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1
Seasteading / Re: Seastead of the Day
« Last post by RE on Today at 12:28:14 PM »
I did some amateur Interior Cabin design for boats when I was fantasizing reading Cruising World and Sailing Magazines back in the 70s.  Indeed, I found it about impossible to wedge in a passageway to a center cockpit at unde 40" but that boat is 44', so it is doable.

Pain sucks for sure.  This morning was an hour straight, with no morphine.  Not pleasant.  It finally subsided, thank god.  I gotta get into the ER.

RE
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The Diner Pantry / 🍜 Doomstead Diner Lunch Special: 6/25/2018
« Last post by RE on Today at 12:13:17 PM »
Today for the Lunch Special we are having another variation of Hot & Sour Soup plus an Appetizer of Pot Stickers.  Our local Japanese-Chinese restaurant servs a great version of both and the Full Bowl of Hot & Sour Soup is mega huge as well.

RE

Hot & Sour Soup 🍜

Chicken-LemongrassPot Stickers
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Energy / What Ever Happened to ‘Peak Oil’ 🦖?
« Last post by agelbert on Today at 12:08:22 PM »
So with the world's consumption running at 33.6 billion barrels per year, you think it's good to have discovered 330 million barrels, with a hope to find 1 billion?  If that the best since 2010, then we are in real trouble.
Where would I find a fairly balanced guide to consumption, projected consumption, current production, and discovery that charts past present and future. It seems the peak oil stats run out around 2008-10 and the discoveries project into the future. Who brings both of those pictures together without an agenda? Forgive my wording let me know if my meaning is not clear.  It really seems that we cook ourselves AND run out of economically viable FF. I would like some numbers though to bring those two narratives together in my mind.

Palloy is, as usual, playing mathematical word games with the FACT that there CAN BE NO COLLAPSE, at least until the magical disappearance of oil after 2025. Don't hold your breath waiting for Palloy to ever use hard numbers to base his Confirmation Bias on. He USES Fossil Fuel Industry published numbers when it suits him and, when it does NOT, as the article I posted at the begining of this thread makes CLEAR, he claims the "Fossil Fuel Industry is making it up". How cleverly sophistic of him. 


Davod, here is an article that gives you an idea of how the real world has responded, for the past ten years, to the "Peak Oil" scaremongering.

As to reliable numbers, go to the initial article on this thread and researche ZME science web site. They do not DO flase propaganda or fake numbers. If you believe Palloy more than them, then you are being taken for a ride, PERIOD.

What Ever Happened to ‘Peak Oil’?

Media 'retreats' from doomsday theory as U.S. production spikesBY: Elizabeth Harrington

February 2, 2018 4:13 pm


"From the steps of the Supreme Court to the White House press room, from global trading exchanges to the snowy reaches of Alaska — over the last week, you could hear the creak of history as it began to pivot in a half-dozen locales," an editorial in the New York Times read.

"The Age of Oil is at an end. Maybe not this year. Maybe not for five years. But signs of the coming collapse are evident."

The article, with the stark headline, "Oil's End," ran in March 2008.

Ten years later, we're still waiting for that "coming collapse." ::)

In fact, this week we learned the U.S. topped 10 million barrels a day in oil production in November, a level not reached since 1970. We hit that mark four months ahead of schedule, largely on the back of the shale industry, "once dismissed" by global oil exporters.

For years we heard about "peak oil," the theory of hitting a maximum amount of oil production and waiting for it to run out, none louder than in the pages of the New York Times and the Washington Post.

Paul Krugman told us we were "running out of planet to exploit" in 2008, warning, "this time may be different."

By September 2010, the Times green blog was circulating a study projecting the world would hit peak oil that year, leading to a "dire global economic crisis" by 2025 as a "result of a peak and an irreversible decline in world oil supplies."

By November: "Peak oil is not just here — it's behind us already."

Quoting from the International Energy Agency, the Times blog reported that crude oil production "probably topped out for good in 2006, at about 70 million barrels a day."

Of course by 2016, the IEA reported world production of 96 million barrels of oil per day, or 35 billion barrels a year.

The Times peak oil scare was not limited to its editorial pages. In June 2010, the Times profiled environmentalist "survivalists" who were stocking up on seeds and supplies out of fear the world would run out of oil.

Raven Gray, the leader of Transition US, a group helping towns "brace for life after oil," said, "There's lot of apocalyptic people in environmental circles." You don't say?

The Washington Post was also a bit premature on its peak oil scare. "Wake Up, America. We're Driving Toward Disaster," an editorial read in May 2008. The editorial advocated changes to the "way we produce food, "conduct commerce and trade," the "way we travel," the "way we occupy the land," and the "way we acquire and spend capital," in response to peak oil.

The next month, the Post, remarked that the "world may have arrived at Peak Oil," while acknowledging that "this may not be literally true."

"[E]stimates of vast undiscovered oil reservoirs imply that Peak Oil is decades away," said Robert J. Samuelson. "But governments that control 75 percent or more of known reserves are behaving as if Peak Oil is already here."

"The grim price outlook by [economist Jeffrey] Rubin and others presumes that this situation persists," he said.

"Of course, they could be wrong."

By December 2011 the Post pronounced, "Oil's getting harder and harder to come by."

But, of course, they could be wrong.

In 2015 the Post and Samuelson declared, "The retreat of ‘peak oil.'"

"Oil is a finite natural resource," Samuelson said. "There's only so much of it. When it's gone, it's gone."

"The trouble is," Samuelson added, "that this compelling logic has yet to play out in the real world."

http://freebeacon.com/blog/whatever-happened-peak-oil/

Agelbert NOTE: The above article contains several links that you may wish to peruse to get to the truth. You don't need to believe a word Palloy or I say. You are, as far as I can tell, fairly objective about this. If you do all the proper research, you will come to the conclusion that Peak Oil is not a problem, or an obstacle so insurmountable as to cause a collapse, and never was, as far as obtaining energy to run this Polluting Monstrocity called Human civilization.

THIS IS THE TRUTH:

Quote
So, how long before we run out of fossil fuels? In order to project how much time we have left before the world runs out of oil, gas, and coal, one method is measuring the R/P ratios — that is the ratio of reserves to current rates of production. At the current rates of production, oil will run out in 53 years, natural gas in 54, and coal in 110. This is bearing in mind a 2015 World Energy Outlook study by the International Energy Agency, which predicted fossil fuels will constitute 59% of the total primary energy demand in 2040, even despite aggressive climate action policies.

Other researchers, organizations, and governments have different deadlines for fossil fuel exhaustion, depending on the data and assumptions that they make, as well as political affiliation and interests. The American Petroleum Institute estimated in 1999 the world’s oil supply would be depleted between 2062 and 2094, assuming total world oil reserves at between 1.4 and 2 trillion barrels. In 2006, however, the Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) predicted that 3.74 trillion barrels of oil remained in the Earth — three times the number estimated by peak oil proponents. 👀


Is Peak Oil behind us? Not clear

While we know for sure that the exploitation of fossil fuels is limited, estimates can vary wildly because new deposits are sometimes found and new technology enables access to previously untapped oil or gas fields or allows more efficient extraction. So, the challenge in estimating a timescale for fossil fuel depletion lies in the fact that new resources are added fairly regularly. Therefore, we have to keep in mind that all of these estimates are based on R/P ratios and thereby only consider proven reserves, not probable or possible reserves of resources. For instance, in 1980, the R/P ratio suggested only 32 years of oil production from existing reserves. 

A 1977 report issued by the Energy Information Administration concluded that the United States could only access 32 billion barrels of oil reserves and 207 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves. But from then to 2010, the country extracted 84 billion barrels of oil (2.6 times more than the initial estimate) and 610 trillion cubic feet of gas (2.9 times the initial reserve estimate). What’s more, reserves are growing. Today, the U.S. has increased the size of its reserves by a third since 2011 thanks to horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracking which enable access to oil and gas trapped in underground rock formation. Previously, it wasn’t economically feasible to extract these resources.

As technology continues to improve, both governments and oil & gas companies will be able to access new reserves — some that can’t currently be exploited and others that are still unidentified.

https://www.zmescience.com/other/feature-post/how-long-fossil-fuels-last-43432/

Palloy cannot handle the truth, so he claims the Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) numbers are "fake news". 

Here are a few token examples of what is really going on out there. You know th  Canada tar sands part and the USA fracking part that are both producing monstrous amounts of fossil fuels. You probably know about the Troll A (which cost about 15 billion dollars to plant on the North Sea bottom) ocean platform that is pumpin oil and gas in mega amounts.
 
There are many, many untapped fields like the one they found near the Falklands two years ago with several BILLIONS of oil waiting to be extracted when the price is right.

Shell JUST BEGAN to pump gas from the Gulf of Mexico at $30 a BOE. Does that sound like a well they want to husband because its going to run out quick? I don't think so.

Shell just made operational the largest floating structure ever made by humans, the purpose of which is to drill for and pump gas out of the ocean bottom at multi-well rates.

Exxon is busy doing all sorts of production I do not have time to go into. They are producing MORE, not less, hydrocarbon product. Then there is China, Russia the Saudis, Qatar, Iran, Norway etc.

ONE THIRD of the traffic in the Panama Canal is now gas bulk carriers, when less than 5 years go, it was ZIP!

As K-Dog stated, we've got coal out the whazzo. Even if every oil and gas well petered out tomorrow, a ridiculously unlikely scenario, coal through the process you have probably read about called gassification, can be feed stock for any and all hydrocarbon crap we now use to make plastics, fertilizers, lubricants, gasolne, diesel (and so on).

Yeah, it's the MOTHER of pollution generating processes, but so what? Almost everybody on this forum is so fucking fixated on ENERGY, that pollution does not seem to be an issue. Okay, if we don't give a flat fuck about pollution, then we simply do not have to worry about peak fossil fuels, even if the oil and gas peter out on Palloy's alarmist "the sky is falling" schedule. This is logical. This is objective. The peak oil meme is not applicable in the real world, period.

The "hydrocarbon burning pollution will kill us" IS applicable for those who inhabit the reality based community.

Did you know that Trumpy just reversed an Obama rule that would not allow drilling for oil and gas in those Great Lakes that border you country? Yeah, he just did that this month. I don't think that is too encouraging to people who like clean water, do you?

The discovery made in the article I posted yesterday is just ONE, of many that are going on as we speak all over this God forskaen, fossil fuel loving, fucked up world. Celebrate cheap oil if you wish, but don't beleive the bullshit about it running out, at least not in your lifetime.

On this thread, I will make it a habit of posting articles on oil production rates and new discoveries of fossil fuels that can be tapped with present technology. It will be entertaining to watch Palloy try to talk his way around those news items. Stay tuned.
4
Seasteading / Re: Seastead of the Day
« Last post by Eddie on Today at 11:49:48 AM »
Center cockpit boats generally aren't as beautiful as aft cockpit boats. But it's the only way you can design a boat of under 40 feet and still get a big aft cabin, with privacy for two couples, which figures into the equation since a lot of these boats are built for bareboat charter when they're new.

A "modern" (1980 or newer)  38 ft cockpit boat like my old sailing buddy's Endeavor 38 has more room below than a 50 ft Columbia or any of those other old long CCA rule boats. They're beamier and have a longer waterline. The waterline on a Columbia 50 is only 33.25 ft and the beam is only 12 ft.

Those older boats are much saltier looking boats though, and some of them sail to weather better too. But slips get rented by the foot. A small 50 ft boat still takes a 50 ft slip. The difference adds up.
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Seasteading / Re: Seastead of the Day
« Last post by Eddie on Today at 11:36:51 AM »
Sorry you're hurtin'.

Your sailing days might be over, but we can always entertain ourselves with online boat shopping. The possibilities are endless.

Walkovers aren't my favorite either, but a lot of CSY 44's are built that way. But not all of them. And where I'd likely sail, passing through the cockpit going to the fridge isn't much of a problem. This one has a full cockpit enclosure anyway, although it's all canvas and clear vinyl. They do that here and in FL so they can air-condition the cockpit when berthed. It gets hot here in the summer time.

In reality, I'd guess most live-aboards end up using the aft cabin for storage in a CSY anyway. LOL.

I'm trying to look at boats now that might be distress sales, in places like the Keys or FL Gulf Coast, because the hurricane took out so many boats here. The website for my favorite Rockport boat broker isn't even up anymore. Maybe they decided to retire. A favorite Houston broker closed too. I don't want a boat that needs a bunch of work before it can be sailed home, and most brokerage boats need something.

I keep looking, with the idea that I might just luck on to a fine deal I cant pass up. If I had a bigger retirement kitty, I'd quit the rat race and sail away.

If the missus steps in front of a bus, I'm done. I'm only working for her old age now. She is very healthy, but her own mother only lived five years longer than her age now, and my father only lived about seven years longer than my age now. Carpe diem for all of us. I wish you were in a little better health, so you could have more fun. Pain sucks. Immobility sucks.
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Seasteading / Re: Seastead of the Day
« Last post by RE on Today at 11:06:18 AM »
In my youth I was a fan of center cockpits, but not now.  I like to have as much space as possible in the Main Cabin.  I DEFINITELY don't like the Walkover configuration. Want a snack from the galley? Sailing in cold blustery weather and need to use the head? If I were to buy a Center Cockpit, it would have to be one with a passageway to aft.

At $80K it's not entirely out of budget, but we have looked at nicer ones for $60K.

In any event, at the moment even to buy one just to live-aboard and not sail is out of the question.  I can't walk at all now, much less get myself on and off a boat  or up and down the companionway.  I am lucky I can maneuver my Cripple Cart around the digs to accomplish the necessary daily tasks.  The pain is horrible. 😣  I have to get into the ER and get some Morphine.  Even my scrip Hydro Codone doesn't put a dent in it.  Unfortunately, the phone is still not here.  Hopefully this situation will improve and I can get back to dreaming about the Good Ship Cassandra as my home on the Seven Seas.  :icon_sunny:

RE
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Economics / Re: 💸 Get your Social Security NOW while you still can!
« Last post by RE on Today at 10:32:10 AM »
I look for a real horse race to see what does humankind in.....will it be climate (to me that seems like the surest bet), or will it be PO and/or a  failure of bank credit. Or an apocalyptic event like a nuke war.

Yes, I would say the planet's best hope would be if reality set in on the economics of oil....and we ran out of oil and cheap debt.

But I don't think that is imminent. We don't do the right things. We do the WRONG things. Doing the wrong thing here just means keeping on doing what we're doing now. Which is always easier, until it isn't.

Even an "accidental" war is a Bankster War.  They set up the conditions which makes the "accident" possible,

RE

An "apocalyptic event" like a Nuke War is an outgrowth of economic collapse.  As the saying goes, all warz are bankster warz.  Although climate change will be a significant driver in total global collapse, I think the timeline on that is longer than on economic collapse, so to me, economic collapse is what will "do us in".

RE

A nuclear war could be an outgrowth of economic collapse. It could also be a complete accident. We've come close several times.

The extreme hubris of those in our highest positions of authority, and the many different ways the unintended could happen, makes it hard to understand how we got this far without it happening.
8
Seasteading / Re: Seastead of the Day
« Last post by Eddie on Today at 09:57:40 AM »
The CSY 44 is one of the better production sailboats ever built. It was actually the brainchild of a dentist, a guy named Van Ost. He started a new kind of charter company, inventing a business model that several other companies now still use, although he and his company folded a long time ago now.

He came up with the idea of selling boats to people and then leasing them back to charter them for a few years, which helped the owner make his boat payment and provided Van Ost with boats to rent. The charter company did the maintenance and watched over the boats, which I think were based out of Tortola at that time. It wasn't a bad deal.

He wanted to build boats that were stouter and able to stand up to the slings and arrows of amateur sailors who tend to be hard on rentals. So he found somebody to custom build what he wanted.

The CSY 44 was the flagship boat for Van Ost's fleet, and it ended up being about the best production charter boat of all time. There are a good many still out there, and some of them have been upgraded and re-powered, as is this example. The 75 hp Volvo looks new, and clean enough to eat off of.

One common cabin layout was a two cabin style called a walk-over, where the larger aft cabin is accessed through a cockpit hatch and there is no passageway from the salon to the aft cabin.

One thing that I would be concerned about is that many of these are "shoal draft", and that version was just accomplished simply by cutting off part of the encapsulated keel, the deepest part of which was made from solid concrete. From a design standpoint this "simplified" way of decreasing the draft creates questions of whether the boats' ultimate stability would be affected, especially if the rig and sail area were not reduced proportionally, which was not the case, from what I read.

A lot of these have sailed around the world, and the designers, who are still alive, report that it was never a problem, and that the shoal draft boats sail almost as well to weather as the deep keel version. Still, if I were buying one, I'd look for the deep keel.  But somebody who only wanted to sail in the Gulf of Mexico and the Bahamas might have good reason to go for the short keel instead.

They have nice big tanks, but they're made of glass fiber and integral to the hull, so when they do leak, it's hard to deal with. I looked at several of these. I think this one has had a fuel tank replacement, which for this boat was probably an expensive repair/upgrade.



At nearly 80K asking, it isn't an el cheapo, but it does have a lot of nice stuff added, and looks to be in sailaway condition. It's a cutter rigged sloop with a self-tending staysail, so it would be comparatively easy to sail short handed, I think. Still a bigger boat than I'd want to sail alone, but that's doable.

http://www.sailboatlistings.com/view/71278





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Economics / Re: 💸 Get your Social Security NOW while you still can!
« Last post by Eddie on Today at 08:10:00 AM »
I look for a real horse race to see what does humankind in.....will it be climate (to me that seems like the surest bet), or will it be PO and/or a  failure of bank credit. Or an apocalyptic event like a nuke war.

Yes, I would say the planet's best hope would be if reality set in on the economics of oil....and we ran out of oil and cheap debt.

But I don't think that is imminent. We don't do the right things. We do the WRONG things. Doing the wrong thing here just means keeping on doing what we're doing now. Which is always easier, until it isn't.

An "apocalyptic event" like a Nuke War is an outgrowth of economic collapse.  As the saying goes, all warz are bankster warz.  Although climate change will be a significant driver in total global collapse, I think the timeline on that is longer than on economic collapse, so to me, economic collapse is what will "do us in".

RE

A nuclear war could be an outgrowth of economic collapse. It could also be a complete accident. We've come close several times.

The extreme hubris of those in our highest positions of authority, and the many different ways the unintended could happen, makes it hard to understand how we got this far without it happening.
10
Spirituality & Mysticism / Re: Spiritual Sex: 3 Types of Divine Union
« Last post by Karpatok on Today at 08:07:55 AM »
I'm more of a Joe Bageant type. I won't be throwing myself on the mercy of the medics. I avoid doctors like the plague, and I fully intend to die with the heart and liver I was born with, both of which are functioning just fine. And all my teeth, sans 3rd molars.

I don't smoke cigarettes and I have now once again given up alcohol, although I miss red wine a lot. If I had to guess, I'd bet on a stroke for me. Strokes seem to run in my family.

I don't fear death, although I dearly do love life. I fear the indignity of being helpless and useless. My prayer is just to be spared that. I won't let that happen if I can at all avoid it.

              My true sentiments completely.  I am extremely grateful that I was given life at all. I honor my father and my mother for everything they gave me and made possible for me and therefore for their grandchildren and great grandchildren, my children and grandchildren. I have never contemplated suicide, life was just too precious even when I was depressed by this or that in a lifetime of living.
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