Doomstead Diner Menu => Geopolitics => Topic started by: Palloy2 on June 07, 2018, 08:38:34 PM

Title: The G7 thread
Post by: Palloy2 on June 07, 2018, 08:38:34 PM
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-07/trump-plans-adopting-confrontational-tone-g-7-response-g-6-pressure (https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-07/trump-plans-adopting-confrontational-tone-g-7-response-g-6-pressure)
"The Old Order Is Over": Trump To "Confront" G-7 As Macron Plans On "Standing Up" To US President
Tyler Durden
06/07/2018

In comments made alongside Canada PM Justin Trudeau in Ottawa, French President Emmanuel Macron said that no head of state is "eternal” and that he stands ready to work with the six other Group of Seven members if U.S. wants to stand alone.

"You say President Trump doesn’t care. Maybe. But none of us are eternal and our countries, the commitments taken, go beyond us. None of us who have been elected by the people can say ‘all prior commitments disappear.’ It’s just not true, there is a continuity in state affairs at the heart of international laws. Sometimes we’ve inherited some commitments that weren’t core to our beliefs, but we stuck to them, because that is how it works for nations. And that will be the case for the United States - like for every great democracy", Macron said quoted by Bloomberg.

Macron also said he doesn’t exclude a G-6+1 situation at the upcoming G-7 meeting: "Maybe the U.S. President doesn’t care to be isolated but we don’t care being with the six together,” Macron says, adding they represent values, a “global force” and an economic market

The French president then launched a thinly veiled threat: "the combination of the six markets of the G-7 group is bigger than the U.S. market" and cautioned Trump that "there is no global hegemony if we can organize" adding he will “fight against hegemony”

* * *

Ahead of what is shaping up as the most confrontational G-7 meeting in history (the first meeting took place in 1975), we reported that Germany chancellor Angela Merkel already was setting the ground for the Toronto showdown among the world's top political leaders - where Trump will also be present - vowing to challenge Donald Trump on virtually every issue, from trade to climate, and warning that the lack of room for compromise means leaders may fail to agree on a final statement, an unprecedented event at a summit of the world's 7 most advanced nations.

Speaking before German lawmakers on Wednesday, two days before the G-7 summit starts in Canada, Merkel said that Trump’s "America First" doctrine shows that “we have a serious problem with multilateral agreements." She added that failure to reach common ground could lead to the highly unusual step of host Canada issuing a concluding statement not agreed by all participants, according to Bloomberg.

Merkel said she plans to speak to Trump specifically about trade at the G-7. “There will be some controversial discussions” at the gathering, she told lawmakers. Germany will make sure that what was agreed on trade and climate at the last G-7 summit and at a G-20 meeting will be maintained in joint statements from the two-day meeting in Quebec "if any are agreed."

Commenting on Merkel's warning yesterday, we said that "we doubt Trump will be too "burned" by that statement."

And according to overnight newsflow, that is indeed the case and that if Merkel was hoping to "soften" Trump up by warning about the upcoming showdown between the US and the rest of the world, she made a mistake, because wires report that President Trump is said to be planning on adopting a confrontational tone at G7 in response to the other 6 nations collectively pressuring him regarding tariffs.

Which, of course, is hardly a major discover: after all "adopting a confrontational tone" is what Trump does, period. However, now that it has been formalized, this may actually be a G-7 meeting - traditionally boring and slow-moving - worth watching closely, if only for how the world's 6 most advanced nations + America will try to contain the fall out from what will likely be the first documented failure of globalization.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that France joined Germany in warning US President Trump that they will not sign a joint statement at the G7 summit, with President Macron warning that progress must be made on tariffs and other contentious issues. Macron has concluded that other G-7 leaders must stand up to the American president, according to the Bloomberg source.  Commenting on this particular threat, UBS chief economist Paul Donovan said:

    The EU announced a list of products subject to a 25% consumer tax – products all partially made in the US. Ahead of tomorrow's G6 plus 1 summit, French President Macron indicated France may not sign the statement if the US does not change its approach. Clearly, this is a terrifying threat (though it does rather emphasise US isolationism, which markets may worry about).

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow tried to play down the tension on Wednesday, describing it a “family quarrel" and telling reporters that “Trump is trying to fix this broken system,” adding that "He’s sticking to his guns. He’s going to talk to them. The lines are open."

Good luck: "The meeting this week will be by far the most dysfunctional G-7,” said Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, a political-risk consulting firm. "The old order is over. What we are fighting over now, as the new order emerges, is whether the U.S. wants to have the most important seat at the table or not. Right now the answer is no."

We look forward to the fallout from the acrimonious meeting, and how the market spins as bullish this particular instance of the US and the rest of the world drifting further apart.
Title: Re: The G7 thread
Post by: Palloy2 on June 11, 2018, 09:28:33 PM
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-11/pepe-escobar-putin-xi-top-g61 (https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-11/pepe-escobar-putin-xi-top-g61)
Putin & Xi Top The G6+1
Pepe Escobar
06/12/2018

All hell broke loose at the G6+1, aka G7, while the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) aimed at global integration and a peaceful multipolar order...

East vs. West: the contrast between the “dueling summits” this weekend was something for the history books.

All hell broke loose at the G6+1, otherwise known as G7, in La Malbaie, Canada, while all focused on divine Eurasian integration at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in China’s Qingdao in Shandong, the home province of Confucius.

US President Donald Trump was the predictable star of the show in Canada. He came late. He left early. He skipped a working breakfast. He disagreed with everybody. He issued a “free trade proclamation”, as in no barriers and tariffs whatsoever, everywhere, after imposing steel and aluminum tariffs on Europe and Canada. He proposed that Russia should be back at the G8 (Putin said he has other priorities). He signed the final communiqué and then he didn’t.

Trump’s “I don’t give a damn” attitude drove the European leaders assembled in Canada crazy. After the official photo shoot, the US president grabbed the arm of new Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and said, in ecstasy, “You’ve had a great electoral victory!”

The Euros were not pleased and forced Conte to abide by the official EU, as in German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s, policy: no G8 readmission to Russia as long as Moscow does not respect the Minsk agreements. In fact it is Ukraine that is not respecting the Minsk agreements; Trump and Conte are fully aligned on Russia.

Merkel, in extremis, proposed a “shared evaluation mechanism”, lasting roughly two weeks, to try to defuse rising trade tensions.

Yet the Trump administration does not seem to be interested.

“Strategic” game-changer

Meanwhile, over in Qingdao, the stunning takeaway was offered predictably by Chinese President Xi Jinping; “President Putin and I both think that the China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership is mature, firm and stable.”

This is a massive game-changer because officially, so far, this was a “comprehensive partnership.” It’s the first time on record that Xi has put the stress on “strategic”. Again, in his own words: “It is the highest-level, most profound and strategically most significant relationship between major countries in the world.”

And if that was not far-reaching enough, it’s also personal. Xi, referring to Putin and perhaps channeling Trump’s bonhomie with leaders he likes, said, “He is my best, most intimate friend.”

Heavy business, as usual, was in order. The Chinese partnered with Russian nuclear energy giant Rosatom to get advanced nuclear technologies and diversify nuclear power contracts beyond its current Western suppliers. That’s the “strategic” energy alliance component of the partnership.

In a trilateral Russia-China-Mongolia meeting, they all vowed to go full steam ahead with the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor – one of the key planks of the New Silk Roads, known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Mongolia once again volunteered to become a transit hub for Russian gas to China, diversifying from Gazprom’s current direct pipelines from Blagoveshchensk, Vladivostok and Altai. According to Putin, the Eastern Route pipeline remains on schedule, as does the US$27 billion liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Yamal being financed by Russian and Chinese companies.

On the Arctic, Putin and Xi went all the way for developing the Northern Sea Route, including crucial modernization of deep-water ports such as Murmansk and Arkhangelsk, and investment in infrastructure. The added geopolitical cachet is self-evident.

Putin had said last week that annual trade between Moscow and Beijing will soon reach US$100 billion. Currently, it stands at US$86 billion. Now Russian businesses venture the possibility of reaching US$200 billion by 2020 as feasible.

All this frenzy of activity is now openly described by Putin as the interconnectivity of BRI and the Russia-led Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU). Not to mention that the SCO itself interconnects with both BRI and the EAEU.

Putin told Chinese TV channel CGTN that though the SCO began as a “low-profile organization” [back in 2001] that sought merely to “solve border issues” between China, Russia and former Soviet countries, it is now evolving into a much bigger global force.

In parallel, according to Yu Jianlong, secretary general of the China Chamber of International Commerce, the SCO has now gathered extra collective strength to harness BRI expansion to increase business across Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

So it’s no wonder companies from SCO nations are now being “encouraged” to use their own currencies to seal deals, bypassing the US dollar, as well as building e-commerce platforms, Alibaba-style. So far, Beijing has invested US$84 billion in other SCO members, mostly in energy, minerals, transportation (including, for instance, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan highway), construction and manufacturing.

Putin also met with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on the sidelines of the SCO and vowed in no uncertain terms to preserve the Iranian nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA.

Iran is a current SCO observer nation. Putin once again reaffirmed he wants Tehran as a full member. The SCO charter determines that “a dialogue partner status can be granted to a country that shares the goals and principles of the SCO and wants to establish relations based on equal and mutually profitable relationship.”

Iran, as an observer, fulfills the commitment. The spanner in the works happens to be tiny Tajikistan.

Enter the trademark convoluted internal politics of the Central Asian stans, in this case revolving around Tajik president Emomali Rahmon accepting Saudi Arabia’s acquisition of a 51% stake in Tajikistan’s largest bank. Nobody else wanted it; Riyadh was just buying influence.

All SCO full members must be approved unanimously. Still, that won’t prevent larger economic integration between Iran, Russia and China. The talk in the SCO corridors was that Chinese companies expect an extra bonanza in the Iranian market after the unilateral Trump pullout of the JCPOA.

Behind closed doors, as diplomats told Asia Times, the SCO also discussed the crucial plan devised by the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group, an Asia-wide peace process with Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan trying to finally solve the decades-long tragedy without Western interference.
So what about a G3?

The “dueling summits” clearly set the scene. The G7 meeting at La Malbaie represented the dysfunctional old order, dilacerated by largely self-inflicted chaos and its apoplexy at the Rise of the East – from the integration of BRI, EAEU, SCO and BRICS, to the yuan-based gold-backed oil futures market.

In contrast to the G7’s full spectrum dominance doctrine of total military superiority, Qingdao represented the new groove. Implacably derided by the old order as autocratic and filled with “democraships” bent on “aggression”, in fact it was a graphic illustration of multi-polarity at work, the intersection of four great civilizations, an Eurasian Café debating that another, non-War Party conducted future is possible.

In parallel, diplomats in Brussels confirmed to Asia Times there are insistent rumbles about Trump possibly dreaming of a G3 composed of just US, Russia and China. Trump, after all, personally admires the leadership qualities of both Putin and Xi, while deriding the Kafkaesque EU bureaucratic maze and its weaklings, currently represented by the M3 (Merkel, Macron, May).

In Europe, no one seems to be listening to informed advice, such as provided by Belgian economist Paul de Grauwe, who’s pleading for Frankfurt and Berlin to manage a common debt, without which the EU won’t survive the sovereign crises of individual members.

Trump, for all his dizzying inconsistencies, seems to have understood that the G7 is a Walking Dead, and the heart of the action revolves around China, Russia and India, which not by accident form the hard node of BRICS.

The problem is the US national security strategy, as well as the national defense strategy, advocate no less than Cold War 2.0 against both China and Russia all across Eurasia. All bets are off, however, on who blinks first.
Title: Re: The G7 thread
Post by: Agent Graves on June 12, 2018, 04:02:26 AM
Spot on, and in the middle of the meeting Xi gets a phone call. 'Its Justin Trudo-Castro, he wants to know if you need any timber or tarsand?'  Petro yuan settlements  jump to 20% and american carpenters struggle.
Title: Re: The G7 thread
Post by: Palloy2 on June 12, 2018, 07:03:12 AM
ABC's Business program has an "expert market analyst" who said the market's didn't react to the ridiculous events at the G7 and US-NK summit because they have learned not to take anything Trump says seriously, because it will probably be different tomorrow, without any reason.  All the trade wars tough talk was paraded in the media beforehand, and everybody stuck to the script, being really tough.  The summit's good news was all paraded in the media beforehand, while the bad news was totally blacked out, and everybody stuck to the script, although the details of what was decided is still not known.  (Can anyone think of a reason for that?)  Trump said the US will stop its war games with South Korea.  Was that in the written agreement? - no.

Next, the FOMC is meeting with the outcome due on Thursday (gamblers think 95% chance they will raise rates 0.25%)
Title: Re: The G7 thread
Post by: Surly1 on June 12, 2018, 07:16:30 AM
As I read somewhere earlier today, if a president of the United States were to sketch out a secret, detailed plan to break up the Atlantic alliance, that plan would bear a striking resemblance to Trump’s behavior.

Quote from: NYT
It would involve outward hostility to the leaders of Canada, Britain, France, Germany and Japan. Specifically, it would involve picking fights over artificial issues — not to win big concessions for the United States, but to create conflict for the sake of it.

A secret plan to break up the West would also have the United States looking for new allies to replace the discarded ones. The most obvious would be Russia, the biggest rival within Europe to Germany, France and Britain. And just as Russia does, a United States intent on wrecking the Atlantic alliance would meddle in the domestic politics of other countries to install new governments that also rejected the old alliance.

As I have asked elsewhere, Cui bono? Me, I think it's the boy holding the pee-pee tape and otgher kompromat.

Trump Tries to Destroy the West (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/10/opinion/g7-trump-quebec-trudeau.html)

David Leonhardt

By David Leonhardt

President Trump at the Group of 7 summit meeting in Quebec on Friday. Credit Doug Mills/The New York Times

The alliance between the United States and Western Europe has accomplished great things. It won two world wars in the first half of the 20th century. Then it expanded to include its former enemies and went on to win the Cold War, help spread democracy and build the highest living standards the world has ever known.

President Trump is trying to destroy that alliance.

Is that how he thinks about it? Who knows. It’s impossible to get inside his head and divine his strategic goals, if he even has long-term goals. But put it this way: If a president of the United States were to sketch out a secret, detailed plan to break up the Atlantic alliance, that plan would bear a striking resemblance to Trump’s behavior.

It would involve outward hostility to the leaders of Canada, Britain, France, Germany and Japan. Specifically, it would involve picking fights over artificial issues — not to win big concessions for the United States, but to create conflict for the sake of it.

A secret plan to break up the West would also have the United States looking for new allies to replace the discarded ones. The most obvious would be Russia, the biggest rival within Europe to Germany, France and Britain. And just as Russia does, a United States intent on wrecking the Atlantic alliance would meddle in the domestic politics of other countries to install new governments that also rejected the old alliance.

Check. Check. Check. Check. Trump is doing every one of these things.

He chose not to attend the full G-7 meeting, in Quebec, this past weekend. While he was there, he picked fights. By now, you’ve probably seenthe photographreleased by the German government — of Trump sitting down, with eyebrows raised and crossed arms, while Germany’s Angela Merkel and other leaders stand around him, imploring. Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, wears a look of defeat.

No wonder. The meeting’s central disagreements were over tariffs that Trump has imposedfor false reasons. He claims that he’s merely responding to other countries. But the average current tariff of the United States, Britain, Germany and France is identical,according to the World Bank: 1.6 percent. Japan’s is 1.4 percent, and Canada’s is 0.8 percent. Yes, every country has a few objectionable tariffs, but they’re small — and the United States is not a victim here.

So Trump isn’t telling the truth about trade,much as he has liedabout Barack Obama’s birthplace, his own position on the Iraq War, his inauguration crowd, voter fraud, the murder rate, Mexican immigrants, the Russia investigation, the Stormy Daniels hush money andseveral hundred other subjects. The tariffs aren’t a case of his identifying a real problem but describing it poorly. He is threatening the Atlantic alliance over a lie.

If you need more evidence, look at his tweets after leaving the summit. Close readers of Trump’s Twitter feed (and I don’t envy that title) have learned that he often accuses others of committing his own sins. On Saturday, he called Justin Trudeau, Canada’s prime minister, “very dishonest.”

While Trudeau and other historical allies get disdain, Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong-un and various aspiring authoritarians are bathed in praise. Trump and his aides have promoted far-right politicians in Germany and elsewhere. In Quebec, he made excuses for Russia’s annexation of Crimea and argued that Russia should be readmitted to the G-7.Jay Nordlinger, the conservative writer, asked, “Why is he talking like an RT host?” — RT being Russia Today, a government-funded television network.

I don’t know the answer. But it’s past time to take seriously the only explanation for all of Trump’s behavior: Hewantsto destroy the Western alliance.

Maybe it’s ideological, and he prefers Putin-style authoritarianism to democracy. Or maybe he has no grand strategy and Putin really does have some compromising information. Or maybe Trump just likes being against what every other modern American president was for.

Whatever the reason, his behavior requires a response that’s as serious as the threat. Asthe political scientist Brendan Nyhan pointed out, this past weekend felt like a turning point: “The Western alliance and the global trading system are coming under the same intense strain that Trump has created for our domestic institutions.”

For America’s longtime allies, the response means shedding the hopeful optimism that characterized the early approach taken by Trudeau and Emmanuel Macron, France’s president. Merkel is the right role model. She has been tougher, without needlessly escalating matters, because she has understood the threat all along.

For Trump’s fellow Republicans, it means putting country over party. A few Republicans,like John McCain, offered appropriately alarmed words in the last two days. Now members of Congress need to do more than send anguished tweets. They should offer legislation that would restrain Trump and hold hearings meantto uncover his motives.

For American voters, it means understanding the real stakes of this year’s midterm elections. They are not merely a referendum on a tax cut, a health care plan or a president’s unorthodox style. They are a referendum on American ideals that are older than any of us.

Title: Re: The G7 thread
Post by: g on June 12, 2018, 07:31:22 AM
What's your point Palloy, except that everything you find not to your liking is propaganda.?

Do you really think something written on a piece of paper sanctifies it?

How about the Third Reich and it's peace treaty with England??

There has been a dramatic break through in tensions between two enemy states, at least for now that is a definite positive.

As a mere proper posting reminder, the Summit with Kim does not belong on the G7 Thread IMO, nor does the upcoming Fed meeting. You may be in a confused state of mind due the positive outcome and quick speed of the Kim,Trump meeting. Relax, tension, conflict, war and atomic weaponry are still very much with us. Enjoy a few moments of Sunshine Palloy, it will rain again.   
Title: Re: The G7 thread
Post by: g on June 12, 2018, 07:39:38 AM
You to Surly, Give the Trump hate a break for at least a few hours.

This latest bull shit piece about President Trump trying to destroy the West is unbecoming a gent with your intelligence.

Try thinking today about the millions of your fellow citizens losing jobs to Canada,Mexico, etc due NAFTA, despite the warnings of Ross Perot, a gent we both have high regard for.

We have screwed the American Worker long enough.
Title: Re: The G7 thread
Post by: Surly1 on June 12, 2018, 08:40:49 AM
You to Surly, Give the Trump hate a break for at least a few hours.

This latest bull shit piece about President Trump trying to destroy the West is unbecoming a gent with your intelligence.

Try thinking today about the millions of your fellow citizens losing jobs to Canada,Mexico, etc due NAFTA, despite the warnings of Ross Perot, a gent we both have high regard for.

We have screwed the American Worker long enough.

What's this "we" shit? I AM an American worker.

Also, the  article speaks for itself. If an American President were to embark on a campaign to loosen the ties of the western alliance, would it not look identical to that prosecuted by the Orange Lout?

Bullshit piece?   I ask once again the question you dare not answer: Cui bono? Everything about this so-called "administration" is about looting the commons and personal enrichment. The fact that it annoys anyone left of the US Chamber of Commerce is just lagniappe for the drooling right.

Scott Walker has in the past called a wall with Canada "a legitimate idea." When we build it, I intend to be on the other side.
Title: Re: The G7 thread
Post by: g on June 12, 2018, 11:51:20 AM
Quote
What's this "we" shit? I AM an American worker.

Not one who lost his job to Mexico or Canada obviously.

You share the same concern for them as the Clinton's and Obama.
Title: Re: The G7 thread
Post by: Surly1 on June 12, 2018, 01:49:11 PM
Quote
What's this "we" shit? I AM an American worker.

Not one who lost his job to Mexico or Canada obviously.

You share the same concern for them as the Clinton's and Obama.

This is actually a useful link that seems to explain in factual terms what actually happened as a result of NAFTA:
NAFTA's Winners And Losers https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/north-american-free-trade-agreement.asp#ixzz5IFIRO300 (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/north-american-free-trade-agreement.asp#ixzz5IFIRO300)

To your point, NAFTA's implementation has coincided with a 30% drop in manufacturing employment, from 17.7 million jobs at the end of 1993 to 12.3 million at the end of 2016. As you know, coincidence is not causation. Other causes have driven the shuttering of factories and manufacturing job loss-- as you also know.

There are gains in some areas and losses in others, as in many trade treaties. Which at least nominally subscribe to a set of agreed principles, unlike a trade war.

Quote
Whether NAFTA is directly responsible for this decline is difficult to say, however. The automotive industry is usually considered to be one of the hardest-hit by the agreement; yet although the U.S. vehicle market was immediately opened up to Mexican competition, employment in the sector grew for years after NAFTA's introduction, peaking at nearly 1.3 million in October 2000. Jobs began to slip away at that point, and losses grew steeper with the financial crisis. At its low in June 2009, American auto manufacturing employed just 623,000 people. While that figure has since risen to 948,000, it remains 27% below its pre-NAFTA level.

Anecdotal evidence supports the idea that these jobs went to Mexico. Wages in Mexico are a fraction of what they are in the U.S. All major American car makers now have factories south of the border, and prior to Trump's twitter campaign against offshoring, a few were openly planning to ship more jobs abroad. Yet while the job losses are tough to deny, they may be less severe than in a hypothetical NAFTA-less world.

If Trump tears up NAFTA, at least we will no longer have to worry about institution of the Amero.
(https://us-east-1.tchyn.io/snopes-production/uploads/images/politics/graphics/amero.jpg?resize=240,240)


https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/amero-coins/ (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/amero-coins/)
Somewhere, Hal Turner is whining.
Title: Re: The G7 thread
Post by: Surly1 on June 12, 2018, 02:11:49 PM
Add NAFTA (I continued reading.) Because whothehell among us knows all the ins and outs of NAFTA, and has scored the winner and losers?

Every anecdote becomes a bullet.

Quote
NAFTA displays the classic free-trade quandary: diffuse benefits with concentrated costs. While the economy as a whole may have seen a slight boost, certain sectors and communities experienced profound disruption. A town in the Southeast loses hundreds of jobs when a textile mill closes, but hundreds of thousands of people find their clothes marginally cheaper. Depending on how you quantify it, the overall economic gain is probably greater, but barely perceptible at the individual level; the overall economic loss is small in the grand scheme of things, but devastating for those it affects directly.


True enough.

The effects of manufacturing job loss were even greater in textiles than in automaking. OTOH, those low, low prices at the house of the smiley face.

Like most treaties, trade issues are highly nuanced with many, many interlocking parts. And the issues can never be reduced to a bumper sticker slogan,demagogues notwithstanding.

Read more: NAFTA's Winners And Losers https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/north-american-free-trade-agreement.asp#ixzz5IFP3N5OL (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/north-american-free-trade-agreement.asp#ixzz5IFP3N5OL)
Title: Re: The G7 thread
Post by: Eddie on June 12, 2018, 02:19:51 PM
Scott Walker has in the past called a wall with Canada "a legitimate idea." When we build it, I intend to be on the other side.


It's a legitimate idea for Canadians. Wait until most of the midwest is desert. They'll be building a wall to keep out the wetbacks from the US of A.
Title: Re: The G7 thread
Post by: RE on June 12, 2018, 03:53:08 PM
Scott Walker has in the past called a wall with Canada "a legitimate idea." When we build it, I intend to be on the other side.


It's a legitimate idea for Canadians. Wait until most of the midwest is desert. They'll be building a wall to keep out the wetbacks from the US of A.

How do you build a wall across the Great Lakes?  Not to mention said wall dwarfs the length of the proposed Mexican wall.  Where would Canada get the resources and manpower to build such a wall?  It's preposterous.

RE
Title: Re: The G7 thread
Post by: Eddie on June 12, 2018, 04:04:53 PM
I'm planning to build a midget sub to cross Lake Huron and infiltrate cottage country.
Title: Re: The G7 thread
Post by: g on June 12, 2018, 04:10:20 PM
Add NAFTA (I continued reading.) Because whothehell among us knows all the ins and outs of NAFTA, and has scored the winner and losers?

Every anecdote becomes a bullet.

Quote
NAFTA displays the classic free-trade quandary: diffuse benefits with concentrated costs. While the economy as a whole may have seen a slight boost, certain sectors and communities experienced profound disruption. A town in the Southeast loses hundreds of jobs when a textile mill closes, but hundreds of thousands of people find their clothes marginally cheaper. Depending on how you quantify it, the overall economic gain is probably greater, but barely perceptible at the individual level; the overall economic loss is small in the grand scheme of things, but devastating for those it affects directly.


True enough.

The effects of manufacturing job loss were even greater in textiles than in automaking. OTOH, those low, low prices at the house of the smiley face.

Like most treaties, trade issues are highly nuanced with many, many interlocking parts. And the issues can never be reduced to a bumper sticker slogan,demagogues notwithstanding.

Read more: NAFTA's Winners And Losers https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/north-american-free-trade-agreement.asp#ixzz5IFP3N5OL (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/north-american-free-trade-agreement.asp#ixzz5IFP3N5OL)

You may find them highly nuanced, but the 1% and Occupy Wall Street folks understood it for what it is.Two or three minimum wage part time jobs for the OWS group with no benefits clarified it for them and of course the benefits to the 1% group are your specialty, no need to talk about the disparity between the two.

                              (http://pab58.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/174096-occupy-wall-street.jpg)
Title: G7 - Prepare For “The Most Important Week Of The Year”
Post by: azozeo on June 12, 2018, 04:55:58 PM
It’s supposed to be a week when many in Europe are on their way to, if not already at, their first summer vacation, while Wall Streeters are enjoying the lovely weather and debating whether to stay in the Hamptons a little bit longer. Well they won’t, because as Bank of America’s FX strategists preview, the coming week “could be the most important week of the year.”

Here’s why: from the next round in the escalating trade war in the post-shocking G7 world which has seen Trump and Trudeau engage in a “low brow” fight, to the historic Trump-Kim summit, to the all important US CPI report (the US economy is now on the verge of overheating) :icon_sunny:, to the UK parliament’s Brexit vote, to no less than three major central bank announcements from the ECB, BOJ and FOMC, of which the latter is expected to delivers its latest rate hike, the 7th of the cycle, while Draghi may announce the end of QE, from continued deterioration in Italian markets and the latest Italian bond auction especially following the latest “deposit flight” Target2 data, to Vladimir Putin meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the opening game of the World Cup soccer tournament potentially moving the oil-market, it will be a non-stop bonanza of one market-moving headline to the next.

And speaking of BofA’s preview, this is how the bank describes some of this week’s key catalysts:

    In our view, the ECB has decided to announce in June how QE will end for three reasons. The QE program will end for sure this year, because of technical constraints, so there is no reason to keep the uncertainty and give a false impression that extending QE to 2019 remains an option. Following the market turmoil from Italy last week, the ECB has strong incentives to make it clear that QE is about to end, also sending a message to the new government in Italy that they should not count on QE support if they want to loosen fiscal policies. And recent headlines on the ECB drop of BTP purchases in May makes the QE program politically more controversial. This suggests that the end of QE has nothing to do with the intended ECB monetary policy stance or the latest economic developments and outlook ahead. We would therefore expect the ECB to emphasize that rate hikes ahead will be strictly data dependent.

    The FOMC hike next week is a done deal in our view and already fully priced by markets. The focus likely will be on the tone. We believe the Fed has to acknowledge the very strong US data this year, but also risks ahead from weaker data abroad and trade protection. We see no reason for the Fed to rock the boat by changing their path for rate hikes ahead. They have plenty of time to revisit the dot plot in September. For now, we believe they should feel comfortable with what markets are pricing for this year.

    Trade war risks likely will also dominate headlines next week and are likely to be the main theme for this summer, in our view. Unless we get a surprising last minute deal in the G7 meeting this weekend, the US could be moving towards more trade protection against its allies. The rest of the world is likely to retaliate, although we have argued in a report this week that strategic thinking and basic economics call for avoiding excessive retaliation, which in turn could help avoid a global trade war.

    History will be made during the Trump-Kim summit on June 12, regardless of the outcome, just because it is taking place. The US has been trying to get agreements and commitments on a number of key issues in advance, with the summit providing the final seal of approval. In contrast, North Korea sees the summit as the first step for negotiations. It is very hard to know what will happen, but it could have profound global implications.

    The UK Parliament will vote on the EU withdrawal bill on June 12. This bill copies all existing EU legislation into UK law, ahead of actual Brexit. Theresa May will have to overturn a number of Lords amendments leading to a soft Brexit. The most difficult include the role of the Parliament to approve the final Brexit deal and the UK participation in the EU customs union after Brexit. We have argued that the latter is the best option for the UK for now, as there is no time for new trade deals with third countries. The Lords have asked for the UK to remain in a customs union with the EU and this has also been the Labour’s position. However, this has been a red line for the hard Brexiteers. Theresa May has been trying to find solutions around it, which have been rejected so far by both her own party and the EU. She may not have the votes next week to overturn the Lords’ amendment on this, which will be a defeat, increasing political uncertainty.

Those looking for a day by day breakdown of key events, you are in luck courtesy of Deutsche Bank:

Monday: A fairly quiet start to the week with the only releases of signifiance coming from Europe with the May Bank of France industrial sentiment print, and April industrial and manufacturing production, and trade data in the UK. Brexit Michal Barnier to discuss the state of talks. It’s worth noting that German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz is also set to discuss EU reform in a panel interview.

On the political scene, Bloomberg notes that investors get their first opportunity to pass judgment on what happened at the summit of leaders from the Group of Seven. The gathering ended with President Donald Trump broadsiding allies via Twitter, potentially causing fresh friction over trade; already in early trade the CAD is trading well lower.

* * *

Tuesday: All eyes will be on Singapore on Tuesday with President Trump set to meet North Korea’s Kim Jong Un in an historic summit. Trump last week predicted “great success” and said it’s possible he could sign an agreement with Kim to formally end the Korean War. Back in Washington, the government releases a monthly report on inflation that will be a key gauge of how hot — or not — the U.S. economy is getting.

In terms of data, the big highlight on Tuesday comes in the afternoon in the US with the May CPI report. The May NFIB small business optimism reading and May monthly budget statement will also be out in the US. Prior to this in Europe we’ll get the June ZEW survey in Germany and April/May employment data in the UK including average weekly earnings. In Japan the May PPI report is also due. Meanwhile, UK Parliament is due to hold a 12-hour session on Brexit legislation with various amendments due.

* * *

Wednesday: All eyes will be on the Fed on Wednesday when we get the outcome of the FOMC meeting, followed closely by Fed Chair Powell’s statement. Prior to that we get the May PPI report in the US, while in Europe we’ll get May CPI prints out of the UK (along with RPI and PPI) and Spain. April industrial production for the Euro area is also due. Also on Wednesday, Argentina’s central bank is expected to keep its benchmark rate 40 percent as it tries to stabilize the peso, while Italy’s auction of debt will draw scrutiny by handing investors another opportunity to react to the election of the populist government and its promises of hefty spending increases. The risks for the securities are already seen in the fact that the gap between Italian 10-year yields and those of Spain is at its widest since 2012. In the U.K., inflation data will help the Bank of England determine whether to raise interest rates.

* * *

Thursday: The focus switches to the ECB on Thursday with their latest monetary policy meeting due in the early afternoon, followed by President Draghi’s press conference.

Prior to that we are due to get final May CPI revisions in Germany and France, while in China May retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment is due. In the UK May retail sales data is due while in the US the main data release is also the May retail sales report. The May import price index reading is due too in the US along with weekly initial jobless claims and April business inventories data.

Vladimir Putin will meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the opening game of the World Cup soccer tournament. The encounter could influence the global oil market given it comes a week before a crucial OPEC meeting in Vienna, providing a last-minute chance for the two leaders to iron out a possible oil-output increase.

* * *

Friday: The final central bank meeting of the week will see the BoJ conclude their monetary policy meeting in the early morning. As Bloomberg notes, the BOJ is still buying vast quantities of Japanese government bonds and will have been encouraged to keep doing so by data showing its still far off its 2 percent inflation target and that the economy shrank in the first quarter.

Datawise, the final May CPI revisions for the Euro area will be made along with that for Italy. In the US we’ll get June empire manufacturing, May industrial production and the preliminary June University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

Finally, June 15 is the deadline for the U.S. to publish the final list of Chinese products subject to $50 billion in tariffs,which could be imposed shortly after. Also today, the Russian central bank sets interest rates with economists currently leaning toward no change in the 7.25 percent benchmark although there is a chance of a cut.

* * *

And just in case there is confusion about the importance of this week’s events, here is Deutsche Bank agreeing with BofA, and writing that there’s a plethora of potentially pivotal and market sensitive events worth keeping an eye on next week.

    The ECB, Fed and BoJ will all hold monetary policy meetings, while the unprecedented summit between President Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un is also on the cards. Data releases include US CPI and retail sales as well as final CPI reports throughout Europe and China, while Brexit developments shouldn’t be too far from the spotlight. The ECB might well be the most potentially interesting of the central bank meetings next week on Thursday after the coordinated signals sent by ECB speakers this week that the meeting is a live one for debating the end of QE.

Between BofA and DB, and everyone else, indeed the general feeling now is that we’ll get some sort of announcement, and while Draghi may refuse to discuss what he said, most economists continue to expect QE to end in December 2018 following a Q4 taper. It’s worth noting that next week’s meeting will also contain new economic projections from ECB officials so that’ll be worth watching. Warming up the ECB will be the Fed on Wednesday. The overwhelming consensus is for another 25bp hike, a view shared by our US economists.

As a reminder this is a meeting which includes a Powell press conference and also an updated summary of economic projections. The minutes to the last meeting didn’t necessarily indicate whether the one additional vote needed to move the median dot from three to four rate hikes this year would be forthcoming at next week’s meeting although data since then, and especially pricing pressure, has been slightly stronger than expected at the margin.

Meanwhile, BofA upgraded its forecast to 4 hikes this year from 3 previously, while the market is assigning a 43% probability of that happening; DB also expects 4 as does Goldman.

The final central bank meeting next week is the BoJ on Friday. No surprises are expected with policy expected to stay unchanged although some mixed comments on the state of the economy from Governor Kuroda in recent weeks could be a focus.

Away from central banks, the watershed geopolitical moment for politics next week is the planned meeting between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Tuesday in Singapore. It’s almost impossible to predict what may or may not happen in terms of a deal being struck, and balancing sanctions relief versus denuclearization, but its almost certain to be a highly sensitive event for markets either way. The first meeting kicks off at 9am local time (2am BST, 9pm EST).

* * *

Outside of central bank meetings and the Trump-Kim Jong Un showdown, the US CPI report on Tuesday for May is the big data highlight next week. As has been the case for the 31 months before this one (but of which only 17 have been correct), the consensus is for a +0.2% mom core print which would lift the annual rate one-tenth to +2.2% and the highest since February last year. The headline is expected to also come in at +0.2% mom which would push the annual rate up two-tenths to +2.7%.

In terms of other US data next week worth keeping an eye on, one day after the CPI report and just hours before the Fed decision we’ll get the May PPI report on Wednesday where current expectations are for a +0.3% mom headline reading and +0.2% mom core reading. On Thursday we’ll then get the May retail sales report with the consensus currently pegged at +0.4% mom for the headline, and +0.3% mom for the control group (which as a reminder goes into the GDP accounts). Finally on Friday, the May industrial production print will be closely watched (+0.3% mom expected) as well as the preliminary June University of Michigan consumer sentiment report.

In Europe outside of the obvious ECB meeting, the rest of the week will also be about inflation data. Final May CPI revisions are due to be made in Germany and France on Thursday and the Eurozone on Friday. The latter is not expected to show any change from the +1.1% yoy flash reading for the core. It’s worth noting that the rise in May resulted in our European economists revising up their 2018-year end forecast by one-tenth to +1.4% yoy. Meanwhile, the UK CPI/PPI/RPI report will also be out on Wednesday (our economists expect RPI to rise to +3.5% yoy and headline CPI to hold at +2.4% yoy) while CPI prints in Spain and Italy are due on Wednesday and Friday, respectively. Outside of that the June ZEW survey is due in Germany on Tuesday and May UK retail sales on Thursday.

Elsewhere, it’ll be difficult to keep Brexit headlines out of the spotlight next week too with UK Brexit Secretary David Davis due to meet EU Chief Negotiator Michal Barnier in Brussels on Monday, and then the UK Parliament is due to hold a 12- hour session on Brexit legislation including the various amendments proposed, on Tuesday.

A few other events to keep an eye on next week include the conclusion of the G7 meeting tomorrow in Quebec, the first round mayoral elections in Italy on Sunday which should test the new populist government support, German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz discussing EU reform in a panel interview on Monday, and EU Trade Chief Cecilia Malmstrom speaking on Friday in Brussels.

* * *

Finally, looking at just the US, here are the key events in table format:

Below we lay out Goldman preview of key US events, together with consensus forecasts: according to the vampire squid, the key economic releases this week are the CPI report on Tuesday and retail sales on Thursday. In addition, the June FOMC statement will be released on Wednesday at 2:00 PM EDT, followed by Chairman Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM.

Monday, June 11

    There are no major economic data releases.

Tuesday, June 12

    06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism, May (consensus 105.0, last 104.8)
    08:30 AM CPI (mom), May (GS +0.18%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); Core CPI (mom), May (GS +0.19%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%); CPI (yoy), May (GS +2.72%, consensus +2.8%, last +2.5%); Core CPI (yoy), May (GS +2.24%, consensus +2.2%, last +2.1%): We estimate a 0.19% increase in May core CPI (mom sa), which would boost the year-over-year rate by one tenth to 2.2%. We view the risks to the year-over-year rate as skewed to the upside (i.e. 2.3% is more likely than 2.1%). Our forecast reflects a boost in the recreation category from the Amazon Prime price increase, as well as a rebound in airfares and second-derivative improvement in the new and used cars category. We also expect firm increases in owner’s equivalent rent and medical services. We look for a 0.18% increase in headline CPI, reflecting modest expected inflation in the food and energy categories.
    02:00 PM Monthly budget statement, May (consensus -$114.5bn, last -$214.3bn)

Wednesday, June 13

    08:30 AM PPI final demand, May (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%); PPI ex-food and energy, May (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, May (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%): We estimate a 0.3% increase in headline PPI in May, reflecting firmer core prices, as well as higher food and energy prices. We expect a 0.2% increase in the core PPI and the PPI ex-food, energy, and trade services categories. In the April report, the producer price index was slightly softer than expected, reflecting weaker food prices but relatively firm upstream prices.
    2:00 PM FOMC statement, June 12-13 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, we expect the FOMC to raise the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the June meeting. In the post-meeting statement, we think the committee is likely to retain the upbeat tone of recent meetings, with an acknowledgement of lower unemployment and a hawkish rewording of the forward guidance. In the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), we look for: (1) unchanged GDP growth projections, (2) a higher median headline inflation projection for 2018, unchanged core projections, and lower unemployment rate projections in 2018-20, and (3) a pull-forward of rate hike projections so that the median dot for the funds rate to show four rate hikes in 2018 (up from 3 projected in March), three hikes in 2019, and one hike in 2020.

Thursday, June 14

    08:30 AM Retail sales, May (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.2%); Retail sales ex-auto, May (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.3%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, May (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.3%); Core retail sales, May (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%): We estimate core retail sales (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials) rose at a brisk 0.4% pace in May, reflecting solid chain store sales results that continue to receive a boost from tax cuts. Warm weather is also expected to boost sales in the building equipment category. Based on a pullback in auto SAAR but a seasonally adjusted rise in gasoline prices, we estimate a 0.4% and 0.5% respective increases in the headline and ex-auto measures.
    08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 9 (GS 225k, consensus 222k, last 222k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 2 (consensus 1,734k, last 1,741k); We estimate initial jobless claims rose by 3k to 225k in the week ending June 9. Claims have trended slightly higher in recent weeks, and we expect another modest increase reflecting filings related to the Memorial Day holiday in the prior period. Consensus expects continuing claims—the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs—to fall back 7k to 1,734k.
    08:30 AM Import price index, May (consensus +0.5%, last +0.3%)
    10:00 AM Business inventories, April (consensus +0.3%, last flat)

Friday, June 15

    08:30 AM Empire manufacturing survey, June (consensus +18.5, last +20.1)
    09:15 AM Industrial production, May (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.7%); Manufacturing production, May (GS -0.2%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.5%); Capacity utilization, May (GS +78.0%, consensus +78.1%, last +78.0%): We estimate industrial production rose 0.2% in May, as the mining category likely rose further and the utilities category was mixed. We expect manufacturing production declined, driven largely by weak auto manufacturing. We estimate capacity utilization held steady at +78.0%.
    10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, June preliminary (GS 98.6, consensus 98.5, last 98.0): We estimate the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index edged 0.6pt higher in the preliminary estimate for June, as a moderate increase in the stock market likely offset a small decline in high-frequency consumer confidence measures. The report’s measure of 5- to 10-year inflation expectations remained at 2.5% in May, near the middle of its 12-month range.

Source: BofA, DB, Goldman, Bloomberg
Title: Re: The G7 thread
Post by: Surly1 on June 12, 2018, 05:40:13 PM
True enough.

The effects of manufacturing job loss were even greater in textiles than in automaking. OTOH, those low, low prices at the house of the smiley face.

Like most treaties, trade issues are highly nuanced with many, many interlocking parts. And the issues can never be reduced to a bumper sticker slogan,demagogues notwithstanding.

You may find them highly nuanced, but the 1% and Occupy Wall Street folks understood it for what it is.Two or three minimum wage part time jobs for the OWS group with no benefits clarified it for them and of course the benefits to the 1% group are your specialty, no need to talk about the disparity between the two.

(http://pab58.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/174096-occupy-wall-street.jpg)

Did you even look at the article? I was trying to have an evidence-based discussion.

I was really anti-NAFTA for the most part of its existence. And I certainly was during my own involvement with Occupy. I am still uncertain about its utility. I've had people whose opinions I respect argue with me about my position, which led me to re-examine it.

I don't purport to understand NAFTA and its repercussions. All I can say with certainty is that there are dozens, maybe hundreds of interlocking parts involved. There are wins and losses. I also know that coincidence is not causation. Have manufacturing jobs in the US gone in the shitter because of NAFTA or because of automation? I think the answer is "yes."

There is danger in ripping up treaties, as with the Iran treaty. The current junta has demonstrated its contempt for traditional statecraft. So far, his tendency to "go with his gut" has resulted in a couple of days of changed headlines. What will the long terms effects be? Who knows.

As for me, I prefer my leaders without tantrums.
Title: Re: The G7 thread
Post by: g on June 12, 2018, 06:06:01 PM
Quote
As to me, I prefer my leaders without tantrums.

Exactly Surly as to my point.

Your posting is about your intense dislike of Trump and not your looking at NAFTA in a new objective manner.

It was not a free trade agreement as you well know.

It was the preying of the poverty and misery of South America and others and their below sustenance wages by the corporate pigs at the expense of the American worker and the well being of our entire national economy.

Your arguments are merely hate Trump rants IMO, no matter what silliness you find on the net to try and justify them as objective analysis.

That outrageous bull shit article you posted about Trump in secret planning to destroy the west is further evidence of your postings being clouded and blinded by your hatred of a political opponent rather than any reasonable data.

There are more than enough traits about Donald Trump to dislike him, I will grant you that, but you sir are in a fit of rage and hatred lasting well over a year now, and your reason and objectivity are being tainted by it.   

Ross Perot explained to us what NAFTA really was and foretold it's result precisely.
Title: Re: The G7 thread
Post by: Agent Graves on June 12, 2018, 07:53:31 PM
Golden Oxen, as a libertarian you are supposed to support free market and free trade. If you believe what Trump says about tariffs being unfair to the US, you might also believe the NK summit is not just a disarming trick, as the twitter threats reveal. If you believe that, you might believe him posting on 4chan as 'q anon', that he is getting  his ducks in a row to arrest half of DC, while he willingly appoints the very worst. His son in law even looks just like Damien the Antichrist from The Omen  ahahaha!!! Meanwhile the left will go along with the msm on the skripals and crimea as long as it links back in a roundabout way to Trump.

No more war games over north korea? Thats fine we dont really need any more practice. The war party baits both sides.