“Wanderer, your footsteps are the road, and nothing more; wanderer, there is no road, the road is made by walking. By walking one makes the road, and upon glancing behind one sees the path that never will be trod again. Wanderer, there is no road-- Only wakes upon the sea.
Caminante, son tus huellas el camino, y nada más; caminante, no hay camino, se hace camino al andar. Al andar se hace camino, y al volver la vista atrás se ve la senda que nunca se ha de volver a pisar. Caminante, no hay camino, sino estelas en la mar.”
Antonio Machado
When it comes to "global warming" i would suggest that this interglacial is long in the tooth. The climate controling Northern Hemisphere insolation has been below the median for ~3000 years and we are about due for an ice age. Some NH glaciers may be retreating but most of them did not exist 4000 years ago. These climate cycles (ice age + interglacial) have been getting longer so it's hard to tell if current high CO2 is delaying this abit, but imo there is no way it can stop the cycle, (absent help from an unknown factor) no matter how many government control freaks say so. So i'm not worried about runaway warming.
Hello Snowleopard -QuoteWhen it comes to "global warming" i would suggest that this interglacial is long in the tooth. The climate controling Northern Hemisphere insolation has been below the median for ~3000 years and we are about due for an ice age. Some NH glaciers may be retreating but most of them did not exist 4000 years ago. These climate cycles (ice age + interglacial) have been getting longer so it's hard to tell if current high CO2 is delaying this abit, but imo there is no way it can stop the cycle, (absent help from an unknown factor) no matter how many government control freaks say so. So i'm not worried about runaway warming.
Interestingly, I had thought the same thing about the "long in the tooth" nature of the present interglacial -- and our probable near-future glacial phase. And I would not dismiss the thought. Trouble is, the next glacial period might not initiate at the moment you and I would most hope it would: about now. It might not happen for a hundred, five hundred... years or more. In which case Hansen's call for a 1-degree C upper limit target on global warming takes on quite another significance. The risk of ecosystemic / biospheric collapse is my worry. Not so much sea level rise. Or civilization. I just want us to have a diverse living planet in the future instead of a dead zone.
"Degrowth" is an English translation for a term some French people thunk up for it. It's become popular. Even though it may be an ugly word.
"Degrowth" is an English translation for a term some French people thunk up for it. It's become popular. Even though it may be an ugly word.
It's from French? No wonder it sucks. LOL.
RE
Growth is necessary so that more tycoons can become richer.
Without growth it is the deterministic, zero-sum struggle of tycoon vs. tycoon. We can't have that at all; no indeed!
In reality, growth is a fake, it is only the increase in notational unsecured debt. When economists like Roubini, Krugman, Soros, Bernanke, etc. cry for growth they are simply asking for more inflation. It makes me laugh. There hasn't been any real growth for a long time.
In the real world, where the expansionist dynamic is reversed; our capital is extinguished an inch at a time, we experience shrinkth instead of growth.
"Degrowth" is an English translation for a term some French people thunk up for it. It's become popular. Even though it may be an ugly word.
It's from French? No wonder it sucks. LOL.
RE
Really, RE?
What next, "Freedom fries?"
"Degrowth" is an English translation for a term some French people thunk up for it. It's become popular. Even though it may be an ugly word.
It's from French? No wonder it sucks. LOL.
RE
Really, RE?
What next, "Freedom fries?"
In the French Tradition, "Freedom is Surrender" :icon_mrgreen:(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-SekrVjD5lRA/TewO4S2PfWI/AAAAAAAAA1g/85mOGfSyuVE/s640/cartoon.gif)
RE
This from a guy whose neighbors have given a nation Princess Dumbass of the Northwoods.
This from a guy whose neighbors have given a nation Princess Dumbass of the Northwoods.
Yea, like VA Pols are such Bright Bulbs? At least Sara can shoot. :icon_sunny:(http://deniseduvernay.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/palin.jpg)
RE
This from a guy whose neighbors have given a nation Princess Dumbass of the Northwoods.
Yea, like VA Pols are such Bright Bulbs? At least Sara can shoot. :icon_sunny:(http://deniseduvernay.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/palin.jpg)
RE
Maybe she cant find france on a map but is still good at french. ;D
I think you misunderstand my concern. I'm not hoping for a new glacial phase. Glacial phases are quite deadly; for a sample one can check out the plagues, famines and wars associated with the "little ice age". A new glacial phase would be much worse.
This from a guy whose neighbors have given a nation Princess Dumbass of the Northwoods.
Yea, like VA Pols are such Bright Bulbs? At least Sara can shoot. :icon_sunny:(http://deniseduvernay.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/palin.jpg)
RE
We're talking about a woman who, during her brief 15 minutes of fame, could NOT name ONE newspaper that she read regularly. NOT ONE.
We're talking about a woman who, during her brief 15 minutes of fame, could NOT name ONE newspaper that she read regularly. NOT ONE.
What's so weird about that? I can't name any newspapers I read regularly either. :icon_scratch:
RE
We're talking about a woman who, during her brief 15 minutes of fame, could NOT name ONE newspaper that she read regularly. NOT ONE.
What's so weird about that? I can't name any newspapers I read regularly either. :icon_scratch:
RE
This from a guy whose neighbors have given a nation Princess Dumbass of the Northwoods.
Yea, like VA Pols are such Bright Bulbs? At least Sara can shoot. :icon_sunny:(http://deniseduvernay.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/palin.jpg)
RE
She can;t shoot as good as Cheney, though...
This from a guy whose neighbors have given a nation Princess Dumbass of the Northwoods.
Yea, like VA Pols are such Bright Bulbs? At least Sara can shoot. :icon_sunny:(http://deniseduvernay.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/palin.jpg)
RE
She can't shoot as good as Cheney, though...
How good a shot do you have to be to shoot a friend in the face with a shotgun?
I think you misunderstand my concern. I'm not hoping for a new glacial phase. Glacial phases are quite deadly; for a sample one can check out the plagues, famines and wars associated with the "little ice age". A new glacial phase would be much worse.
Hmm. I thought you were hoping that the beginning of the natural (glacial) cooling phase -- which in climate history has been a very slow process -- would coincide with the rapid warming now occurring as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. The idea being that the natural cooling would collide with the GHG caused warming, to the general benefit of all.
I think the slow onset of the glacial phase is well underway. It might have indeed moderated the recent warming some. And, if i'm correct, it will aggravate the coming cooling trend. The part that is unknown is: When does it start having a more noticible (deadly) impact? Sometimes that impact can happen rapidly, as various frozen mammoths suggest.
As for all of the other ecosystemic crises you mentioned, yes. We're in trouble even without adding climate catastrophe to the pile of troubles. Still, a couple of degrees C warming (since industrialism began) is probably enough to set in multiple self-reinforcing feedback loops leading to near total extinction of the biosphere (as we know it).
I do not think anthropogenic GHGs caused enough of the recent warming to make a significant difference. Certianly they have an effect, but i don't buy the theoretical positive feedbacks in climate models that can't be demonstrated to occur IRL. All of those models predicted more warming in the last decade than occurred.
More significant contributors to the recent warming were: Natural cyclical rebound from the "little ice age", which ended just as industrialism got going strong, the PDO / AMO warm phases, and a grand solar max. Likewise the recent heating stopped when the sun "crashed" toward minimum (not there yet) and the PDO moved to cool phase. The AMO has a longer cycle and has yet to switch. The next warm phase will not have these cycles together as long or a solar max to support it.
In any case, Snowleopard, I'm no longer clear why you mentioned the "long in the tooth" interglacial notion. But the climate science seems to suggest that anthropogenic forcing might effectively cook the planet before the current interglacial gives way. I'm not sure how you shrug that one off.
Most climate science positions today owe their existence to the so called "climate emergency". Thirty years ago there were barely more than a hundred such positions worldwide, today there are thousands. I would hardly expect them to suggest otherwise, as those who do so tend to have serious career challenges (unless they either have tenure or are retired). When their suggested outcomes diverged greatly from reality, i started to study the matter myself. I got aways to go yet. But if CO2 continues to increase while temperature stalls or decreases, even j6pk will figure out it is not in the driver seat.
Thats the believers perspective/explanation, Im interested in the denialists perspective.
[....] Certianly they have an effect, but i don't buy the theoretical positive feedbacks in climate models that can't be demonstrated to occur IRL.
SL
You seem very well informed on how many climate scientists there were before and are now and what their temp predictions have been . Im wondering why CSIRO, NASA etc would want to fudge data when the govts that fund them are so reluctant to take any action?
Im also wondering why every time I hear anything on the radio they talk about a range of temp increase for air and ocean and they always say that the warming is in the range expected. Are they lying? Last year was the hottest on record here, and new years day this year was expected 50C /122F, Even hotter, I didnt watch the news in the evening to see if it got there or not.
We are adding the heat released by the hiroshima and nagasaki bombs every second that passes acording to some counts.
Maybe its not that hot in your nabe because the earth is like a burst zit off of the sun that cooled down enough for the outside layer to solidify and theres no new molten magma being added to the earths core so its got nothing to do except keep cooling down. Maybe its the extreme weather the climate science conspiracy is lying about. If theyre collectively wrong I want to know how and why.
Thats the believers perspective/explanation, Im interested in the denialists perspective.
Remember, less than 5% of studies dispute AGW, and almost all of those are funded by those corporations who would lose out if people changed their way of living.
When sustainability becomes the most profitable option, then it will become the mass market dejure. Not until then, though.
[....] Certianly they have an effect, but i don't buy the theoretical positive feedbacks in climate models that can't be demonstrated to occur IRL.
So, for example, you don't believe in the ice-albedo feedback?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice-albedo_feedback (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice-albedo_feedback)
Doesn't it just make common sense to you that dark blue water will absorb more heat from the sun than reflective, white ice sheets?
http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/689573main1_MinSeaIce_20120916-670.jpg (http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/689573main1_MinSeaIce_20120916-670.jpg)
I believe the data supports the idea that the climate in general in warming. I'm not convinced is is entirely humanity's fault. I'm willing to consider an explanation of the underlying cause that ranges from, 'humanity is having a negligible impact' though to 'we would have been in an ice age by now, instead we're going the other way'.
I don't care who is to blame. I care about:
1. What will the effects be?
2. What mitigating actions can we take?
Far more interesting questions, and it avoids the political aspect. My point was that AGW as a fact is only disputed by a corporately-funded few. Denialism is pointless, as is finger-pointing. We need to concentrate on what to expect and what to do.
We need to concentrate on what to expect and what to do.
I'm asking myself do i really want to cut, split and stack this much firewood (or more) each year? Similar question about snow removal effort. Heating livestock water. Shorter growing seasons, etc.
I'm asking myself do i really want to cut, split and stack this much firewood (or more) each year? Similar question about snow removal effort. Heating livestock water. Shorter growing seasons, etc.
I'm asking myself do i really want to cut, split and stack this much firewood (or more) each year? Similar question about snow removal effort. Heating livestock water. Shorter growing seasons, etc.
Top of our thoughts when considering Maine as a destination. Climate instability is a bitch to plan for.