Distinguished Professor Lesley Hughes of Macquarie University, said at current rates of emissions the world is likely to burn through its 1.5 degree “carbon budget” by 2025.

According to the report, the earth has already warmed by 1.1 degrees since the beginning of the industrial era.

However, warming does not impact on the world uniformly and, according to Professor Hughes, Australia is already experiencing 1.4 degrees warming.

“The observations that we are seeing of things like unprecedented bushfires and regular frequent bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef are consistent with the predictions that have been made previously about a 1.5-degree world,” she said.

“This is already a difficult world and really the main point of the academy report was to show that if you think this is difficult, then imagine double or triple the warming that we’ve had.”
Coral 'IVF' at Great Barrier Reef continues

Coral 'IVF' at Great Barrier Reef continues

Love on Phillip Island: Bumper breeding season for penguins

Coral 'IVF' at Great Barrier Reef continues

1:34
Coral 'IVF' at Great Barrier Reef continues

In a world-first, researchers have successfully pioneered small-scale coral restoration using a technique dubbed Coral IVF.

In this scenario Black Summer fires would likely be an annual event and one in a 100-year floods would happen more commonly.

Professor Hoegh-Guldberg said it would be “disastrous” for politicians and policymakers to consider the report an excuse for giving up on reducing emissions.

Rather, he said it was further evidence that governments needed to shift from “gradualism to transformative action”. This meant committing not only to net zero targets by 2050, but substantial annual cuts guided by a significant reductions target for 2030.

Professor Frank Jotzo, another contributor to the paper and director of the Australian National University’s Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, said he agreed 1.5 degrees was likely out of reach, but serious and immediate action could still see the world stabilise at between 1.5 and 2 degrees, which would make a huge difference to the quality of life on earth.

According to Professor Jotzo the unprecedented growth of wind and solar power over the past few years showed not only that the world has the technology to replace fossils with clean energy, but the energy produced will be cheaper than for traditional fossil sources such as oil and gas.

As a result we can afford to spend on storage technologies such as batteries and pumped hydro, he said.

At the Paris Climate Conference in 2016 Australia signed up to the agreement to keep global warming below 2 degrees and as close to 1.5 degrees as possible. At the time Australia committed to reduce its emissions by 26-28 per cent based on 2005 levels by 2030. The agreement included a so-called ratchet mechanism designed to encourage nations to raise their targets.

Over the past year the number of countries with targets of net zero by mid-century has leapt from about 25 per cent to 75 per cent.

Now, pressure is mounting on countries to make 2030 targets more ambitious. Professor Jotzo said he believes that the US, which is hosting a climate summit of 40 world leaders this month, will probably double its 2030 target by around 50 per cent, increasing pressure on Australia to significantly raise its target.
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A spokesman for Energy and Emissions Reductions Minister Angus Taylor said global warming was “a global problem requiring a global solution”.

“The only pathway for all countries to get to net zero is by getting low emissions technologies to commercial parity with existing alternatives,” the spokesman said.

“When developing countries are no longer forced to choose between growth and decarbonisation, then global emissions will fall.

“Australia has strong targets, an enviable track record, and a responsible plan to get the cost of low emissions technologies down.”

9
Environment / Re: Crazy Weather
« on: March 21, 2021, 05:13:08 PM »
Expecting worse today...
Last year East coast was on fire. This years its under water!

JOW

Link
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/nsw/2021/03/22/nsw-floods-penrith/

Text:
NSW calls for defence force help amid worsening flood crisis

Flood damage in Penrith on Monday, after the Nepean River burst its banks and peaked at 10 metres on Sunday night. Photo: Getty
The New Daily
The New Daily
@TheNewDailyAU

Thousands of people across NSW were grappling with the flood crisis on Monday morning as evacuation warnings remained for large swathes of Sydney and the waters continued to rise in regional areas.

The NSW State Emergency Service was evacuating 2000 people on Monday morning, amid fears up to 50,000 might have to be evacuated if the crisis continued to escalate.

There were evacuation orders in western Sydney and for the foot of the Blue Mountains, affecting suburbs around Penrith and downstream to North Richmond as the Nepean and Hawkesbury Rivers peaked.

Affected areas included western parts of Penrith, Jamisontown, Mulgoa, North Richmond, Hawkesbury Valley around Agnes Banks, Freemans Reach, Cornwallis and Pitt Town North.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison called it a “testing time for our country”.

“It’s a matter of pulling through together once again,” he told 2GB radio on Monday.

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Australia's east sees worst floods in 50 years
Heavy rains along Australia's east coast over the weekend have brought the worst flooding in half a century in some areas, authorities said on Sunday, forcing thousands to evacuate and damaging hundreds of houses. Bryan Wood reports.
Reuters
Mr Morrison said defence helicopters and other resources were on standby, and promised federal resources would “move very quickly” to assist further.

Emergency Services Minister David Elliott said the NSW government expected to be able to confirm ADF support later on Monday.

“That will include logistics, obviously, assistance with making sure we make safe our communities,” he told Nine.

Hundreds of homes have been damaged, including one filmed floating down the Manning River in Taree. Mr Elliott said it was only a matter of time until lives were lost too.

Hundreds of flood rescues have been conducted by the SES since the weather began last week, and each one brought the state closer to an “inevitable fatality” he said on Sunday.

Mr Elliott said the most critical area on Monday was the mid-north coast, where communities were facing the worst flooding conditions since 1929.


Port Macquarie restaurateur Nathan Tomkins said the past few days had been a nightmare roller-coaster.

After record flooding at the Hastings River at the weekend, Mr Tomkins’ restaurant was inundated with neck-high water. He said the venture he had spent 24 years building was in ruins.

“The water just went right through and just destroyed everything. There is nothing left,” he told ABC TV on Monday.

“This is just like a nightmare, it really is. I’ve got so many friends and family members that are just hurting at the moment from all this, who have lost their homes, lost their cars, lost their businesses.”

Much of the mid-north coast is bracing for more flooding on Monday.

“I’m feeling like I’m on a roller-coaster. I woke up this morning and I just pinch myself to go, ‘OK, this is not real’. But it’s real,” Mr Tomkins said.

Monday is expected to bring more rain as a deepening trough feeds more moisture across central Australia towards the east.

Flash flooding remained a serious risk for the northern rivers and mid-north coast on Monday and Tuesday, the weather bureau said.

There are similar risks for the Hunter and Central Tablelands districts, particularly as catchments are already saturated.

Since the heavy rain began, 450 gigalitres of water a day have been released from the Warragamba Dam – comparable to the contents of Sydney Harbour, which is around 500 gigalitres.

The weather bureau said flooding in parts of the Hawkesbury-Nepean River system through Sydney’s west had reached levels not seen since 1961.

Sydney is forecast to get another 40-70 millimetres of rain on Monday, while parts of the NSW east coast will get more than 100 millimetres in the next four days.


More than 200 millimetres of rain has fallen in some parts of northern NSW. The heaviest falls have been around Kempsey and Coffs Harbour on the mid-north coast.

A flood evacuation order has been issued for the Kempsey CBD and authorities are warning the town’s levee could be inundated after 177 millimetres of rain since 9am Sunday.

Across NSW, more than 130 public, independent and Catholic schools were closed on Monday, and SES Commissioner Carlene York said people should seriously consider working from home.

“Your office or area of work may be open but you may not be able to safely get to that and we do not want people on the roads,” she said.

Disaster recovery assistance has been extended to a further 18 local government areas, including Blacktown, Blue Mountains, Hornsby, Northern Beaches and Penrith.

The assistance is being provided through the jointly funded Commonwealth-State Disaster Recovery Funding Arrangements.

Senior BOM forecaster Adam Morgan said conditions should begin to ease from Wednesday as the trough moved south.

“The south coast will probably see the heaviest rain on Tuesday, and then on Wednesday, we will see a few lingering showers along the coast, but nothing much like what we have seen over the past few days.”


Queensland on flood alert
Further north, Queensland also faces dangerous weather, with storms forecast from the Sunshine Coast down to the NSW border on Monday.

Overnight on Sunday, emergency workers responded to 300 calls for assistance mostly related to water inundation and falling trees.

“This weather event will hang around for the next three days,” QFES coordinator Brian Cox told Nine on Monday.

“The ground is already saturated so the risk of flooding is quite high.”

The Sunshine Coast is forecast to get more than 150 millimetres of rain in the next two days on top of the very intense storm activity over the weekend in the state’s east.

“It might not be as intense as our NSW colleagues are feeling at the moment but nonetheless quite dangerous,” Mr Cox said.

-with agencies

10
Environment / Re: Crazy Weather
« on: March 20, 2021, 07:29:36 PM »
Sydney starting to cop it pretty bad with heavy rains and flooding.
See live updayes link below.

JOW

Link:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-21/sydney-weather-live-bom-evacuation-warnings-flooding/100019438

Some Text:
Sydney weather live: Flood warning for Penrith as Warragamba Dam overflows
Posted 6hhours ago, updated 3mminutes ago
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The State Emergency Service says the severity of the disaster in NSW, where multiple flood evacuation orders are in place, means they will be overwhelmed with clean-up work until next month.

Follow today's events as they unfold.


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Live updates
By Michael Doyle


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Evacuation orders, major flooding along Hawkesbury

This is the situation right now:

Disaster recovery assistance is now available in Armidale, Bellingen, the Central Coast, Cessnock City, Clarence Valley, Coffs Harbour City, Dungog, Kempsey, Lake Macquarie, Maitland City, Mid-Coast, Nambucca Valley, Newcastle City, Port Macquarie-Hastings, Port Stephens, and Tenterfield
Residents in Picton have been told to prepare to evacuate
Evacuation orders remain in place for Agnes Banks, Freemans Reach, Pitt Town North, Pitt Town Bottoms, Cornwallis, North Richmond, Gronos Point
Major flooding is occurring along the Hawkesbury River. Flooding is likely to be similar to the February 2020 event.
Major flooding is also possible at Windsor, Sackville and Lower Portland
Moderate flooding is possible along the Nepean River at Menangle, Wallacia and Penrith
Moderate flooding continues along the Colo River, with further rises to the major flood level possible
The Manning River at Wingham has fallen below the major flood level, with moderate flooding continuing
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5mminutes ago
By Paige Cockburn


'A fatality is getting more likely'
Emergency Services Minister David Elliott said people are continuing to ignore pleas not to enter floodwater and putting SES volunteers at risk.

"Statistically, we are moving closer and closer to the inevitable fatality," he said.

"I am horrified to think that there are unnecessary flood rescues going on.

"The unnecessary risks that are being taken by these motorists is beginning to wear thin on the authorities, it is an offence."

Overnight there were 74 flood rescues.

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11mminutes ago
By Paige Cockburn


'One in a 100 year event'
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian says the Mid-North Coast is experiencing a "one in 100 year event" and the situation there is being watched very closely.

The Hawkesbury-Nepean valley community is seeing a one in a 50 year event, she says.

"Potentially another 4,000 people may be asked to evacuate in and around that Hawkesbury region today," Ms Berejiklian says.

She has also thanked South Australia, Victoria and Queensland for providing flood rescue assistance.

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16mminutes ago
By Paige Cockburn


Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume.
WATCH
Duration: 34 seconds34s
Play Video. Duration: 34 seconds
The Warragamba Dam spilling over this afternoon.
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21mminutes ago
By Paige Cockburn


hows the warragamba dam looking today,and will it hold up.

-the dam
Hi there,

Warragamba, which stores around 80 per cent of Sydney's water, is still spilling over today after hitting capacity yesterday afternoon.

We just received some vision of the dam today actually so I'll post that separately now.

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35mminutes ago
By Paige Cockburn


'A dynamic weather situation'

Dean Storey, Assistant Commissioner of the NSW State Emergency Service.
Even if it's not raining at your place right now, plan accordingly, Dean Storey from the SES said.

"Being prepared is chiefly important at this point in time. Particularly if you live in a flood prone or low-lying area, there is no harm in preparing.

"Prepare some items that you will need to take with you, communication devices or key paperwork, have an identified location that you would go to, understand the route you will take to get there and if things escalate proactively move to a safer location, even prior to any evacuation warnings being issued.

"This is a dynamic weather situation."

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43mminutes ago
By Paige Cockburn


When are the river peaks expected in Western Sydney?

The BOM's Justin Robertson
BOM flood operations manager Justin Robertson said the Nepean River is rising rapidly now at Penrith and is expected to peak later today.

At downstream locations like North Richmond, river levels will continue to rise but aren't expected to peak overnight.

Around Windsor, the peak will most likely occur late Monday and into Tuesday morning.

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49mminutes ago
By Paige Cockburn


'Do not delay, leave immediately'
More from NSW SES Assistant Commissioner Dean Storey:

"If where you are is subject to an evacuation warning, that means you need to prepare yourselves, your families, your pets and animals right now for a potential evacuation. You may choose to self evacuate, that would not be a bad decision if you have that option available to you."

"If where you are residing is subject to an evacuation order you must leave immediately. Do not delay, leave immediately."

Share post
53mminutes ago
By Paige Cockburn


The Assistant Commissioner of NSW SES is now speaking....
"We are experiencing a serious, potentially life weather event at this time, and it will continue to affect a large part of the state for the coming days," Dean Storey said.

"The key message of the SES at this time is that all communities need to be aware of their risk, and a plan and prepare accordingly."

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1hhour ago
By Paige Cockburn


Penrith warning
The BOM says Penrith is set to suffer one of the biggest floods “we are likely to see for a very long time”.

"We are very concerned about the flooding in the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley," BOM flood operations manager Justin Robertson said.

"At Penrith we are expecting river levels to be near the 1961 flood. To give you some context around, that is bigger than the February 2020 flood, bigger than the 1988 flood, bigger than the 1990 flood, bigger than the 1964 flood."

"That floodwater at Penrith is then expected to move downstream and impact communities like North Richmond and Windsor."

The BoM has urged residents to monitor announcements about potential evacuations.

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1hhour ago
By Paige Cockburn


Inland areas and South Coast on alert
A rain band coming from the west is also set to bring significant falls to the north west slopes and plains of NSW.

"We could see totals up to four times the March monthly average falling in just two days,"  Agata Imielska said.

"For people in those areas .... be really aware and alert that flood risk is coming your way."

On Tuesday, the South Coast will be hit by a deluge due to a low pressure system combining with the coastal moisture.

Share post
1hhour ago
By Paige Cockburn


BOM update

The focus is definitely on the Mid-North Coast area today and tomorrow.

Manager of BOM NSW and ACT Agata Imielska said:

"For the communities out there, you have already experienced some really dangerous conditions and they are going to be treacherous yet again so keep a close eye on warnings."

Share post
1hhour ago
By Paige Cockburn


Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume.
WATCH
Duration: 1 minute 53 seconds1m 53s
Play Video. Duration: 1 minute 53 seconds
Our reporter Alison Xiao is out in the thick of it and has provided this update from the Hawkesbury River at Windsor.
Share post
1hhour ago
By Paige Cockburn


Don't think the Parramatta ferry will be running for a while....

11
Knarfs Knewz / Re: Knarf's Knewz Channel
« on: March 20, 2021, 01:08:07 PM »
Fifteen sustainable, zero-net-energy homes will be built in the tony city of Rancho Mirage.



From steaks to dayboats, it appears you can 3-D print pretty much anything these days. Perhaps even a full-scale neighborhood.

Palari Group recently announced plans to build what it claims will be the world’s first community of 3-D-printed, zero-net-energy homes. The California-based development firm has already secured a site in the Coachella Valley for the $15 million project and plans to break ground this September.

The development will be located on a 5-acre plot of land in the tony city of Rancho Mirage. It will comprise 15 eco-friendly abodes centered around next-gen technology and sustainability. Palari has partnered with Mighty Buildings to create the elegant single-story homes that each span 1,450 square feet.

Each structure will be built using Mighty Buildings’s Mighty Kit system. The company will 3-D print modular panels made of a stone composite material at its facility in Oakland, which will then assembled at the building site. Think of it as a traditional kit home with the added efficiency of 3-D printing. Palari claims this process will eliminate 99 percent of construction waste and thus minimize environmental impact.

“3-D printing allows us to build faster, stronger and more efficiently, making it integral to our platform of streamlining home-building process centered on sustainability of construction, materials and operations,” Basil Starr, founder and CEO of Palari, said in a statement.


Each residence will feature mid-century modern architecture. 

While the pioneering construction methods are undeniably impressive, so too is the quality of the exterior and interior design. Situated on a sprawling 10,000-square-foot lot, each residence will feature mid-century modern architecture and a textured stone façade to complement the natural surroundings.

The layout comprises a 1,450-square-foot primary residence that features three bedrooms and two bathrooms. Buyers will also be able to add an optional 700-square-foot secondary residence that offers an additional two bedrooms and one bath. Naturally, any interior furnishings that can’t be 3-D printed will be sustainably sourced.

The backyard, meanwhile, will come complete with a swimming pool and deck for requisite sundowners. You can also opt for luxurious extras such as a cabana, hot tub, firepit and outdoor shower.

As mentioned, these are zero-net-energy homes which means that they emit no emissions (or offset any that they do). All energy needs will be supplied by solar power and homeowners will have the option to install the Tesla Powerwall or other EV chargers to juice up their electric four-wheelers.

To top it off, each abode will feature a cutting-edge intelligence system, Darwin by Delos, that promises to enhance health and wellbeing by improving air quality, filtering water and lighting that adjusts to your circadian rhythm.

Palari is planning to build more communities of sustainable smart homes in various locations across California, including the Napa Valley, Central Coast and the San Fernando Valley. During the presale stage, prices start at $595,000 for a base three-bedder home and stretch up to $950,000 for the two-home configuration with upgrades.

https://robbreport.com/shelter/home-design/worlds-first-3-d-printed-neighborhood-1234602559/

What a complete waste of resources.
$600K ti $950K. Wonder what the carbon footprint to build is?
What was cleared to make way for this estate?
What material is it made from, oil based polimers?
Bit of a long stretch to believe these are environmentally friendly when you look at materials footprint....
Bet there is no public transport to the area. Will rely on cars to get around.
Where is the water to fill 15 pools come from?

It sounds like a way for rich people to launder their environmental guilt. "Look I have a carbon neutral home"... At the same time jetting around and swimming in pools in drought stricken California. Sorry, sounds like greenwashed bullshit to me.

Want to help the environment?
Consume less.
Reduce, reuse, recycle, in that order!
And plant more trees morons.

JOW

12
Economics / Re: Hyperinflation or Deflation?
« on: March 19, 2021, 04:33:16 PM »
I like this guy too.

JOW

Link:
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/03/19/i-truly-believe-that-we-the-rich-will-emerge-from-this-crisis-stronger-and-better-as-we-the-rich-have-done-so-often-before-jerome-powell-in-wsj-op-ed/

Text:
Powell in WSJ Op-ed: “I Truly Believe that We [the Rich] Will Emerge from this Crisis Stronger and Better, as We [the Rich] Have Done so Often Before”
by Wolf Richter • Mar 19, 2021 • 41 Comments
Gimme a break, will ya? Wherein I rant, supported by the Fed’s own data.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
In an op-ed today in the Wall Street Journal, Fed Chair Jerome Powell rationalized and defended the Fed’s ultra-radical, previously unthinkably monstrous, and super-fast bailout of asset holders starting a year ago, when within three months the Fed created $3 trillion and purchased assets with them, and created the biggest media hoopla about those purchases and many more trillions in future purchases, in order to inflate asset prices further, and make asset holders immensely rich.

It was a huge success. Asset prices nearly across the board surged way past the levels before the crisis, and those holding them got a lot richer, very fast.

And Powell therefore concluded his op-ed with this line: “I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before.”

The “we” being the asset holders, the richest asset holders at the very top. The “we” excludes the bottom 50% of Americans, according to the Fed’s own data, which we’ll get to in a moment.


The reports and data are coming out of the woodwork from all directions. Oxfam said that the combined wealth of the world’s top 10 billionaires has skyrocketed by $540 billion since the crisis began. GOBankingRates came up with a list of the biggest gainers in net worth between March 18, 2020, and October 7. The Americans on this list:

Jeff Bezos (+$72.6 billion);
Elon Musk (+$63.3 billion);
Mark Zuckerberg (+$42.1 billion);
MacKenzie Scott (+$23.6 billion);
Steve Ballmer (+$18.5 billion);
Larry Ellison (+$19.9 billion);
Nike founder Phil Knight & Family (+$19.8 billion);
Bill Gates ($17.8 billion); Michael Dell (+$15.6 billion)
The Fed’s own data on the Fed’s handiwork: ballooning wealth disparity.
The Federal Reserve collects data on its handiwork of creating the greatest wealth disparity of all times, and Powell surely has looked at these reports put together by the outfit he runs. According to which the total wealth (assets minus debt) spreads out this way:



Let’s dive into the Fed’s handiwork a little more deeply, which gets worse the deeper we dive:

The top 10% in Q4 2020 were $8.01 trillion richer than before the crisis; half of those gains ($4 trillion) were pocketed by the top 1%.
The bottom 50% gained only $471 billion in wealth, spread across half of the US population.
The wealth disparity between the top 10% and the bottom 50% ballooned by $7.5 trillion during the crisis.
Even worse: The wealth disparity per capita.
If the US population is 330 million, then 1% = 3.3 million people; and 50% = 165 million people. And so, per capita, at those levels (wealth = assets minus debt):

Wealth of the 1% = $11,700,814 per person (up by $1.22 million from Q4 2019)
Wealth of the bottom 50% = $15,065 per person (up by $2,851 from Q4 2019)
And so from Q4 2019 to Q4 2020, the wealth disparity between the 1% and the bottom 50% has ballooned by $1.1 million per person.

Even worse: Most of the “wealth” of the bottom 50% is in cars and other stuff, not actual assets.
The Fed’s measure of “wealth” includes the value of cars, dishwashers, furniture, smartphones, and other consumer durable goods that people have. But durable goods are not assets that earn a return or grow in value. They’re consumption items, and their value shrinks over time to zero or salvage value.

Per capita at the bottom 50%, the value of durable goods averages $8,920 per person, or nearly 60% of their total wealth. That portion of their wealth cannot earn a return or grow in value.

Their wealth related to actual assets that can earn a return is just $6,140 per person of the bottom 50%. These crumbs may be inadvertently increased by the Fed’s asset bubble. So if asset prices surge by 20% across the board, the bottom 50% would pocket just $1,228, while someone worth $2 billion would pocket $400 million.

This potential income doesn’t even include the powerful impact of leverage, to which the top 10% have much greater and cheaper access than the bottom 50%.

In other words, according to the Fed’s own data, the bottom 50% have nearly no income-producing assets, and cannot gain any measurable wealth from the Fed’s shenanigans.

The year’s gain in durable goods that the bottom 50% own is likely attributable to the factors we have observed for months: Stimulus payments, extra unemployment payments, and the shift in spending from services (flights, hotels, cruises, restaurants, sports events, movie theaters, haircuts, etc.) to durable goods that triggered the record spike in spending on durable goods.

The bottom 50% spent this money on durable goods, and now the Fed counts this stuff as an increase in “wealth.” And this money came from the government and from a shift in spending, and not from the Fed.

Even worse: ownership of stocks and equity funds.
The top 10% own $29.6 trillion in stocks and equity funds, or 88.5% of the total, or $10 million per person.
The bottom 90% own 3.8 trillion, or 11.5% of the total, or $11,600 per person
The bottom 50% don’t own hardly any stocks, just $190 billion, or $1,150 per person.
So when the Fed decided to create the largest asset bubble the world has ever seen, it knew who owned those assets, and who would benefit. The Fed itself is generating the reports on who owns these assets and who therefore benefits from policies that inflate these assets.

Mr. Powell, do you see that we see that you see that we know that inflating asset bubbles is designed from get-go to inflate the wealth of the very rich, and the remainder of the Americans get to eat dust?

Even worse: for the Bottom 50%, life gets more expensive.
There are the negative consequences of the Fed’s asset bubble policies for the bottom 50%: Life gets more expensive. Housing costs surge, and other prices surge too, and buying those durable goods gets more expensive, and thereby the Fed, with its inflation goals, is cutting the purchasing power of labor of the bottom 50%.

Those are the consequences of the Fed’s policies. And the Fed is assiduously tracking and touting those consequences.

Even worse: Congress.
Of course, Congress could crack down on the Fed. But the members of Congress are either already in the top 10% or are trying to get there asap when they join Congress, and so they too benefit from the Fed’s policies, and will therefore never crack down on the Fed, regardless of what their stated policies may be.

End of rant.

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13
Environment / Re: The Environment Board
« on: March 19, 2021, 03:44:29 PM »
Ah, the news just keeps getting better!

JOW

Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

Text:
THURSDAY, MARCH 18, 2021
Overshoot or Omnicide?
Questions and Anwers with Sam Carana


Above image shows a non-linear trend based on 1880-2020 NASA Land+Ocean data that are adjusted 0.78°C to reflect a pre-industrial base, to more fully reflect strong polar warming, and to reflect surface air temperatures over oceans.

The trend highlights that the 1.5°C threshold was crossed in 2012 (inset), while the 2°C threshold looks set to be crossed next year and a 2°C rise could be reached at the end of  2026.

Overshoot?

The blue trend in the image at the top shows the temperature rise crossing 1.5°C in 2012. Could this be a temporary overshoot? Could temperatures come down in future, to such extent that this will bring the average temperature rise back to below 1.5°C?

An associated question is how much temperatures will rise when averaged over a 30-year period that is centered around the start of 2012? In other words, what is the average temperature rise from 1997 to end 2026?

The answer is that, for the 1997-2026 average to be below 1.5°C, temperatures would have to fall over the next few years. Even if the temperature for 2021 fell to a level as low as it was in 2018 and remained at that same lower level until end 2026, the 1997-2026 average would still be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial.
Will temperatures rise over the next few years? Why? By how much?

Even if al emissions of greenhouse gases by people could magically end from one moment to another, temperatures would still continue to rise over the next few years. Reasons for this rise are listed below, and it is not an exhaustive list. By implication, there is no carbon budget left. Pretending that there was a carbon budget left, to be divided among polluters and to be consumed over the next few years, that suggestion is irresponsible.

• The warming impact of carbon dioxide reaches its peak a decade after emission, while methane's impact over ten years is huge, so the warming impact of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere is likely to prevent temperatures from falling and could instead keep raising temperatures for some time to come.

• Temperatures are currently suppressed. We're in a La Niña period, as illustrated by the image below.


• We're also at a low point in the sunspot cycle. As the image on the right shows, the number of sunspots can be expected to rise as we head toward 2026, and temperatures can be expected to rise accordingly.

• Add to this the impact of a recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming event. We are currently experiencing the combined impact of three short-term variables that are suppressing the temperature rise, i.e. a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event, a La Niña event and a low in sunspots.

Over the next few years, in the absence of Sudden Atmopsheric Warming events, a huge amount of heat could remain present at surface level. As the temperature impact of other short-term variables reverses, i.e. as the sunspot cycle moves toward a peak and a El Niño develops, this could push up temperatures substantially. The world could be set up for a perfect storm by 2026, since sunspots are expected to reach a peak by then and since it takes a few years to move from a La Niña low to the peak of an El Niño period.

• Furthermore, temperatures are currently also suppressed by sulfate cooling. This impact is falling away as we progress with the necessary transition away from fossil fuel and biofuel, toward the use of more wind turbines and solar panels instead. Aerosols typically fall out of the atmosphere within a few weeks, so as the transition progresses, this will cause temperatures to rise over the next few years.


• Also holding back the temperature rise at the moment is the buffer effect of thick sea ice in the Arctic that consumes heat as it melts. As Arctic sea ice thickness declines, more heat will instead warm up the Arctic, resulting in albedo changes, changes to the Jet Stream and possibly trigger huge releases of methane from the seafloor. The rise in ocean temperature on the Northern Hemisphere looks very threatening in this regard (see image on the right) and many of these developments are discussed at the extinction page. There are numerous feedbacks that look set to start kicking in with growing ferocity as temperatures keep rising, such as releases of greenhouse gases resulting from permafrost thawing and the decline of the snow and ice cover. Some 30 feedbacks affecting the Arctic are discussed at the feedbacks page.

• The concusion of study after study is that the situation is worse than expected and will get even worse as warming coninues. Some examples: a recent study found that the Amazon rainforest is no longer a sink, but has become a source, contributing to warming the planet instead; another study found that soil bacteria release carbon dioxide previously thought to remain trapped by iron; and yet another study found that kelp off the Californian coast has collapsed.
Where do we go from here?


[ image from earlier post ]

The same blue trend that's in the image at the top also shows up in the image on the right, from an earlier post, together with a purple trend and a red trend that picture even worse scenarios than the blue trend.   

The purple trend is based on 15 recent years (2006-2020), so it can cover a 30-year period (2006-2035) that is centered around end December 2020. As the image shows, the purple trend points at a rise of 10°C by 2026, leaving little or no scope for the current acceleration to slow, let alone for the anomaly to return to below 2°C.

The red trend is based on a dozen recent years (2009-2020) and shows that the 2°C threshold could already have been crossed in 2020, while pointing at a rise of 18°C by 2025.

In conclusion, temperatures could rise by more than 3°C by the end of 2026, as indicated by the blue trend in the image at the top. At that point, humans will likely go extinct, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. On the other hand, the right thing to do is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.


Links

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• NOAA Global Climate Report - February 2021 - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202102/supplemental/page-4

• NOAA Northern Hemisphere Ocean Temperature Anomaly
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/nhem/ocean/12/12/1880-2021

• NOAA Sunspots - solar cycle progression
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

• 2020: Hottest Year On Record
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/01/2020-hottest-year-on-record.html

• What Carbon Budget?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/01/what-carbon-budget.html

• Most Important Message Ever
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/07/most-important-message-ever.html

• High Temperatures October 2020
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/10/high-temperatures-october-2020.html

• Temperature keep rising
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/12/temperatures-keep-rising.html

• More Extreme Weather
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/02/more-extreme-weather.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Sudden Stratospheric Warming
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sudden-stratospheric-warming.html

• Iron mineral dissolution releases iron and associated organic carbon during permafrost thaw - by Monique Patzner et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20102-6

• Large-scale shift in the structure of a kelp forest ecosystem co-occurs with an epizootic and marine heatwave - by Meredith McPherson et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-021-01827-6

• Global maps of twenty-first century forest carbon fluxes - by Nancy Harris et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00976-6

• Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission by Katharine Ricke et al.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002

• Confirm Methane's Importance
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/03/confirm-methanes-importance.html

• FAQs
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/faq.html



14
Environment / Re: Crazy Weather
« on: March 19, 2021, 03:36:44 PM »
Getting heavy rains further up East coast.
We expecting some lighter rains starting tomorrow for a week or so.

JOW

NSW rain LIVE updates: SES issues evacuation orders for Mid North Coast as state lashed by extreme weather
Link to live updates:
https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-rain-live-updates-ses-issues-evacuation-orders-for-mid-north-coast-as-state-lashed-by-extreme-weather-20210319-p57ce8.html


Some text:
 9.26am
SES activated for more than 100 flood rescues
The SES has responded to more than 100 flood rescues, as heavy rain and rising river levels led to evacuation orders being issued for parts of the Mid North Coast on Friday and Saturday.

Residents in low-lying areas of North Haven, Dunbogan, Laurieton, Port Macquarie, Lower Macleay, Kempsey CBD, Wauchope, Rawdon Island, Bulahdelah, Kings Point, Macksville, Central Wingham, Taree Estate, Dumaresq Island and Cundletown have been ordered to leave because the areas could become inundated by water.

15
Economics / My Orlov has his take on Hyperinflation
« on: March 19, 2021, 03:31:42 PM »
I always find the Russian to be a good read even when I dont agree 100% with his analysis.

JOW

Link
 http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2021/03/getting-hyperinflation-right.html#more

Text:
MONDAY, MARCH 15, 2021
Getting Hyperinflation Right

Profligate money printing by the US Federal Reserve and by other Western central banks has amounted to around $10 trillion over just the last year. The amount of currency in circulation has grown to $2 trillion, breaking a record set in 1945 and showing an almost 12% increase over 2019. The US federal budget deficit stands at just about $3.5 trillion, which is over 16% of GDP—the highest it's been since World War II. Meanwhile, the US federal debt has just topped $28 trillion. Over the past year the US has overspent its revenues by a staggering 194%.

Prices are going up everywhere even as the underlying economy remains in coronavirus-inspired doldrums, specifically because consumption has been repressed, with the coronavirus as an excuse, to delay the onset of hyperinflation. And then the Chairman of the Federal Reserve steps in and calms the troubled waters by publicly claiming that "There is no reason to be afraid of hyperinflation." This sounds a lot like denial, which is the first of the five stages of grief, after which come anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. Powell said "hyperinflation"; therefore, there shall be hyperinflation.

What happens to the value of money when a government prints lots of it—to spend or to simply hand out to people—is that the money becomes less valuable because there is more money per unit things to buy with it. The expectation that this trend will continue then triggers a continuous process of increasing prices, called inflation, while the resulting expectation that the rate of inflation will continue to increase triggers hyperinflation.

My view is that hyperinflation is hardly a problem at all and that, quite the opposite, it is a solution to a great many pressing problems. Here we will look at hyperinflation as nature's gentle way of solving the problems of a society that has forgotten how to live within its means. But nature needs help. Just as a radical weight loss program can go better given some input from an expert nutritionist, hyperinflation too has its best practices, which I am eager to impart.


There are a lot of historical examples of hyperinflation. The most ancient one occurred on the Arabian peninsula after Emperor Mansa Musa I of the Malian Empire made his pilgrimage to Mecca in 1324, in the course of which he handed out 71,000 pounds of freshly mined Malian gold. Since gold's value is based on its scarcity, this rendered it all but worthless. But that is a unique case; all of the recent examples of hyperinflation featured piles of suddenly worthless paper money in ever more extravagant denominations.

This is most inconvenient from many perspectives. The sheer mechanics of hyperinflation—of printing and issuing ever more notes, repeatedly exchanging older, increasingly worthless notes for newer ones, making payments using cartloads and wagonloads of cash—become increasingly burdensome. When it takes an entire suitcase of cash to pay for a pack of cigarettes or a bar of soap, soap and cigarettes themselves become a makeshift form of currency.

Hyperinflation is most unpopular with people who insist on storing their savings in the form of cash. In response, they turn to buying up and hoarding other things, causing shortages and further driving up prices. But all of these problems can now be solved because we have the technology to make hyperinflation safe, comfortable, convenient and fun for the whole family!

However, this requires a change in mindset and a different approach to money. To start with, we need to recognize that money is not a physical quantity. It is dimensionless because it can only be measured relative to other currencies. Unlike any physical quantity, it is measured with infinite precision; any physical measurement, be it in kilograms, cubic meters or kilowatt-hours, has to have error bars on it to be meaningful, while monetary quantities, no matter how large, are precise down to the last penny. It is circularly defined: money derives its value from things that can be purchased with it, and these things in turn derive their price from the value of money.

Although money can be given a physical representation in the form of coins or paper currency, its essential nature is ephemeral, nonphysical and intangible. In essence, money only exists as pure thought in the minds of people who are involved in its exchange. Its physical embodiments are just theatrical props. Its reality is conceptual, similar to that of the irrational number π, which can also be given a physical representation—as, say, a one-meter-diameter circle carved in stone that has a circumference of π meters—but that would be pointless. Just as π is ubiquitous in mathematics, money is ubiquitous in economics.

Once we jettison the very idea of giving money any sort of physical representation, things become much simpler. Treating money as mere information to be represented as numbers within computer systems opens up all sorts of wonderful possibilities. To eliminate the physical representation of money while retaining its concept as a universal medium of exchange, it is necessary to shift to an all-digital currency.

To a large extent this is already happening. Most people have a smartphone, and many people link their bank accounts to payment systems that allow them to wave their phone at payment terminals without even having to touch them. This contactless method of payment is becoming increasingly popular and common in this contagion-obsessed age as people realize that cash is a major source of germs, passing as it does through many unwashed hands.

Physical cash has already become a legacy technology. It can be phased out simply by neglecting to upgrade it with higher-denomination bills while hyperinflation rages. By the time it takes an entire bulging wallet full of $100 bills just to gain admission to a public toilet, most people will take the hint and voluntarily switch to waving their smartphones around to pay for things. The annoying suitcase full of cash that is the linchpin of many a crappy film will thankfully become a thing of the past. Rich vulgarians who might previously light their cigars with $100 bills would perhaps switch to using something truly scarce, like toilet paper.

With physical cash gone, there still remains the problem of hyperinflation creating ever-larger numbers: millions, billions, trillions, quadrillions, quintillions, sextillions, septillions, octillions and so on. Here, expressing monetary quantities in scientific notation, with a mantissa and an exponent, makes hyperinflation much easier to handle computationally. The US federal debt, which has just surpassed $28 trillion, can be more compactly and flexibly expressed as $28E+12 with the 12 indicating that 12 zeros are to be added after the number. If it goes up by a factor of 1000 to $28 quadrillion that would make it $28E+15. Quintillion? No problem, $28E+18.

There are estimated to be between 1E+78 and 1E+82 atoms in the known, observable universe, but since money is not physical this is not a constraint. The only constraint is the ability of computer systems to represent very large exponents. The solution is to have the exponent wrap around. Once the lowest-denomination virtual coin reaches, say, $1E+100, the exponent wraps around and the redenominated value becomes $1E+1. Whenever that happens, a little green checkmark symbol would appear for a time on everyone's smartphone screens, with a hint: "Your favorite digital currency has been redenominated for your comfort and convenience."

Much more frequent than the periodic adjustments to the hyperinflationary currency itself will be the necessary adjustments to the prices charged for every product imaginable. Depending on the rate of hyperinflation, all prices need to be adjusted upwards on a regular basis—perhaps once a week, once a day, an hour or even once a second. To take maximum advantage of Everyday Higher Prices, software would need to be written to make it possible to automatically place an entire raft of previously set up orders the moment a sum of money lands in an account, to be able to lock in the lowest possible prices.

The software should make it possible to prioritize purchases, placing feminine hygiene products and diapers, prescription medicines, toilet paper and other outright necessities near the top of the list and luxuries (soft drinks and booze, chips and cookies, clothing and footwear) near the bottom, to be purchased only if the deposited funds turn out to be sufficient. In turn, the government would be able to harvest order history data and use it to set cut-off points between necessities and luxuries and to determine how much money to issue each month, each week or each day, aiming to provide all of the necessities and a few of the luxuries in an effort to keep hyperinflation under control and the population alive. Charitable organizations could use the list of necessities to determine what to distribute as humanitarian aid, since many people—the innumerate especially—might be unable to comprehend and navigate the wonderful new world of hyperinflation.

Such a system should be able to meet the goal of maintaining very high levels of hyperinflation for a considerable period of time. We should expect economics conferences to be convened to determine the best way to regulate hyperinflation. Mathematical theories would be hatched to calculate the optimum rate of hyperinflation, as has been done with inflation. No doubt great effort will also be invested in finding the proper, principled way to systematically underestimate hyperinflation, just as is being done with inflation today, with the help of hedonic adjustments and similar tricks, to make sure that the value of payments indexed to hyperinflation (for instance, government pensions and long-term contracts such as rental and lease agreements) decreases over time.

Perhaps this could be done by introducing Voluntary Simplicity Adjustments: if almost nobody heats or air conditions their house any more or has hot and cold running water, then the exorbitant cost of such luxuries would be excluded from the basket of goods and services used to measure the rate of hyperinflation. Similar reasoning could be used to exclude the cost of cars, bicycles, skateboards and shoes. A hedonic adjustment could also be applied throughout, based on the fact that people would enjoy a greater feeling of moral superiority from the fact that they are no longer having children and generally emitting less carbon dioxide, thus helping save the planet from catastrophic climate change (although it is by no means certain).

People tend to see inflation as a negative and hyperinflation as a calamity of highest order. This prejudice needs to be overcome with the help of proper messaging supported by ad campaigns and mass reeducation efforts. People must become appreciative of the fact that nothing in this world is permanent and that everything we have ages and fades over time, from yoghurt in your refrigerator to money in your wallet. Just as freshly baked bread is better than day-old bread, freshly issued money is better than day-old money. This is natural and in harmony with the rest of the universe, which is rushing headlong in the direction of increasing entropy. Regular visual redesigns, presenting each major new issuance of money as an exciting new virtual world, would not only keep designers busy but could help make month-old money seem as unfashionable and unattractive as month-old half-eaten pizza.

Hyperinflation makes it possible for the perceived values, and prices, to always go up even in the midst of economic malaise, decay and collapse. They may not keep up with hyperinflation, losing value in real terms, and this may be a problem in certain cases, but the major danger in a perpetually shrinking, depressed economy is deflation, especially asset deflation. The US is already experiencing it in a major way with free-falling prices for vacant commercial real estate. As the tourist industry shuts down, numerous assets, from cruise ships to passenger aircraft to hotels and resorts, turn into stranded assets that quickly run down due to lack of maintenance and become worthless except as scrap metal. But hyperinflation makes it possible for even the most stranded of assets to at least seem to keep their value. A rising hyperinflation creates the appearance of raising all boats, even the sunken ones.

Many people judge the health of the economy based on how stock prices are doing. At present stock prices are performing a most admirable levitation act in spite of a rapidly shrinking real economy. For example, industrial production in Germany, the industrial powerhouse of the EU, has been in continuous decline for the past 27 months, shrinking by more than 8%. In other news, according to the EIA, world oil production over the past year fell by an all-time record of 8%. It is admirable how Germany is keeping its industrial production synchronized with dwindling global energy availability, but that is hardly a reason for stock prices to remain as high as they are, never mind continue to go up.

At present, central banks in the US and in Europe are on the job continuously injecting liquidity into the various stock markets to keep them looking pink and plump, but such blatant intervention tends to make the stock market look like a pyramid scheme, undermining confidence. Hyperinflation can help: once it arrives, stock prices will continue to look pink and plump no matter what else happens. Of course, they won't be able to keep up with hyperinflation, but at least they will continue to go up, not down, instilling confidence in the economy, making stockholders feel happier than they would otherwise, creating a wealth effect that will help slow economic collapse.

With the choice of proper messaging and mass reeducation, it should be possible to inure people to the idea that money is no more durable than the things they buy with it, most of which are not durable at all and are often quite shoddy or outright disposable. After they get used to this new reality, they won't mind it too much, provided the user interfaces of the online banking and electronic payment apps are slick enough to make the work of dealing with Everyday Higher Prices easy, convenient and fun.

Handled properly, hyperinflation can provide numerous other benefits. Gone will be negative terms such as federal budget deficit and federal debt. Normalized over the past 12 months, the US federal government took in $283.8 billion in revenues and spent $552 billion. That is, it overspent its revenues by 194%. Rounding up just a bit, it is safe to say that the US spends twice its revenues, borrowing as much as it earns. The cumulative result of this borrowing currently stands somewhere north of $28 trillion and—here comes the interesting part—the amount of that debt that needs to be rolled over over the next 12 months comes to $7.4 trillion and has grown by $2.7 trillion (that is, by more than a third) in just the past year. Debt that can never be repaid is not really debt at all and continuing to call it that is psychologically damaging. Hyperinflation will make it go away, easing everyone's mind.

There are people who will tell you that this can go on forever because interest rates are close to 0% and so more debt can be produced out of nothing and existing debt rolled over ad infinitum with no adverse effects whatsoever. There are also people who will tell you that, given such an astoundingly huge levels of fiscal/monetary bloat, some of it will eventually leak into the real estate markets (indeed, it already has!), into the commodities markets, from there into the consumer goods sector, and then it will be off to the races! Just a whiff of hyperinflation will be enough to panic the bond investors, making it impossible for the government to continue rolling over its debt while borrowing ever more. Overspending its revenues by a factor of two is by no means an endpoint: the actual endpoint is a deficit of 100%.

It is time to abandon the outdated model of financing US government operations through taxation, which in the midst of hyperinflation will become ineffectual, since by the time the money is collected, allocated and spent it will buy next to nothing. A much better approach is to repeal all taxes and to retire the very concept of public debt. The US Treasury (not the Federal Reserve, which would become superfluous) would by then be directly issuing digital money in the quantities required—be they trillions, quadrillions, quintillions, sextillions, septillions or octillions of dollars a month, a week, a day, an hour or a second.

And then will come a brave new world in which the government issues money, hands it out, it circulates for a bit before losing of its value, and then the government issues more money. Obviously, the government, no longer being good for much, would do well to let the tech giants—Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook and, last but not least, Twitter—take over the money-issuing function. New smartphone-based banking and payment systems will not only make it possible to take these changes in stride but will make hyperinflation fun for everyone.

In this brave new world, gone will be the terrible problem of usury, since nobody will be willing to lend any money at all, at any rate of interest, there being a great danger of total loss. Gone will be the vexatious problems of attempting to exercise fiscal restraint and of having to justify to taxpayers how their tax money is being misappropriated and mishandled. The benefits of hyperinflation are too many to mention here, but perhaps the most important one will be in allowing people, rich and poor alike, to make a gradual transition to life without any money at all. To paraphrase Klaus Schwab, you will be broke and you will be miserable, but at least you'll have fun getting there... playing with your smartphone while waiting for deliveries... until the internet goes down... or the lights go out and the battery runs down.

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