Doomstead Diner Menu => Geopolitics => Topic started by: Slogger on August 24, 2016, 04:49:04 AM

Title: Brexit means Brexit? Not if the Eunatoed States of America has anything to do with it.
Post by: Slogger on August 24, 2016, 04:49:04 AM


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Published on the The Slog on August 21, 2016



http://www.catholicherald.co.uk/content/uploads/2016/03/brexit-800x500.jpg



Discuss this article at the Geopolitics Table inside the Diner



exit



Mesnip29616HM Sloop Brexit should be sailing the high seas in search of new trading links beyond the European Union and its dysfunctional currency, economic and fiscal policies. But if Theresa MayorMaynot (and the people she represents) get their way, the less than seaworthy sloop of salvation will stay in port, making only occasional day trips to Ostend. Eight macro events may yet foil the plan to sabotage Brexit, but none of them are going to emanate from the Mayflower crew.





When it comes to Brexit, things seem to be moving along very nicely. If you voted Remain, that is. In just 48 hours, it will be exactly two months since The Historic Shock Vote. This is the current state of play:




What’s going on?



Let’s rewind the tape to a Slogpost of January 11th this year, in which I wrote this:



11116Brexitban



I very rarely write statements as definitive as that, because too often they quickly become hostages to fortune. But it was based on sources in Brussels, Westminster and Washington and the information was solid: you will not be allowed to leave.



There was, I suspect, nothing wrong with the information – which two out of three sources described as ‘common knowledge’. Indeed, the Washington source insists that the emails of a certain H. Clinton do (or did) make reference to the facts as laid out before me.



The facts were right, but my interpretation was wrong. I was, to be frank, a bit thick about what they were driving at: I assumed electoral rigging.



Perhaps that was indeed considered, but then rejected as unecessary – I don’t know. Certainly, the result came as a bombshell in Whitehall, where absolutely zero work had been done on what to do if Cameron lost the Referendum.



However, Our Man in Brussels (not that senior, as I’ve said before) remains unshakeable. And in the last 72 hours, he has reaffirmed what he first told me at the turn of the year: “It will not be allowed to happen”.





Among the upper ranks of UKIP and Tory Leavers, there remains a fatalistic clarity about what will (or rather, won’t) happen now.



Pro-Brexit Tory leadership candidate Leadsom has been suitably scared off, and the Conservative grassroots denied their chance to vote for her. The Blair/Campbell PR axis is pulling out all the stops to get at best lukewarm Remain doubter Jeremy Corbyn ousted as Labour Leader, and corporate stooge Owen Smith installed as his replacement.



Meanwhile, the mini-sloop Brexit sits in dock with its anchor firmly attached to the bottom. And apart from the odd cruise trip designed to give the illusion of action, that is exactly where it will stay.



Unless, that is, one or more of the following events occur:




  1. Donald Trump becomes President of the US


  2. Marine Le Pen becomes President of France


  3. Deutsche Bank finally crashes


  4. The Italian banking system collapses


  5. A Japanese meltdown triggers a rates panic


  6. The Fed gives rates another hike in September


  7. The Dutch vote to leave the EU


  8. Brazil defaults on its debts.



As the Buddhists say, all things must pass, everything is connected, nothing lasts forever. I would venture to suggest that the Pieces of Eight above will sooner or later do for globalist neoliberalism and financialised capitalism. At which point, the EU will be swept away, and Brexit – along with Article 50 – will cease to be issues of any importance.



Stay tuned.