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Messages - Eddie

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1
Golden Oxen Newz / Re: Gold & Silver News
« on: Today at 07:39:38 AM »
Not even sure we make it through this generation. LOL.

2
Golden Oxen Newz / Re: Gold & Silver News
« on: Today at 07:38:14 AM »
There are many things worse than gold that people try to put money into. Of that, there is no doubt.

How about:

Ferraris...classic cars that only rise in value over the years, and never fall.


Strip malls in urban centers.


Emus


Alpacas


NYC Cab Licenses



Waterfront homes in Miami


Potcoin



3
Golden Oxen Newz / Re: Gold & Silver News
« on: Today at 06:56:20 AM »
You're plenty smart. You are so successful with money, your stamp collection is probably worth more than my entire portfolio. But guys like you are few and far between. You are a truly exceptional case. I believe that sincerely. I know a few others like you that I could name, but none on the Diner.

I don't ridicule goldbugs. I just try to give some balance to views I consider extreme and not supported by the facts. I do this for my own benefit. I have to make my own decisions, because I've found almost every piece of financial advice I've ever read or been given by so-called experts is deeply flawed. I spend a lot of time examining strategies, and I make up my own mind, for better or worse. I am not a follower of conventional wisdom.

I said I didn't take what you said personally, and I don't. Don't take what I said personally either. It wasn't meant as a personal attack on you. I admire you a great deal.

Who is gonna make it? We'll find out, in the long run.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/iZxLlOIpI0k&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/iZxLlOIpI0k&fs=1</a>



4
Golden Oxen Newz / Re: Gold & Silver News
« on: Today at 06:30:06 AM »
She will claim she had to quit because the conditions were unfair and discriminatory. She mentioned on the phone that I had grabbed her hand while we were working....(which amounts to she wasn't holding my suction in the right place, and I moved it to the right place.)  But you're not allowed to touch employees. Especially women. Especially brown women.

We will fight and probably win. We have experience. But the burden of proof is always on the employer. They don't tell the people down at the unemployment office they quit. We have to go to bat and contest it. The arbiters of who gets what are overwhelmingly women, and a lot of them are brown. Just sayin'.

5
Geopolitics / Re: Trumpty-Dumpty POTUS Thread
« on: Today at 06:22:27 AM »
On Fridays, Trump just fires off a couple of nasty tweets and flies out to to the golf resort, anyway.

It should be fairly easy to entertain a Trump Free Friday, most weeks, without missing much.

I'm thinking we see some interesting developments from Mueller over the next several days and weeks. He is going to have to shit or get off the pot. It doesn't matter what the truth happens to be. It's the US public perception that matters and that's getting weirder and less related to reality by the day. Mueller needs to indict some people and make it stick, at this point. Somebody besides Russian soldiers doing Putin's backroom hacking dirty work.

6
Golden Oxen Newz / Re: Gold & Silver News
« on: Today at 05:54:24 AM »
I had a recent hire quit with a phone call 12 hours before this morning's shift. Been with us 5 months and just quit without notice. She lives at home. Her job skills sucked, she never got her required state certification anyway (we hired her on the condition she would), and she didn't see a problem with leaving us in the lurch on a Monday morning.

My fault I guess. Last week I started finally letting my frustration show a little bit with her inability to come up to speed after months of training. She was still making the same mistakes, costing me time and money. I'm glad she weeded herself out, but I expect her to apply for unemployment. I doubt she has a job to go to, and we'll have to fight to keep our state unemployment premiums down. We have to pay half of 6 months benefit if she gets it.

She called the missus and said she "wasn't comfortable" working in our office.

7
Golden Oxen Newz / Re: Gold & Silver News
« on: Today at 05:45:53 AM »

                For. GO😋😘
             
               " I'd like to get you
                  On a slow boat to China
                 All to myself alone
                 Get you and keep you
                 In my arms evermore
                 Leave all your lovers
                 Weepin on the far away shore"

    Just You and Me Sweet Stuff!! ;D :o :o :-* :laugh:


                            Jimmie Rodgers - Oh Oh, I'm Falling In Love Again

                                   <a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/CjLJBj1BprA" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/CjLJBj1BprA</a>
                 

This is so cute.

8
Golden Oxen Newz / Re: Gold & Silver News
« on: Today at 05:26:37 AM »
I think relatively few people ever just start a 401K and never tap into it until retirement. That's the exception, not the rule.

Millenials will vote for socialist type reforms, some of which would no doubt be beneficial, like single payer, for instance. They view it as a responsibility of government to provide a safety net. They expect to pay big taxes, and they are fairly accepting of the authority of the state. Most of them are headed for a low standard of living. They expect that.

Just don't fuck with their data plan or their phone apps.

9
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/sanders-wing-party-terrifies-moderate-dems-here-s-how-they-n893381

Sanders' wing of the party terrifies moderate Dems. Here's how they plan to stop it.
Party members and fundraisers gathered for an invitation-only event to figure out how to counteract the rising progressive movement.
by Alex Seitz-Wald / Jul.22.2018 / 4:01 AM ET


Ocasio-Cortez joins Sanders to rally for Kansas Democrat, progressive values
Jul.20.201801:19

COLUMBUS, Ohio — If Sen. Bernie Sanders is leading a leftist political revolt, then a summit here of moderate Democrats might be the start of a counterrevolution.

While the energy and momentum is with progressives these days — the victory of rising star Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in New York, buzz about Democratic Socialism and the spread of the "Abolish ICE!" movement are a few recent examples — moderates are warning that ignoring them will lead the party to disaster in the midterm elections and the 2020 presidential contest.

That anxiety has largely been kept to a whisper among the party's moderates and big donors, with some of the major fundraisers pressing operatives on what can be done to stop Sanders, I-Vt., if he runs for the White House again.

But the first-ever "Opportunity 2020" convention, organized here last week by Third Way, a moderate Democratic think tank, gave middle-of-the-road party members a safe space to come together and voice their concerns.

"The only narrative that has been articulated in the Democratic Party over the past two years is the one from the left," former Delaware Gov. Jack Markell told NBC News.

"I think we need a debate within the party," he added. "Frankly, it would have been better to start the conversation earlier."

Pragmatism may be a tougher sell in the Donald Trump era, but with the 2020 presidential race just around the corner, moderate Democrats know they are running out of time to reassert themselves.

The gathering here was just that — an effort to offer an attractive alternative to the rising Sanders-style populist left in the upcoming presidential race. Where progressives see a rare opportunity to capitalize on an energized Democratic base, moderates see a better chance to win over Republicans turned off by Trump.

The fact that a billionaire real estate developer, Winston Fisher, co-cohosted the event and addressed attendees twice underscored that this group is not interested in the class warfare vilifying the "millionaires and billionaires" found in Sanders' stump speech.

"You're not going to make me hate somebody just because they're rich. I want to be rich!" Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, a potential presidential candidate, said Friday to laughs.
Image: Tim Ryan
Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, arrives for a House Democratic Caucus meeting on Capitol Hill in Washington on Nov. 30, 2016.Susan Walsh / AP file

The invitation-only gathering brought together about 250 Democratic insiders from key swing states. Third Way unveiled the results of focus groups and polling that it says shows Americans are more receptive to an economic message built on "opportunity" rather than the left's message about inequality.

"Once again, the time has come to mend, but not end, capitalism for a new era," said Third Way President Jon Cowan.

For the left, Third Way represents the Wall Street-wing of the party and everything wrong with the donor-driven wet blanketism they've been trying exorcise since 2016. Thom Hartmann, a liberal talk radio host and Sanders friend, once called the group's warning about Sanders "probably the most stupid thing I've ever heard," before ticking through all the investment bankers on Third Way's board.

But some elected officials in relatively conservative areas say progressives are clueless about what their agenda would mean for Democrats outside major cities and the coasts.

"We will be a permanent minority party in this country," said Iowa state Sen. Jeff Danielson, a firefighter who represents an area that saw one of the biggest swings from Barack Obama to Trump during the 2016 election.

Single-payer, government-run health care may be a popular party plank in New York City, where Ocascio-Cortez, a Democratic Socialist, recently won a high-profile primary, Danielson said, but added, "it does not work in the rest of America ... and I’m tired of losing."

Moderates said they feel they're being drowned out by louder voices on the left.

Rep. Cheri Bustos, D-Ill., a member of the House Democratic leadership who represents a district Trump won, invoked Richard Nixon's "silent majority."

"If you look throughout the heartland, there's a silent majority who just wants normalcy. Who wants to see that people are going out to Washington to fight for them in a civil way and get something done," she told reporters.

"There's a lot of people that just don't really like protests and don't like yelling and screaming," she added.
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And they worry the angry left will cost Democrats a rare chance to win over those kind of voters, including Republicans who no longer want to be part of Trump's GOP.

"Republicans have chosen the far right, which means that they have ceded a good portion of the middle of the road," said former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, who is considering a presidential run. "The Democrats, in my opinion, would make a big mistake if they decide to run a base election and just say, ‘Our base is bigger than your base.'"
Image: Mitch Landrieu
New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu speaks in Washington on race in America and his decision to take down Confederate monuments in his city on June 16, 2017.Jacquelyn Martin / AP file

With much of the recent policy innovation on the Democratic side happening on the left, the "Opportunity Agenda" unveiled here tries to equip moderates with their own big ideas.

Some of the key initiatives are a massive apprenticeship program to train workers, a privatized employer-funded universal pension that would supplement Social Security and an overhaul of unemployment insurance to include skills training. Other proposals included a "small business bill of rights" and the creation of a "BoomerCorps" — like the volunteer AmericaCorps for seniors.

Meanwhile, they say the progressive agenda is out of date. They dismiss, for instance, a federal jobs guarantee as a rehash of the New Deal.

"Our ideas must be bold, but they must also fit the age we are in," Cowan said. "Big isn't enough. If it's bold and old — it’s simply old."

Matt Bennett, Third Way's senior vice president for public affairs, acknowledges that Sanders "had a big head start."

Many of the party's biggest stars, including Sens. Kamala Harris of California, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York and Cory Booker of New Jersey, have already signed on to Sanders-backed policies like single-payer health care. But Bennett said he thinks they'll reconsider when they examine the details. "I think they were a little hasty," he said.

Notably, the proposed moderate agenda does not take issue with the party's broad consensus in favor of abortion rights, LGBT equality, stricter gun control and support for immigrants and a path to citizenship for the undocumented.

In a twist, the agenda is based largely on geography, rather than class or race, which are more popular on the left. It focuses on trying to address the fact that cities are thriving as rural areas fall behind.

Clinton was pilloried earlier this year for bragging that she "won the places that are optimistic, diverse, dynamic, moving forward," but Democratic losses in the rest of America have been politically disastrous for the party.

The difficulty will be selling this approach in the Democratic presidential primary to a base that has seemed to move in the opposite direction.

Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn., the chair of the New Democrat Coalition, said members of his side are not "naturally arbiters of emotion and anger."

"How we tell our story and put forward our polices in a way that makes people want to mount the barricades is one of the biggest challenges we have," said Himes, a former Goldman Sachs banker who represents Fairfield, Connecticut.

He pointed to calls to "Abolish ICE," for instance, which he characterized as emotionally understandable but politically illogical.

"It hurts us in areas where we need to win," Himes warned of "Abolish ICE" in the midterms. "You have now made life harder for the 60 or 70 Democrats fighting in districts where we need to win if we ever want to be in the majority."

"We're going to figure it out, though," he added, looking down at his tie printed with little blue waves. "We're going to figure it out."
 

They should start by learning the math. They need to attract white people, and they aren't doing anything to make that happen.

They persist in their ongoing strategy, which is to just survive until demographics gives the victory, as the brown Americans become the majority. but it isn't quite so simple. On their present course, I don't see them surviving at all as a major force in American politics.


A damaging distortion

Black Americans are over-represented in media portrayals of poverty
And that underpins some toxic beliefs


Democracy in America
Feb 20th 2018by C.K. | WASHINGTON, DC

NBC reported recently that at a meeting last year with the Congressional Black Caucus a member told President Donald Trump that his planned welfare cuts would hurt her constituents, “not all of whom were black”. Mr Trump is reported to have replied: "Really? Then what are they?” If the president had not realised that most welfare recipients are white, he is not alone. And the media are partly to blame, for black Americans are overwhelmingly over-represented in media portrayals of poverty.

The poverty rate amongst black Americans, at 22%, is higher than the American average of 13%. But black people make up only 9m of the 41m poor Americans. The Kaiser Family Foundation, a non-profit focused on health care, found that in only five states for which it had data and the District of Columbia, were there more black poor people than white. Black Americans are more likely to be recipients of means-tested welfare programmes like Medicaid or Housing Assistance - at 41% participation in one or more programmes in 2012 that is about twice the national average. That suggests black people make up about 26% of all recipients.

Media news suggests that the percentage is very much higher. Travis Dixon at the University of Illinois analysed a random sample of television, print and online news stories over 2015 and 2016 and found that 59% of the poor people discussed or depicted in them were black. White families, by contrast, accounted for only 17% of poor people shown, though they constitute 66% of the poor population. It is possible that, with a new emphasis on the frustrations of poor white Americans, that Mr Trump tapped into in 2016, media portrayals will begin to change; it is too soon to know.

The bias isn’t limited to right-leaning news sources. In the news coverage Mr Dixon looked at, CNN depicted seven poor families—all seven of them were black. And all five of the poor families depicted in Dixon’s sample of New York Times coverage were black.

Unsurprisingly, this tendency, which has a long history, has informed the way Americans think about race and poverty. Martin Gilens, a politics professor at Yale, found that in a survey in 1994, 55% of Americans thought that all poor Americas were black and only 24% thought the reverse.

And this, in turn, has set some Americans against welfare spending. Katherine Krimmel and Kelly Rader, political scientists, have found that individuals who are more likely to benefit from government spending tend to support it. Richer people in poorer states are notably keen to cut domestic spending. But they found that racial resentment has an even greater influence on attitudes to government spending. They measured resentment via two questions about whether blacks should overcome prejudice “without any special favours” and whether “generations of slavery and discrimination have created conditions that make it difficult for blacks to work their way out of the lower class.” The impact of resentment on attitudes towards spending was four times that of income differences and larger than measures of self-interest including being unemployed. If welfare is seen as overwhelmingly benefiting blacks it is little surprise that whites displaying racial resentment might oppose it.

The Sentencing Project, an advocacy group for criminal justice reform, has found a similar pattern regarding violent crime.  Crimes perpetrated by African Americans were disproportionately likely to be covered on television –especially if they involved a white victim.  While only 10% of victims in crime reports were whites who had been victimised by blacks, these crimes made up 42% of cases televised by local news. Popular perceptions of crime reflect the coverage bias: a survey from 2002 found that respondents estimated 40% of people who committed violent crimes were black; surveys showed the proportion to be 29%.  And white Americans who more strongly associated crime with black Americans were more likely to support punitive criminal justice policies including the death sentence and three strikes laws.

A media focus on black poverty may be well-intentioned. It probably has its roots in the pre-Civil Rights era when the plight of poor black Americans was too often neglected. But it has helped underpin a toxic set of beliefs about poverty and race. It would be better, of course, if people did not decide their support for programmes based on the skin colour of beneficiaries. But until that is the case a more accurate understanding of the diversity of welfare recipients would help.

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2018/02/20/black-americans-are-over-represented-in-media-portrayals-of-poverty




10
Golden Oxen Newz / Re: Gold & Silver News
« on: July 22, 2018, 06:41:12 PM »
I'm really enjoying reading about other doomer's financial strategies. GO is way out of my league. Eddie is way more ambitious then me. RE probably where I would be if I had no responsibilities. I won't comment on the rest since I do not understand their situations. One thing I have noticed in my age bracket or a bit younger among my greenies or light doomer friends is the tendency to concentrate on the skills and tools of doom to the detriment of the BAU finances. I tear my hair out as I see a maturing food forest and good prepping skills but large mortgage debt barely being picked at. I have long believed that stage one is a financial squeeze not a collapse. I fear for my friends still loaded with debt on a first house let alone a third. I believe they will be crushed by phase one. In the spirit of openness; My wife and I chose this area due to its low cost of living decent isolation and access to income potential (cottagers). We bought our land outright mostly from my squirrelled away money from my apprenticed years. We built the house shell on left over savings, lines of credit and introductory credit card rates... We moved into the shell as soon as the roof was on and the walls sealed. I took a job with a contractor just long enough to qualify for a mortgage then started out on my own. We finished the house as we could. Crazy busy kidless years ensued. Construction is very hard work but it can be rewarding. At this point barring financial disaster I'm set. I have to keep working but the unstoppable wobbles of life should not sink me. I'll never be rich but I don't live that high on the hog anyways.  I never expected to be the one still standing so the last year has been a little confusing. I've mentioned it before but my wife passed away last year.  This was the first year in 12 I actually worked for someone so I had to sock away a fair bit of money in an RSP to avoid tax. That never happened to me when I was self employed! How does this relate to gold?  This is where I don't know enough. I see gold as a currency for buying things when times are hard. Am I wrong? Concentrated portable wealth. So here is what I don't get; if everything I would need to buy is small like tools or grain or parts do I need gold? Yes its portable but its just too concentrated for us working folk no? I keep some cash and oddly enough have a few pounds of silver due to a coin collecting wife but short of that its all tools, skills, preps, land and equipment for wealth storage. So you gold bugs out there should I have a very modest gold position at my stage of the game?
curious to see any responses.
Cheers,  David

I'm not a gold bug either, according to my friend GO, who should know, if anyone does. But here's my (perhaps conventional doomer) take:

Tools are best bought soon. Good hand tools will be priceless and unobtainable if BAU does collapse. I don't have as many as a I should have. But I'm a buyer of tools. I'm adding all the time.

In a fast collapse scenario, though, you could perhaps buy that fine woodlot you know about for five ounces of gold, or maybe less. That's what gold is for. Big purchases. And if you need to leave town, it's highly portable and anonymous. It doesn't work for small exchanges.

Silver is a little better, maybe. Some people like the pre-64 US coins, which are 90% silver. I think those coins would spend in the worst of times.

For grain or parts, I'd say your own god-given talents will be fungible, as well as the barter items we all talk about. Bullets, bandaids, and  beans. Nails and screws. Used solar panels and old charge controllers that still work. Extra piston pumps.

A bugout vehicle for you is a total waste, imho. If I were to bug out I'd want to go where you are now. You're already there, and well set up. Congratulations.


Spend the bug-out vehicle money on row crop implements for your excellent tractor. You can make bank plowing gardens when nobody else has fuel.


11
Surly Newz / Re: WHEN THE END OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION IS YOUR DAY JOB
« on: July 22, 2018, 06:22:04 PM »
The end of civilization in my day job.

Miss me?

The effects of climate change have been pretty severe here, this year. Its not far from my mind as I observe each food producing plant. I observe, learn and strategize. Its what I do. Its all I do.

I'm far behind on everything I planned this year. The humidity has made me have to work in half hour bouts. What i have learned about myself is that it takes about 2 days to recover after working in high humidity.


FYI, keep in mind that things speed up at the end, any time you take the curve in an exponential growth curve.

https://www.peakprosperity.com/video/85829/playlist/92161/crash-course-chapter-4-compounding-problem

It's incredibly fuckin' hot here. You could work outdoors until maybe 9 am. I am worried about the pigs, but they're able to wallow and seem to be hanging in. I turned up their water tap a smidge today to flood their wallow a little better. A well pump problem right now would be a very, very bad thing. 109 degrees F forecast tomorrow. I can't seem to remember a day that hot here, ever.

That exponential curve thing really bites.

Good to hear from you!

12
Golden Oxen Newz / Re: Gold & Silver News
« on: July 22, 2018, 06:16:35 PM »
Okay, Agent Graves. Thank your for sharing those stories. All good stuff. Let me respond to a couple of things you said:


I began with one then built up to 3 properties, 2 being rental, now just 1 city family home and a stead, no loans. To do well means really knowing a good investment a lot more than dumb luck. But we could not have done it without stable employment, and that is what I believe is the problem today preventing a single person buying even one apartment or a couple buying even one house. Except those still lucky enough to have stability. Last night I said I think the labour hire companies are collecting about 35-40$ /hour from the employer and paying the worker 23-27$. Tony said its a lot more they collect from the employer, like 60-90$ before giving the worker their 22-27$ depending on skill/qualification, but they feel its worth it to be able to keep them 2 days, 2 weeks, or 2 months, whatever. No holiday/sick pay or other benefit. It is also about making them work their asses off, stressed out and unable to ever say "no im not doing that its unreasonable", as tomorrow someone else will replace them and they then have no good reference to work somewhere else. Then whatever they managed to save on the last gig gets burnt up when they get the call they are not needed the next day, but they will "let them know" which could mean not hearing anything for a month or ever again. That would take incredible discipline to invest in gold as part of the gig economy, and buying property is out of the question.



Right. If you can't even negotiate the price of your own labor, because some middle man can buy your labor cheap and sell it dear, then you're nothing but a victim.

I look at investing in the following way: The first step is to create a surplus. If the goal is investing, in most things that surplus has to be the coin of the realm. There are exceptions. If you have your land and own it, as you do, then you can invest in things like food resilience and food forest building, alternative power, etc.

If you have the surplus.

If you CAN'T create a money surplus, you can't make any kind of an investment other than things you can build with your own hands, and things you can nurture over time, like a herd of animals. I'll leave that approach to people who are good at it like C5 and farmgal. David is good too. I wish we had more people here writing about those things. But many of the things I'd like to have in my preps cost money, and I'm looking forward to a time when I won't be able to work anymore. So I look at ways to create income streams for my extreme old age and that of my wife.

In this country, most middle class people still get some kind of retirement from their day job. Government workers. Teachers. Techie people. Most of that goes into a 401K and goes into stocks, or possibly stocks and bonds. Increasingly employers do screw people by going the temp route, I acknowledge that. But....I think if the idea is that there is SOME investment money going SOMEWHERE, then stocks are a terrible choice. Bonds are worse. Some savvy people, like GO, can make money on those things. But you just can't buy IBM and Bell Telephone like our grandparents did. It won't work.

So I present some alternatives. But...I understand, it's not something everyone can do anymore. Especially people who went into adulthood without much of a plan, and without much intention.

That sure describes all the people who work for me. There is a vast gulf between people like them and people like me. Sorry, but it's the truth. Not a gulf of intelligence, or even a gulf of opportunity. It's a gulf of expectations and attitudes.

Things have changed and people have not.

In 1948, you could graduate high school, go to work for GM or Ford, make good money working as trained labor, get a pension, buy a house, have a small but comfortable nest egg. It didn't take much more than showing up day after day without dying of boredom.

Is it really, really different now? Of course. But people still graduate high school and just try to get a job. No real plan. Fake it til you make it.

Now it takes a lot. Specialized skills. More education. Nothing comes easy. People are not prepared...but whose fault is that exactly?

You have to take charge of your own life and make it into something. You have, personally. I can see that. You have actually done exactly what I'm doing now, and what I'm writing about. You used leverage to achieve your current level of financial independence. Becoming debt free and owning two valuable assets, including a homestead. Nobody says you have to take excessive risks. If you got what you needed, or the markets have changed where you are, then you don't have to keep on forever. Discretion is the better part of valor.

Some people can't do that at all. Some people can, but they blow it because they can't stick with it for the long haul. Personally in their relationships. Also in the world of work.

But many people are just swept along through life down the path of least resistance. I don't have anything to help them. No advice. No investing tips. Nothing.

It is not necessary for you to put 40% down to invest though, banks will lend on one property based on equity in another, of course easier and less stress if you do. I put 11k or 10% down on the first home, which i bought for what was owed to the bank by previous owner, not its market valuation, and nothing down on any other after that. I also bought 5k gold and 5 bitcoins when they were cheap as preps. They can get wiped out with your hard drive though if that info isnt saved on something else. All it takes is for one of the automatic windows updates which you can not stop to get stuck.

I put the minimum down on a house I intend to live in, but it generally makes really good sense to put a big down payment into rentals. In a rising market like here, it's the only way to make the deal flow cash, which is critical to your success, and anyway, a 40% downpayment means the housing market can tank, and you won't get killled when the market gets ugly and illiquid.

The BIGGEST mistake you can make with investing in housing is to use too much leverage. It's a cyclical market, always, in the best of times. In these times it's apt to be worse. Right now I actually have six cash flow properties in all. Two I own outright. Three I bought with 30% down. I now wish I'd put down 40% on those. That's why I'm doing 40% on this new one. Experience.

My overall level of leverage in all the real estate I own, including my house and the stead and the lake cottage...all the rentals, the whole enchilada...is about 50%.  As I get older, I intend to use less leverage, not more.

I won't buy cryptos. I know people who made a lot on paper. Most of them lost a lot more recently. My feeling is that cryptos will find a place...but right now, it's the equivalent of tulip bulbs. Caveat emptor.

Gold and silver should be a part of everyone's portfolio, in my book. Within reason, though, as far as the percentage of your assets. And for the right reasons too. Insurance against a true hyperinflation, which could happen someday, perhaps. A form of very portable, very anonymous wealth. Not as an investment that will feed you in your old age. It isn't that, and never will be.


13
Surly Newz / Re: WHEN THE END OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION IS YOUR DAY JOB
« on: July 22, 2018, 02:04:59 PM »
Here we advocate for Prepping Up as best you can for the inevitable changes to come and grasping there are some things you just cannot change, like the large scale behavior of entire populations in many different countries with many different systems of governance with about the only thing in common is that they are all corrupt.

So for me, worrying about the climate change issue and how to stop it is much like worrying about nuclear war and how to stop that.  I can do neither, so I am not going to worry about it.  I consider things I can do something about, like how to grow food hydroponically in areas with poor soil and how to use available energy more efficiently and conservatively.  I focus on already existing low tech solutions rather than pie-in-the-sky Skittle Shitting Unicorn solutions of Cold Fusion or colonies on Mars.  I look for ways to REVERSE ENGINEER back to a simpler way of life with smaller societies more responsive to their own populations on a more equitable basis than the unbridled GREED of Capitalism.  None of these changes will occur overnight, or even within my rather short expected future lifespan, but I still work towards them because it's the right thing to do as I watch my last sunsets on this side of the Great Divide.

RE


Well said. I need to bookmark this one for the obit, if I outlive you, which looks likely right now (but looks can be damn deceiving.)

14
Golden Oxen Newz / Re: Gold & Silver News
« on: July 22, 2018, 01:57:44 PM »


Even Palloy has (or had) gold. At least he said so. So.... I think your assumption is wrong. AZ has a gold mine, fer Chrissakes. His hobby is finding gold the old guys missed in their haste to find the motherlode.

I know that most people don't have investments. But your mistake is believing that it's JUST because the system shuts them out. That they get screwed out of creating wealth. Did I ever tell you that you tend to oversimplify things? LOL.

There are so many reasons people fail to achieve financial independence. Sure, the current system makes it way harder than it once was. That's true, and I just said so above, in case you missed it.

Here's the real short list of why people die broke and don't accumulate wealth. (And I'm not talking about the riches of kings. I'm talking about having enough to live comfortably in one's old age.)

1. Failure to save any money at all on a regular basis.

2. Failure to make a viable investment strategy.

3. Failure to execute a good plan, once it's made.

4. Failure to recognize fundamental changes in markets, and make timely course corrections.

5. The human tendency to go for instant gratification, which leads to excessive risk taking.

6. Divorce.

7. And, last but not least, an educational system that goes out of its way to keep most people from learning the way money works.

Most people don't even think about anything except living paycheck to paycheck. Because thinking isn't their long suit.

Yesterday evening I was with 3 others and these topics came up,  what we said would support what you say, but there is a difference today for a lot of people, a growing number of people making it impossible.

The first had one house, sold it and bought further out, cheaper, and now has nothing. He works in building and construction and handyman, it seems sometimes on taxed wages and other times cash. Of course it wasnt always that way and once had stable reliable work. He could not buy another house now, banks would not look at him. His transport is an EV bike most of the time. He doesnt think he will ever get back to owning again.


The second got help with deposit from parents and bought a house when he got married, later divorced and lawyers took almost everything, blew his settlement, now has a govt house due to being single parent. He was saying it burns him that he cant do the same for his own kids, help give them a start. He could go back to work now as those kids  now 15-17 were old enough to be looking after themselves while he was out. He said hes on a waiting list for free dental braces worth 7k for one kid, if he works he will be off that waiting list and have to find the money himself. A fitter and turner who worked for GM, he mentioned that before GM closed down they were using labour hire services for autoworkers. I feel labour hire service is an absolute abomination and hugely responsible for more and more people living hand to mouth now. That is real rent seeking, not an investor landlord.

the 3rd began as a plumber and bought a basic 3x1 with help from parents. He was lazy and changed to selling used cars at a car dealer, but still does easy plumbing work like fixing toilets and taps, new basins etc. He built a second house behind with council approval and rented out the original one in front. Then he later had the front one changed to a double story. he added a second garage to the second house  and converted the original garage to a nice studio apartment. He  lives only off rents from the 2 houses now, owing now about 140k. He could live in one of the houses himself again but thats pointless for one person. He also went on a 7 year interest only period of borrowing, but kept making a lot of extra payments to bring the loan down. He thought. After his shouting and being thrown out of the bank, I spoke to someone from the bank on the phone and got the story that during interest only period, for any additional payment the first 5000$ is going on interest not principle. If you deposited 5001$ every day, after a year you would have paid down the loan by 365$. You might say its his own stupidity, but this is a paranoid schizophrenic with a raging persecution complex who would certainly do what Palloy incites if someone showed him how.

He then wanted to sell the biggest house and be free of banks like me and spend the money travelling the world as he has no dependants. But there's a problem with separating the titles because despite having all separate meters for water, electricity and gas the 1m2 piece of land where they are is not owned by either house. So once again "they" are raping him.

I began with one then built up to 3 properties, 2 being rental, now just 1 city family home and a stead, no loans. To do well means really knowing a good investment a lot more than dumb luck. But we could not have done it without stable employment, and that is what I believe is the problem today preventing a single person buying even one apartment or a couple buying even one house. Except those still lucky enough to have stability. Last night I said I think the labour hire companies are collecting about 35-40$ /hour from the employer and paying the worker 23-27$. Tony said its a lot more they collect from the employer, like 60-90$ before giving the worker their 22-27$ depending on skill/qualification, but they feel its worth it to be able to keep them 2 days, 2 weeks, or 2 months, whatever. No holiday/sick pay or other benefit. It is also about making them work their asses off, stressed out and unable to ever say "no im not doing that its unreasonable", as tomorrow someone else will replace them and they then have no good reference to work somewhere else. Then whatever they managed to save on the last gig gets burnt up when they get the call they are not needed the next day, but they will "let them know" which could mean not hearing anything for a month or ever again. That would take incredible discipline to invest in gold as part of the gig economy, and buying property is out of the question.

It is not necessary for you to put 40% down to invest though, banks will lend on one property based on equity in another, of course easier and less stress if you do. I put 11k or 10% down on the first home, which i bought for what was owed to the bank by previous owner, not its market valuation, and nothing down on any other after that. I also bought 5k gold and 5 bitcoins when they were cheap as preps. They can get wiped out with your hard drive though if that info isnt saved on something else. All it takes is for one of the automatic windows updates which you can not stop to get stuck.

Thanks for the comment. I'm out of time but I'm coming back later to address a few things. Gotta go feed the pigs.

15
Geopolitics / Re: Trumpty-Dumpty POTUS Thread
« on: July 22, 2018, 01:53:41 PM »
It is illegal for foreign nationals to contribute to candidates running for federal office.

This prohibition includes, but is not limited to, acting as a conduit or intermediary for foreign national contributions and donations.

A person acts knowingly for the purposes of this section when he or she has:

Actual knowledge that the funds have come from a foreign national;
Awareness of certain facts that would lead a reasonable person to believe that there is a substantial probability that the money is from a foreign national; or
Awareness of facts that should have prompted a reasonable inquiry into whether the source of funds is a foreign national.


https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/candidate-taking-receipts/who-can-and-cannot-contribute/

Look for "whocoodanode?" as a defense in the coming months, when dozens of Russian funded Rs (via the NRA) are unmasked.

I read that the other day, and I vote, not for deadbeat, but more like completely financially beholden, which isn't the same thing unless your a socialist like Hartmann.

That and a generous helping of blackmail, because Trump has secrets and Putin knows them all, and could leak them anytime he wanted with zero repercussions, and Trump knows it.

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