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Topics - illdill

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The Kitchen Sink / Disease! :(
« on: April 16, 2014, 02:50:02 AM »
Anyone know what these critters are?

This is on my dwarf lime tree, it also causes it to 'sweat':



These pods were on my goji berry plants:

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Energy / Is This Dumbed Down and Innocent Enough for an Editorial?
« on: November 16, 2013, 09:32:59 AM »
ENERGY PRIMER

>INTRODUCTION

The what is energy, the question is not who, when, where, or why, but how.

This is a quick and dirty primer on our energy situation. It is simplified, but I have tried to cover the most important concepts and explain them and their relationships compared to one another and to society. I believe the energy issue is somewhat complex, but it is THE critical ‘issue’ for our globalized, growth based, consumer society and that will become painfully obvious in short order. We need to have informed awareness about the problem if we expect solutions.

This is not politically suggestive, nor does it propose solutions on how to deal with the energy issue, I leave that up to you. This is strictly observational.


>EROI/EROEI

“It takes money to make money” – Energy Return on Investment / Energy Return on Energy Invested is fairly straightforward. In the first years of commercial oil production, it took one barrel of oil energy equivalent to produce one hundred barrels of CRUDE oil. Now days it is between ten and twenty to one and getting worse. The difference is that EROI focuses on the monetary investment where as EROEI focuses primarily on the actual physical energy required (usually measured in btu’s).

EROI or EROEI, in a sense, represent the profitability of oil extraction, or the economically recoverable amount of oil (or any finite resource) that can be extracted.

>ECONOMICS (Supply & Demand)

“I can’t afford it.”
“Well then I can’t afford to produce it.”

This is the cycle that plays out as the EROI number goes down and the economy struggles to grow with the high costs of energy. As the costs get higher, the oil industry can invest in more production and so ‘excess’ energy is once again delivered to the economy. But soon the abundance drives the price back down and the oil industry can no longer afford to discover and drill for more.

At some point this imbalance could level out, but always with energy availability in over all decline. As the Super Giant fields around the world that still provide the vast majority of the worlds Crude oil continue to decline.

The economy depends on a growing and cheap supply of energy to feed the machines of modern industrial society. The problem is that the supply is getting smaller and less productive.

>ENERGY DENSITY

The different types of fossil energy sources vary, but they can be broken down into Gas and Oil. Each have their own subtypes but are the primary differentiators when it comes to their use in our civilization.

The “Low Hanging Fruit” applies to all energy exploits. People go after the mother load that is easiest to get to. But also there is the issue of Energy Density. As some resources are mined, such as coal, the resource contains less of the material that makes it energy useful, and more of the material that does not. In short, it doesn’t burn as hot.

So as we expand our reach for fossil energy, we are forced to resort to lesser and lesser quality sources of energy that are more and more costlier to extract and refine.

>ENERGY USES

Knowing the different types of oil is a prerequisite to understanding their uses.

Conventional Crude Oil is the black gooey stuff we all think of, but it is ‘fully matured’ and energy dense, where as the ‘Oil’ like substances coming from Fracking are not always fully ‘cured’ and require expensive treatment to make them available as gasoline or other useful oil based byproducts.

The process of Hydraulic Fracturing (I am lumping Tar Sands in with these fuel types even though it is strip mined) (Fracking) produces Gases like Methane and Butane as well as ‘tight oil’ and gas that is trapped in rocks and must be blasted out. There is quite a bit of energy available around the world with this method and resource types. However it still only buys us a few decades, and that is if the economy can continue to adsorb the increasing costs of the energy.

Our primary uses for Crude and some types of the Fracked oil is transportation, as well as other things like plastics and pesticides.

Our primary use for gas (Methane, Propane, Butane, and many others) is in some small and larger vehicles as well as fertilizer, cooking and heating and producing electricity.
It does not contribute to transportation in any significant way and our infrastructure isn’t set up for it.

Though we have a ‘lot’ of natural gas in the US, Natural gas does not have the kind of global market like Crude oil and therefore is primarily subject to local costs. Although there have been talks about building more Natural gas ports. But Natural gas is expensive to transport due to it needing to be very cold and under very high pressure.

We are setup to run on highly energy dense, combustible liquid fuel, or Gasoline.

>ALTERNATIVES

Alternative energies such as wind and solar have the potential to provide energy for a few decades longer, but only in limited areas, and subject to sunlight and wind variations. We would have had to divert all of our efforts for building our infrastructure around that type of energy decades ago.

It is highly unlikely we will reach that level of renewable capability before the costs of energy make it impossible. Developing these technologies requires that the fossil fuel dependent backbone of the global economy continue to be greased with cheap, abundant energy.

>CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate Change forces us to look at the humanity side of the coin. And it doesn’t tell a pretty story. The climate changes naturally, the Sun has warm and ‘cool’ phases, we can see it in the data. But the data also tells another story. A story of rapid acceleration of many recent data points that do not occur in the available historical data, ever.

Humans are certainly impacting the climate, but whether or not we are causing the damage, Climate Change is still a game changing issue, not merely for our convenience, but for the survival of almost every multi-cellular life form on this planet (which includes humans).

The newer methods of extraction and fossil sources not only prove more expensive and of less quality, but they contribute more of the chemicals that scientists tell us are the main culprits of our environmental and climate impact.

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Somethings going to give, and it's going to give big time. The human footprint is squashing our delicate planet under its bulky and top heavy weight.

Population overshoot and collapse is not a new phenomenon by any means. It has happened in the past with animal as well as human populations. But are we doomed as a species to overshoot and collapse? Are we by our nature, destined to follow the Easter Islanders?

It is a worthy question deserving of serious contemplation.

At first glance, it seems ludicrous. We are so much more intelligent and capable than the animals and even the former inhabitants of Easter Island. Our technology and bottomless pit of ingenuity will surely save modern man from this predicament.

But as we take stock of the 'progress' of our modern civilization and its degrading condition, it is quite apparent that we are not interested in preventing a global re-enactment of Easter Island, but instead, are more interested in business as usual. Our way of life seems to be non-negotiable in the public sphere.

Solutions that involve allowing us to remain a culture of consumption seem to be the only viable options presented by politicians and scientists alike. No one wants to admit that we may not be able to continue on as we have.

It's understandable. We have gotten comfortable with our newly created synthetic environment and entertainment devices.

So from my perspective, as I look back through history, overshoot and collapse seem to be a common condition. I haven't found an example of a society that came close to overshoot and then suddenly changed in a way that allowed their society to continue sustainably.

Are we destined to follow the path of the Easter Islanders? I would say it is statistically, the most likely outcome.

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Environment / How Will It End?
« on: November 08, 2013, 03:00:42 AM »
So many intelligent people are caught in the trap of thinking we can find a solution to our energy woes that doesn't involve working harder, having less and expecting less. It is a shame that their intelligence is wasted on fruitless efforts to maintain business as usual and our fairy-tale dreams of having technology slaves at our disposal while we sit around listening to music and eating ourselves into a heart attack.

Everyday some new technological marvel promises to 'change the way we live' meanwhile it's existence is due to the fact that we have nearly destroyed our chance at living the only way that has ever been known to be sustainable. Google wants us to live to 170. Scientists want to cure all diseases. Energy companies want to achieve sustained fusion to produce virtually unlimited energy.

Perfect, let's keep converting the earth into people and our products. Eventually well figure out the folly of our ways when all that is left to eat is other people and the plastic they are wearing and all that is left to walk on are the bones of the dead. Entropy is real, and we can't avoid it any more than we can avoid the limits to growth or the end of cheap energy.

Let's forget about the next couple of decades and move ahead to the future to see what we will be doing as humans in a post-industrial society.

First, some (maybe naive) assumptions:

1) We have not rendered the earth uninhabitable by intended or unintended radiation poisoning.
2) We have not rendered the earth uninhabitable by the effects of climate change.

Assuming we still have an environment capable of supporting life, technology and the means to implement it have long since gone. We are either in two states of existence, or more likely both at the same time.

The two (or three) long term scenarios:

1) We have reverted back to small agricultural communities limited by locally available resources and practicing permaculture principles.

2) We can no longer organize small communities to the point of developing agriculture and we are limited to living in small bands or tribes that live as hunter-gatherers.

or

3) Some tribes exist, living as hunter gatherers and some small communities exist in an agricultural mode. The most likely scenario in my opinion.

These are our options. They depend on many variables regarding how the societal/environmental collapse occurs and what dangers it presents. Either way, the most pertinent information you can have is any survival methods related to permanent agriculture (permaculture) and wild food harvesting / hunting.

Any time spent investing in other information, ideas or hopes is in my opinion, a complete waste. The greatest way for me to accept the future that is being created before my eyes is to lose all hope. In our current situation, hope and fear are the same thing, as Frank Herbert says in Dune, "Fear is the mind killer." Well, so is hope. Hope leaves us clinging desperately to a dying system of greed and destruction masked as progress.

Well, just my short thoughts on how it will end. Hope you enjoy.

5
Science, Inventions & Techology / Cell Phones - A Preppers Guide
« on: November 07, 2013, 11:57:47 PM »
Cell Phones - A Preppers Guide
by Timothy Dicks

The short:

1) GSM device
2) Full knowledge and operational control of all of the devices communication capabilities
3) The applications and databases that will be useful in a long or short term prepper scenario.

Technology is always adopted slowly in the prepper community. It’s an instinct to stick with what works and can be easily maintained and controlled. But admittedly, technology works much better in some ways to ease the burden of temporary or even long term distress.

Cell phones fit the bill, they are definitely a, if not the most important tool in an emergency situation in which someone elses assistance is needed who is not currently available.

However, there is a perspective in which cell phones can easily become our worst enemy, tracking our every movement, purchase, communication and interests, knowing all, all the time. It is the same world that brings us all the wonders of technology, but demands our obedience.

This is the system we have created for ourselves, the very system that is teetering on the brink of ecological, energy, resource, monetary, political, and religious upheaval. It is a very delicate system that depends on the quivering masses, struggling to keep it afloat, meanwhile we give it more control with every new submission of indulgence.

So how do we take advantage of a cell phone in a safe and effective manner? With any technology, the issue of security mainly comes down to what you don’t let the system do, or in other words, turning the machine off is THE MOST secure way to operate the machine. Now this is very basic, but that is really all it needs to be to understand the cell phone.

What you do not ‘allow’ the device to do is what determines how secure it is depending on the situation.

To cut it short for those using feature phones or lesser cell phones, your best bet is to simply keep them off unless you need to use them and giving up your location and identity are not a concern.

For the more advanced phones like the iPhone, Android devices, or the myriad of other devices with cellular and wifi capabilities, we need to exercise a bit more control.

These amazing devices with life saving information storage capabilities could be priceless in certain scenarios. Many of the preloaded apps have several useful tools for practical tasks, such as a calculator, level, barometer, and temperature, and many more can be downloaded and operated locally on the device.

The trick is in what information is stored on these devices versus what information you are remaining vulnerable to severing by way of the internet.

So lets build a survival Cell Phone, and lets assume we want maximum security at all times.

Maximum security implies that we are at the highest level of security and our location cannot be given up at any time without actively engaging a known risk communication.

Security -

As stated, we are operating at Maximum security and we must be able to retain control at all times. In this case, you have done the first and most important process of removing your sim card. (If you had a CDMA phone, you would have already known to get a GSM phone without the identifying hardware built in by skipping down to the hardware section.) Once the SIM card is removed from the GSM device you would no longer have your device be at risk of being identified by the surrounding cell towers. However you are not in the clear. You will still need to disable the wifi. If there are any open wifi networks in the area, your device may connect and ‘identify’. Oh, but wait.

RFID/NFC,

Yes, RFID is old news in the tech community AND the prepper community by now, but NFC is the new RFID, and it’s out there offering up its conveniences at the price of our willing submission. Keep your eye out for the NFC functionality of your device, and believe it or not, the RFID ability. It was rumored a while ago that the new thing in phones would be RFID, but hey, the RFID tech could already be there simply for inventory purposes, so look out for that. I couldn’t find anything specific to my phone on a quick Google search, oh wait… ;)

The point is to know what your device is capable of and make sure you can maintain control over that ability at all times. Having a cell phone with you but hidden, could still jeopardize your security in close quarters, even if it’s turned off.


Applications -

What we are looking for is applications that can provide extremely quick and useful results to queries that we might have relating to a range of issues including medical, location and survival, among others. Applications that involve communications, and remotely stored databases are of lesser importance and can take up valuable space.

The best advantage in terms of the technologies interactive features is the GPS, hands down. You can download the app, download the maps for your region and never even need a network connection. You would have a fully zoomable GPS mapping device. You can determine your location without risking your location.

There are many information databases available online, but make sure their databases are downloadable and that you have plenty on and off device storage. At this point, entire family albums, modern DVD collections and valuable information can be stored on a handful of small microSD cards.

Think utilitarian and even think outside your thinking box by downloading advanced apps that you might never use but could be useful to advanced tinkerers and other brainiacs you may run into in the new world.

Hardware -

Choosing your hardware usually means choosing something you want more for it’s communication abilities than it’s ‘unconnected’ abilities. But this is really the least important feature in a long term survival scenario. Assuming the worst, your cell phone/tablet becomes a repository for information and a tool for advanced mathematics. Oh and even a GPS. That is if you can keep it running that long without grid power. So you’ll need a portable solar charger, (or two) to keep it going.

Long term you want a powerful processor and possibly a decent way to document the new history that arises out of the ashes of our technocracy.

In the way of security, a GSM device is your priority as you can simply remove the SIM card to no longer identify you to the Cellular network. With a CDM device, it will attempt to identify itself as soon as you power it on.

A Cell phone is a computer today, and a computer is an awesome thing to have. But it’s functionality has long since been overlooked by its ability to perplex humans with endless, random, and sometimes just downright BAD information. In a long term collapse scenario, that ability will more than likely subside as the remaining technology is put more and more to use as a tool rather than a playground.

http://futurereferencefarm.blogspot.com/

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