Doomstead Diner Menu => Doomsteading => Topic started by: Guest on September 12, 2018, 02:05:36 AM

Title: The Doom Loop
Post by: Guest on September 12, 2018, 02:05:36 AM


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Published on Dark Green Mountain Project on August 26, 2018






Discuss this article at the Doomsteading Table inside the Diner



 



Just a time sensitive quicky today  A few articles showed up that were worth reading… if only to show how far we have gotten into The Doom Loop.



Its chilly out there this morning. Sort of a premature fall. Its sort of nice after that blistering heat wave. There lies the problem. The sigh of relief and subconscious desire for things to return to normal. A time to forget. A return to slumber. To apathy.



Its chilly because smoke from the west coast made it all the way to the east coast, a rather large continent away.



… But before I get there. A special hello and welcome to anyone trickling in from Peak Oil News  https://peakoil.com/. They posted my last article. People seem to like my rants more than my survival advice. I noticed my article was shoe horned in between Ugo Bardi at Cassandra’s Legacy and John Michael Greer. That was flattering. I guess I am now sitting at the grown ups table.



The real reason for this article was just to re-post another article which was definitely the best read of the month. -When I woke up this week, the sun was blocked out by smoke.



https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-08-22/when-i-woke-up-this-week-the-sun-was-blocked-out-by-smoke/



Now, both MrsC5 and myself have been much more depressed than usual, this summer. I realize it had a lot to do with the heat. A weakened body leads to a weakened mind. Less resilience. No used getting into that here. But alot of where our minds were going to, is just how awful humans are. The shear, Evily Evil Evilness of 7.65 billion people and growing, being evil. The planet used to be able to absorb our evil. Not any more. Ugo Bardi pointed out a quote by Gandhi,



“Earth provides enough to satisfy every man’s needs, but not every man’s greed.”



Ugo then points out the problem with this thinking is that, back when Gandhi said this, the world only had 2.5 billion people in it. That was before we entered the doom loop.



Its not the super villain, Jeffrey Dahmer, Trump, type of evil that gets to me. Its the banality of human evil. The mom and pop, middle class, soccer mom evil. The little compromises and purchases and shortcuts and genocides happening somewhere else and intentional blindness. Little evils… with 2% compounding interest.  That is the real evil. We don’t see it because we don’t want to see it, and we tell ourselves little narratives to justify why we are not really evil. Its other people. Where the story really picks up though is when supper villain meets soccer mom.



Which leads to the number two read. -Why is it so easy to deceive people?



https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2018/08/why-is-it-so-easy-to-deceive-people.html



( My answer. Because they want to be deceived to avoid all that uncomfortable introspection. He shows you the how. I tell you the why )



The good news is that all that heat and now smoke has been shaking more of the soccer mom evil types of people. The subject of hothouse earth, feedback doom loops, finally went mainstream media news over the last few months.



Soooo. Lets do a subject jump. Another banality of evil… with two percent compounding interest…



Preppers have been getting on my nerves lately. Don’t get me wrong. People have been calling me “Super Prepper” lately. Its the weird obsessive compulsive fantasies that they secretly hope for to justify their banal evilyness… like “Martial Law is coming” or “Collapse is coming”. Like man made climate chaos, they have trouble seeing that it is already here and they just got used to it. Its just not nearly as exiting as the movies.



The more paranoia inclined, less mentally stable, drone on and on about secret FEMA camps.   FEMA camps are actually real. They are called “PRISONS”. And they are generally filled with poor people. Cough…



So, here is your next very insightful read. -Battle Field America



https://www.rutherford.org/publications_resources/john_whiteheads_commentary/battlefield_america_the_ongoing_war_on_the_american_people



Now, I live in cana’duh. I wont even visit the States anymore. Won’t even do a plane change there. I’m done with them. Far too Sketch.



But it has been on my mind since seeing the Mounties got their assault rifles. Now they have high capacity magazines proudly on display on their ever increasing tactical vests. Disgusting. I recognize an occupational army/ organized crime group, when I see one. I don’t want to hear about the dangerous job they do. Statistically, its a far safer job than any of the jobs I have done. You are far more likely to die in any labor related job. Most cop deaths are from driving accidents, health or suicides. But its the cult like brainwashing and the shear banality of evil that makes this particularly dangerous. As I age, its the groomed, fresh, pimply faces behind all that tactical gear that spires my mind towards hitler youth posters.



Soooo…. if you really want to be scared about something, mix that last article with this article…



https://www.bellingcat.com/news/americas/2018/08/17/fascist-activists-spent-last-year-trying-win-police/



The depressing thing is that I have always known that was coming since my pre teen years. I’m not surprised. Its matching my timeline. Sucks to be right all the time. There is no mystery to life anymore.



On a personal note, I saw this future in a fever dream. In it, I was an old man, beyond warrior years to resist. I was forced to serve these fuckers. It stuck with me. With that said, Metalica comes to DJ-C5s mind.






 



For everyone’s information, if you ever wonder what I was going to do with the donations from this page and how I would use it for future experiments, You Readers gave enough to purchase this small motor.



donation



And this small upgrade that comes from Australia. Pull the pins and it works like a regular bike again, albeit a much heavier bike.



donation 2



1 liter should get 100 kms. That is the point. It gives new meaning to the idea of being a 1% motorcycle club



Here is the reasoning. Our nearest grocery store is about 50Km away. That means a liter should get us there and back. Gas is about 1.25$ a liter at the moment. So we can do a supply run for 1.25. As the economy breaks down and people can no longer afford the costs associated with a vehicle, we are trying to figure out if this will be helpful. And if gas supplies are promptly shut off, a 20ltr gas can from my fuel storage, might provide 20 supply trips into town…. or 20 commutes to a low paying job.



I will do a full article once it has had some hard work under its belt to judge whether it is practical for actual work. I have to work it hard for months before giving my thoughts on it. I set the rest of the bike up for grocery\cargo hauling. I call this rear set up “The poor mans long tail”. That is part of what this is about. The engine and upgraded parts cost less than 300$ canadian. This will be a Part Two of this article from South America.



https://darkgreenmountainsurvivalresearchcentre.wordpress.com/2017/05/07/c5-survival-advice-part-4-on-motorised-bicycles-from-south-america/



Now, this is MrsC5’s experiment of the year. She got her HEMP growing license this year.



hemp



I was not impressed with this idea. See the article on militarized police. My experience with cops… is incompetence (I am being very generous there. I see the world bottom up) . To avoid me or my dog getting shot because “I was resisting” or they “Felt their life was in danger”, first job of the year had me dangerously climbing on the roof of the barn and painting the permit number in REALLY BIG FUCKING LETTERS and then hanging a copy on the door. By the way, you would have to smoke a telephone pole of that to get high.



Speaking of which, Canada has now ended pot prohibition. You can now buy it at the government liquor store. Thank gods that evily evil clusterfuck is finally over. Its one of the only reasons that could get me to stand to sing Oh Canada. Still, don’t be fooled. As I predicted, It was not legalized. It was corporatized. This does nothing to help poor, small, mom and pop farmers in rural communities. The profits go to the 1% instead of 1% motorcycle gangs. That”s all.



So, that was a small test plot for MrsC5 to experiment with fiber. I lost my reticence once I saw the chickens go parahna over those fat filled seeds. I may have finally found an easy to grow source of chicken feed. Now I just have to figure out a how to harvest it.



You can also see we screwed up the test plot. It grew so successfully that it was choking itself out. We have to hand cast much  lighter so they have less competition. We now have to harvest this week because the chickens, in feeding frenzy mode, are getting over the fence to pull down the stalks to get to the seeds. Its all part of getting over the learning curve.



Speaking of which, we finally had some corn success… using the Three Sisters method. Corn, beans and squash together. (Beans grow up the corn. Corn moderates temperature by providing shade. Squash shades out weeds and slows soil moisture evaporation)



3 sis



We put it where the pigs used to be. It needed the fertilizer. What that means is, SHTF, if you don’t have animals for fertilizer, forget all about corn. Its a heavy feeder.



Further thoughts on the disaster of this years weather. All plants, wild or planted, are looking rough this year. New diseases have swept through that we haven’t had to deal with before. Stressed plants are more susceptible to disease. Healthy plant would be able to fight those infections off. That is the short form. There were secondary knock off, unanticipated problems as well. We got very few sour cherries this year and lost them all. The birds took them because they were starving. The wild service berry trees didn’t produce and that is the heavier fruit they would prefer. I also cant believe I would ever complain about the lack of bugs here. But less bugs means less pollination and less birds. There was alot of strange birds I hadn’t seen before, here in the spring. They aint here now.



One last photo. We finally got the windmill base cemented in a couple of days ago. Not much to see but I will fill in the blanks.



windapult



Its for the base of what I am calling a Windapult until I come up with a better name. From the mind of C5. The future tower should go up into place like a catapult. There will be a counter weight. I want me to be able to take the entire windmill down in a storm, by hand, without a tractor or mechanical assistance. We have wicked winds here. I have a Friend that lost his during a hurricane.  Another, where this blades just shattered when it spun apart. An ice storm is also a destroyer of wind engines because the blades go off balance and destroy internal parts. Plus, I want to be able to easily take the turbine down  for maintenance or repair. I’l ad a second base to act as a catchers mit so if the tower lines break in a storm and it comes down, that the turbine wont smash on the ground. As a bonus, the tower parts are from recycled material since we cant afford a commercial made tower. I was given an impossible task… but that is what I do. It’s all I do.



Mythos, and someone new to the crew, I will just call Jesus, came over to help me mix concrete by hand for the first time. It was quality boy time… with beer. Practical social male bonding. We work well as a team and I have sort of finally founds a group of equals. I’ll continue the man party next week, over at Mythos place because he needs help with mixing large quantities of Cob mix (Article to follow) and the week after that over at Jesus’s  Mini home build.(He looks nothing like jesus)



I bring this up because Jesus recounted a story of him talking with the boys at work in the warehouse where he lifts heavy objects. When asked what he was doing this weekend, he said he was exited about helping on a wind tower build because he had no experience in that and wanted to learn. On Que, the corn poned  worker of the group ranted, “What. Why are you doing that hippy shit”.



And those words stuck in both myself and MrsC5. It keeps rolling around in our heads. A psychic assault. A reminder of those 4 article I re-posted above.



The shear banality of evil.



I don’t talk about it on this blog, but there is a reason MrsC5 and myself are armed to the fucking tits. It’s because we know, when we do the right actions and adaptations, others that have not will project their weakness outward and that banal, shear Evily Evil Evilness will , instinctively, want… Need…. to stomp it out.



Lets end this with one last practical prepping update. My living fence is doing very well. https://darkgreenmountainsurvivalresearchcentre.wordpress.com/2018/04/18/c5-says-build-me-a-wall-permaculture-style/     Root taking is at least a 95% success rate. I did learn some stuff though. I had some failures in other parts of the property. The big mistake was the smaller cuttings I put in. They grew just fine. Then the deer said, “Thanks for the fresh browsing greens”. Deer keep forests at bay by eating fresh shoots more than grass. We have plenty of self seeded fruit trees around the property that may be decades old but never get past knee high. Some day I will put fences around them so they can get past browsing height. Same goes with the willow. We learned that when we do season two of willow planting, all willow spikes must be taller than deer head browsing height. Lesson learned for next springs continuation of the job to surround the house and get old watching my palisade grow.



willow growth



So much for this being a quick article. I’ve been at this all day. I better get out there and do something. I think I will begin harvesting the hemp seeds before the chickens get it all.



If all of this gets you down, tomorrow we have to do this with one of our hens that we noticed was on the edge of death and needed rescue. BTW, 12 chicks born this year. Culling to follow.






If you would like to give a Tip for writing services rendered or to support the cause, go to the top of the page and hit, “Giving just the Tip”.  All “Tips” go towards material costs for future experiments.


Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: RE on September 12, 2018, 02:31:34 AM
Actually, the type of device you appear to be describing with a counterweight is a Trebuchet, not a Catapult.  I built one with my students to fire off Water Balloons in the gym parking lot at the carz.  :icon_mrgreen:  Sadly  :( I can't locate the video.  So here is a real Trebuchet in action launching a car, a piano and an incendiary drum.

http://www.youtube.com/v/JQLYHt-DM0Q

How about "Winduchet" for a name?

RE
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Surly1 on September 12, 2018, 03:32:05 AM
Actually, the type of device you appear to be describing with a counterweight is a Trebuchet, not a Catapult.  I built one with my students to fire off Water Balloons in the gym parking lot at the carz.  :icon_mrgreen:  Sadly  :( I can't locate the video.  So here is a real Trebuchet in action launching a car, a piano and an incendiary drum.

http://www.youtube.com/v/JQLYHt-DM0Q

How about "Winduchet" for a name?

RE

Some very Monty Python shit right here.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: cernunnos5 on September 12, 2018, 05:26:22 AM
Yes. I knew it was a trebuchet but I was dumbing  it down.... since saying trebuchet to a few people and seeing them with that blank look.

But I will defiantly use this one in my "C5 builds a wind tower"    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQ8jGqdE2iw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQ8jGqdE2iw)

I usually save that one for any time I mention the American Militia Movement.   "Run Away!"
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Eddie on September 12, 2018, 06:48:28 AM
I was wondering if you are grounding that base. It might be overkill, since you plan to lower the turbine in storms, but it's an easy thing to do before you pour the concrete. Could still be done anyway.

I'd ask David if they ground their towers. If he happens to read this, I hope he can talk about that, and about lightning arrestors.

I have looked at grounding solar arrays. There is some disagreement on exactly how to do this, but it's something you do have to do.

 I have a giant transmission line in my back yard, and was considering the dangers of a fallen line on an array if i ever built one in the easement (which probably isn't allowed anyway). Different subject, but a good ground might save an expensive turbine in certain circumstances.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Eddie on September 12, 2018, 07:00:45 AM
Why yew doin' that hippy shit, bro? Git a job in a growth industry. They're payin' good in Mordor.

(http://onilog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tar-sand.jpg)
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: RE on September 12, 2018, 07:35:26 AM
Yes. I knew it was a trebuchet but I was dumbing  it down.... since saying trebuchet to a few people and seeing them with that blank look.

But I will defiantly use this one in my "C5 builds a wind tower"    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQ8jGqdE2iw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQ8jGqdE2iw)

I usually save that one for any time I mention the American Militia Movement.   "Run Away!"

You don't have to Dumb Down Doom for Diners.  We are well educated Doomers!  Like Doc Holiday and Johnny Ringo, we even Do Doom in Latin. :icon_mrgreen:

Nisi Quantum Potes

http://www.youtube.com/v/CwEIkXMfL1E

RE
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Eddie on September 12, 2018, 07:40:42 AM
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT9X4Ba5TbRyrWaLm5ybyX3T_KdVp-O5b-G0X9P36l2EkMbr5krWQ)
Canadian armed to the teeth.

(Just kiddin'.... ;D. Obviously EVERYBODY here is armed to the teeth.....and I know your preps are the real and effective variety. Mine too, although I haven't written much about that lately.)

I have a pair of those Mountie dress gloves in the saddlebags of my motorcycle, btw. Pretty good for wind, but they aren't lined. Hard to find the gauntlet style anymore.

I not only abhor cold water, I don't much like cold wind up my sleeves, either.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Eddie on September 12, 2018, 07:46:21 AM
Yes. I knew it was a trebuchet but I was dumbing  it down.... since saying trebuchet to a few people and seeing them with that blank look.

But I will defiantly use this one in my "C5 builds a wind tower"    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQ8jGqdE2iw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQ8jGqdE2iw)

I usually save that one for any time I mention the American Militia Movement.   "Run Away!"

You don't have to Dumb Down Doom for Diners.  We are well educated Doomers!  Like Doc Holiday and Johnny Ringo, we even Do Doom in Latin. :icon_mrgreen:

Nisi Quantum Potes

http://www.youtube.com/v/CwEIkXMfL1E

RE

Semper ubi sub ubi
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: RE on September 12, 2018, 07:54:28 AM
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT9X4Ba5TbRyrWaLm5ybyX3T_KdVp-O5b-G0X9P36l2EkMbr5krWQ)
Canadian armed to the teeth.

(Just kiddin'.... ;D. Obviously EVERYBODY here is armed to the teeth.....and I know your preps are the real and effective variety. Mine too, although I haven't written much about that lately.)

I have a pair of those Mountie dress gloves in the saddlebags of my motorcycle, btw. Pretty good for wind, but they aren't lined. Hard to find the gauntlet style anymore.

I not only abhor cold water, I don't much like cold wind up my sleeves, either.

I forgot to show you my Red Fox Fur Musher's Mittens when you were here.  :(  Make those Mounty Gauntlets look like driving gloves. The ones below are Coyote Fur.  On mine they are bigger, come all the way up to the elbow.  I also have a pair in Rabbit Fur that match my Rabbit Fur hat.  :icon_sunny:  I did a lot of privates to get those two sets of gloves.  In one of my videos I am wearing them, you have to search it down though.

(http://www.glacierwear.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/thumbnail/960x/17f82f742ffe127f42dca9de82fb58b1/1/-/1-img_8697.jpg)

RE
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Eddie on September 12, 2018, 07:57:37 AM
Nice!

You should have brought them in the RV, obviously.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: RE on September 12, 2018, 08:10:22 AM
Nice!

You should have brought them in the RV, obviously.

I wanna get a pair of matching Mukluks for the Rabbit Fur Hat & Mittens, but I don't see that trapper anymore and the furrier wants $600 for them in rabbit.  Forget the Red Fox, no furrier carries it here, you only can get it if you know a trapper.

RE
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Surly1 on September 12, 2018, 09:42:29 AM
Yes. I knew it was a trebuchet but I was dumbing  it down.... since saying trebuchet to a few people and seeing them with that blank look.

But I will defiantly use this one in my "C5 builds a wind tower"    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQ8jGqdE2iw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQ8jGqdE2iw)

I usually save that one for any time I mention the American Militia Movement.   "Run Away!"

You don't have to Dumb Down Doom for Diners.  We are well educated Doomers!  Like Doc Holiday and Johnny Ringo, we even Do Doom in Latin. :icon_mrgreen:

Nisi Quantum Potes

http://www.youtube.com/v/CwEIkXMfL1E

RE

Semper ubi sub ubi

Illegitimi non carborundum.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Eddie on September 12, 2018, 10:52:58 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_Rt7QlVIAA2_4q.jpg)
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Eddie on September 12, 2018, 10:57:45 AM
Julius Caesar walks into a bar.

"Bartender! Give me a martinus!"

"Sorry sir", replies the bartender. "Do you mean you want a martini?"

"If I'd wanted a double, I'd have ordered one."
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Surly1 on September 12, 2018, 12:09:42 PM
Julius Caesar walks into a bar.

"Bartender! Give me a martinus!"

"Sorry sir", replies the bartender. "Do you mean you want a martini?"

"If I'd wanted a double, I'd have ordered one."

Now that there's funny.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: cernunnos5 on October 06, 2018, 07:23:55 PM
OK. That was a hell of alot more work than anticipated. I know you guys were waiting for the Windapult.

Finally, here it is    https://darkgreenmountainsurvivalresearchcentre.wordpress.com/2018/10/07/c5-builds-a-category-5-hurricane-resistant-wind-tower-the-windapult/
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Eddie on October 06, 2018, 07:48:40 PM
Nice job!  Well done.

Lots of good observations about living off batteries, too. For somebody who lives as far south as I do, the angle of your solar array looks really radically different than what I'm used to...LOL


Lots of progress being made on your place. Congratulations!

Talk about the wiring and the diodes (I assume there are diodes?) and what kind of dump load you're going to use.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: cernunnos5 on October 06, 2018, 08:42:25 PM
Nice job!  Well done.

Lots of good observations about living off batteries, too. For somebody who lives as far south as I do, the angle of your solar array looks really radically different than what I'm used to...LOL


Lots of progress being made on your place. Congratulations!

Talk about the wiring and the diodes (I assume there are diodes?) and what kind of dump load you're going to use.

The Whatza whatza? Remember, I am the electronically challenged guy. I have to hire someone for that. Im just the guy who you give some rusty nails, 50$, some scrap metal and a tube of KY jelly and say, build me a space station. Yah, I can do it... but you might have to adjust your expectations.

FWI....I'm waiting for how long it takes to hear a reference to my youtube clip and the Patterson film. I was clearly the actual guy in the bigfoot jacket. There was beer involved, some fetish girls, and some memories I am trying to blank out.... big shoes to fill..... ;)
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: RE on October 06, 2018, 08:50:22 PM
I'm sure DB or KD can make a good guess on how it is probably wired up.

RE
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Nearingsfault on October 06, 2018, 10:12:58 PM
Nice job!  Well done.

Lots of good observations about living off batteries, too. For somebody who lives as far south as I do, the angle of your solar array looks really radically different than what I'm used to...LOL


Lots of progress being made on your place. Congratulations!

Talk about the wiring and the diodes (I assume there are diodes?) and what kind of dump load you're going to use.

The Whatza whatza? Remember, I am the electronically challenged guy. I have to hire someone for that. Im just the guy who you give some rusty nails, 50$, some scrap metal and a tube of KY jelly and say, build me a space station. Yah, I can do it... but you might have to adjust your expectations.

FWI....I'm waiting for how long it takes to hear a reference to my youtube clip and the Patterson film. I was clearly the actual guy in the bigfoot jacket. There was beer involved, some fetish girls, and some memories I am trying to blank out.... big shoes to fill..... ;)
I would need a make and model on the turbine and the controller if you already have one then distance from top of tower to batteries.  I'm looking on my phone so can't make out the turbine details. You had mentioned before it was a whisper 200 I think... Assuming that is the case its a 1kW 3 phase unit with the diodes and heat sink built into the controller it usually ships with a controller like the one in the picture. The controller is now made in pakistan and the quality sucks. 2 controllers this year DOA and hard to get spares. On top of the controller you would need 3 breakers for overload protection rated for ac, installed near the turbine, a 3 phase ac rated lightning arrestor installed at the turbine(not mandatory but suggested) and if it was code approved a brake switch at the turbine(its just a 3 way switch that shorts out the turbine and makes it stop). The manual is pretty good for wire gauge recommendations and wiring diagrams...
Cheers, and nice build!
Title: Windapult: The Hurricane Resistant Wind Tower
Post by: Guest on October 07, 2018, 04:35:35 AM


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Published on Dark Green Mountain Project & Doomstead Diner on October 7, 2018






Discuss this article at the Doomsteading Table Inside the Diner




C5 Builds A Category-5 Hurricane Resistant Wind Tower-The Windapult






a storm 2



With your host, Category5.



 



” For most people, adapting to climate change isn’t the result of a long-term plan. It’s done in rush: a buzzing text message, an evacuation warning as the rain starts to fall, the National Guard humvee rolling up to your door, and the realization that you must leave home, if you can. “


 


Eric Holthaus


 



This is a long and epic read today. Sit down and pore yourself a glass. It should make up for and explain my lack of presence lately.



I’m starting to write this today, just as the remnants of Hurricane Florence finally rambled its way all the way to Dark Green Mountain in Nova Scotia. It’s the Fall equinox this eve but will be much later before you read this. Nothing dramatic to report here as the storm has already shot its load, and like a selfish lover, once it has caught it’s breath, will put on it’s pants and leave without much fanfare. (Hold on, This is the ghostly apparition of C5 coming to you from the future. The storm remnants came back less than a week later to dump a bunch more water and if I read the signs right, we should get more of it later in the week. Ah, The returning 2AM booty call)



I had been pushing hard to get to this moment, worried that a deluge and winds would topple all my work before I could get it all held up and strapped down. Its been a mentally and physically exhausting experience. More mentally exhausting. Every step of the job confronted me with an unforeseen problem, usually impossible to fix and requiring me to pull off a C5 miracle, every single fucking day.  I generally say, I can only perform one miracle or impossible task a month. But no rest between miracles for C5 this round. This is the nature of building, stream of consciousness, with salvaged materials and limited resources… at the end of the Empire, in early stage Economic, Environmental and Energy collapse. Hold that thought.



 



I noticed by the stats that people kept coming to check in with this blog, assuming that the latest disaster would force my pen and that I would have something to say about the matter. I felt, at this point, it was sort of redundant. Plus, I was rather busy. Instead, I decided to Show instead of just Talk.



That, and people saw the start of the tower in the previous article and wanted to know more. Woe there, folks. I could write or I could build. I chose to build.



windapult



Maybe, some of you have heard the colloquialism, “Women and cats rule the world… and Men and dogs should just get used to it”. That is far too uncomfortably true for any of us manly men to admit publicly. MrsC5 hit me with a lefty uppercut this year that I didn’t see coming. As Mike Tyson explained, “Everyone has a plan until they get hit in the face”. I had a hearty plan for how this year was going to work out… but it didn’t include this.



Now. I am pretty good at looking her straight in the eye, with my best Han Solo smirk and saying, “O.K. Princess. Did your daddy not spank you enough?”. But when she said she wanted the wind tower put up this year….



I dont remember who said, “War is rarely fighting. It’s moving troops around to convince the other guy that any fight would be too costly”. I realized that if I did not do this, I would probably end up doing dishes, vacuuming and laundry.






I’m still good. She doesn’t realize I out maneuvered her (until she reads this). Any time she complains about the slovenly nature of maleness, I will simply point to the monstrosity on the front lawn that I wrestled from  the gods, with a good amount of being punched in the face, to be wrenched from non existence out of the tentacles of Cthulhu, like an anarchist Prometheus.



If I was going to be conscripted into this job, I had a few requirements of what the end result would be. #1- It needed to be able to be raised by one person alone, without a tractor or mechanical assistance. #2- It needed to be able to survive a Hurricane or Bomb Cyclone. #3- It needed to be able to be taken down for maintenance or repair and most importantly, It needed to be able to be taken down right in the middle of a storm if things get too much and it had to be able to be done by one person without mechanical assistance.  No biggy. I can pull that off….. cough.



I decided the materials I already had on hand would allow me to base this on a Medieval Trebuchet.  When telling people what I was up to, I would say trebuchet and they would blank. That glazed over stare and nod that says, I am listening to you but have no idea what that nut bar C5 is talking about. So I dummed it down a bit and said catapult. I was, basically,  building a “Wind-apult”. Catchy name… but technically, it is not a catapult. Not anything like it. Oh well. I’m stuck with it cause I cant come up with a catchy name that has trebuchet in it.



I will save my thoughts on wind power, till further down the article, some of which you have heard me say before in previous articles. But a word to the wise…



C5 Rule Of Survival- Any essential project will cost twice as much and take three times as long



wind 1



When I got to this next point, after weeks of misfitted parts, cursing, swearing and several periods of complete despair, I called Mrs C5 outside to be there when the hinge point either succeeded or crumbled into bent metal and broken concrete.



After several years of just staring at materials, last minute modifications, and completely Micky Moused materials, the moment that hinge worked, and I felt the strength, realizing it was three times as strong as I had hoped, I said to MrsC5, “Just so you know, there will be absolutely no living with me tonight”. I was so fucking awesome that even I would hate me and not want to be in the same room with me.



That high was good because their was a world of fuck ups to come.



wind 2



Now, finding an appropriate counterweight was really working my nads.  After a week of trying to fit several heavy objects in from my scrap collection, I finally realized  I could reshape some old duct pipe in there and fill it with concrete. By complete and utter fluke… it turned out to be close to the right weight. No, really. It surprised the hell out of me. But none of this went smoothly. I pored the counterweight then let it set for a week in its upright position



wind 3



Notice the ominous clouds building in the back ground. I had made my goal to get this far before the hurricane…stared at it and then said, “Ah, Hell. Fuck, No. Those cables wont do if a meter of rains fall, turning the earth to slurry and winds rocking cement back and forth to be ripped out of the ground. Cables wont do. I want any sway to be met, not just by pull, but also push. That brought me here. I’m not too humble to say, once the storm passed, that looks way too cool in a Transformer, Star Wars Imperial Walker, Mechano Set, sort of way



wind 4



As we got to the final cable anchors, I tweaked the balance weight and saw it go up and down with ease…..



…Well, a photo just wouldn’t do.



It was time to re invent my YouTube image.






Now to wire it all in. That is turning out to be the priciest part. Costs! Now, THAT is the part I really want to talk about. There is no getting around that. All of this is pricey…. Even with me doing all the fabrication work  and using recycled, repurposed metal.



A good percentage of our culture and growing, can not come up with 1000$ to to meet an emergency car repair or medical expense. I have been one of you. Most are so far in debt that any further debt into “Adaptations” is not just a pipe dream but is possibly an existential threat. So I try to keep in mind at all times, here at DGM, that just because I can do this doesn’t mean everyone can… if they just try harder. That window has closed. We know live in the Age Of Consequence. Collapse is not a theoretical future event. Its here and will simply play out as it will in accordance with the laws of physics, math and biology. Throw in some Chaos Theory and at least you can say it is going to be the most interesting period of human history.



The metal was CHEAP, CHEAP, CHEAP. I have truly learned to LOVE our couple of metal recycling yards within an hour of where we live. It was just labor and travel intensive, not always finding what we needed, figuring out work arounds, and being surprised by incredible random finds. I recall an online prepper friend once saying, “If you control a scrap yard and a Value Village (a large second hand store), you are a king during the apocalypse”. How true. All for metal cost alone. Any aluminum is really expensive though. If this is outside your social world, I recommend you do a visit to a metal recycling yard and consider it “Survival Training”. Its far more valuable “Training” than something ridiculous like “Bug Out Training”.



But concrete got very expensive, fast. Where it also got really expensive fast was all the little fasteners, nuts and bolts , tension wires, U-bolts, tension adjusters and of course all the trips back into town each time I figured out what I didn’t have but needed before I could move on to the next part of the job. I kept looking down at the little bag of hardware doohickeys and realizing we were a hundred plus dollars poorer with each trip to town.



Considering this, I’m glad I let MrsC5 pressure me into doing this job now instead of after the theoretical collapse, where it no longer would have been possible.



Perhaps, that could be a defining principal of what I am coming to call “The Adapters Movement” as opposed to the Survivalist or Preppers movement. An Adapter accepts the future and adapts there life NOW to flow through it. It’s a full time gig. There is no last minute running away while continuing to live BAU or Business As Usual. If you do have to Bug Out, that means “YOU FAILED”.



Welding would have cut down on some of these costs but that was not in my skillset or tool collection.



But, lets get to the wind generator itself. Now, this article is all about the tower. Not the generator…. but it is part of the story.



One day, MrsC5 showed up with with a wind generator. I could not fault her in that she had got a once in a lifetime deal. It was about a three thousand dollar model, that she had got used for Six hundred dollars. I have lived in vehicles cheaper than that. As a prepper, you would think I would be happy… but no. I saw an expensive and time consuming chore to be added to my list of “Honey Do… before the apocalypse” chores that was way beyond my skillset. We had already just spent a good chunk of our retirement saving putting in solar.



Now, for those drooling and fantasizing about our set up, it’s time for a big reality check.



That is what, Yours Truly, The Warrior of The Wasteland, God of Prepping and all round spiffy dresser, is here for.



C5 Rule of Survival- There is a big difference between KNOWING in the biblical sense and KNOWING in the porn sense.



There is this general idea in our group consciousness, that if you can simply come up with the money for solar and wind power, that it is free power forever. That it is sustainable, clean energy. We have the technology. We can rebuild it.






Now, picture the 6 million dollar man, 20 years later.



He is in a wheel chair. Electronic systems have worn and shorted. Medicare doesn’t cover being rewired. He is riddled with cancer from leaking batteries and heavy metals. All the joints have worn and need complete replacement. His spine and other organic parts are just fucked because the two technologies were never meant to work together. He is addicted to opiates, in constant pain and anger at how he was used by corrupt, corporate governments that used him to stay in power. The government considers him a disposable asset that they might have to make disappear  and they have unplayable dept obligations. The energy and replacement parts are now much more expensive and harder to get due to declining EROEI and all their credit is tied up in huge armies to steal that stuff from others. And with inflation due to a monetary system designed to steal financial wealth from the masses… 6 million dollar man?…PFFFT! Try 6 Billion adjusted to inflation, paying share holders of military contractor industries and graft for elected officials to look the other way while calling this scam, contributions to the next election and healthy democracy.



Or, a simpler way to put it would just be to think about it like your last car. It seemed like a good idea at the time… but how long did you really think that car was going to last you.



Moving parts ware out. Plastics break down. Solar radiation cooks and rust never sleeps.



Not to mention storms. All of this, hopefully wont be burned… or blown away.



All we have really done is take the retirement funds associated for future electric use and put it into our own hands. We are taking all the risks… and we are stuck with it now. We will also not make our money back. This is very expensive electricity.



But it is ours. And it is a temporary buffer against interruptions. So, I am of two minds on this. I’ll get to that in a bit



So! Lets say it now, just encase no one has ever explained this to you. Solar, Wind and BATTERIES is NOT a replacement for fossil Fuels. It is simply a store of Oil, or the excess energy left over and then either financialised or manufactured into product.



Solar panels are quite cheap at the moment. When people are considering this, they miss that it is the cheapest part of the system. Wind and solar have two Achilles Heels. Batteries… and everything else. Remember what I said about The Six Million Dollar Man. It’s two systems that were never made to go together. To solve our problems of pollution associated  with Too Much Complexity, we are trying to solve it by adding even more complexity. What can possibly go wrong.



Lets start with the batteries. Turns out, you don’t just wire it in and walk away to business as usual land. We have found it to be like caring for a child. Its not as simple as checking the water occasionally. There is regular equalization, as well as testing the acid in each cell of each battery and heat control. Its also constantly monitoring your system and  learning a completely new knowledge base. If you don’t get that all right, very expensive batteries stop functioning and need to be replaced far sooner than advertised. We have been waiting for affordable Lithium Batteries. Here is the problem though. Remember what I said about trying to solve problems associated with complexity by adding even more complexity. The is no shortage of Lithium at the moment. Getting it is becoming a major environmental disaster though. Go figure.



So, here is your first bonus read today. The Spiraling Environmental Cost Of Our Lithium Addiction-  https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium-batteries-environment-impact



The next problem I mentioned was… everything else.



The panels produce DC current. The turbine produces DC current. The batteries, you got it, DC current. Our entire electrical infrastructure, house wiring,  and appliances… AC current.  To add insult to injury, most of the electrical products we use actually run on DC but have converters built in to accept the AC. Now, the powers that be decided a long time ago to build their entire infrastructure on AC because it pushed electricity long distances.



To run your house on on DC, it requires huge inverters to turn it into AC. That processes waists a good chunk of your electricity. Its very expensive and inefficient… and this was the system, god luv her, that MrsC5 wanted. Women and Cats….



Well, She paid for it so what can I really say in the Matter. She was smart enough to realize banks were not a trustworthy store of wealth and she may never see the majority  of the pension she had paid into for life and wanted to divest a percentage into tangible assets… so she gets mondo brownie points for that. I, on the other hand, barely had a pot to piss in. Living on rage and Adaptive survival skills.



I guess I am one of the Haves now. I have electric, pumped,  fresh drinking well water to flush with. I can communicate via the internet with all you fine, sketchy folks, watch Netflix and have all the porn I can possibly watch. Good times.



And this is a great moment for DJ-C5 to share a local Atlantic cana’duh, punk roots band with something to say worth listening to. I had been saving this one for my New Years predictions but it seems to fit here. Feel free to hit pause often and read what is said in the background.






Some of you have heard me say before…



“C5 Rule of Survival- If you want to know how to prepare for the dark future I see coming, it all starts by coming to grips with that Refrigeration is a privilege and not a right. If you can fully wrap your head around and accept that, all else follows.”



This is another inspirational quote from Chris Martenson that we both like-



“So I guess I could be an optimist….. by telling them that I have 99% confidence that humans will someday be powering 100% of their energy needs from the sun. I’ll just leave out that what I mean is that, in 100 or 200 years, humans will have painfully reverted back to a 1600’s-style subsistence farming lifestyle.”



I find that overly optimistic. I give us a 20 percent chance of not going extinct as a species in the next 100 years. I’m working for that. Cheers to optimism.



Where I can get behind solar and wind power is as a psychological buffer to help people not blow their heads off while they get used to the idea of those two quotes. Something to help them Transition mentally while they come to grips with that we will not be able to fully keep our lifestyle by simply changing technology. We will eventually come to realize that we wont be able to live, work, farm, heat, get water or find a spouse from anywhere further than we can walk… and that is a big mental shift.



It does seem that technological solutions will rest in Do It Yourself guys hands. If you really want to create Environmentally Responsible technologies,  beyond the worn out cliches, here are some of my suggestions to save the planet, making use of technologies we already have and don’t need to wish into existence.



That fridge thing. A complete redesign of refrigeration units. I have wanted to build one of these but it is beyond my skillset. No more stand up fridges. It would take up much more floor space and it would be wise not to keep it anywhere that you actually heat like a kitchen. Inconvenience. Get used to it, suburb rats. It would load from the top like a chest freezer so cold air doesn’t flow out of it each time the door is opened. It would be hyper insulated (at least a foot and a half of high density insulation and reflective material)… and it would work on the principle of an Ice Chest buy freezing a chunk of ice then turning off. It would use a DC or Direct Current Motor, hooked into your solar of wind power, and only need to work during sun or wind while storing that cold. No need for batteries to be used up getting you through the night or interruptions. It could work just the same with grid tied AC current, only using power when it is available. Yes, get used to interrupted power, either from super storms or brown outs or black outs in our over taxed, vulnerable and aging grid… or simply, poverty, no longer being able to afford unlimited electricity. This is already what it is like in less “developed” countries I have been to. The power goes off all the time. Its no big deal. People stop what they were doing and socialize for a while or go for a walk. Or they learn to store energy for when they need it.



How about old school DC motors and power tools converted to work as such (like an electric chainsaw or woodmill that only works when when your panels give you enough juice and don’t work when they don’t. Or how about putting a DC motor in an already existing Generator to convert DC to AC for tools on demand as solar is available.  Ill get to that in a moment.



As pointed out by others, solar heating water is a technology we already understand and have since the 1800s. Water can be heated to steam for energy generation. Simple tech. No need for batteries, solar panels or complex wind turbines. Speaking of which, physical wind power. We have been doing that A Very Long time. Go Dutch. There is a finger in the dyke joke in here somewhere but I am getting nothing.



I am going to point out something obvious. Key Survival Products that you should purchase Now while they are cheap and available. This is called, “Prepping”. Its also where Me and the prepping/ survivalist world started to go our separate ways. Faced with some of the short sighted lunacy of the survivalist world, I decided to point out my top 5 prepper items, non of which you carry in a Bug Out Bag or strap to your combat harness. (Sigh****. And you guys are consider experts for what reason?)    #3 and #4 are below.



a tool



The reason I made this proclamation  was because I knew from first hand experience what products actually got used. These were Real Force Multipliers and indispensable. A reason to store oil in the form of a solar system. If there is any doubt, the vast majority of that tower was built with these two tools. The greenhouse in the backdrop was screwed together with a drill. I wouldn’t want to pull off that job with a screw driver. I can just hear experienced construction guys in my head, helping me to confirm to memory, “Nail the ones you love. Screw the ones you don’t”… but that was a loving screw job that nailing would not do. Well, that unsavory construction principle is now stuck in your head as well. I believe in sharing.



Look, I had to shoot a skunk a couple of days ago that had moved in under our house and was making our lives and pets miserable. I was conflicted about this because I consider the skunk my spiritual power animal. Even a grisly bear does not fuck with a skunk. You might try it once or twice but then you learn. But for every round I have needed to fire to actually kill something, I have had to use these two tools HUNDREDS of times. And that should give you your perspective of priority change. Don’t say I never taught you anything.



When I first pointed this out, MrsC5 recalled an experience when she was doing volunteer work in Costa Rica. A fix it job came up that required a drill. There was no drill in this town so a runner was sent to the next town where there was one. When it came back, the drill bit was a nail. Put that story to memory. Internalize it. I broke or wore out 6 drill bits on this job. One killer 22 caliber bullet was fired. 6 drill bits.



The grinder was also used to cut this recycled water tank. This is what we  mixed the large amount of concrete in for the windmill base, with a common hoe. Hot water tanks are common, free and handy. My friends Mythos and Logos have an advanced version of this they mix all their Cob in.



a cement



This was another chore I used these two tools for this year. Getting those windows in.The metal I cut out will go back over the windows as storm shutters. This is our fireproof, storm shelter (at least once I get it anchored to the ground like the tower). One of the reasons for the window on the end is if a storm blows it on its side, we can break our way out.



a shed



While you are looking at that photo, I want to point out two subtle things that tie into things I mentioned earlier in this post. I also had to lift the rear end of this container this year. The ground had settled it on a minor slant. I had to rent a couple of two ton bottle jacks for the job. I kicked myself because I always saw them in garage sales, but thought to myself, why would I need a large bottle jack. Since we are getting two more of these containers soon (divesting  more retirement saving into tangible assets. One for a goat barn. One for a rental cabin) a bottle jack will become an essential part of my life. A true Force Multiplier that is indispensable. Here is the tie in. I saw a rack of them at the scrap yard… to be purchased for metal cost alone. Now if you look even closer, you will notice a once in a lifetime find, leaning up against that container, that we found at the scrap yard. Its a Sulky horse racing buggy. Believe it or not, such an item had been on MrsC5’s and myself’s list of must find items. But never in my wildest imaginings did I think I would find one that is stainless steel, in newish condition, light enough, I could pick it up over my head and carry it home by roping it onto the roof of our Honda Civic. And never could I imagine I could get it for metal cost. 60$. By the way, we don’t have a horse. I think I will save my reasons for this build for a future post.



Here is your next bonus read of the day- 12 reasons people refuse to address near term societal collapse-  https://www.lowimpact.org/12-reasons-people-refuse-idea-societal-collapse/



I noticed, the term he came up with, independently, of what was necessary to survive all this, was something he has called “Deep Adaptation”. Hundredth Monkey thing going on here.



One final Bonus read is this. If you are all readed out at this point, scroll down to his personal photos near the end and  his explanation of them for an eye opener as to where we are right now in collapse. https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/114404/our-delusional-economy-poised-slam-brick-wall-reality



Ah, heck. I’ll through in one last C5 practical survival adaptation as a, Thanks for playing the Adaptation game, parting gift. This upgrade mod made me very happy each time I walk past it.



a tub



Unlike that other build, this one was so quick and practical. There is a zen like simplicity to it. Even considering the near drought conditions and heat this year, we were able to catch enough rain water to keep the greenhouses watered. Next year I may add window screens to keep mosquitos out. Unlike rain barrels,  I have never had one of these crack when the water froze. And C5 likes free. This one goes out to all the poor men that have heard, “Honey. We should renovate the bathroom”. My heart goes out to you.



And with that, Lets end this with a song. A rather unusual remake I stumbled upon of one of my favorite “Angry” songs. How, oh how did my dirty, tiny,  underground music scene become GenX classic rock?






“And that is why I wont do two shows a night, any more.”



If you would like to give a Tip for writing services rendered or to support the cause, go to the top of the page and hit, “Giving just the Tip”.  All “Tips” go towards material costs for future experiments.



(FYI- No donations were used in this project)      (And thank you, R.T.  and S.R. for the donations. I was truly honored and touched to get a donation from all the way over in Germany. It gave me a moment of remembering we all share this ball floating in space and face the same future)



Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: cernunnos5 on October 07, 2018, 08:59:07 AM
Thanks, Re, for putting this one up.

Today, I have officially decided to take the day off... and unplug... and I could use a shower...pew. I do have a tendency to get obsessively focused on a project... and then crash afterwords. Chow. :coffee:
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Eddie on October 07, 2018, 09:33:16 AM
I just wanted to make a couple of points about the way wind generators are different than solar panels, as far as the way you deal with the "free electricity" they provide. (Yay! Free Electricity! Except for C5's tired back, and all that wiring.). Mrs. C5's $600 score was an excellent find,btw.

For one thing, solar panels put out DC power at a fixed voltage. Wind generators (most of them, including the whisper 200) put out AC because they spin an alternator, not a generator.

One good thing about that.....is that, properly matched with the correct pump, they can pump water without any battery involved.

Because batteries are the weak link (imho) of any alternative power system, in the future this might be more important, as batteries get hard to come by, or you have to make them.

But...because it's an alternator and you usually do want to tie it in to your battery bank (so it can charge your batteries when you don't get sun) you have to convert the AC to DC. This is usually done with a fairly easy to source, "simple" electronic component called a diode. Car alternators have diodes.

Most wind generators are three phase, that is that they have three hot wires that come from the turbine, and that all gets sorted out by the controller, which delivers the correct fixed DC voltage to the batteries.

The actual voltage you measure from those three wires coming from the turbine is NOT the 12V or 24V (or whatever) the machine is rated for. The voltage VARIES, as the turbine spins faster or slower in the wind.

The other good thing is that because the turbine puts out AC at fairly high voltage, you don't need huge (expensive) wires between the turbine and the controller, so it can be placed some distance away, close to the batteries.

From the controller to the battery bank...this is where you have to have those big copper battery cables. So knowing  this ahead of time, it can help you decide where to locate your turbine, or more likely the best place to put the batteries, since you want to put the turbine where the wind is best, right?

Since turbines often do spin a lot in times of no sun, they provide some nice synergy with a solar based off-grid system. They might not give you nearly as much free electricity (#sarcasm), but they can give it at very opportune times, when you need it the most.

As David said there needs to be a switch to (using the magnets in the turbine) to "lock" the thing down, which is something normally done when the thing is wired up. This is a safety thing, so you can stop the turbine in an emergency.

With a wind turbine,you also make more electricity than your batteries can use to charge when the wind is up, and so (unlike solar panels) you have to have what's called a diversion load or "dump load" to absorb the unwanted power, or it makes problems for your electronics/batteries....so you can heat water (like in a nice big water tank in your greenhouse) which could provide thermal mass heating, perhaps. Incandescent lights are one way to do it. They waste a lot of power and give off light and heat you might be able to use somehow.

In storms turbines are known to self destruct. The Whisper is made for sailboats and is pretty durable, and it's designed so the blades flattten and de-power in high winds. But the safest thing is to take the turbine down in winds that are higher than what the thing is rated for, which makes C5's mounting system pretty ideal.

My turbines are designed with replaceable aluminum blades that can be easily replaced. Mike (the guy who built them) finally went that route after fooling around with various fiberglass and other alternatives for many years. Simple and replaceable rather than complicated to make and (possibly) more durable....it's a trade-off.

Very nice off-grid system the C5's have managed to put together, and kudos for doing it mindfully using salvage parts and on a budget. I'm very impressed, and proud of them for gittin' 'er done.



Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Nearingsfault on October 07, 2018, 11:25:27 AM
I just wanted to make a couple of points about the way wind generators are different than solar panels, as far as the way you deal with the "free electricity" they provide. (Yay! Free Electricity! Except for C5's tired back, and all that wiring.). Mrs. C5's $600 score was an excellent find,btw.

For one thing, solar panels put out DC power at a fixed voltage. Wind generators (most of them, including the whisper 200) put out AC because they spin an alternator, not a generator.

One good thing about that.....is that, properly matched with the correct pump, they can pump water without any battery involved.

Because batteries are the weak link (imho) of any alternative power system, in the future this might be more important, as batteries get hard to come by, or you have to make them.

But...because it's an alternator and you usually do want to tie it in to your battery bank (so it can charge your batteries when you don't get sun) you have to convert the AC to DC. This is usually done with a fairly easy to source, "simple" electronic component called a diode. Car alternators have diodes.

Most wind generators are three phase, that is that they have three hot wires that come from the turbine, and that all gets sorted out by the controller, which delivers the correct fixed DC voltage to the batteries.

The actual voltage you measure from those three wires coming from the turbine is NOT the 12V or 24V (or whatever) the machine is rated for. The voltage VARIES, as the turbine spins faster or slower in the wind.

The other good thing is that because the turbine puts out AC at fairly high voltage, you don't need huge (expensive) wires between the turbine and the controller, so it can be placed some distance away, close to the batteries.

From the controller to the battery bank...this is where you have to have those big copper battery cables. So knowing  this ahead of time, it can help you decide where to locate your turbine, or more likely the best place to put the batteries, since you want to put the turbine where the wind is best, right?

Since turbines often do spin a lot in times of no sun, they provide some nice synergy with a solar based off-grid system. They might not give you nearly as much free electricity (#sarcasm), but they can give it at very opportune times, when you need it the most.

As David said there needs to be a switch to (using the magnets in the turbine) to "lock" the thing down, which is something normally done when the thing is wired up. This is a safety thing, so you can stop the turbine in an emergency.

With a wind turbine,you also make more electricity than your batteries can use to charge when the wind is up, and so (unlike solar panels) you have to have what's called a diversion load or "dump load" to absorb the unwanted power, or it makes problems for your electronics/batteries....so you can heat water (like in a nice big water tank in your greenhouse) which could provide thermal mass heating, perhaps. Incandescent lights are one way to do it. They waste a lot of power and give off light and heat you might be able to use somehow.

In storms turbines are known to self destruct. The Whisper is made for sailboats and is pretty durable, and it's designed so the blades flattten and de-power in high winds. But the safest thing is to take the turbine down in winds that are higher than what the thing is rated for, which makes C5's mounting system pretty ideal.

My turbines are designed with replaceable aluminum blades that can be easily replaced. Mike (the guy who built them) finally went that route after fooling around with various fiberglass and other alternatives for many years. Simple and replaceable rather than complicated to make and (possibly) more durable....it's a trade-off.

Very nice off-grid system the C5's have managed to put together, and kudos for doing it mindfully using salvage parts and on a budget. I'm very impressed, and proud of them for gittin' 'er done.
just a few add ins that I know you understand Eddie but others do not. The dump load is mandatory because unlike solar panels if the wind is blowing you have to send that power somewhere. If you were to just disconnect once the batteries are charged you would spin faster and faster til the turbine self destructs.
Next all turbines operate in a specific voltage window and are traditionally matched to a dumb charge controller that cuts in only at specific speeds and clips extra voltage outside that range. Smart mppt chargers are starting to be more common for small wind as you generate 2 times the yearly watts compared to the traditional chargers. The controller is over twice the cost though. For us they are becoming the norm since our wind sites are mediocre. If you have constant wind in the right window the extra money on a fancy controller is not worth it. Both of you are spot on about complexity. Wind especially is hard on gear. If you are a former and are doing this by a second controller now... you will need it some day.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Eddie on October 07, 2018, 11:31:53 AM
David you are so humble. Every time I hear you say that Eddie already knows something, I know I've found a learning moment for myself. Because you always cover the stuff I either left out or misunderstood myself. LOL

Thanks.

One of my problems is that I study things and then don't apply them on a regular basis, so I start to bleed knowledge. It might be worse as I get older too, although I don't want to believe that. LOL.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Eddie on October 07, 2018, 11:35:47 AM
I bought one of those freezer/kegerator controls, btw. I do follow up on some of your great suggestions.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Nearingsfault on October 07, 2018, 12:13:44 PM
I bought one of those freezer/kegerator controls, btw. I do follow up on some of your great suggestions.
I try to give people the benefit of the doubt most of the time. Good to hear about the thermostat It's a great cheap hack. I know C5 talked about a DC fridge but they are really expensive and not worth it if you have a working inverter and battery bank. I think I would put the extra cash into a spare inverter...
Happy Canadian Thanksgiving everyone...
David
Title: 🔌 Wind power makes the ground warmer even as it cools the planet
Post by: RE on October 08, 2018, 02:57:41 AM
https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/10/wind-power-helps-limit-global-warming-but-causes-some-local-warming/

Wind power makes the ground warmer even as it cools the planet
So if US switched entirely to wind turbines, what is the trade-off?

Scott K. Johnson - 10/7/2018, 5:00 AM

(https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/wind_turbine_germanborrillo-800x600.jpg)

The solution to climate change is, at least conceptually, simple. Activities that add greenhouse gases to the atmospherechiefly the use of fossil fuelsneed to be changed or eliminated. Of course, not every alternative to fossil fuels will be equally beneficial. Technologies have to be evaluated for costs and benefits. One thing we know about wind turbines, for example, is that they can alter local temperatures by increasing the mixing of air at and above the surface.

Further Reading
Windfarms turn up the heat at night

Setting aside inevitable but ignorant claims that wind turbines are just as bad as coal plants (they arent by a longshot), it does make sense to think seriously about the effect turbines have on local temperature. Harvards Lee Miller and David Keith set out to fill some holes in our knowledge by simulating a less-than-implausible scenario in which the US produces all its electricity with wind power. At this scale, they wondered, what does the trade-off between fossil fuels and wind power look like?
High-wind scenario

To find out, Miller and Keith turned to a high-resolution climate model of the continental United States. In the middle third of the countrywhere winds are higherthey placed enough virtual wind turbines to produce almost half a terawatt of electricity. This would meet 100 percent of current US demand.

Further Reading
Carpeting Sahara with wind and solar farms could make it rain

The results of their simulation showed that the continental US got about 0.2C warmer, on average, with the turbines in place. Within the wind-turbine-hosting region, that number was more like 0.5C. That falls roughly in line with previous real-world measurements around wind farms.

The temperature change is larger at night and smaller during the day, because surface warming and convection driven by the Sun overwhelm the influence of the turbines. But when the air is calmer at night, the turbines help mix warmer air down toward the cooling surface. Thats why this is essentially an instantaneous but reversible effect. Turbines dont add energy to the atmospherethey just move some air around.

The researchers attempt to estimate the climate benefit of these turbines for comparison. But doing this in a truly apples-to-apples way is tricky. While the temperature change caused by turbines mixing air is purely local, the benefit of reduced greenhouse gas emissions is felt globallymeaning that wind turbines in one location are purely beneficial everywhere else in the world. And while the local effect of a turbine ends when you turn it off, warming caused by greenhouse gases continually accumulates and lasts for centuries.

Global warming also includes myriad changes to precipitation and extreme weather patterns beyond the difference on your thermometer. This doesnt even get into other consequences of fossil fuel emissions, like ocean acidification or pollutants that directly impact human health.
Thinking globally

Still, Miller and Keith make their best estimate. In their analysis, they calculated the global warming avoided if the USand every other countryeliminated its power-plant emissions by 2080. (This doesnt include other sources of greenhouse-gas emissions.) In that hypothetical scenario, the avoided warming in the US in 2100 would actually be roughly equivalent to the added local warmth caused by the wind turbines. Obviously, if the only reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions came from the US, the local benefit would be much smaller.

The list of caveats for accurately interpreting these results is long. Beyond those already mentioned, electrifying the energy used by buildings and transportation with those wind turbines would add considerably to the climate benefit. But doing so would also require more turbines and thus increase their negative impact somewhat.

On the other side of the ledger, its unclear what the combination of wind-turbine impacts and benefits would mean for US agricultural production, to give one example. And the specific locations of the wind turbines can alter their impacts, so simulating a scenario of turbines spread evenly over the middle of the country can only tell you so much. This study scratches the surface of a complex question.

But the researchers point out that replacing all the wind turbines in their scenario with solar panels would probably have just one-tenth the local warming effectabout 0.02C averaged over the continental US. Solar panels affect local temperatures in a very different way, by changing the among of sunlight absorbed on the surface. Since solar panels can produce the same amount of electricity in a much smaller area, their influence isnt felt as broadly.

Wind beats fossil fuels under any reasonable measure of long-term environmental impacts per unit of energy generated, the researchers write. But nothing is free, wind power included. They add, While these impacts differ from the climate impacts of [greenhouse gases] in many important respects, they should not be neglected.

So, as we develop and choose the mix of energy sources that will keep the grid humming forward, this is one more factor to consider.

Joule, 2018. DOI: 10.1016/j.joule.2018.09.009 (About DOIs).
Title: Re: 🔌 Wind power makes the ground warmer even as it cools the planet
Post by: Eddie on October 08, 2018, 05:32:31 AM
https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/10/wind-power-helps-limit-global-warming-but-causes-some-local-warming/

Wind power makes the ground warmer even as it cools the planet
So if US switched entirely to wind turbines, what is the trade-off?

Scott K. Johnson - 10/7/2018, 5:00 AM

(https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/wind_turbine_germanborrillo-800x600.jpg)

The solution to climate change is, at least conceptually, simple. Activities that add greenhouse gases to the atmospherechiefly the use of fossil fuelsneed to be changed or eliminated. Of course, not every alternative to fossil fuels will be equally beneficial. Technologies have to be evaluated for costs and benefits. One thing we know about wind turbines, for example, is that they can alter local temperatures by increasing the mixing of air at and above the surface.

Further Reading
Windfarms turn up the heat at night

Setting aside inevitable but ignorant claims that wind turbines are just as bad as coal plants (they arent by a longshot), it does make sense to think seriously about the effect turbines have on local temperature. Harvards Lee Miller and David Keith set out to fill some holes in our knowledge by simulating a less-than-implausible scenario in which the US produces all its electricity with wind power. At this scale, they wondered, what does the trade-off between fossil fuels and wind power look like?
High-wind scenario

To find out, Miller and Keith turned to a high-resolution climate model of the continental United States. In the middle third of the countrywhere winds are higherthey placed enough virtual wind turbines to produce almost half a terawatt of electricity. This would meet 100 percent of current US demand.

Further Reading
Carpeting Sahara with wind and solar farms could make it rain

The results of their simulation showed that the continental US got about 0.2C warmer, on average, with the turbines in place. Within the wind-turbine-hosting region, that number was more like 0.5C. That falls roughly in line with previous real-world measurements around wind farms.

The temperature change is larger at night and smaller during the day, because surface warming and convection driven by the Sun overwhelm the influence of the turbines. But when the air is calmer at night, the turbines help mix warmer air down toward the cooling surface. Thats why this is essentially an instantaneous but reversible effect. Turbines dont add energy to the atmospherethey just move some air around.

The researchers attempt to estimate the climate benefit of these turbines for comparison. But doing this in a truly apples-to-apples way is tricky. While the temperature change caused by turbines mixing air is purely local, the benefit of reduced greenhouse gas emissions is felt globallymeaning that wind turbines in one location are purely beneficial everywhere else in the world. And while the local effect of a turbine ends when you turn it off, warming caused by greenhouse gases continually accumulates and lasts for centuries.

Global warming also includes myriad changes to precipitation and extreme weather patterns beyond the difference on your thermometer. This doesnt even get into other consequences of fossil fuel emissions, like ocean acidification or pollutants that directly impact human health.
Thinking globally

Still, Miller and Keith make their best estimate. In their analysis, they calculated the global warming avoided if the USand every other countryeliminated its power-plant emissions by 2080. (This doesnt include other sources of greenhouse-gas emissions.) In that hypothetical scenario, the avoided warming in the US in 2100 would actually be roughly equivalent to the added local warmth caused by the wind turbines. Obviously, if the only reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions came from the US, the local benefit would be much smaller.

The list of caveats for accurately interpreting these results is long. Beyond those already mentioned, electrifying the energy used by buildings and transportation with those wind turbines would add considerably to the climate benefit. But doing so would also require more turbines and thus increase their negative impact somewhat.

On the other side of the ledger, its unclear what the combination of wind-turbine impacts and benefits would mean for US agricultural production, to give one example. And the specific locations of the wind turbines can alter their impacts, so simulating a scenario of turbines spread evenly over the middle of the country can only tell you so much. This study scratches the surface of a complex question.

But the researchers point out that replacing all the wind turbines in their scenario with solar panels would probably have just one-tenth the local warming effectabout 0.02C averaged over the continental US. Solar panels affect local temperatures in a very different way, by changing the among of sunlight absorbed on the surface. Since solar panels can produce the same amount of electricity in a much smaller area, their influence isnt felt as broadly.

Wind beats fossil fuels under any reasonable measure of long-term environmental impacts per unit of energy generated, the researchers write. But nothing is free, wind power included. They add, While these impacts differ from the climate impacts of [greenhouse gases] in many important respects, they should not be neglected.

So, as we develop and choose the mix of energy sources that will keep the grid humming forward, this is one more factor to consider.

Joule, 2018. DOI: 10.1016/j.joule.2018.09.009 (About DOIs).

I read this one already. The "anti-renewables" articles hit the news in no time. Funny how that works.

Looks pretty insignificant to me, comparatively speaking. Good try, Charlie, but no cigar.
Title: 🌬️ Deepwater Wind bought for $510 million
Post by: RE on October 09, 2018, 02:07:24 AM
All you have to do C5 is sell the Windapult to these folks.  You'll be RICH!🤑 (Get a Patent!)

All you need to do is put up 5 Windapults Offshore and you're worth half a Billion!

RE

Deepwater Wind bought for $510 million

(https://static01.nyt.com/images/2016/12/14/science/15windpower/00windpower-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale)

By Alex Kuffner
Journal Staff Writer
Posted at 10:12 AM Updated Oct 8, 2018 at 12:35 PM

Orsted, the Danish company that is the worlds largest offshore wind developer, has agreed to pay $510 million to buy Rhode Island-based Deepwater Wind, the company that two years ago built the first offshore wind farm in the United States, a five-turbine array near Block Island.

PROVIDENCE, R.I. -- Orsted, the Danish company that is the worlds largest offshore wind developer, has agreed to pay $510 million to buy Rhode Island-based Deepwater Wind, the company that two years ago built the first offshore wind farm in the United States, a five-turbine array near Block Island.

The acquisition, which was announced Monday and will be finalized in the coming months, will result in the creation of Orsted U.S. Offshore Wind, a new company that will have more than 8,000 megawatts in development in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware and Virginia.

Deepwaters Providence headquarters will remain open under the agreement, with all of its staff in place, including chief executive officer Jeffrey Grybowski, who will become co-CEO of the new company alongside Thomas Brostrom, who currently heads up Orsteds U.S. operations out of Boston.

The deal comes just months after Orsteds Bay State Wind project lost out on a chance to negotiate long-term contracts to sell power to utilities in Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Securing a power purchase contract is critical to development because it guarantees decades of revenue and can be used to attract financing.
Related content
Researchers studying seafloor at offshore wind site
August 13, 2018
Deepwater Wind ramps up work on 3 more wind farms
July 17, 2018
Connecticut to buy offshore wind power from Deepwater Wind
June 14, 2018

While the rival Vineyard Wind project, a venture backed by another Danish concern, won the bidding process in Massachusetts last spring, Deepwaters Revolution Wind proposal was selected at the same time by Rhode Island. The Deepwater project has won separate competitive bidding processes in Connecticut and Long Island, helping to cement its position as the leading offshore wind company in the United States.

Orsted agreed to buy Deepwater from D.E. Shaw, a New York investment firm that has owned the Providence company from its beginnings more than a decade ago and through construction of the Block Island Wind Farm, the 30-megawatt project that went into operation in 2016 and is still the only offshore wind farm in the United States.

Grybowski said in an interview that Deepwater had been exploring partnerships or acquisitions as competition in the offshore wind market has increased in the United States, with a host of developers, many with international backing, stepping forward with proposals. While he said that the company had considered other offers, the deal with Orsted, reached over the past several months, made the most sense as it moves to expand its ambitions up and down the East Coast and elsewhere in the United States.

This is the right partnership for Deepwater to help us go to the next stage for our projects and the vision that we laid out a number of years ago, he said. We werent just going to partner with anyone. We couldnt think of a better combination than partnering with Orsted.

Orsted built the worlds first offshore wind farm in 1991 in Denmark and now has 24 projects in operation, totaling 5,100 megawatts, more than any other company. Although the techniques to build wind farms are the same in the United States as in Europe, permitting is different. Brostrom said that the acquisition brings together Orsteds construction expertise with Deepwaters knowledge of the U.S. market, which, despite state and federal programs to push forward development and a drop in the price of offshore wind has had to navigate opposition.

Its new here, so theres always been a little bit more skepticism, he said. The local stakeholders are different. They need to get more comfortable with offshore wind. In that regard, its different.

The agreement, Brostrom said, will not affect the Bay State Wind project, which is proposed in an area of federal waters between Block Island and Marthas Vineyard. The Revolution project, located in the same general area, also will not change, nor will Deepwaters other proposals, Grybowski said.

We are moving forward on all of them as planned, he said. After closing the transaction, well look at opportunities to make the projects better and obviously bring to bear Orsteds considerable engineering, procurement and construction expertise. If anything, this combination should solidify peoples confidence in our ability to build these.

Under the deal, he said that the companys operations in Rhode Island will expand. In the near term, a chief operating officer will join the Providence office from Orsted.

Grybowski thanked D.E. Shaw for its support. In a statement, Bryan Martin, managing director of D.E. Shaw and chairman of Deepwater, said the new company will continue to make history.

Catherine Bowes, the National Wildlife Federations wind program director, said the acquisition comes at a pivotal time for the industry.

We know responsibly developed offshore wind power offers a critical solution to climate change, and the first round of U.S. projects must be sited and built with wildlife in mind, she said in a statement. Deepwater Winds Block Island Wind Farm set a strong precedent with the development of Americas first offshore turbines, and we look forward to continuing to work with Orsted and all offshore wind companies to advance responsibly developed projects for America.

akuffner@providencejournal.com / (401) 277-7457
Title: Windapult now Published on Global Economic Intersection
Post by: RE on October 09, 2018, 07:36:33 PM
http://econintersect.com/pages/opinion/opinion.php?post=201810082304 (http://econintersect.com/pages/opinion/opinion.php?post=201810082304)

RE
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Nearingsfault on October 10, 2018, 05:27:27 AM
It lists the author as caregory 5. I thought that was a funny typo...
Title: Re: Windapult now Published on Global Economic Intersection
Post by: cernunnos5 on October 10, 2018, 05:29:14 AM
http://econintersect.com/pages/opinion/opinion.php?post=201810082304 (http://econintersect.com/pages/opinion/opinion.php?post=201810082304)

RE
Thanks for the heads up
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: cernunnos5 on October 10, 2018, 05:35:49 AM
It lists the author as caregory 5. I thought that was a funny typo...
Ya, Say my name, biatches :evil4:You are gunna here it alot.

By the way, thanks for the info you wrote. I'll go over that again.
Sorry for the slow reply. I usually burn out crash for a few days after an article or a build
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: RE on October 10, 2018, 05:37:58 AM
It lists the author as caregory 5. I thought that was a funny typo...

That's the Japanese pronunciation.  :icon_mrgreen:

RE
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Nearingsfault on October 10, 2018, 06:25:58 AM
It lists the author as caregory 5. I thought that was a funny typo...
Ya, Say my name, biatches :evil4:You are gunna here it alot.

By the way, thanks for the info you wrote. I'll go over that again.
Sorry for the slow reply. I usually burn out crash for a few days after an article or a build
Understood, I'm an introvert myself and need recharge time. for your setup if you were buying new at full retail it would be either the PWM controller listed above roughly 800-1000 canadian or the midnite solar clipper with a classic 200 MPPT controller roughly 2300-2500 canadian... another 3-500 for all the accessories like 3 way brake switches, breakers, and 3 phase lightning arrestors, wire strain relief harness(usually referred to as a horse cock funny enough). Your site looks flat and I think you are close to the water so probably just the basic PWM controller with built in dump load. We're all trees and hills here hence the more expensive answer. The mistake to not make is to go for the real cheap solenoid based controllers which just turn it on or off. They inject too high voltage into the batteries which is fine if your batteries live discharged but as they top up leads to serious over temperature and shorter life. the whisper can put out upwards of 150 volts on each of the 3 legs so you need good control of it. PWM stands for pulse width modulation so its a fast pulsing switch that monitors the bank and shoots different lengths of full voltage pulses into the batteries to avoid continuous over voltage...
Cheers,  David
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: cernunnos5 on October 10, 2018, 08:14:13 AM
I also just noticed Farmgal did me an an article   https://livingmydreamlifeonthefarm.com/2018/10/10/a-little-c5-update/
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: cernunnos5 on October 13, 2018, 12:50:35 PM
I would like to pick you folks brains.

I had been planning my next years predictions for my holiday post.

The problem is... one of those predictions might not wait till then.

I had planned on throwing in that 2019 is my call for when 2008 Redux ( Longer,Harder and Uncut) happens. I usually mock the "Economic collapse. Oh no, this year for sure types"... but there is an emerging house of cards thing going on. It aint just one issue... and I am making my call and willing to be  made to look silly. I called The Commodities Crash and then the Hurricane spike and The Polar Vortex new normal... so I am feeling pretty good about myself.

Here is the deal though. My spidy sense has been poking me to do a quick blog post to give people a warning and Im not sure I should wait till the holiday post. Now, I am not an economic guy. I have no skin in the game. Not my thing. I'v just got this C5s brain personal algorithm thing going on.

Soooo.... I thought I would ask others opinions....before making a fool of myself
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Nearingsfault on October 13, 2018, 01:07:23 PM
I would like to pick you folks brains.

I had been planning my next years predictions for my holiday post.

The problem is... one of those predictions might not wait till then.

I had planned on throwing in that 2019 is my call for when 2008 Redux ( Longer,Harder and Uncut) happens. I usually mock the "Economic collapse. Oh no, this year for sure types"... but there is an emerging house of cards thing going on. It aint just one issue... and I am making my call and willing to be  made to look silly. I called The Commodities Crash and then the Hurricane spike and The Polar Vortex new normal... so I am feeling pretty good about myself.

Here is the deal though. My spidy sense has been poking me to do a quick blog post to give people a warning and Im not sure I should wait till the holiday post. Now, I am not an economic guy. I have no skin in the game. Not my thing. I'v just got this C5s brain personal algorithm thing going on.

Soooo.... I thought I would ask others opinions....before making a fool of myself
Ask a collection of doomers if collapse is coming?  :o ;D
I do feel something big is in the air. This fall, this winter, next year who knows. Lots of conversations lately about stressed out maxed out acquaintances. I even got a request for a loan from a friend... That has never happened.  Usually centered around housing in cities. Around here everyone but the tourists have been broke for decades! Fall would be the time for ticking time bombs to go off. I would not call it but a gloomy warning about financial caution might hit a few ears and do some good.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: RE on October 13, 2018, 01:09:56 PM
I would like to pick you folks brains.

I had been planning my next years predictions for my holiday post.

The problem is... one of those predictions might not wait till then.

I had planned on throwing in that 2019 is my call for when 2008 Redux ( Longer,Harder and Uncut) happens. I usually mock the "Economic collapse. Oh no, this year for sure types"... but there is an emerging house of cards thing going on. It aint just one issue... and I am making my call and willing to be  made to look silly. I called The Commodities Crash and then the Hurricane spike and The Polar Vortex new normal... so I am feeling pretty good about myself.

Here is the deal though. My spidy sense has been poking me to do a quick blog post to give people a warning and Im not sure I should wait till the holiday post. Now, I am not an economic guy. I have no skin in the game. Not my thing. I'v just got this C5s brain personal algorithm thing going on.

Soooo.... I thought I would ask others opinions....before making a fool of myself

Don't worry about making a fool of yourself, Kunstler has been doing this for years. lol.

I quit making absolute timeline predictions after going berzerk with the 2008 crash and figuring the Sky would Fall TOMORROW, Chicken Little style.  The sky will fall, but exactly when is a real tough call because there are som many variables and permutations.  Prior to your arival here we had a Diner Palloy who was always predicting a total collapse within months or weeks of his post, usually revolving around a geopoliticalproblem ongoing with the Ruskies or China.

On the other hand, Eddie thinks we have 20 years left here for BAU, long enough for him to finally maybe actually retire with his massive load of debt paid off. lol.  It doesn't matter to me much exactly when anymore, since I will likely be dead before it comes, unless you happen to be right and it comes in 2019.  In which case I get to witness it from this side of the Great Divide, but if it happens later, I'll see it from the Other Side.

RE
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Eddie on October 13, 2018, 01:30:54 PM
If I had to guess it'll just a be a bad recession this time, with a rebound, perhaps not that robust, but some kind of BAU will go on.

Worst case we have worldwide deflation and a real depression, which WAS avoided in 2008, although at great cost. If unemployment goes way up, it will get really hard for most westerners, particularly those who hold debt. Even though I do hold debt, I am not heavily leveraged. But I do worry, of course.

We have years of increasingly bad climate problems before the crops really fail, which means instant famine. It will come, and my own optimism comes more from knowing I won't likely be around in 2050, than it does from any kind of real hope of change.

We have several more rounds of economic musical chairs left. It's ultimately food and oil output that drive civilization.

Many things are unknown. This thing the Saudis have done, murdering the journalist Kashoggi...that alone threatens everyone on the planet. Seismic shifts in power will not necessarily favor the west.

If the oil still flows cheaply west and westerners do not become 50-75% unemployed, the house of cards will not fall in 2019-2020.

I tend to view this current coming debacle as a buying opportunity for certain things. I have some ideas...not fully developed yet.

Like most doomers, a part of me would love to see JIT fail. I have been prepping for something like that for 8 years, myself.

But I think the US economy is stronger than some doomers think. Healthy, no.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: cernunnos5 on October 13, 2018, 01:47:39 PM
I just thought I would clarify. Im not calling  economic collapse. I dont see that happening as others picture. I just mean, a repeat of, or the next round, etc. But worse this time.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Surly1 on October 13, 2018, 02:25:55 PM
I would like to pick you folks brains.

I had been planning my next years predictions for my holiday post.

The problem is... one of those predictions might not wait till then.

I had planned on throwing in that 2019 is my call for when 2008 Redux ( Longer,Harder and Uncut) happens. I usually mock the "Economic collapse. Oh no, this year for sure types"... but there is an emerging house of cards thing going on. It aint just one issue... and I am making my call and willing to be  made to look silly. I called The Commodities Crash and then the Hurricane spike and The Polar Vortex new normal... so I am feeling pretty good about myself.

Here is the deal though. My spidy sense has been poking me to do a quick blog post to give people a warning and Im not sure I should wait till the holiday post. Now, I am not an economic guy. I have no skin in the game. Not my thing. I'v just got this C5s brain personal algorithm thing going on.

Soooo.... I thought I would ask others opinions....before making a fool of myself

Don't worry about making a fool of yourself, Kunstler has been doing this for years. lol.

I quit making absolute timeline predictions after going berzerk with the 2008 crash and figuring the Sky would Fall TOMORROW, Chicken Little style.  The sky will fall, but exactly when is a real tough call because there are som many variables and permutations.  Prior to your arival here we had a Diner Palloy who was always predicting a total collapse within months or weeks of his post, usually revolving around a geopoliticalproblem ongoing with the Ruskies or China.

On the other hand, Eddie thinks we have 20 years left here for BAU, long enough for him to finally maybe actually retire with his massive load of debt paid off. lol.  It doesn't matter to me much exactly when anymore, since I will likely be dead before it comes, unless you happen to be right and it comes in 2019.  In which case I get to witness it from this side of the Great Divide, but if it happens later, I'll see it from the Other Side.

RE

I do believe I have seen 2019-20 called as 2008 redux by others. Maybe even here. Morris Berman is on that train as well, and thinks the Mother of All Crashes then would happen @ 2025. At least he said so in a recent podcast.

We're all fools here, so grab a beer and pull up a place by the fiat bonfire.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: cernunnos5 on October 13, 2018, 06:55:57 PM
I would like to pick you folks brains.

I had been planning my next years predictions for my holiday post.

The problem is... one of those predictions might not wait till then.

I had planned on throwing in that 2019 is my call for when 2008 Redux ( Longer,Harder and Uncut) happens. I usually mock the "Economic collapse. Oh no, this year for sure types"... but there is an emerging house of cards thing going on. It aint just one issue... and I am making my call and willing to be  made to look silly. I called The Commodities Crash and then the Hurricane spike and The Polar Vortex new normal... so I am feeling pretty good about myself.

Here is the deal though. My spidy sense has been poking me to do a quick blog post to give people a warning and Im not sure I should wait till the holiday post. Now, I am not an economic guy. I have no skin in the game. Not my thing. I'v just got this C5s brain personal algorithm thing going on.

Soooo.... I thought I would ask others opinions....before making a fool of myself

Don't worry about making a fool of yourself, Kunstler has been doing this for years. lol.

I quit making absolute timeline predictions after going berzerk with the 2008 crash and figuring the Sky would Fall TOMORROW, Chicken Little style.  The sky will fall, but exactly when is a real tough call because there are som many variables and permutations.  Prior to your arival here we had a Diner Palloy who was always predicting a total collapse within months or weeks of his post, usually revolving around a geopoliticalproblem ongoing with the Ruskies or China.

On the other hand, Eddie thinks we have 20 years left here for BAU, long enough for him to finally maybe actually retire with his massive load of debt paid off. lol.  It doesn't matter to me much exactly when anymore, since I will likely be dead before it comes, unless you happen to be right and it comes in 2019.  In which case I get to witness it from this side of the Great Divide, but if it happens later, I'll see it from the Other Side.

RE

I do believe I have seen 2019-20 called as 2008 redux by others. Maybe even here. Morris Berman is on that train as well, and thinks the Mother of All Crashes then would happen @ 2025. At least he said so in a recent podcast.

We're all fools here, so grab a beer and pull up a place by the fiat bonfire.
OK. Now I have had a few beers....

Please keep in mind that I am not an armature in this. I have seen all the panickers before.
I used to scour every article. Now I hover over it like a ghost, looking for ebbs and flows in the data. Rarely will I read an article till I have seen the subject for months in the ebb and flow. I scan titles now. Surly is one of my appreciated clearing houses.

No one reputable is flashing red at the moment.

That lack of red flashing is a part of my general "I think I may have to step up and speak up".

We have all seen people flip out before...because they read a sensational con man and ran with it because of confirmation bias.
Surly's quip about the fiat bonfire, that is just fundamentals. That is enough to freak out newbies "and marks" but not me.

I'm seeing.....I'm not totally sure how to articulate this.....A sturdy bridge with dozens of erosional under footings. Not sure the minor thing that is going to go.

The circus barker in chief is playing "Fake it till you make it"... but the emperors new cloths is about to put his unprotected dick in the fan. The fan wins.

Now back in 2007, we was at the tops of histories great ponsi schemes. Fake wealth for the people patsies. Those people didnt stabilize before part two. No more excess wealth to  absorb the next bounce. You can no longer sell your Harley, boat and mistress to absorb this.

People lost their house and job last time. How much deeper this time when they collectively had less to lose... and it happens at a much lower stress/ happenstance level because there was much less of a distance to fall.

There is no, "Its the derivatives stupid" this time. Its something else. 100 something elses. Stock market crashcorection, smaller oilcrash price rise, trade trust backlash, loss of a psychopath allies off their meds,  Brutus and a dozen knives, taliban celts, picts and germains. Death by 100 cuts at the rocks under that sturdy bridge, crumblin. Dont know what pebble goes.... its all gravel and we got used to gravel

I understand that that cute rant is not helpfull in providing a a good graph chart to show impressive highs or lows....

Its only instinct as to the timing.... which is why I am sort of queezy to put the C5 name brand behind it.

But I am not here to pull a trump and suck myself off. I do this to try and be helpful

That is my dilemma.   If I give advice, I want it to be helpful advice... and i am following instinct this time.

I think I will grab another beer
 
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: RE on October 13, 2018, 07:30:50 PM

But I am not here to pull a trump and suck myself off. I do this to try and be helpful

That is my dilemma.   If I give advice, I want it to be helpful advice... and i am following instinct this time.

I think I will grab another beer
 

That is the goal of any reputable Diner.  Be Helpful.

It is however a crapshoot to be too definitive about timelines.  You can see the trends, but when it will break exactly is quite hard to determine.

You have to go with your gut on this.  If you go All In and make a hard prediction and it turns out right, you will be lauded as a certifiable Collapse Genius.  If you get it wrong, you get lumped in with Kunstler and everyone else who made hard predictions which didn't pan out.

Only you can decide which way to go on this.

RE
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Nearingsfault on October 13, 2018, 07:32:49 PM
Oh its there all right in the zeitgeist... In my area we watch the city people over leveraged on their Toronto homes (just as the shine is coming off that market) use their paper wealth to secure mortgages on historically sky high priced cottages they cannot actually afford. I'm just annoyed with it all. I've watched  the dirty bankster tricks for the last decade knowing they were punishing me for saving, being told non stop to slow down low interest home payments and invest heavily in the stock market, watching as time after time they financially rescue the most stupid amongst us and erode purchasing power and sink my kids in ever more debt... The tide is turning with interest rate hikes so maybe this time I'm not the chicken little guy at the party...
Adult beverages here too.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: cernunnos5 on October 13, 2018, 09:14:55 PM
Thanks guys. I have fleshed out articles here before... encase you have heard me repeating myself.

one last story of the day...for evaluation....from the collective wisdom like a good anarchist.

When getting my beer... I topped the civic  And an empty 20ltr gas can from my fuel storage as part of my rotational fuel way of doing things. The price was shocking.

gas here is 1.27-plus at the moment. Sucks to buy gas at the top end... but I wanted to stay topped, MrsC5 pointed out we need to rotate our gas storage into our vehicle soon. I totally agree. I try to do every  6 months. We are at the 8-9th month. Bad timing... but it is why we do this. I pointed out to MrsC5 things to add into the decision. Gulf shut downs because of the hurricanes pushing speculative prices. We had a recent explosion at the at the NB Irving refinery. Local production. BC had a pipeline explosion recently to the states but BCers were asked to reduce their energy usage. Add the Iran thing...and now the Saudi thing...and we're set for the next commodities crash.

After filling, I spouted to the ignorant, minimum wage cashier (bad me) that it was only 1.35 (8 c higher) when the last commodities crash happened. Some spanky guys in a newer SUV chimed in. "When that happened, oil was 150 a barrel" (they were wrong but I wont quibble) 73$ dollars a barrel lately so some one is lining...

Good point...but I started to think it through.

When the suburb schmucks got flattened, it was 150  a barrel. If they are getting flattened... at half the price...that means...people are half as resilient now....thus, it only takes 80$ to crash the economy

cant communicate this better. passing out...about now

I really want to expand on that 
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Eddie on October 13, 2018, 09:16:31 PM
I've been out of the markets since the first of the  year. A quick visit to my favorite sites gave me two quick insights.

The stock market is not yet technically broken and could easily rally from here.

The US dollar which recently hit what my cycles guru thought was a long term bottom, might be on the verge of breaking down. If it does continue to break down over the next few weeks, it might the beginning of a multi-year downtrend.

What everyone knows will happen frequently doesn't.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Nearingsfault on October 13, 2018, 10:18:09 PM
Thanks guys. I have fleshed out articles here before... encase you have heard me repeating myself.

one last story of the day...for evaluation....from the collective wisdom like a good anarchist.

When getting my beer... I topped the civic  And an empty 20ltr gas can from my fuel storage as part of my rotational fuel way of doing things. The price was shocking.

gas here is 1.27-plus at the moment. Sucks to buy gas at the top end... but I wanted to stay topped, MrsC5 pointed out we need to rotate our gas storage into our vehicle soon. I totally agree. I try to do every  6 months. We are at the 8-9th month. Bad timing... but it is why we do this. I pointed out to MrsC5 things to add into the decision. Gulf shut downs because of the hurricanes pushing speculative prices. We had a recent explosion at the at the NB Irving refinery. Local production. BC had a pipeline explosion recently to the states but BCers were asked to reduce their energy usage. Add the Iran thing...and now the Saudi thing...and we're set for the next commodities crash.

After filling, I spouted to the ignorant, minimum wage cashier (bad me) that it was only 1.35 (8 c higher) when the last commodities crash happened. Some spanky guys in a newer SUV chimed in. "When that happened, oil was 150 a barrel" (they were wrong but I wont quibble) 73$ dollars a barrel lately so some one is lining...

Good point...but I started to think it through.

When the suburb schmucks got flattened, it was 150  a barrel. If they are getting flattened... at half the price...that means...people are half as resilient now....thus, it only takes 80$ to crash the economy

cant communicate this better. passing out...about now

I really want to expand on that
The owner of the company I do work for put in a double walled gas tank  with pump at his house. He is shaving $.20 per litre off retail. The company has a fuel hungry econoline and his f150 so he goes through a lot. He'll pay for the tank in a year of savings...
I think of gas as a finished consumer product and oil as a raw material. when the market tanked in 08 oil was still expensive. but gas became cheap. Its price dropped much faster then oil because discretionary spending dropped like a rock.  I am out of my comfort zone on economics but gas is priced at what the market can bear with lots of room to move up or down much more so then oil. I know I'm rejigging my life to cut fuel costs. I now only move my tool mover out of the driveway if dollars are coming in and every second on the road is paid time. No more free trips in or only paid one way. I negotiated my rates that way on purpose. I will do trips in to meet potential clients on a case by case basis and I pre qualify them much more before committing to that then I used to. For backup I only store 75 litres of gas but I have the 400l propane tank and I calculated 10 gallons of gas equivalent of charcoal on hand which works out to almost 100 gallons of char... That just runs the atv, tractor or one of the generators though its not for road transport.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: K-Dog on October 14, 2018, 10:59:41 AM
If you get it wrong, you get lumped in with Kunstler and everyone else who made hard predictions which didn't pan out.

The problem is that Kunstler has the 18th century in his head.  Back then the scientific consensus was that the universe was like a big watch.  Totally mechanistic and predictable the universe runs on rules that can't be broken.  Then came Quantum Mechanics, Einstein and uncertainty.  The universe was seen to be more complicated than previously thought.  The rules still can't be broken but some of them turn out to be strange.

Two days ago I wrote this at Kunstler's place:

Quote
So todays article,

The theme seems to be that there is a national obsession with trivia and that because of this, just desserts are just around the corner. Like the band on the Titanic playing on or something like that, but not quite like that really.

On the Titanic an area about the size of a house door was letting in water in and the passengers were doomed. There was no way around it, and the band played on. America too is doomed but there is a difference. A big difference. Our doom is by total choice. It would not have to be inevitable but certain individuals set things in motion so that it is.

Yet the time of our demise is not tied to an edict of cosmic justice as JHK predicts. Or perhaps it is:

Consider the death warrant of Georgia:

The court shall specify the time period for the execution in the sentence. The time period for the execution fixed by the court shall be seven days in duration and shall commence at noon on a specified date and shall end at noon on a specified date. The time period shall commence not less than 20 days nor more than 60 days from the date of sentencing. A new time period for the execution -due to stay- fixed by the judge shall commence not less than ten nor more than 20 days from the date of the order.

Plenty of wiggle room to do the deed at a random time in a specified time interval. Such wiggle room is in all death warrants.

So the crash of the American economy will happen not less than 20 months from the start of the term of the great golden one and not more than 60 months from his first inauguration Ill say.

Nobody gets to know exactly when. That includes JHK.

Last week I pissed him off so much he wrote back.


JHK has disgust for our national obsession with trivia and that because of that he believes just desserts are just around the corner.

And according to McPherson who has a very strange relationship with reality we should all be Venusians by now.

What's the truth?

The truth according to K-Dog is that collapse is not going to be a single identifiable event that puts us in the middle of a dystopian novel.  Collapse ultimately becomes the fate of individuals and we all have different fates.  Eventually people will starve to death in America, and for many life will become nasty brutish and short.  But this will not happen to everybody and not all at the same time to those it does.  That it be a minority of people or a majority is irrelevant.  That is only a number.  The point I wish to make is that those who suffer merely 'disappear' but civilization limps on.  National Guardsmen shooting looters will be civilization limping on.  Latifundiumi run by prison labor will also be civilization limping on.  Some have already starved and you did not notice.

Collapse has been going on for years.  After the crash in 2008 I did not get hit by it right away.  I had a contract so my job was secure until the end of my contract and then I did not work for a few years until circumstances changed.  I 'recovered' but I realize not everybody did because I came close to fading away for all time myself.  Collapse is a game of musical chairs and if you are the one left standing up you collapse.

Victims of collapse don't get to play the game anymore.  That fact means the survivors will continue to play, and play, and play.  Survivors don't rewrite the rules of the game.  Only victims could do that so the music will play for a very long time and stop many times.  One man's collapse will not happen at the same time as another's.

Katrina,  the crash of 2008, name your disaster.  Collapse has been with us for a long time and if it continues as it has we will have Archdruids ridiculous 'catabolic collapse' concept where John Greer postulates a slow contraction which will defy all rules of mathematics and human nature.

Collapse in a 'doom' sense would mean serious interruption in the oil supply.  I see oil trains sending oil to export every day.  Oil if need be will be pumped at gunpoint while society adjusts and gets rid of excess flesh.  That flesh may well be ours but after we die the great game will go on without us.

Total collapse would mean we all die.  That is not going to happen.  For more likely will be that some find a way to profit from the demise of others.  Then they write history.

At some time something serious has to happen to cause a big die-off.  That is as sure as two plus two is four.  But knowing when will be impossible to predict.  Too many variables.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: cernunnos5 on October 16, 2018, 07:36:38 PM
Youtube is down at the moment. Hopefully it is a crash and not a shutdown to hide something.

In the mean time....

I had a phone call with Farmgal today.

It lead to me doing a quick write up over at Permies.com  (They really did me well on the windapult, bringing thousands of viewers and hundreds of readers to my site)
I thought I would plop the discusion up over here as well...to give you something to argue about. LOL At permies, you have to be super nice.

https://permies.com/t/94146/Apocalyptic-Survival-Advice
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: RE on October 16, 2018, 07:55:55 PM
Youtube is down at the moment. Hopefully it is a crash and not a shutdown to hide something.

In the mean time....

I had a phone call with Farmgal today.

It lead to me doing a quick write up over at Permies.com  (They really did me well on the windapult, bringing thousands of viewers and hundreds of readers to my site)
I thought I would plop the discusion up over here as well...to give you something to argue about. LOL At permies, you have to be super nice.

https://permies.com/t/94146/Apocalyptic-Survival-Advice

Quote from: C5
Prepping is dead. Long live prepping. It failed. Good riddance. What the world really needs is an ADAPTERS MOVEMENT.

I don't think prepping has "failed".  I'm a prepper.  It's about the time frame you are looking at for survival.  My time frame is about a decade at the outside.  I can lay in enough preps to last me a decade without ever having to go out and bust my crippled ass growing anything or putting in any fence posts either.  I can do it cheaper than it costs to run a Doomstead also, even if I was fortunate enough to get one for free like you did.  So WTF would I go out and spend every day busting my ass building stuff (assuming my miraculous recovery goes further here) when by prepping up I can do a better job of insuring my survival at a cheaper price with less work?  ???   :icon_scratch:

RE
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Nearingsfault on October 16, 2018, 08:28:41 PM
permie threads are so nice... I like the Adapter movement title. I thought of the "no movement movement" as my way of explaining most of what is wrong in the world...
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: jdwheeler42 on October 16, 2018, 11:15:49 PM
permie threads are so nice... I like the Adapter movement title. I thought of the "no movement movement" as my way of explaining most of what is wrong in the world...
I got a meme for that... I don't think I have inflicted it on you...  :icon_mrgreen:
(https://i.imgflip.com/19vvof.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/19vvof)
via Imgflip Meme Generator (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)

And naturally, I consider you to be "doing the right sort of nothing".
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Surly1 on October 17, 2018, 03:52:21 AM
permie threads are so nice... I like the Adapter movement title. I thought of the "no movement movement" as my way of explaining most of what is wrong in the world...

It's a really nice site. I'm surprised I haven't spent time there.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Eddie on October 17, 2018, 08:12:37 AM
The truth according to K-Dog is that collapse is not going to be a single identifiable event that puts us in the middle of a dystopian novel.  Collapse ultimately becomes the fate of individuals and we all have different fates.  Eventually people will starve to death in America, and for many life will become nasty brutish and short.  But this will not happen to everybody and not all at the same time to those it does.  That it be a minority of people or a majority is irrelevant.  That is only a number.  The point I wish to make is that those who suffer merely 'disappear' but civilization limps on.  National Guardsmen shooting looters will be civilization limping on.  Latifundiumi run by prison labor will also be civilization limping on.  Some have already starved and you did not notice.

Collapse has been going on for years.  After the crash in 2008 I did not get hit by it right away.  I had a contract so my job was secure until the end of my contract and then I did not work for a few years until circumstances changed.  I 'recovered' but I realize not everybody did because I came close to fading away for all time myself.  Collapse is a game of musical chairs and if you are the one left standing up you collapse.

Victims of collapse don't get to play the game anymore.  That fact means the survivors will continue to play, and play, and play.  Survivors don't rewrite the rules of the game.  Only victims could do that so the music will play for a very long time and stop many times.  One man's collapse will not happen at the same time as another's.

Katrina,  the crash of 2008, name your disaster.  Collapse has been with us for a long time and if it continues as it has we will have Archdruids ridiculous 'catabolic collapse' concept where John Greer postulates a slow contraction which will defy all rules of mathematics and human nature.

Collapse in a 'doom' sense would mean serious interruption in the oil supply.  I see oil trains sending oil to export every day.  Oil if need be will be pumped at gunpoint while society adjusts and gets rid of excess flesh.  That flesh may well be ours but after we die the great game will go on without us.

Total collapse would mean we all die.  That is not going to happen.  For more likely will be that some find a way to profit from the demise of others.  Then they write history.

At some time something serious has to happen to cause a big die-off.  That is as sure as two plus two is four.  But knowing when will be impossible to predict.  Too many variables.


Fairly profound, there Dog. I agree, and so many doomers don't get this. Just the old ones, LOL.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Golden Oxen on October 17, 2018, 08:20:38 AM
The truth according to K-Dog is that collapse is not going to be a single identifiable event that puts us in the middle of a dystopian novel.  Collapse ultimately becomes the fate of individuals and we all have different fates.  Eventually people will starve to death in America, and for many life will become nasty brutish and short.  But this will not happen to everybody and not all at the same time to those it does.  That it be a minority of people or a majority is irrelevant.  That is only a number.  The point I wish to make is that those who suffer merely 'disappear' but civilization limps on.  National Guardsmen shooting looters will be civilization limping on.  Latifundiumi run by prison labor will also be civilization limping on.  Some have already starved and you did not notice.

Collapse has been going on for years.  After the crash in 2008 I did not get hit by it right away.  I had a contract so my job was secure until the end of my contract and then I did not work for a few years until circumstances changed.  I 'recovered' but I realize not everybody did because I came close to fading away for all time myself.  Collapse is a game of musical chairs and if you are the one left standing up you collapse.

Victims of collapse don't get to play the game anymore.  That fact means the survivors will continue to play, and play, and play.  Survivors don't rewrite the rules of the game.  Only victims could do that so the music will play for a very long time and stop many times.  One man's collapse will not happen at the same time as another's.

Katrina,  the crash of 2008, name your disaster.  Collapse has been with us for a long time and if it continues as it has we will have Archdruids ridiculous 'catabolic collapse' concept where John Greer postulates a slow contraction which will defy all rules of mathematics and human nature.

Collapse in a 'doom' sense would mean serious interruption in the oil supply.  I see oil trains sending oil to export every day.  Oil if need be will be pumped at gunpoint while society adjusts and gets rid of excess flesh.  That flesh may well be ours but after we die the great game will go on without us.

Total collapse would mean we all die.  That is not going to happen.  For more likely will be that some find a way to profit from the demise of others.  Then they write history.

At some time something serious has to happen to cause a big die-off.  That is as sure as two plus two is four.  But knowing when will be impossible to predict.  Too many variables.


Fairly profound, there Dog. I agree, and so many doomers don't get this. Just the old ones, LOL.

Only wish to second Eddie's comment. Certainly appears reasonable and very well thought out and expressed.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: cernunnos5 on October 20, 2018, 07:17:28 PM
OK. Here we go fellows.
If You want something to worry about, This is it.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/leveraged-loans-cov-lite-central-banks-2018-10 (https://www.businessinsider.com.au/leveraged-loans-cov-lite-central-banks-2018-10)

"If you want to worry about something this is it: Central banks and investors are sounding the alarm on a corner of the debt market that's suddenly over $US1 trillion in size"

Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Nearingsfault on October 20, 2018, 07:56:28 PM
OK. Here we go fellows.
If You want something to worry about, This is it.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/leveraged-loans-cov-lite-central-banks-2018-10 (https://www.businessinsider.com.au/leveraged-loans-cov-lite-central-banks-2018-10)

"If you want to worry about something this is it: Central banks and investors are sounding the alarm on a corner of the debt market that's suddenly over $US1 trillion in size"
Interesting and depressing, and on that note its off to bed I go...
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Surly1 on October 21, 2018, 02:57:01 AM
OK. Here we go fellows.
If You want something to worry about, This is it.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/leveraged-loans-cov-lite-central-banks-2018-10 (https://www.businessinsider.com.au/leveraged-loans-cov-lite-central-banks-2018-10)

"If you want to worry about something this is it: Central banks and investors are sounding the alarm on a corner of the debt market that's suddenly over $US1 trillion in size"

And:
When you have no covenants, I can take cash and distribute it all out. I can sell the assets of the company and you as a debt holder are holding the bag.

What could possible go wrong?

When this happens in the US, we socialize the losses and make the proles many for the casino losses. Or fraud, if you prefer.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Eddie on October 21, 2018, 10:28:08 AM
I get emails from those vampires every day. No experienced legitimate businessman would borrow money at 20% when prime is 5.25%. They prey on those who are shut out of the conventional lending process. The young, the hopeful, the ones who think they're going to make so much money they can pay back anything.  The ones who haven't spent years struggling to pay off a note.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: cernunnos5 on October 21, 2018, 07:20:25 PM
EXTRA! EXTRA! Read all about it!

maybe not so much.... but my next one is up.

Make Canada Great Briton Again
https://darkgreenmountainsurvivalresearchcentre.wordpress.com/2018/10/22/make-canada-great-briton-again/

Does this count as cana'duh election interference?   
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Eddie on October 22, 2018, 07:45:15 AM
E. Roy Who? LOL.

Nice work as usual. Nice veggies, too. When things dry up, I'm going to plow the pig pen and plant something for a winter garden.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: cernunnos5 on October 22, 2018, 11:24:54 AM
E. Roy Who? LOL.

Nice work as usual. Nice veggies, too. When things dry up, I'm going to plow the pig pen and plant something for a winter garden.
Oh good. Its not just me. There is just something about EROEI that is a tong twister. Each time i verbally say ER...and then my mind goes blank...M..O..U.S.E.

Also, your pig compost may still be to "Hot" at this point. You may have to wait for it to compost more or amend it with a bit of wood ash. If plants seem stunted or burned, you know whats happening. We certainly over fertilized a few things this year.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Eddie on October 22, 2018, 11:37:30 AM
No need for wood ash here. The limestone makes the soil here so permanently alkaline that it can't be truly amended, even. But I do understand the need to let the manure compost. I'll probably plow it under and wait a year to plant there.

My garden at the main rez is all raised beds, which is what most people do here. But I want to start planting big plots as an exercise, because the square foot guys exaggerate (imho) about how great that system is. I still see a need for row crop gardens. Permies mostly aren't good enough to live off their food forests either, imho.

The best thing about raised beds here is that it lets you start with pre-fab soil and get the right pH, more or less. For that reason I actually bought a dump trailer, and I buy bulk soil. All my raised beds are started with soil that has the best amendments. I use this, and add compost every season.

http://www.ladybugbrand.com/our-products/soils/rose-magic/ (http://www.ladybugbrand.com/our-products/soils/rose-magic/)

I use pond liner to keep the limestone OUT now, after some experimentation....and it holds the water. I built a wicking bed to fool around that tech, but here it seems like the fancy drainage part is not needed, the soil dries up so fast. I use wood and cardboard for a water retaining layer on most of 'em now. Real wicking beds are very elegant, but I'm not sure you really need a big gravel filled reservoir, and it's expensive unless I use my free limestone gravel, which sort of defeats the whole purpose.

Ultimately the heat is the biggest enemy hereabouts. We have a winter season from December to  March, and a spring season from March until sometime in May. Summers are too damn hot to grow most veggies. I should get more involved in my experiments with passive cooling in the greenhouse and aquaculture, but I haven't gotten that far. I'm not as focused as you are.
Title: Re: The Doom Loop
Post by: Surly1 on October 23, 2018, 08:37:17 AM
EXTRA! EXTRA! Read all about it!

maybe not so much.... but my next one is up.

Make Canada Great Briton Again
https://darkgreenmountainsurvivalresearchcentre.wordpress.com/2018/10/22/make-canada-great-briton-again/

Does this count as cana'duh election interference?

Just catching up with this. Well done, as usual. found this of particular note, since it fits in so well with the decor here:

"The failing dams, falling bridges, potholed highways, undrinkable civic water and crumbling social cohesion... For just about the full length of my lifetime the Western world has only continued to grow by accounting fraud. It was subtle at first. Its less than subtle now. Now the pitchforky populi are rather miffed at the diminishing returns of their lives and they voted for the exact guy I figured they would. They always vote for a guy like that in times like these. Well, Caesar cant save you now.

No shit.

Also got a kick out of this harvest bounty:

(https://darkgreenmountainsurvivalresearchcentre.files.wordpress.com/2018/10/a-table.jpg?w=700)

Fuck you, big box grocery store and oil industry. Fuck you banking cartel and chemical industry. Fuck you, you fucking fucks.

Makes me feel like the next generation is in good hands.