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Messages - AJ

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1
Economics / Re: Hyperinflation or Deflation?
« on: February 26, 2020, 03:22:17 AM »
Palloy,
Your observation is why I spend so little time and energy on this site. I agree with K-Dog that a collapse of the economic system is what we need to perhaps save a little of what is left of this planet. I have been following Peak Prosperity's (Chris & Adam) excellent FREE coverage of the virus. I think Eddie said something about this virus being no worse that the regular flu?? YEAH (fuck that ADA non-sense), except that it might be the Black Swan. RE gave me crap for even mentioning Chris & Adam. So why come here? K-dog gets it.
AJ

2
Doomsteading / Re: C5 Walks into a Diner...
« on: February 24, 2020, 05:18:36 AM »
[

I don't need to fork over money to Chris & Adam to know any of the shit they wanna get paid for.  All the info is available elsewhere for FREE.   :icon_sunny:

RE
Yeah, but.
Chris and Adam have been producing videos for about the last 3 weeks that are not behind the paywall and in them Chris goes over the latest figures and research. Although Chris is not a epidemiologist he is at least a knowledgeable enough PhD who understands science (as many talking head M.D.s do not). All of the videos are relatively short (20 - 30 min.) and are well done. ALMOST everything else out in the "media" is crap: "no worse than the regular flu, move on nothing to see here". Our CDC is worse than crap, mindless spin and misinformation.
Surly,
As for the R0. Until the epidemic is all over the statistics are somewhat a black box. Can you trust the statistics coming out of China? No way. It's hard to even trust their published science. With the serious cases amounting to about 20% of infection and about a quarter of those requiring mechanical ventilation it will rapidly overwhelm U.S. hospitals (as it has done in China). IMHO we are in for a shit storm. C5 is right.
AJ

3
Doomsteading / Re: C5 Walks into a Diner...
« on: February 24, 2020, 03:13:52 AM »
C5 and his posts are spot on.
I guess I'm a little surprised at how uninformed the regulars are here :icon_scratch:
I spent money (for a cheapskate that is something) and paid Peak Prosperity's (Chris & Adam) fee to get behind their paywall. They have really good information outside the paywall and a little more behind it.  And I know the criticism of them that they are profiting from doom/prepping. So what, that's an illogical attack (almost ad hominim) on the information they provide. This virus is probably 20x more deadly than the ordinary flu, has an infectivity (R naught) of somewhere between 2 and 6, and strikes those over 60 the worst AND we, in the U.S. have one of the worst healthcare systems in the modern world. C5 seems to know all this. So, is this a black swan that sends us into a financial collapse - good chance. Next few months will tell.
AJ

4
K-Dog Off Leash Newz / Re: It is time
« on: February 23, 2020, 03:26:16 AM »
Thanks K-dog,
This guy was a real find. I couldn't agree more about JMG. I will have to see if he has written/blogged about JHK, another person I used to read and had some good ideas about collapse, but who has become to right wing for me.
AJ

5
Marathon Man Newz / Re: Dear Diner...and a Special Message to Knarf
« on: February 15, 2020, 03:15:14 AM »
I dont really like the cut and paste stuff that comes without any kind of setup by the poster. What caught your eye? Do you find it credible? Why? How does it fit into the larger point of view?  There are endless compiler sites out there. Without a frame of reference there is nothing to keep you here and with time it becomes generic crud.
Amen (from the atheist!) Amen! :emthup: :emthup:
AJ

6
The Kitchen Sink / Re: Gaining a more nuanced perspective on collapse
« on: February 06, 2020, 03:04:57 PM »
Cam,
I couldn't agree with you more. I sometimes feel caught between feelings of absolute hopelessness and some small hope for a post-industrial survival of humanity or at least the Eco-sphere.
I disagree with Eddie in that I think the climate models are wrong and are underestimating the time we have until tipping points push us over into hothouse earth scenarios. At the same time I hope they are wrong and that they are seriously missing some negative feedback loops. Time will tell but I think time is very short.
At the same time I try to educate family and friends about resilience and sustainability of life on a much lower level of resource/energy use. Such education seems wasted.
And to top it off almost everyone I meet is unaware and into BAU with complete denial of our situation.
The irony to me is to be aware of our place on the top of technological civilization before our potential extinction, and the extinction of perhaps the only sentient (if you can call us that) life in the universe.
It's supremely hard to not be depressed. Do your best to enjoy the moment.
AJ

7
Geopolitics / Re: BREXIT! The FUN Begins!
« on: January 31, 2020, 03:23:57 AM »
My guess is that they will go up. It seems the "markets" believe that money printing by the Fed will solve everything. We here all know that that's not the case. Someday (and probably soon???) there will be at least a big correction, but right now, the corona virus, Brexit and non-impeachment are all reasons why Apple and Tesla will go to the moon. Right?
AJ

8
Frostbite Falls Newz / Re: Frostbite Falls Daily Rant
« on: January 28, 2020, 07:38:32 AM »
Good to see you're back.
I myself have the solar array and a huge battery backup/dual inverter system. When the power goes off the controller immediately switches 5 circuits over to the inverter. I picked those circuits when we had the system installed as they power the home fridge, chest freeze, UV water system sterilizer, pressure pump, modem/router and cell phone extender. When I sized the battery it was supposed to power those devices for approximately 3 days. I also have a 4Kw Honda generator that can get hooked to the inverter to charge the batteries after 3 days. My problem is that the solar array is essentially useless at this time of the year (north facing slope in overcast Oregon). I also have two UPS power supplies for the modem/router and cell phone extender that I bought before I went solar. When the power goes out we have no hot water, home heating or cooking. We do have an upstairs "decorative" Morso wood stove for some residual heating. If the grid ever goes down permanently I have a small wood stove to install downstairs for some cooking/heating (my wife would never let me install it now - not the right decorative look :icon_scratch:).
I like the power outages because they let me prep for longer outages in the future. I get the system more and more refined.
I just purchased this: Amerelle Emergency Lights For Home by Amertac, 2 Pack from amazon. It only has 3 LEDs but it stays plugged into a socket and comes on only when power goes off - helps if you are in the shower and the light goes out. Wish there was something a little brighter, but it works.
Time to go stock up on some virus disinfectant!
AJ

9
Frostbite Falls Newz / Re: Frostbite Falls Daily Rant
« on: January 28, 2020, 02:55:22 AM »
Do you have to worry about CO build-up with running the stove to heat?? We lost power yesterday for 9 hours and even when its 50 outside the house (all electric) starts getting chilly and into the low 60's. I cook outside on a propane camp stove but have considered bringing it inside but for the CO poisoning prospects.
AJ

10
Medicine & Health / Re: Killer Superbugs!
« on: January 25, 2020, 01:25:50 PM »


Discussion may be lacking, but there are three separate articles in the Doomstead Diner Daily about this, as there were three yesterday (including the lead article), and two before that.  there's no lack of reporting on the virus; merely a lack of participation.

As for me, as a recent retiree who has taken to a life of enforced indolence and doing whatever-the-hell I want to do whenever I want to do it, I find that living as a virtual hermit suits me just fine. Except you eventually run out of liquor.

I am waiting for the coming trump Tweet storm where he demonizes Asians and Asian-Americans as potential carriers worthy of this week's pogrom.
1. you have to be like me and brew your own HARD cider (some has Elderberry added! - getting drunk and antioxidants at the same time.
2. no doubt the trump tweet storm is coming. My own feeling is that having traveled to China 35 years ago was that it was a culture based on multiple instances of starvation. Hence, anything (and I mean anything) edible became part of their cuisine. Not their fault, as Jared Diamond made clear, you eat what grew/lived in your area.
AJ

11
Medicine & Health / Re: Killer Superbugs!
« on: January 25, 2020, 05:38:06 AM »
Surprised we haven't had more discussion here about this pandemic. Chris Martenson over at Peak Prosperity has done a super job of describing how this is probably the pandemic that kills us (that's you RE and me - being old guys). Don't know there is much we can do but become hermits and shoo away any pesky neighbors that come around to visit. Dr. Martenson did a great video this morning about how this is shaping up to be a really big deal. You should post it here in a new thread RE (perhaps with some of your acerbic commentary?).
AJ :'(

12
I also fell over a data point last week that brought me up short, that only a third of the country has a four year college degree. My first reaction was surprise and astonishment, thinking that it had fallen precipitously from when I attended. Not so. The current rate of college -educated is the highest of all time, student loans and all.

So whatever they are learning, it's not about economic self interest.

What they are "learning" is a lot of stuff that won't get them a better job than a Barrista at Starbucks.  You know, stuff like IT, Engineering,Chemistry, History, etc, etc, etc.  ::)

Or they can go on to Law Skule, pile on more debt and end up on the UE line with a JD Sheepskin. etc, etc, etc.

RE
God, I couldn't agree with you more RE.
Law School is one of the biggest scams on the planet. Only the top 10% from say the top 20 law schools in the country get jobs at big law firms and then the true winnowing begins. In most of the Big Law firms you have 7 years to make partner or you're out. AND unless your big law firm is connected to big finance or silicon valley your chances of million dollar paydays are few and far between.
Most law school grads don't make much. I remember a few years back the "average" attorney was making $70K a year (not exactly something to ever get you into the top 5%). And what of all the others who went to law school and didn't pass the bar (had one friend from law school commit suicide because she could never pass the bar)? Wasted time and money. My feeling is that unless you are a genius lawyer or very lucky and got that right client (be it a victim where you get them a huge recovery or your friend happens to be the next Bill Gates) and milk it for everything you can you will be disappointed. BUT being an attorney is one of the avenues for an individual to hit the lottery and that will keep fools going to law school forever.
AND Eddie is right. You can make good money like my wife (10 years ago she was making $250K/year) by servicing the truly wealthy (like the founders of silicon valley) because they always need attorneys to help them hold on to all their hard earned money :laugh: :laugh:.  And then you end up like my wife and myself who were very conservative with our money and invested a lot in real estate AND got very lucky and now are comfortably well off (until it all disappears in a collapse of the financial system).
The current crony capitalist system of rigged markets has to be replaced. Maybe not by socialism but by something that is more equitable - like anarchy :icon_scratch:?

13
I feel for all of you. ::)
Oregon has NO sales tax! But then we have some of the worst public K-12 schools in the country. Having moved from the Bay Area it was a pleasant surprise, but I agree with Oliver Wendell Holmes - Taxes are the price we pay for a civilized society. Almost all the liberals around me here hate taxes. School districts bond measures routinely get voted down and then they wonder why our schools are physically falling apart and no one wants to go into teaching. And heaven forbid the legislature puts a tax increase on the ballot. The money spent by out of state corporations on TV advertising against ballot measures that might just tax them probably is greater than what the tax would cost them.  Reasonable (what ever that is) taxes are an investment in civilization. Better the taxes than anarchy.
AJ 

14
Economics / Re: Hyperinflation or Deflation?
« on: December 31, 2019, 02:40:29 PM »
c... Complexity= fragility..

Everything was relatively expensive pre-industrial age, hence everyones standard of living was lower.

JOW

I personally think that no one knows how fragile we are, ala Korowicz. We were almost there in 2008. As much as I despise Bernanke, Geithner, & Paulson, they saved the "system" for one more blow of the bubble. The whole charade was imploding in 2008 and they saved it. Sadly Obama didn't prosecute any of the guilty and hence we have Trump. Trump has only made the system more fragile. Once it breaks it will not reassemble except at a MUCH lower standard of living.
AJ

Both points correct, in my view. At some point in the future, the average American standard of living will be that of the average Estonian. Think a 60 per cent reduction, by, as JOW suggests, everything becoming far more expensive.
I think it will be more at the level of the average ancient Etruscan (which is considerably lower than modern Estonians).
AJ

15
The Kitchen Sink / Re: What keeps you going?
« on: December 31, 2019, 02:35:38 PM »
Yeah, staying optimistic is a challenge. I solve it by drinking too much :icon_sunny:. And since I'm 67 years old I figure my livers gone anyway.
Joking aside it is hard to stay optimistic. To paraphrase Richard Dawkins - when you think of all the life that has been and all the possibilities for genetic combinations for human being, you are one alone and unique. To be alive and have awareness of your uniqueness in an otherwise non-sentient universe puts you on top of Mr. Improbable. Quite a view of the Universe up here. But looking downslope at the loss that is to come (both personally in death and universally in the loss of civilization and knowledge) it's damn hard to be happy. Have to try though!
AJ

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