Doomstead Diner Menu => Geopolitics => Topic started by: RE on March 02, 2014, 01:08:05 AM

Title: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: RE on March 02, 2014, 01:08:05 AM

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on March 2, 2014



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The Frosbite Falls Daily Rant is the latest Feature of the Collapse Cafe on the Doomstead Diner.  It can be found daily on the Homepage of the Diner on the right menu bar.


The transcript for this rant can be found at the bottom of this article.


Day 2 has arrived here in the Valve War between Ukraine and Russia, centered mainly in Crimea at the moment, but bound to move Eastward as time goes by here.  I covered a few of the main issues in the daily rant yesterday, for today we will look a little more closely at the logistics involved here.


As you can see from the Infographic at the top of the page, this isn’t a small military exercise by any means.  More than 10,000 troops are being repositioned, which is quite a tidy sum considering the Ruskies were downsizing their Military.









2008 Russian military reform


(H/T Newzy Joe on the Diner for this table)


While the Ruskie military is still pretty large, you have to remember that all “active personnel” are not “Boots on the Ground” aka Grunts who do the dirty work and get regularly sent to the Great Beyond in one of these actions.  So Vlad is committing quite a large percentage of what is left of his military assets to try and take control of Ukraine.


While the mostly Russian speaking eastern Ukrainians are mostly lined up with Vlad, even they don’t necessarily want to become a vassal state of Russia again.  They only got out from under the old USSR hegemony 20 years ago!  The Western half of the population definitely isn’t too happy about this state of affairs, so you basically have now a War in all but official declaration, and even that gets closer all the time.


NATO and Obama-sama still haven’t done anything but bluster, and it is unlikely they will do much on the military end at this time.  The NATO countries don’t have that many troops they can call up at the drop of a hat (or bomb), and most available FSoA military assets are currently deployed far and wide at a bazillion global Military bases as well as being mired down in places like Afghanistan.


However, just because they don’t have military assets to throw at this problem doesn’t make them helpless, they do have financial ones.  Accelerating Capital Flight out of both Ukraine and Russia can do a lot more damage to Vlad the Impaler’s political control than a Firefight in Sevastopol.  So this is probably where we have to look for the Action to be next week from the NATO/western Illuminati end.


http://www.downloadswallpapers.com/wallpapers/2012/agosto/medio/navios-e-naves-no-oceano-wallpaper-21713.jpgLogistically speaking, all the “Big Power” Militaries of the Ruskies, the Chinese and the FSoA are over-extended past what they can actually support anymore to try and control far flung regions of the earth.  The Chinese are buying up African Land and Oz Mines, but they need their own Million Man Army right at home to keep control.  The Ruskies have the same problem, their last failed adventure outside of their own region in Afghanistan was  a magnificent failure, and subsequent adventures inside their sphere have not faired much better.  All their border states like Georgia are contantly in virtul revolt; just keeping the lid on there stretches them pretty thin.  For the FSoA part, we send Carrier Groups willy-nilly around the world as a “show of force” in each latest Hotspot, but we only got like 11 or so of these Carrier Groups I believe.  Drop a couple in the Mediterranean, a couple in the Indian Ocean, a couple in the South China Sea, a couple in the North Atlantic, a couple off the coast of Brasil and one in the Gulf of Mejico and POOF, you are frehs OUT of Carrier Groups!  Not to mention all a Carrier Group does at best is to allow you to control the local Sea Lanes and drop Death From Above on the nearby locals, they don’t allow you to put enough Boots on the ground in ANY of these places to do much more than take over a few Goobermint Buildings in the central city, for that you gotta mobilize a lot of troops ships, land tanks and APC yadda yadda.


In all likelihood at this point, it appears that the “Powerful” Goombermints and Militaries of Russia, china and the FSoA will soon be engaged much more in keeping their own Local Populations in control, so trying to control anywhere else is pretty much a non-starter.  Ukraine is close enough physically to Russia with enough traditional ties they can make this physical attempt one more time, but they will face a constant state of revolt inside Ukraine, just like Georgia and the rest of the peripheral states now really starting to hurt.


The problems in Ukraine will move themselves quickly enough to Poland, Hungary, Belarus etc, and the Western European states will see Blowback as Gazprom energy gets shut off at critical Valves through Central Europe.  This further roils the markets and their economies, already very shaky to begin with, so they too will begin to topple.


Building up this whole interconnected Global system has been ongoing for 500 years here.  It will come apart a whole lot quicker than that.  The World Trade Center is the best analogy I can come up with here.  The project had it’s inception right near the end of WWII in 1943, took until the 60s to get funding, and didn’t open up until 1973.


The idea of establishing a World Trade Center in New York City was first proposed in 1943. The New York State Legislature passed a bill authorizing New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey to begin developing plans for the project[11] but the plans were put on hold in 1949.[12] During the late 1940s and 1950s, economic growth in New York City was concentrated in Midtown Manhattan. To help stimulate urban renewal in Lower Manhattan, David Rockefeller suggested that the Port Authority build a World Trade Center in Lower Manhattan.[13]


Initial plans, made public in 1961, identified a site along the East River for the World Trade Center.[14] As a bi-state agency, the Port Authority required approval for new projects from the governors of both New York and New Jersey. New Jersey Governor Robert B. Meyner objected to New York getting a $335 million project.[15] Toward the end of 1961, negotiations with outgoing New Jersey Governor Meyner reached a stalemate.[16]


At the time, ridership on New Jersey’s Hudson and Manhattan Railroad (H&M) had declined substantially from a high of 113 million riders in 1927 to 26 million in 1958 after new automobile tunnels and bridges had opened across the Hudson River.[17] In a December 1961 meeting between Port Authority director Austin J. Tobin and newly elected New Jersey Governor Richard J. Hughes, the Port Authority offered to take over the Hudson & Manhattan Railroad to have it become the Port Authority Trans-Hudson (PATH). The Port Authority also decided to move the World Trade Center project to the Hudson Terminal building site on the west side of Lower Manhattan, a more convenient location for New Jersey commuters arriving via PATH.[16] With the new location and Port Authority acquisition of the H&M Railroad, New Jersey agreed to support the World Trade Center project.[18]




A good 20-30 years to get those buildings up.  They came down in seconds.  So it will go with this as well, when it Blows, it will Blow Big and it will Blow Fast.  In the words of Leonard Cohen,



Everybody knows it’s coming apart

Take one last look at this Sacred Heart

Before it blows

And everybody knows











Transcript of the Ukraine-Russia War Rant


Greetings Doomfans, and welcome to another edition of the Frosbite Falls Daily Rant.


Tonight we are revisiting a topic from a few nights ago, the ongoing spinout in Ukraine. A few nights ago it was a Civil War in progress, tonight it is a WORLD WAR in the making.


Reason? Vlad the Impaler, the Noble ex-head of the KGB over in Ruskieville decided since he could not or would not Pony Up $35-50B in FOREX scratch the Ukrainians need to keep their version of the Industrial Society running, the better option was simply to roll over them with APCs, Helicopters and Troop ships!


On the NATO side of this battle, John Kerry offered up chump change of $1B in loans from the sharks at the IMF, which barely could keep an Oligarch in Maseratis and Airbus Double Decker Private Jets for a week or two, much less pay off on Pensions to the Ukrainian Population.


Why does EITHER side here give a Flying Fuck who is wandering the halls of the Ukrainian Parliament and running the show there? Why not just leave them alone and let them work out their OWN fucking problems?


Two main reasons. First off, Ukraine has a shit load of pipelines running across the territory which ship Gazprom Energy from Mother Russia over to Western Europe, which is a MAJOR source of FOREX revenue for the Ruskie Oligarchs, including of course Vlad the Impaler.


Second reason is Ukraine is (like everybody else) in HUGE debt to the TBTF banks, and if they don’t get some new Hard Currency FOREX Scratch to roll over their old loans, they will default. This will play nasty HAVOC with the Russian banks, which have the biggest exposure, but of course all the TBTF banks in the West are exposed to this mess also in the Daisy Chain Circle Jerk of derivatives, interbank loans and Worthless Collateral they used to rehypothecate still other loans made elsewhere. If anybody here on either side has to write down Ukrainian debt, the TBTF banks will have to pay a LOT of Overtime to their Accountants so they can cover it up and not be blatantly Insolvent, just Shadow Insolvent.


For their own part, the Ukrainians hold one Ace in the Hole, they actually have their fingers on the valves that transit NG over from Mother Russia to Eurotrash. If SOMEBODY doesn’t pony up some more money for them to keep going here, the average J6P Ukrainian has NOTHING LEFT TO LOSE, so why not blow a few Pipelines and pass the Suffering on to the folks to the West and East of them? They shut down the pipelines, the Eurotrash runs short on energy to keep the Lights on, and the ruskies run short of Forex to keep the Rouble floating as a Happy Currency. Everybody suffers with them!


Herein lies the big PROBLEM with Vlad the Impaler’s physical takeover of the apparatus of Goobermint in Ukraine, the Western interests don’t necessarily have to retaliate with rolling their own APCs and Helicopter Gunships into Ukraine on a UN Sponsored “Peacekeeping” Mission, they can simply mount a concerted Financial Attack on the Rouble. Putin’s Goobermint already has plenty of issues maintaining control over the pretty vast Ruskie territory (even though shrunk from the Lacyon days Back in the USSR), if the Rouble gets driven down in FOREX trade and they can’t sell NG to Western Europe, their own economy will flush down the toilet in a big hurry.


For the Ruskies to take control of this problem on the Physical Level, they have to control the ENTIRE transit of Energy from the Ruskie Gas Fields across to the Eurotrash Konsumers of that energy, and they cannot do that simply by holding Crimea, which they also can’t do with a few 1000 Shock Troops. All that enables them to do is hold a few Goobermint Buildings and install some Puppet Leaders there. They have to roll across the WHOLE of Ukraine, and they have to not only prop up Puppet Leaders in Goobermint, they have to keep the local VERY unhappy population from dropping a few IEDs at critical nodes in the NG pipeline transport system. That will take a LOT more boots on the ground to do, and it is highly questionable that Vlad the Impaler could bring such a force to bear. Very similar to NATO trying to control the energy transit down in MENA with so many of the locals hostile to them.


It remains to be seen how this will play out medium to long term, and in what manner. However, both sides are between a Rock & a Hard Place. Under no circumstances can I see will the Energy flow through Ukraine continue Unimpeded. This will negatively affect all of Europe and Russia too. Neither side can back down here, so escalation seems likely. Duck and cover Doomers, we are now at DefCon Orange.


And that’s all the Doom, this time until next time here on the Frostbite Falls Daily Rant.



 


Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: Surly1 on March 02, 2014, 05:09:58 AM
Russia vs Ukraine: The Infographic "Tale of the Tape" (http://ow.ly/u9crf)

Curious how Ukraine, which with its population of 44 million and size of 603,628 square km makes it the largest single country entirely in Europe, stacks up against Russia? The following infographic should answer some questions regarding the (im)balance of power.

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/02/Russia-v-Ukraine.jpg)

And as a follow up, here is a map showing the location of the various sites of the Russian Navy in the Crimea. These will be the first sites to see a surge in Russian troop presence.

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/02/Crimea%20Russian%20Navy%20locations_0.jpg)
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: Petty Tyrant on March 02, 2014, 05:25:16 AM
What is missing in those stats is wheat and food production, which we know from history that the rest of russia does not make enough to compensate for that region going offline in previous scorched earth campaigns through there eg napoleon, hitler, and millions of russians starve without the produce.
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: Surly1 on March 02, 2014, 06:39:10 AM
Good point.
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: WHD on March 02, 2014, 06:51:20 AM
WWIII?

It was always coming, one way or another, wasn't it? About oil, about water, about finance, about war pigs comparing ball size.

Western countries attack the Rubel, Vlad cuts off Nat Gas, Europe goes dark and cold, late winter.

It's hard to imagine Americans getting serious about the idea of fighting the Ruskies. But then, it hardly matters anymore, what the people think, so divorced are TPTB from the daily goings on of the typical citizen.

I have no desire to kill Russians, Chinese, or anyone else. Have your global war. I'll tend to my fruit trees, gardens; heal the wounded.

WHD   

Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: Surly1 on March 02, 2014, 08:14:56 AM
WWIII?

It was always coming, one way or another, wasn't it? About oil, about water, about finance, about war pigs comparing ball size.

Western countries attack the Rubel, Vlad cuts off Nat Gas, Europe goes dark and cold, late winter.

It's hard to imagine Americans getting serious about the idea of fighting the Ruskies. But then, it hardly matters anymore, what the people think, so divorced are TPTB from the daily goings on of the typical citizen.

I have no desire to kill Russians, Chinese, or anyone else. Have your global war. I'll tend to my fruit trees, gardens; heal the wounded.

WHD

It probably was/is. It's 100 years after 1914, so now is as good a time as any.

Given that we are people constantly in a rush and on a deadline, we lose track of the great sweep of history. Events in the Crimea can well be seen as intermediate-term fallout from the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, a process still unfolding. It can even be seen as fallout from the Crimean War of the mid-19th century and the breakup of the Ottoman Empire. Juan Cole-- 

A New Crimean War? (Update: Stuff’s Getting Real) (http://www.juancole.com/2014/03/crimean-war-update.html)
By Juan Cole | Mar. 2, 2014

Tensions have continued to build in Ukraine’s Crimea since I wrote about it a few days ago.

On Saturday, The Russian parliament authorized President Valdimir Putin to send troops into Ukraine to defend Russian Interests. . A pro,-Russian premier has been installed in the Crimean autonomous region, who may call a referendum on seceding from Ukraine and joining Russia.

On Friday, shadowy armed men, apparently pro-Russian, began patrolling Crimea’s airports .The interim Ukraine government, meanwhile, is charging that Russian troops are trying to take control of the peninsula (where ethnic Russians now predominate, though it had earlier been a Turkic, Muslim area).

I had written:
Quote
The Russian-speaking population of the Crimean Peninsula in the Ukraine is upset by the popular movement in the west of the country that has overthrown president Viktor Yanukovych and is said to be forming militias. On some government buildings, Ukrainian flags have been replaced by Russian ones. Sevastopol is an important Black Sea port of call for Russian naval vessels, and Moscow has a base there.
Of all the ways in which Russian President Vladimir Putin will see the revolution in the Ukraine as dangerous to Russian interests, the potential loss of Crimea as a Russian ‘near abroad’ is among the more serious. Crimea was given to the Soviet Socialist Republic of Ukraine by Nikita Krushchev (himself Ukrainian) in the 1950s, but more Russians think they have a claim on Crimea than think they have a claim on Chechnya.
US national security adviser Susan Rice has already warned Russia against sending troops into the Ukraine. But what about the sailors at the base in Crimea? They’re already there.

From about 1050 Crimea came under Turkic rule, later Mongol, and later Turkic again. From 1441 until the late 1700s it was a Muslim Khanate that became an Ottoman vassal state. In the late 1700s it was annexed by the Tsarist Russian Empire. By 1900 Crimean Tatars, previously the major population, had been reduced to half of residents. After the Soviet revolution they were reduced to a quarter. Then Stalin forcibly deported many of them to Central Asia. So Crimea was over the two centuries after its incorporation into the Russian Empire largely russified and its indigenous Muslim population swamped or displaced. Hundreds of thousands of Muslim Tatars remained or have returned, but they are still a minority.

What Crimea is best remembered for in the West is the Crimean War of the 1850s. Is there a parallel to today’s tensions? The conflict was initially between the Ottoman Empire and the Russian Empire. In some ways some roots of the conflict lay in Ottoman Jerusalem in the 1840s and early 1850s, where Russia perceived that its claim on dominance of the holy places there through its Eastern Orthodox clients were being set aside by the Sultan in favor of those of the French and their Roman Catholic clients. Russia also coveted the Balkans and Istanbul (the Byzantium of the Eastern Roman Empire). When a conflict broke out between the princes of the Principalities (now Romania), who were nominally Ottoman vassals, and the sultan, the Russian backed the princes and sent in troops. Then it seemed Russia might fight all the way down to Istanbul and take it.

Britain and France did not want the Russian Empire to take over the Middle East, as it might have done if Istanbul fell to the Tsar. Britain reached India from the Mediterranean through Egypt and the Red Sea or through Syria-Iraq and the Persian Gulf. London did not want St. Petersburg to have the ability to cut it off from its rich Indian possessions. Likewise the French had clients in Lebanon and were a major power in the Mediterranean, and did not want Russia supplanting them.

Instead of trying to fight on land in the distant Balkans, the British and French proposed to the Ottomans a joint expedition across the Black Sea to the Crimean Peninsula.
(http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/history/hunt/classes/1c/images/Crimean%20War.jpg)

At the time there was no railroad linking the Crimea to St. Petersburg, and the Tsar could not easily get troops down there at short notice. In essence the Franco-British and Ottoman forces took Crimea hostage to forestall further Russian advances in the Balkans. Although the British Empire got the poem “Charge of the Light Brigades” out of the war, actually it was predominantly an Ottoman and French campaign– the British forces supplied were smaller.

Tennyson wrote:
“Half a league, half a league,
  Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death,
  Rode the six hundred.
‘Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns’ he said:
Into the valley of Death
  Rode the six hundred.
‘Forward, the Light Brigade!’
Was there a man dismay’d?
Not tho’ the soldiers knew
  Some one had blunder’d:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
  Rode the six hundred.
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
  Volley’d and thunder’d;
Storm’d at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
  Rode the six hundred.”


The Crimea ploy worked. The war came to a halt. The Great Powers signed the Treaty of London of 1856. It was an important document in diplomatic history. It foreshadowed the United Nations Charter in guaranteeing the Ottoman Empire against any further Russian aggression, with France and Britain pledging collective security. It also pledged the Ottomans to make their Christian subjects equal to the Muslim ones, setting the stage for Ottomanism as a national imperial ideal (it didn’t work in the long run).

--As in the 1850s, Russia is claiming as its sphere of influence a territory in eastern Europe (Ukraine today, Romania and other Balkan lands in the 1850s).
--As in the 1850s, the West has an interest in seeing Russian power blocked from that part of Europe (today because of their desire to incorporate Ukraine into Europe and possibly ultimately NATO; in the 1850s because they wanted the weak Ottomans to control the Middle East and to give them passage rights through it, rather than having to drive a similar bargain with a powerful Russian Empire).
--As in the 1850s, one flash point in this geopolitical struggle is Crimea and its Russian naval facilities. Today, the Russian fleet based at Sevastopol plies the Black Sea and goes through the Bosporus Straits to Tartus, Syria’s Mediterranean naval port.
--As in the 1850s, the West worries about Russian hegemony in the Middle East, with Syria being today’s flashpoint. Russia supports the Baath government of Bashar al-Assad, whereas the West largely supports the Free Syrian Army (but not the al-Qaeda affiliates among the rebels). Russia also has better relations with Iran than does the West.

The parallels are hardly exact. But the place of a major Black Sea port in contests between Atlantic powers and Russia has remained a stable feature of geopolitics for over a century and a half.
—–

So WHD, to your point, the West checked Russian expansion into the Middle east in 1856, and the British got a nifty poem for their dead.
Wonder what we'll get this time?
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: WHD on March 02, 2014, 08:42:29 AM
WWIII?

Hardly. While the most current events provide fodder for the most recent round of collapse hysteria (remember North Korea not more than a few months ago?), Russia parking troops in Ukraine generates about the same amount of gutless posturing on the part of American administrations as...oh...Georgia did. Someone remind me, are there still troops in Georgia? Did anyone go to WWIII to defend them? Nah.

Ukraine wants to be eastern? Fine. Wants to look to the west? Fine. Pretty much irrelevant most everywhere else.Watched Kerry on the tube this morning, and his ridiculous blustering is a giveaway. Sanctions! he says. Diplomacy! he says. Unfair! he says. Please. Just another lackey that thinks a stern warning has far more power than a single AK47 in the hands of the right guy. If Teddy Roosevelt and Putin can understand this, why can't the current administration?

Quote from: WHD

I have no desire to kill Russians, Chinese, or anyone else. Have your global war. I'll tend to my fruit trees, gardens; heal the wounded.

WHD

Combine this:

http://www.minneapolis.afrc.af.mil/ (http://www.minneapolis.afrc.af.mil/)

with this:

(http://www.maniacworld.com/Tsar-Nuclear-Explosion.jpg)

and I'm guessing that fruit trees and gardens aren't the right preps for that particular brand of doom.


Don't drone bomb me, don't nuke me, MKing, because I don't support your desire to drop nukes on Russia, China, by way of preemption.

WHD
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: Surly1 on March 02, 2014, 08:53:55 AM

Hardly. While the most current events provide fodder for the most recent round of collapse hysteria (remember North Korea not more than a few months ago?), Russia parking troops in Ukraine generates about the same amount of gutless posturing on the part of American administrations as...oh...Georgia did. Someone remind me, are there still troops in Georgia? Did anyone go to WWIII to defend them? Nah.


In the short run, I would tend to agree. Both sides have more to gain from the sale of Russian hydrocarbons to Europe than the not-sale. Follow the money, etc.

Strength and noisemaking ability of the Right Sector/Sloboda is a real joker in the deck. These folks have already proven the ability to construct homemade incendiaries in Kiev. Construction of IEDs to annoy NG pipelines is not a stretch.

Long term, if Russia can make their de facto occupation stand (and it says here they will), then you can only wonder where the next "Test of American Resolve™" will come. The neocons whose paymasters already guide FSoA foreign policy already have their silk pajamas in a knot over being checked by Vlad in Syria, now this.  Won't set well with the phony macho William Kristol crowd of hypocrites and posers.

Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: WHD on March 02, 2014, 08:56:05 AM
Quote
So WHD, to your point, the West checked Russian expansion into the Middle east in 1856, and the British got a nifty poem for their dead.
Wonder what we'll get this time?

Nuclear war, if Big Stick MKing has his way, preemptive show of force. End the war early this time, instead of late, like in Japan. No bigger cock than an ICBM.

WHD

(https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT3wtONPxXuGTTUMlFVcMqQdTIzhWLFyBOVxA8PSCEDCcVtYrAN)
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: Surly1 on March 02, 2014, 12:31:00 PM
Thoughts from Ian Welsh. He makes sense.

Some Perspective on Russian Intervention in the Ukraine (http://www.ianwelsh.net/some-perspective-on-russian-intervention-in-the-ukraine/)

by Ian Welsh

1) The journalists talking about anschluss are morons.  This is not Germany in the 30s, Russia is not going to try and conquer Europe.

2) The Ukraine was part of Russia for centuries, and has been independent for about 20 years.

3) The Russian Army is not the Red Army: it is not capable of conquering Europe.

4) The Crimea is majority Russian already and had been part of Russia, yes, for centuries.

5) Russia was NEVER going to allow Ukraine to kick them out of Sevastopol and the Crimea.

6) Americans spent 5 billion dollars promoting the Ukrainian revolution.  That’s a lot of money.  Granted that the Ukrainian government was a corrupt bunch of thugs, Putin is not crazy to think the West fomented the revolution.  The West DID foment revolution.  There was fertile ground, but 5 billion dollars is not chicken feed.

7) The West is not going to fight a war for the Ukraine.  Russia is.

8) The East of Ukraine is still pro-Russia.

9) What the Ukrainian parliament did with armed protesters standing over them is not, ummm, necessarily what they would have done without guns being waved in their general direction.

Analysis: it is highly unlikely that Putin will go for Kiev, though I won’t categorically rule it out.  Crimea will be part of Russia, whether de-facto or de-jure.  The eastern parts (which is where all the industry is, by the way), may be partitioned off as a rump state, or brought into Russia.  In both cases, if it happens, referendums will be held.  They will not need to cheat on them, as long as they don’t go too far West, they’ll win them fairly.

I will be frank: the West needs to stop fomenting these revolutions.  Russia is not going to allow NATO to creep up to their border without taking action.  You’d have to be crazy to think that Russia was going to allow the Ukraine, including Crimea, to become part of NATO, and yes, that was the West’s (or rather, America’s) endgame.  (The Europeans think the Americans are crazy to be baiting the bear like this.  But the Europeans need Russian natural gas.)

Russia is no longer the USSR.  It is not an existential threat to the West, or even to Europe.  It is a corrupt resource state with a big army and nukes which controls a lot of territory, but the idea that it would win a full-on conventional war with America is deranged.

All the US is accomplishing here is driving Russia into the country which is actually a danger to American dominance: China.  This was totally unnecessary, but the entire thrust of US policy since the USSR has been to try and cripple Russia, starting with the completely deranged “shock doctrine”  economic policies foisted on Russia right after the USSR’s collapse: doctrines which lead to an actual collapse in Russian population.

Putin thinks the US and the West are Russia’s enemies. He is not wrong.

Can you imagine if Russia spent 5 billion dollars fomenting a pro-Russian revolution in Mexico?  How would the US react? (And let us not forget the US invasions of Grenada and Panama).  If the US had broken up and California was its own state, would the rump US state feel they had a right to intervene in it?

Also, once more, the IMF will give Ukraine money in exchange for “reforms”. If you think those reforms will be good for the Ukraine, you are not just sadly mistaken, you are an idiot, or I hope you’re well paid to have such opinions.  IMF reforms do not help ordinary people.

Finally, if I were a Western Ukrainian, I probably would have supported the revolution: Yanukovych was just too corrupt and too brutal. This isn’t about choosing sides, this is about understanding them.
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: Petty Tyrant on March 02, 2014, 01:07:33 PM
Yep, that about sums it up nicely. The only question I would ask is to the statement that the europeans think the americans are crazy poking the bear. If the europeans are inviting a bk and corrupt country into the EU what the hell do they have to gain themself except nato encirclement of the bear?
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: Surly1 on March 02, 2014, 02:19:11 PM
Yep, that about sums it up nicely. The only question I would ask is to the statement that the europeans think the americans are crazy poking the bear. If the europeans are inviting a bk and corrupt country into the EU what the hell do they have to gain themself except nato encirclement of the bear?

I have no idea. What does NATO have to offer aside from the blandishments of the IMF?  And when did you last hear of a country whose government received IMF loans where the citizens did not emerge butthurt?
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: RE on March 02, 2014, 03:33:05 PM
Yep, that about sums it up nicely. The only question I would ask is to the statement that the europeans think the americans are crazy poking the bear. If the europeans are inviting a bk and corrupt country into the EU what the hell do they have to gain themself except nato encirclement of the bear?

I have no idea. What does NATO have to offer aside from the blandishments of the IMF?  And when did you last hear of a country whose government received IMF loans where the citizens did not emerge butthurt?

Basically Russia's problem is the inability to create organic credit, that is why Ukraine needs the IMF.  If somebody doesn't issue them credit, they got no money to buy energy.

The Military option is Vlad the Impaler's solution to not being able to offer credit comparable to what the IMF can offer.  The problem for Ukraine is they will go down right along with Russia as the Rouble gets destroyed in the FOREX market.  There will be a run on the Rouble for sure, or rather an acceleration of a run already underway.

This is going to create a LOT of problems for Putin.

RE
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: RE on March 02, 2014, 03:59:43 PM
(http://tpc.pc2.netdna-cdn.com/images/Crimea_River_Obama_Album.jpg)

RE
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: Petty Tyrant on March 02, 2014, 04:19:36 PM
I'll go out on a limb to fill in the blank of what youre saying RE, and preempt the question WHY attack the rouble, as it would seem most sane and sensible to facilitate BAU in energy sale and transit for all the players? And the possible answer would be, why foment revolution in the first place, if not to try and secure all energy sources for yourself, or to open another base or ICBM range.

Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: Surly1 on March 02, 2014, 05:11:45 PM
Yep, that about sums it up nicely. The only question I would ask is to the statement that the europeans think the americans are crazy poking the bear. If the europeans are inviting a bk and corrupt country into the EU what the hell do they have to gain themself except nato encirclement of the bear?

I have no idea. What does NATO have to offer aside from the blandishments of the IMF?  And when did you last hear of a country whose government received IMF loans where the citizens did not emerge butthurt?

Basically Russia's problem is the inability to create organic credit, that is why Ukraine needs the IMF.  If somebody doesn't issue them credit, they got no money to buy energy.

The Military option is Vlad the Impaler's solution to not being able to offer credit comparable to what the IMF can offer.  The problem for Ukraine is they will go down right along with Russia as the Rouble gets destroyed in the FOREX market.  There will be a run on the Rouble for sure, or rather an acceleration of a run already underway.

This is going to create a LOT of problems for Putin.

RE

Vlad deployed 20,000 troops that created facts on the ground that will take several hundreds of thousands to reverse-- troops which ain't arriving. Shit's not happening no matter how many pulls on the crack pipe John Kerry takes. Vlad bought Crimea cheap.

If you follow CHS, the run on the ruble would involve coordination between the Deep State and Wall Street. Will be interesting to see what happens. Their respective interests may be still sufficiently intertwined as to make that possible.

I think Putin has fewer problems than you do. His biggest problems are lack of Forex if the Ukronazis bomb his pipelines. WHO is going to dislodge him?

If they do that, then he goes in and "rescues Europe from the cold and dark."
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: RE on March 02, 2014, 05:35:11 PM
Vlad bought Crimea cheap.

What Vlad bought was a lot of Administrative headaches that will be a constant drain on his military resources.  He deployed 20K Troops to take control, he has to KEEP 20K troops there to maintain control.  Just like we have to keep troops in Baghdad and Afghanistan to keep control there.  Vlad doesn't even get any Oil from this, all he gets is control over the Valves so he can ship Ruskie NG from Mother Russia to Krautland in return for some Euro Scratch.

A run on the Rouble is already underway, here's what it looks like from the POV of Cayman Islands Dolars, a popular tax haven for Oligarchs:

(http://www.fxexchangerate.com/charts/rub-kyd-7-day-exchange-rates-history-chart.png)

This adventure is going to be very costly in terms of Capital Flight out of Ruskieville.

RE
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: Surly1 on March 02, 2014, 05:54:42 PM
Quote from: RE
He deployed 20K Troops to take control, he has to KEEP 20K troops there to maintain control.  Just like we have to keep troops in Baghdad and Afghanistan to keep control there.  Vlad doesn't even get any Oil from this, all he gets is control over the Valves so he can ship Ruskie NG from Mother Russia to Krautland in return for some Euro Scratch.

I don't know, RE. From many reports Crimea is eat up with Russians and Russian speakers who are scared shitless of the so-called nationalists (read Right Sektor/Sloboda/nazis) and who look to the Russians for protection. On th other hand, whothehell knows what the facts are on the ground? Supposedly many Ukrainian units have gone over to the Russians. So I don't think those troops will be there forever, and I don't think it costs him much.

We'll know better soon enough, though.

Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: Surly1 on March 02, 2014, 05:58:38 PM
...if natural gas prices in America begin to revolve around the marginal price internationally, the ability to export to keep the lights on in Europe will by definition mean much higher costs for American consumers...and businesses.


Quote
Feb 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. Energy Department on Tuesday approved exports from Sempra Energy's Cameron liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Louisiana as the Obama administration moves forward with its goal of expanding the global market for the fuel.

The conditional approval of exports from the terminal to countries with which the United States does not have free trade agreements, such as India and Japan, was the sixth approval by the department since 2011, and the first since mid-November.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/11/sempra-cameron-approval-idUSL2N0LG10A20140211 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/11/sempra-cameron-approval-idUSL2N0LG10A20140211)

Hmmmmm. Very interesting, especially in this context.

(https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/t1/1798762_713050695404326_14639606_n.jpg)
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: WHD on March 02, 2014, 06:00:51 PM
Quote
the ability to export to keep the lights on in Europe will by definition mean much higher costs for American consumers...and businesses.

From Mr Critical Thinker, who says, thanks to fracking, we are all going to drive electrical vehicles in a generation, for many generations ongoing. (Oops, I guess we are going to export all that surplus.)

WHD
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS/IMF version
Post by: Surly1 on March 02, 2014, 06:15:52 PM
The 2012 IMF/Ukraine Negotiations (http://www.ianwelsh.net/the-2012-imfukraine-negotiations/)
2014 MARCH 2
by Ian Welsh
These are the reforms the IMF wanted for a 4 billion dollar loan:

the IMF demanded that Ukraine double prices for gas and electricity to industry and homes, that they lift a ban on private sale of Ukraine’s rich agriculture lands, make a major overhaul of their economic holdings, devalue the currency, slash state funds for school children and the elderly to “balance the budget.”

This is what the IMF does to your country. Note that 4 billion doesn’t even come close to covering Ukraine’s debts.  Moscow offered 15 billion and a one-third reduction in natural gas prices.

If the Ukraine wants something close to prosperity, this is a sideshow.  The first thing they have to do is destroy their own oligarchs: take away their money and power.

But remember how the West squealed when Putin brought his oligarchs to heel?  Or at Venezuelan redistribution?  Oligarchs are even more sacrosanct in the West than the East.  The IMF would never allow the Ukraine to destroy their oligarchs and throw them all in jail.

The next step after that would be solidly reorient to China.  They want Ukraine’s food, and  the Chinese are willing to pay a premium for the resources they buy, at least by developing world standards (and that this point, that’s what Ukraine is.)  What, exactly the Ukraine thinks it will sell the West is beyond me: their Soviet era factories don’t make anything we want, and the West heavily subsidizes its own agricultural production.

***

The Rape of Ukraine: Phase Two Begins (http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article37803.htm)

By F. William Engdahl

February 28, 2014 "Information Clearing House - "21st Century Wire" - The events in Ukraine since November 2013 are so astonishing as almost to defy belief.

An legitimately-elected (said by all international monitors) Ukrainian President, Viktor Yanukovich, has been driven from office, forced to flee as a war criminal after more than three months of violent protest and terrorist killings by so-called opposition.

His “crime” according to protest leaders was that he rejected an EU offer of a vaguely-defined associate EU membership that offered little to Ukraine in favor of a concrete deal with Russia that gave immediate €15 billion debt relief and a huge reduction in Russian gas import prices. Washington at that point went into high gear and the result today is catastrophe.

A secretive neo-nazi military organization reported linked to NATO played a decisive role in targeted sniper attacks and violence that led to the collapse of the elected government.

But the West is not finished with destroying Ukraine. Now comes the IMF with severe conditionalities as prerequisite to any Western financial help.

After the famous leaked phone call of US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland (photo, left) with the US Ambassador in Kiev, where she discussed the details of who she wanted in a new coalition government in Kiev, and where she rejected the EU solutions with her “Fuck the EU” comment,[1] the EU went it alone. Germany’s Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier proposed that he and his French counterpart, Laurent Fabius, fly to Kiev and try to reach a resolution of the violence before escalation. Polish Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski was asked to join. The talks in Kiev included the EU delegation, Yanukovich, the three opposition leaders and a Russian representative. The USA was not invited.[2]

The EU intervention without Washington was extraordinary and reveals the deeping division between the two in recent months. In effect it was the EU saying to the US State Department, “F*** the US,” we will end this ourselves.

After hard talks, all major parties including the majority of protesters, agreed to new presidential elections in December, return to the 2004 Constitution and release of Julia Tymoshenko from prison. The compromise appeared to end the months long chaos and give a way out for all major players.

The diplomatic compromise lasted less than twelve hours. Then all hell broke loose.

Snipers began shooting into the crowd on February 22 in Maidan or Independence Square. Panic ensued and riot police retreated in panic according to eyewitnesses. The opposition leader Vitali Klitschko withdrew from the deal, no reason given. Yanukovich fled Kiev.[3]

The question unanswered until now is who deployed the snipers? According to veteran US intelligence sources, the snipers came from an ultra-right-wing military organization known as Ukrainian National Assembly – Ukrainian People’s Self-Defense (UNA-UNSO).

The leader of UNA-UNSO, Andriy Shkil, ten years ago became an adviser to Julia Tymoshenko. UNA-UNSO, during the US-instigated 2003-2004 “Orange Revolution”, backed pro-NATO candidate Viktor Yushchenko against his pro-Russian opponent, Yanukovich. UNA-UNSO members provided security for the supporters of Yushchenko and Julia Tymoshenko on Independence Square in Kiev in 2003-4.[4]

UNA-UNSO is also reported to have close ties to the German National Democratic Party (NDP). [5]

Ever since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 the crack-para-military UNA-UNSO members have been behind every revolt against Russian influence. The one connecting thread in their violent campaigns is always anti-Russia. The organization, according to veteran US intelligence sources, is part of a secret NATO “GLADIO” organization, and not a Ukraine nationalist group as portrayed in western media. [6]

According to these sources, UNA-UNSO have been involved (confirmed officially) in the Lithuanian events in the Winter of 1991, the Soviet Coup d’etat in Summer 1991, the war for the Pridnister Republic 1992, the anti-Moscow Abkhazia War 1993, the Chechen War, the US-organized Kosovo Campaign Against the Serbs, and the August 8 2008 war in Georgia. According to these reports, UNA-UNSO para-military have been involved in every NATO dirty war in the post-cold war period, always fighting on behalf of NATO. “These people are the dangerous mercenaries used all over the world to fight NATO’s dirty war, and to frame Russia because this group pretends to be Russian special forces. THESE ARE THE BAD GUYS, forget about the window dressing nationalists, these are the men behind the sniper rifles,” these sources insist. [7]

If true that UNA-UNSO is not “Ukrainian” opposition, but rather a highly secret NATO force using Ukraine as base, it would suggest that the EU peace compromise with the moderates was likely sabotaged by the one major player excluded from the Kiev 21 February diplomatic talks—Victoria Nuland’s State Department.[8] Both Nuland and right-wing Republican US Senator John McCain have had contact with the leader of the Ukrainian opposition Svoboda Party, whose leader is openly anti-semitic and defends the deeds of a World War II Ukrainian SS-Galicia Division head.[9] The party was registered in 1995, initially calling itself the “Social National Party of Ukraine” and using a swastika style logo. Svoboda is the electoral front for neo-nazi organizations in Ukraine such as UNA-UNSO.[10]

One further indication that Nuland’s hand is shaping latest Ukraine events is the fact that the new Ukrainian Parliament is expected to nominate Nuland’s choice, Arseny Yatsenyuk, from Tymoshenko’s party, to be interim head of the new Cabinet.

Whatever the final truth, clear is that Washington has prepared a new economic rape of Ukraine using its control over the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

IMF plunder of Ukraine Crown Jewels

Now that the “opposition” has driven a duly-elected president into exile somewhere unknown, and dissolved the national riot police, Berkut, Washington has demanded that Ukraine submit to onerous IMF conditionalities.

In negotiations last October, the IMF demanded that Ukraine double prices for gas and electricity to industry and homes, that they lift a ban on private sale of Ukraine’s rich agriculture lands, make a major overhaul of their economic holdings, devalue the currency, slash state funds for school children and the elderly to “balance the budget.” In return Ukraine would get a paltry $4 billion.

Before the ouster of the Moscow-leaning Yanukovich government last week, Moscow was prepared to buy some $15 billion of Ukraine debt and to slash its gas prices by fully one-third. Now, understandably, Russia is unlikely to give that support. The economic cooperation between Ukraine and Moscow was something Washington was determined to sabotage at all costs.

This drama is far from over. The stakes involve the very future of Russia, the EU-Russian relations, and the global power of Washington, or at least that faction in Washington that sees further wars as the prime instrument of policy.
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: RE on March 02, 2014, 06:21:13 PM
From Mr Critical Thinker, who says, thanks to fracking, we are all going to drive electrical vehicles in a generation, for many generations ongoing. (Oops, I guess we are going to export all that surplus.)

(http://austhink.com/critical/images/critical-thinking-cartoon.jpg)

(http://go.ibarcriticalthinkingmethod.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/rsz_bigstock-teamwork-banking-teamwork-of-p-25539644.jpg)

RE
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS/IMF version
Post by: Petty Tyrant on March 02, 2014, 07:13:02 PM
The 2012 IMF/Ukraine Negotiations (http://www.ianwelsh.net/the-2012-imfukraine-negotiations/)
2014 MARCH 2
by Ian Welsh
These are the reforms the IMF wanted for a 4 billion dollar loan:

the IMF demanded that Ukraine double prices for gas and electricity to industry and homes, that they lift a ban on private sale of Ukraine’s rich agriculture lands, make a major overhaul of their economic holdings, devalue the currency, slash state funds for school children and the elderly to “balance the budget.”

This is what the IMF does to your country. Note that 4 billion doesn’t even come close to covering Ukraine’s debts.  Moscow offered 15 billion and a one-third reduction in natural gas prices.

If the Ukraine wants something close to prosperity, this is a sideshow.  The first thing they have to do is destroy their own oligarchs: take away their money and power.

But remember how the West squealed when Putin brought his oligarchs to heel?  Or at Venezuelan redistribution?  Oligarchs are even more sacrosanct in the West than the East.  The IMF would never allow the Ukraine to destroy their oligarchs and throw them all in jail.

The next step after that would be solidly reorient to China.  They want Ukraine’s food, and  the Chinese are willing to pay a premium for the resources they buy, at least by developing world standards (and that this point, that’s what Ukraine is.)  What, exactly the Ukraine thinks it will sell the West is beyond me: their Soviet era factories don’t make anything we want, and the West heavily subsidizes its own agricultural production.

***

The Rape of Ukraine: Phase Two Begins (http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article37803.htm)

By F. William Engdahl

February 28, 2014 "Information Clearing House - "21st Century Wire" - The events in Ukraine since November 2013 are so astonishing as almost to defy belief.

An legitimately-elected (said by all international monitors) Ukrainian President, Viktor Yanukovich, has been driven from office, forced to flee as a war criminal after more than three months of violent protest and terrorist killings by so-called opposition.

His “crime” according to protest leaders was that he rejected an EU offer of a vaguely-defined associate EU membership that offered little to Ukraine in favor of a concrete deal with Russia that gave immediate €15 billion debt relief and a huge reduction in Russian gas import prices. Washington at that point went into high gear and the result today is catastrophe.

A secretive neo-nazi military organization reported linked to NATO played a decisive role in targeted sniper attacks and violence that led to the collapse of the elected government.

But the West is not finished with destroying Ukraine. Now comes the IMF with severe conditionalities as prerequisite to any Western financial help.

After the famous leaked phone call of US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland (photo, left) with the US Ambassador in Kiev, where she discussed the details of who she wanted in a new coalition government in Kiev, and where she rejected the EU solutions with her “Fuck the EU” comment,[1] the EU went it alone. Germany’s Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier proposed that he and his French counterpart, Laurent Fabius, fly to Kiev and try to reach a resolution of the violence before escalation. Polish Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski was asked to join. The talks in Kiev included the EU delegation, Yanukovich, the three opposition leaders and a Russian representative. The USA was not invited.[2]

The EU intervention without Washington was extraordinary and reveals the deeping division between the two in recent months. In effect it was the EU saying to the US State Department, “F*** the US,” we will end this ourselves.

After hard talks, all major parties including the majority of protesters, agreed to new presidential elections in December, return to the 2004 Constitution and release of Julia Tymoshenko from prison. The compromise appeared to end the months long chaos and give a way out for all major players.

The diplomatic compromise lasted less than twelve hours. Then all hell broke loose.

Snipers began shooting into the crowd on February 22 in Maidan or Independence Square. Panic ensued and riot police retreated in panic according to eyewitnesses. The opposition leader Vitali Klitschko withdrew from the deal, no reason given. Yanukovich fled Kiev.[3]

The question unanswered until now is who deployed the snipers? According to veteran US intelligence sources, the snipers came from an ultra-right-wing military organization known as Ukrainian National Assembly – Ukrainian People’s Self-Defense (UNA-UNSO).

The leader of UNA-UNSO, Andriy Shkil, ten years ago became an adviser to Julia Tymoshenko. UNA-UNSO, during the US-instigated 2003-2004 “Orange Revolution”, backed pro-NATO candidate Viktor Yushchenko against his pro-Russian opponent, Yanukovich. UNA-UNSO members provided security for the supporters of Yushchenko and Julia Tymoshenko on Independence Square in Kiev in 2003-4.[4]

UNA-UNSO is also reported to have close ties to the German National Democratic Party (NDP). [5]

Ever since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 the crack-para-military UNA-UNSO members have been behind every revolt against Russian influence. The one connecting thread in their violent campaigns is always anti-Russia. The organization, according to veteran US intelligence sources, is part of a secret NATO “GLADIO” organization, and not a Ukraine nationalist group as portrayed in western media. [6]

According to these sources, UNA-UNSO have been involved (confirmed officially) in the Lithuanian events in the Winter of 1991, the Soviet Coup d’etat in Summer 1991, the war for the Pridnister Republic 1992, the anti-Moscow Abkhazia War 1993, the Chechen War, the US-organized Kosovo Campaign Against the Serbs, and the August 8 2008 war in Georgia. According to these reports, UNA-UNSO para-military have been involved in every NATO dirty war in the post-cold war period, always fighting on behalf of NATO. “These people are the dangerous mercenaries used all over the world to fight NATO’s dirty war, and to frame Russia because this group pretends to be Russian special forces. THESE ARE THE BAD GUYS, forget about the window dressing nationalists, these are the men behind the sniper rifles,” these sources insist. [7]

If true that UNA-UNSO is not “Ukrainian” opposition, but rather a highly secret NATO force using Ukraine as base, it would suggest that the EU peace compromise with the moderates was likely sabotaged by the one major player excluded from the Kiev 21 February diplomatic talks—Victoria Nuland’s State Department.[8] Both Nuland and right-wing Republican US Senator John McCain have had contact with the leader of the Ukrainian opposition Svoboda Party, whose leader is openly anti-semitic and defends the deeds of a World War II Ukrainian SS-Galicia Division head.[9] The party was registered in 1995, initially calling itself the “Social National Party of Ukraine” and using a swastika style logo. Svoboda is the electoral front for neo-nazi organizations in Ukraine such as UNA-UNSO.[10]

One further indication that Nuland’s hand is shaping latest Ukraine events is the fact that the new Ukrainian Parliament is expected to nominate Nuland’s choice, Arseny Yatsenyuk, from Tymoshenko’s party, to be interim head of the new Cabinet.

Whatever the final truth, clear is that Washington has prepared a new economic rape of Ukraine using its control over the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

IMF plunder of Ukraine Crown Jewels

Now that the “opposition” has driven a duly-elected president into exile somewhere unknown, and dissolved the national riot police, Berkut, Washington has demanded that Ukraine submit to onerous IMF conditionalities.

In negotiations last October, the IMF demanded that Ukraine double prices for gas and electricity to industry and homes, that they lift a ban on private sale of Ukraine’s rich agriculture lands, make a major overhaul of their economic holdings, devalue the currency, slash state funds for school children and the elderly to “balance the budget.” In return Ukraine would get a paltry $4 billion.

Before the ouster of the Moscow-leaning Yanukovich government last week, Moscow was prepared to buy some $15 billion of Ukraine debt and to slash its gas prices by fully one-third. Now, understandably, Russia is unlikely to give that support. The economic cooperation between Ukraine and Moscow was something Washington was determined to sabotage at all costs.

This drama is far from over. The stakes involve the very future of Russia, the EU-Russian relations, and the global power of Washington, or at least that faction in Washington that sees further wars as the prime instrument of policy.

I suppose that all fits with radio interviews I was listening to about 3 weeks ago with ukranians. THey were saying while the protestors were united, the riot cops were deeply divided, many sympathetic to the rioters. Those sympathetic were considered a disgrace to the uniform and dropped in the forest freezing cold without the uniform, rioters cottoned on and waited with warm clothes. Then OTOH the zealots were identifying protestors and arresting their families for nothing.
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: WHD on March 02, 2014, 08:25:00 PM
Quote
In negotiations last October, the IMF demanded that Ukraine double prices for gas and electricity to industry and homes, that they lift a ban on private sale of Ukraine’s rich agriculture lands, make a major overhaul of their economic holdings, devalue the currency, slash state funds for school children and the elderly to “balance the budget.” In return Ukraine would get a paltry $4 billion.

I believe Monsta666 said, this is what Morsi in Egypt did, agree to sell-out Egypt to the IMF, which is really what got him thrown out of power. Washington and the IMF destroy everything they touch, in the name of democracy (but really in service to Imperial greed.) If there is any justice, TPTB in America, the IMF, World Bank, Intl Bank of Settlements, will all go on trial for crimes against humanity (and the earth).   

Neo-Nazi's in Ukraine. Al Qaida in Libya and Syria. There is no evil too low, that American Foreign Policy won't associate with, in the name of Full Spectrum Domination. Sick.  :P

WHD
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS/IMF version
Post by: RE on March 02, 2014, 08:56:32 PM
The 2012 IMF/Ukraine Negotiations (http://www.ianwelsh.net/the-2012-imfukraine-negotiations/)
2014 MARCH 2
by Ian Welsh
These are the reforms the IMF wanted for a 4 billion dollar loan:

the IMF demanded that Ukraine double prices for gas and electricity to industry and homes, that they lift a ban on private sale of Ukraine’s rich agriculture lands, make a major overhaul of their economic holdings, devalue the currency, slash state funds for school children and the elderly to “balance the budget.”

This is what the IMF does to your country. Note that 4 billion doesn’t even come close to covering Ukraine’s debts.  Moscow offered 15 billion and a one-third reduction in natural gas prices.

Highlight mine.

This is the operative problem as far as Ukraine Pols are concerned.

The only reason the IMF offers even this much is just to keep the banking system from imploding, not to help the Ukrainians.  The Ukrainians never even see this money, it passes straight through to the Secured Bondholders to pay up on outstanding debt.

What Ukrainian Pols WANT regardless of which side they are on is a big enough package where they can skim off money and deposit it to Cayman Island bank accounts.  They have to have control over the disbursement of the money too, and the IMF doesn't want to give them that.

$4B is Chump Change, even for Ukraine issues.  They need more like $35-50B, and not as more Loans they can't service, but as a GIFT!  LOL.

Putin won't GIVE them money either, he doesn't have it to give.  $15B from him is more like Energy Credits, he'll feed Gazprom fuel to them as a Credit, not hard currency.  So while this keeps the lights on in Ukraine and keeps the hovels warm the rest of the winter, it doesn't pay anybody's Pension or give them enough Scratch to buy food with either.  On the Ruskie Books, this further indebts Ukraine to Russia, making them Debt Slaves.

Basically ALL countries these days are run by a corrupt Political Class used to being able to skim a healthy portion of Debt money off into their own bank accounts, but the credit has dried up to a Trickle now, so there is nothing left to skim.  The IMF is just trying to keep the system from imploding.

Far as CHS theories on a Global Shadow Goobermint, that definitely exists here.  It's the folks who are really in charge of Credit Creation in the City of London and on Wall Street.  Theirs is still the only (semi)functional Global system,so they call the shots on who gets issued more credit and who gets triaged off of it.

If the Chinese and Ruskies and Brazilians and Indians could jump start their own Credit Creation system, they sure would but they can't do that.  None of these countries has the Banking Infrastructure to do it.  Their banks, such as they exist are just corrupt subsidiaries of the Anglo-American system.  They didn;t get in early enough on the Ponzi, which took centuries to set up.  They don't have credibility, and there isn't even the Veneer of a Legal System to protect "Investors".

Bottom line though is that even being in charge of Credit Creation doesn't put more resources in the ground to buy with that credit.  It does prevent the credit creators though from falling off the cliff first.  It's basically the same as you being the last Unemployed Person in your Subdivision left with a Credit Card that works.  You are the last person left who can still go to the Mall and charge up some Oil there.  The problem for the Mall Operator is that just you showing up at the Mall to buy some Oil does not pay HIS fixed costs of operation, including all the debt he has to service.  So he then tries to sell off his assets to another greater fool, but there aren't greater fools with enough scratch to buy those assets, putting them in a Liquidity Trap/Asset Class Sinkhole.  Sears and JC Penny are the commercial versions of this, they have a HUGE amount of Real Estate they "own" in Malls everywhere, but they can't unload the space to anyone else.  WTF wants to buy 1M sq ft in a Mall with close to ZERO foot traffic?  WTF wants to buy an Oil Field with $115/barrel production costs when no car traffic can afford to buy at that price?  Everybody who holds these White Elephants would like to get rid of them, but finding Bigger Fools gets harder all the time here.

So eventually here, the Credit Creators are the Bag Holders on a lot of Worthless Assets, Malls with no Foot Traffic, Convenience Store Gas Stations with no Car Traffic and McMansions nobody can pay the Mortgage on.  AKA, all the Malinvestment made in the Age of Oil.

Putin by rolling over Ukraine demonstrates that he doesn't understand the dynamics going on here any better than Obama-sama does.  Military force can't put more resources in the ground any more than Credit Creation can.  He is just burning up Capital faster by trying to hold onto the model also.

Inexorably, we creep closer each day to a lockup on both the credit end and the political/military end.  It still will take a while, as more weaker countries and currencies will be triaged off before a final Collapse of the system, but the writing is on the wall here already.

RE
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: WHD on March 02, 2014, 09:19:41 PM
Quote
the ability to export to keep the lights on in Europe will by definition mean much higher costs for American consumers...and businesses.

From Mr Critical Thinker, who says, thanks to fracking, we are all going to drive electrical vehicles in a generation, for many generations ongoing. (Oops, I guess we are going to export all that surplus.)

WHD

A) It is what I get paid to do...
B) fracking has completely left egg on the face of those who claimed "natural gas cliff in America", i.e. peaker types,
C) B) doesn't have much to do with driving EVs in a generation...we can, and do, drive them now...
D) exports will cause even MORE fracking when it drives up price...assuming electrical generation doesn't soak up the surplus first.

And if you apply A) to what might you invest in, considering how well global warming has affected the America NE this year...i.e. frozen wasteland......gas storage fields. Just a hint.

See folks. It doesn't matter how much we export. There will always be enough, to fulfil the future you want. Because MKing gets paid to say so.

(Just don't think about all that poisoning of all that earth, air, water  ;) )

WHD
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: RE on March 02, 2014, 09:20:09 PM
A) It is what I get paid to do...

That says it all in a Nutshell.

Quote from: Upton Sinclair
It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

RE
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: jdwheeler42 on March 02, 2014, 09:21:51 PM
D) exports will cause even MORE fracking when it drives up price...assuming electrical generation doesn't soak up the surplus first.
Yep, and when ecoterrorists figure that out, and realize that LNG tankers carry the energetic equivalent of a tactical nuke, well, you can do the math....
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: RE on March 02, 2014, 09:42:38 PM
D) exports will cause even MORE fracking when it drives up price...assuming electrical generation doesn't soak up the surplus first.
Yep, and when ecoterrorists figure that out, and realize that LNG tankers carry the energetic equivalent of a tactical nuke, well, you can do the math....

Are those ECOlogical terrorist or ECOnomic terrorists?

Forget the Tree Hugger terrorist from Greenpeace here, you got a much bigger problem with folks like the Somali Pirates, and Nation-States with some cheap shoulder fired Cruise Missiles.  LNG Tankers have to Load and Unload at very specialized ports, and they are Sitting Ducks at both ends.  If Putin wants to prevent Amerikan LNG tankers from offloading to the Eurotrash, he just funds and provides some cheap missiles to a Local Cell of Unhappy folks in Rotterdam to take out an LNG tanker unloading.

Once the economic system breaks down here for distribution, there are a bazillion people with NOTHING LEFT TO LOSE who will disrupt what is left of the physical infrastructure.  LNG tankers offloading from Amerika does NOTHING to help them, the energy comes at a price they cannot afford to pay anyhow.

The infrastructure doesn't exist to move that much LNG via tankers anyhow, and building more of them when they all will inevitably end up as scrap metal at the bottom of Davey Jones locker is still MORE malinvestment.

RE
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: Petty Tyrant on March 02, 2014, 10:49:58 PM
Is it watertight unasailable reasoning saying what theyre paid to do gives them the greatest qualification to talk on topic while at once saying its a secret what they are paid to do?  And a scientific critique of the unqualified writers work is just that they didnt go to the same conferences or to Harvard?


Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS/IMF version
Post by: Surly1 on March 03, 2014, 02:06:58 AM
The 2012 IMF/Ukraine Negotiations (http://www.ianwelsh.net/the-2012-imfukraine-negotiations/)
2014 MARCH 2
by Ian Welsh
These are the reforms the IMF wanted for a 4 billion dollar loan:

the IMF demanded that Ukraine double prices for gas and electricity to industry and homes, that they lift a ban on private sale of Ukraine’s rich agriculture lands, make a major overhaul of their economic holdings, devalue the currency, slash state funds for school children and the elderly to “balance the budget.”

This is what the IMF does to your country. Note that 4 billion doesn’t even come close to covering Ukraine’s debts.  Moscow offered 15 billion and a one-third reduction in natural gas prices.

Highlight mine.

This is the operative problem as far as Ukraine Pols are concerned.

The only reason the IMF offers even this much is just to keep the banking system from imploding, not to help the Ukrainians.  The Ukrainians never even see this money, it passes straight through to the Secured Bondholders to pay up on outstanding debt.

What Ukrainian Pols WANT regardless of which side they are on is a big enough package where they can skim off money and deposit it to Cayman Island bank accounts.  They have to have control over the disbursement of the money too, and the IMF doesn't want to give them that.

$4B is Chump Change, even for Ukraine issues.  They need more like $35-50B, and not as more Loans they can't service, but as a GIFT!  LOL.

Putin won't GIVE them money either, he doesn't have it to give.  $15B from him is more like Energy Credits, he'll feed Gazprom fuel to them as a Credit, not hard currency.  So while this keeps the lights on in Ukraine and keeps the hovels warm the rest of the winter, it doesn't pay anybody's Pension or give them enough Scratch to buy food with either.  On the Ruskie Books, this further indebts Ukraine to Russia, making them Debt Slaves.

Basically ALL countries these days are run by a corrupt Political Class used to being able to skim a healthy portion of Debt money off into their own bank accounts, but the credit has dried up to a Trickle now, so there is nothing left to skim.  The IMF is just trying to keep the system from imploding.

Far as CHS theories on a Global Shadow Goobermint, that definitely exists here.  It's the folks who are really in charge of Credit Creation in the City of London and on Wall Street.  Theirs is still the only (semi)functional Global system,so they call the shots on who gets issued more credit and who gets triaged off of it.

If the Chinese and Ruskies and Brazilians and Indians could jump start their own Credit Creation system, they sure would but they can't do that.  None of these countries has the Banking Infrastructure to do it.  Their banks, such as they exist are just corrupt subsidiaries of the Anglo-American system.  They didn;t get in early enough on the Ponzi, which took centuries to set up.  They don't have credibility, and there isn't even the Veneer of a Legal System to protect "Investors".

Bottom line though is that even being in charge of Credit Creation doesn't put more resources in the ground to buy with that credit.  It does prevent the credit creators though from falling off the cliff first.  It's basically the same as you being the last Unemployed Person in your Subdivision left with a Credit Card that works.  You are the last person left who can still go to the Mall and charge up some Oil there.  The problem for the Mall Operator is that just you showing up at the Mall to buy some Oil does not pay HIS fixed costs of operation, including all the debt he has to service.  So he then tries to sell off his assets to another greater fool, but there aren't greater fools with enough scratch to buy those assets, putting them in a Liquidity Trap/Asset Class Sinkhole.  Sears and JC Penny are the commercial versions of this, they have a HUGE amount of Real Estate they "own" in Malls everywhere, but they can't unload the space to anyone else.  WTF wants to buy 1M sq ft in a Mall with close to ZERO foot traffic?  WTF wants to buy an Oil Field with $115/barrel production costs when no car traffic can afford to buy at that price?  Everybody who holds these White Elephants would like to get rid of them, but finding Bigger Fools gets harder all the time here.

So eventually here, the Credit Creators are the Bag Holders on a lot of Worthless Assets, Malls with no Foot Traffic, Convenience Store Gas Stations with no Car Traffic and McMansions nobody can pay the Mortgage on.  AKA, all the Malinvestment made in the Age of Oil.

Putin by rolling over Ukraine demonstrates that he doesn't understand the dynamics going on here any better than Obama-sama does.  Military force can't put more resources in the ground any more than Credit Creation can.  He is just burning up Capital faster by trying to hold onto the model also.

Inexorably, we creep closer each day to a lockup on both the credit end and the political/military end.  It still will take a while, as more weaker countries and currencies will be triaged off before a final Collapse of the system, but the writing is on the wall here already.

RE

Well.

My point in posting this--
Quote from: Ian Welsh
(The IMF wants Ukraine to]double prices for gas and electricity to industry and homes, that they lift a ban on private sale of Ukraine’s rich agriculture lands, make a major overhaul of their economic holdings, devalue the currency, slash state funds for school children and the elderly to “balance the budget.”

--was to illustrate the harshness of the ratfucking ordinary working stiff Ukrainians will get from the IMF's terms. Hell, I'd go rushing into Vlad's arms, too.

As to this--
Quote from: RE
WTF wants to buy 1M sq ft in a Mall with close to ZERO foot traffic?  Everybody who holds these White Elephants would like to get rid of them, but finding Bigger Fools gets harder all the time here.

Contrary and I tried to go to Norfolk's urban MacArthur Mall on Saturday, to look at replacing a computer that is giving up the ghost. I drove around for 15 minutes and left, unable to find a spot to park. So your pronouncement of the death of the Mall is clearly a little early, if directionally correct. Your point about Sears and Penney's is well made, but their troubles lie more at the feet of Amazon and the intertoobz than $115 oil.

And as to this--
Quote
WTF wants to buy an Oil Field with $115/barrel production costs when no car traffic can afford to buy at that price? 
Your friend MKing, the most diligent and devoted poster here, will tell you that people will line up to do that, and jerk the last biscuit out of a child's mouth to pay for the privilege... Fracking is a sacrament, and the various toxicities and externalized pollution costs are just table stakes, citizen. Ante up or go home...
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: sensetti on March 03, 2014, 06:44:48 AM
We have no major interests in Ukraine, our best move is to stay away from the situation. Putin on the other hand has interests in Ukraine, half the country is pro Russian, and the Ruskies have pipelines running through the region. If Obama and Kerry were smart (that's like saying if frogs could fly) they would be silent and let this crisis run it's course. No one in the world gives a damn what they think and no one is concerned with their empty threats, this situation is way out of their league.
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: WHD on March 03, 2014, 07:45:05 AM
D) exports will cause even MORE fracking when it drives up price...assuming electrical generation doesn't soak up the surplus first.
Yep, and when ecoterrorists figure that out, and realize that LNG tankers carry the energetic equivalent of a tactical nuke, well, you can do the math....

People attacking things is always a possibility, everywhere. My guess is the usual precautions will be taken for these kinds of facilities. So far the ecoterrorist types haven't seem to really have it all together, capability wise. A 5 year year old can set fires.

http://www.denverpost.com/ci_22094432/arson-suspect-turns-herself (http://www.denverpost.com/ci_22094432/arson-suspect-turns-herself)

http://www.leftist.org/haightspeech/archives/308.html (http://www.leftist.org/haightspeech/archives/308.html)

Pretty tough these folks are, on defenseless Hummers and real estate and whatnot.

Attack property, and they shriek eco-terrorism! Attack people, kill people, kill innocents, and they call it American Foreign Policy. Leave it to the paid apologist for American Foreign and Domestic policy to distract from the bomb droppers, polluters, Imperialists, by dredging up isolated property damage from a decade ago.

WHD
Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS - The Looting
Post by: WHD on March 03, 2014, 08:55:27 AM
It would take a couple of sensible Midwesterners to get it. Tightest assessment I've seen yet, about what is really going on. Kleptocratic looting. Same is happening here in America, the covert-op sowing of division. It will pit the states against each other, states within. Here in Minnesota I could see the northern part seceding , to mine copper and nickel as bondservants to International Financiers. Looting on a global scale.

WHD


(http://truth-out.org/images/images_2014_02/2014_0228-3.jpg)

Ukraine: "Go West, Young Man" (or Dr. Strangelove's Revenge)

http://www.truth-out.org/opinion/item/22131-ukraine-go-west-young-man-or-dr-strangeloves-revenge (http://www.truth-out.org/opinion/item/22131-ukraine-go-west-young-man-or-dr-strangeloves-revenge)

"Let them loot." That is the demand of the West when its NGO subsidiaries firebomb government buildings, murder policemen and loot the arms depots of military forts. Kiev is the equivalent of Kosovo as a Slavic city-of-origin. Are we seeing a replay?

What would Dick Cheney (or President Obama for that matter) have done if Russian NGOs sponsored separatist movements in Texas, California or New England? How would US police have reacted against armed revolutionaries seizing the armory and throwing Molotov cocktails and bombs at public buildings, killing police, painting swastikas on Jewish houses and claiming vigilante justice? While this does not characterize all of the Ukrainian protesters, it does reflect a fair number of them. If this is Obama's "reset" with Russia, he is resetting the Cold War by setting the neocons loose in the former Soviet republics. If there is one thing that the CIA has shown its competence in, it is in setting one ethnic group against the others - Sunni vs Shiite, Kurd against Arab, Persian against them all. When other countries seek to defend a multi-ethnic secular state, the US foreign office has backed the fundamentalists for nearly the past half-century in all cases. This should be the sub-text for reporting on the Ukrainian uprising that seems to have been carefully timed to coincide with Sochi.

Events in Ukraine are provided enough heat to overshadow the conclusion of the Sochi Olympics. Since the USSR's collapse, the "reset" has been changed many times during our long-running Ukrainian "play," but the underlying theme remains the same as it has been in the Near East: Play the ethnic card to break the country into pieces if you want to disable government regulatory power and investment. Co-opt a client oligarchy whose opportunities for the West lie in privatizing public resources and selling shares in the rent-extracting companies on Western stock exchanges. Keep your proceeds in the West and fritter it away on trophy real estate, ownership of sports clubs and London or Swiss bank accounts.

The alternative would be for a strong government to tax away their natural resource rents and use it to subsidize industrial revival. So the path to "peace" is to promote civil warfare, break up countries and concentrate wealth in as few hands as possible so as to channel it to London, New York and other financial centers rather than leaving it to be invested at home. This is how Russia is being turned into a "hewer of wood and drawer of oil and gas for the house of my bond," to paraphrase the Bible (Joshua: 9:23). "None of you will be freed from being bondservants."

This is how American protectionists in the mid-19th century described British strategy for industrial and financial supremacy. And now the tables have been turned - not only against Britain (buckling under its own real estate bubble) but against the post-Communist economies that were utterly free of debt and privatized rent-yielding resources 20 years ago.

Rotating oligarchs shift in and out of this scenario, replacing one another in the rolling sequence of "color revolutions." While Russian and Ukrainian nationalists spar in "Spy vs. Spy" fashion, Ukraine's economy unravels and its people continue their exodus on an Old Testament scale to the Promised Land of the EU. Following Horace Greeley's advice of "Go West, young man," Ukrainians have joined the multitudes of "Polish plumbers" in the UK.

It didn't have to be this way (and it still doesn't). The stage was set in the closing stages of the Cold War. George H.W. Bush (the Elder) promised Mikhail Gorbachev that if the Soviets let the Warsaw Pact go and agreed to German reunification, Russia would not have to worry about further expansion of NATO. The United States then reneged by taking the former Warsaw Pact into NATO then moved into the former Soviet territory by absorbing the Baltic states - which, in geopolitical terms, were practically suburbs of St. Petersburg.

It is hard to blame the new entrants for wishing NATO entry, given their past Soviet occupation. This is the cross that Russia has had to bear for a generation, and it will continue to be a basis for the National Endowment for Democracy, the CIA and other "security" agencies to spur ethnic rivalry against Russians. To US neo-Cold Warriors, Stalinist oppression in the Soviet Union is what memories of the Holocaust are to Israel: In good Judeo-Christian tradition, it fans the flame of retaliation, resentment and revenge.

One can hardly blame Russians for feeling betrayed by the United States and NATO for breaking their word. More importantly, they see neocon Eurasionists in the State Department wanting even more. For neo-Cold Warriors the goal is the further breakup of Russia and its Near Abroad to create a neo-liberalized periphery, Baltic-style. Breaking up countries into small units controlled by kleptocrats who see their path to wealth being to privatize public assets and sell ownership shares to the West is the most effective way of preventing government subsidy of industry - and without industry there can be little military threat.

For Russia, this geopolitical game has an existential character. Ukraine looks like a dress rehearsal for separatist movements (much as the United States is sponsoring in China and already had achieved throughout the Near East). For Russia, NATO's moves into Georgia cut too close to the bone and were repelled. The threat of NATO taking Ukraine represented a thrust into Russia's geographic heart, the ancestral home where Russia was founded. (This should be read while turning up the volume on Prokofiev's "Alexander Nevsky.")

Timing is everything. If there were any time for an opponent of Russia to try to provoke an intemperate move, this was it. The Olympics were supposed to show a positive Russian face to the world, helping heal the old Cold War tensions. So from Mr. Putin's vantage point, the worst thing that could happen would be a distraction to remind the world of old Soviet-era repression - such as arresting Pussy Riot singers. So of course, this was precisely what the Western press played up. To read The New York Times or The Washington Post, the real sporting event was whether the police would descend on Pussy Riot's sideshow and could provoke Cossack goons into beating them up on camera.

While there certainly was legitimate protest against former President Viktor Yanukovych's corrupt government, there was what seems provocation to get policemen (under violent attack from protesters) to defend themselves when they were fired upon by demonstrators brought into Kiev specifically to create a public relations disturbance.

Meanwhile, the EU seems bent on reprising its earlier eastward expansion of recent decades into the former Warsaw Pact to reap a windfall in exports of consumer goods. This helped alleviate the unemployment resulting from the Maastricht Treaty's neoliberal fiscal and monetary austerity for the eurozone's currency union. Yet, Ukraine's purchasing potential is much lower than that of the countries that bordered Germany and were integrated into EU markets with heavy European subsidy. No Euro-export boom is likely to occur with any likely proposed association agreement. About the only thing the EU can achieve is to ensure a strong enough austerity program gets implemented in order to ensure the holders of Ukrainian bonds gets paid. Instead, the possible damage to Ukrainian markets from poorly executed trade liberalization and non-visa regimes may flood the EU with cheap labor by "Ukrainian plumbers." But now that Europe's real estate bubble has burst, where will they plumb?

So far, the neo-Cold War crossfire has left Ukraine indebted to Russia and the EU. Who will be liable for the 60 billion euros in Ukrainian bonds that Russians hold? Yields on ten-year bonds have just jumped above the 10 percent level (and shorter-term bonds much higher), indicating a general expectation of default. What will Russia charge for the gas it ships through Ukraine? Would a separatist NATO-Western Ukraine be able to buy gas at an equally low price as the Eastern Ukraine? Will Germans freeze in the dark?

When ethnic Ukrainians look to the EU as their savior, they have lost their sense of timing. They are seeing the last vestiges of a "Social Europe" that has been sacrificed on the altar of neoliberalism. Yanukovych had been urged to raise the VAT and tax labor all the more, but he resisted in order to prevent earlier popular unrest. Now that the Ukraine promises to move under Western neoliberal tutelage, the first policies that one can expect are higher taxes on labor and consumers - and an accelerated capital flight out of the country to the Eurozone and Switzerland.

Having suffered a generation under Stalin and his successors, Ukrainians will now be able to compare that to the hand of IMF central planners. Who needs a military thrust when a new round of shock therapy and austerity will do the trick more deftly?

Yanukovych is the kind of kleptocrat that neoliberals promised would enrich the post-Soviet states, except he committed the unforgivable sin of refusing to implement an EU/US-counseled austerity program. The aim is to transfer public wealth into the hands of private individuals who will be steered by the "Invisible Hand" (that of the sponsors of today's color revolutions) to seek their gains by selling what they have taken to Western investors. Finance is the new mode of warfare, and we are seeing a grab for what military invasions in times past aimed at: land, natural resources and infrastructure monopolies.

Prior to Yanukovych's overthrow, there was talk of a "reset" as the United States and Russia seemed to be moving toward a mutual accommodation. His departure from the scene places the United States and the EU back in a position of influence and will embolden hardline Eurasionists in the State Department, such as Victoria Nuland.

Meanwhile, the reappearance of Yulia Tymeshenko (who gained stature in jail) represents the return of ethnic Ukrainian oligarchs. They have been promised that they can get even richer by paying foreign bondholders - no doubt with an IMF or ECB destabilization program that will impose deep enough austerity to create an Irish-style Lost Generation.

There is little likelihood of national economic development. The aim is to empty out the nation's capital, not create it. There will be no more consideration of Modern Monetary Theory or Land Value Tax alternatives. The US/EU plan is the same neoliberal strategy designed to demilitarize the post-Soviet states by de-industrializing them and driving their population to emigrate.

"Structural adjustment" (today's euphemism for austerity) will continue loading down Ukraine with debt, using it as a lever to control its economic policy. Meanwhile, Russia offers debt relief (or at least more loans) without development, because it itself still partially remains under the thrall of neoliberalism.

Russia and Ukraine would benefit from an alternative economic policy based on regional capital investment in economic development. Russia and Ukraine need to halt the capital flight of their oligarchs to offshore banking sites in places such as London and Riga, and instead mobilize their natural resources, real estate and monopoly rents for domestic investment. Such moves would be denounced by the epicenters of "tax dumping" (London and New York). Currently, the IMF/European Central Bank wants supersede post-Soviet governments as their new central planners whose results can only accelerate kleptocratic looting!



Michael Hudson and Jeffrey Sommers

Michael Hudson's book summarizing his economic theories, The Bubble and Beyond, is available at Amazon. His latest book is Finance Capitalism and Its Discontents. He is a contributor to Hopeless: Barack Obama and the Politics of Illusion, published by AK Press. He can be reached via his web site,  mh@michael-hudson.com

Jeffrey Sommers is an associate professor of political economy at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and is visiting faculty at the Stockholm School of Economics in Riga. He is co-editor of the forthcoming book The Contradictions of Austerity. Additionally, he also publishes in The Financial Times, The Guardian, Truthout and CounterPunch and routinely appears as an expert on global television. He can be reached at: Jeffrey.sommers@fulbrightmail.org
Title: weird science
Post by: Petty Tyrant on March 03, 2014, 03:29:12 PM
You never answered which type of end of world nutbag you are, just asked if I was paying attention to something Jimmy Carter said about coal, sorry I wasnt paying attention between watching sesame street and weening off breast milk. The question remains which doomer you are since you said you were one since way back.

Maybe ugo doesnt know what hes talking about, but its not scientific to say only that. If you deconstructed his work by building an argument of your own it would be a scientific appraoch.

"A classic!! Can't stand the more modern machines myself, turning a motorcycle into a car on two wheels complete with cup holders and seat warmers and whatnot just isn't the motorcycling I grew up with, or motorcyclist I became".



I notice a lot of guys taking a good look at the 77 Suzi, but I have to say the old bike does not add or subtract velocity quickly enough and is a guzzler so I wont be keeping it. Cupholders? to encourage wearing fool helmets instead of full helmets and fool acts like taking your hands off to pour fluid over your face. Ive seen people smoking and texting on scooters so dont expect cfs to prevail.

"When the boy reaches the proper age I am wondering if hitting the road father/son style on dual sports and camping our way to Prudhoe Bay might be a worthy bonding experience".

I was just making coffee and saw through the window an eagle glide around left to right and stop on a dead branch then another do same onto the same branch, then they continued gliding around in the same direction left to right, big birds over a metre or 4-5 feet wing to wing. Then I read that, how bizarre.





Title: Re: ...and so it BEGINS
Post by: WHD on March 03, 2014, 08:45:04 PM

Attack property, and they shriek eco-terrorism! Attack people, kill people, kill innocents, and they call it American Foreign Policy. Leave it to the paid apologist for American Foreign and Domestic policy to distract from the bomb droppers, polluters, Imperialists, by dredging up isolated property damage from a decade ago.

WHD

I didn't say the eco-terrorist types had any staying power, only that in the name of CO2 emissions or whatever the current bandwagon is, they display a rather nasty tendency to want to burn things. As far as American bomb dropping, we've already discussed that, the countries bombed, the peoples freed and given a chance to try and do better for themselves (even if they didn't take advantage of said opportunity), the difference between murdering for a purpose (you might call that foreign policy) versus just murdering for the fun of it as some are wont to do. Recognizing that murder is murder, it does beg the question exactly what someone, or group, is supposed to do when faced with the murder for fun types?

Why should the collective reaction to bad folks be any different than the individual reaction? Certainly societies that require "turn the other cheek" don't work out so well in the long run..unless they happen to be close buddies with the "screw turn the cheek how about I put a cap in yo az.." types.

Burn things?

Bomb them to make them free? Does that apply equally, Pakistan, Yemen, Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Libya? Etc? The eco types I know are mostly about growing things and loving, and otherwise getting along, compared to American Foreign Policy.

Which race card which one of us played what? As for turning the other cheek, Jesus wasn't successful? Ghandi? MLKing? In what long run? There is also non-aggression, btw. Among others - there is your nuke bombing contingent, among which you seem to be most active. Fracker.

WHD









 



Title: ...and so it BEGINS: Crossposted on GEI
Post by: RE on March 04, 2014, 11:12:55 PM
With FABULOUS FRONT PAGE (http://www.econintersect.com/index.htm) Exposure with the new Graphic Dead Center of the page!!!  You can't MISS it!  :o

This should get us a nice BUMP in hits tomorrow!  :icon_sunny:

Also, I got requests from a couple of Bloggers to cross post the Doom All Around You rant as well in email.  :icon_mrgreen:

RE, King of Doom SUPERSTAR!

(http://www.6speedonline.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=299087&dateline=1384180534)

Don't worry, I won't let it go to my head.  I will be the same humble RE you have always known.  I won't forget the Little Doomers out there on the Diner when I do the Halftime Show at next year's Super Bowl.  ::)

RE