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Messages - BuddyJ

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1
Energy / Re: Energy, Ecology, Economics (and Politics)
« on: June 29, 2020, 01:21:32 PM »
So, the coffee to smell is, 15 years of happy consumers with lower oil and gas prices? I'm spitballing here, but I doubt that is the coffee you imagined?

Highly unlikely outcome. 

And yet, in the past 40 years, the only outcome. And this time, we have added pressures, to make it even worse for oil companies, and better for consumers. Peak demand, an idea that had been creeping up on the world, suddenly hitting it like Thor's own hammer. I agree that the oil companies may never see a recovery, as they did post-1986, but it will be because peak consumer demand has been met, and environmental pressures and societal pressures will all conspire to never allow demand to reach the heights it once did. Which, while not doom for oil companies, certainly sets up a race to the bottom in terms of cost of the marginal barrel.

Quote from: RE
More likely is a Global Depression, already fairly obvious in the numbers.  But you need to be able to read a graph for this, which you apparently are unable to do, or unwilling to do.

RE

Certainly the pandemic might induce a global depression. But that isn't a resource issue. It is a demand shock.

As far as the doom worthiness of the article, it was pretty good until the author applied the caveats to make it not as big of a deal as some might hope.

Quote

The One Major Misconception About It:

That all is lost. Not exactly.


When we use the word “depression,” the images we conjure up tend to be of Hoovervilles and soup lines circa 1930’s. But the world has come a long way since then, and the last 100 years or so of globalization has catapulted humanity into unprecedented levels of human, economic, political and technological capital. When the Great Depression happened, we didn’t have the social safety nets and political institutions we have today. We also didn’t have a decades-long track record showing the world was better off when cooperating rather than in conflict. Thanks to technology and other advancements, today’s “global middle class” enjoys a quality of life that would have made even the well-off of 1930 envious.

Also, the same things that make pandemics so deadly in 2020—global supply chains and international travel, for example—has also enabled the global interdependence that keeps the world in a relative peace even when the global politics seem to be pushing in the other direction. As a collective whole, humanity is better prepared to weather this depression than we were a century ago.

2
Energy / Re: Energy, Ecology, Economics (and Politics)
« on: June 29, 2020, 12:21:12 PM »
If we are going to discuss energy stuff, why use graphs hiding the fact that Richard really got it wrong, and then modify the work already discredited to try and claim the opposite? Anyone have any permanent blackouts in your hood? Me neither.

RDs timeline wasn't perfect, but the trajectory was right on.  Far as blackouts are concerned, Venezuela isn't doing too good, and neither is Brazil.


When discussing what is going to happen in the future, everyone gets a pass for missing dates and times, to some extent. What is intellectually lethal is doing the same thing over and over again without ever accounting for what you know being wrong, all those other times.

So, for starters, in the previously provided reference, Richard was claiming per capita energy use going down. That trajectory was wrong, as Gail figured out in 2012.



So in this case, the trajectory wasn't right, back when Richard made it circa 2001. His other claim, come 2012, was the world was "permanent blackouts occur worldwide", which doesn't appear to be the same as "idiot leaders driving their countries into the ground" being substituted for lack of per capita energy production/consumption. So I can't agree with Richard getting anything right yet, including a trajectory.

So, we give him a pass because we like his conclusions, even if he can't get to them from data, history, science and the like?

Quote from: RE
Meanwhile, the NG Frackers have taken a financial nosedive into the cellar and demand is crashing all over the worl.  Wake up and smell the coffee.

RE

The financial nosedive of American E&Ps in 1986, caused by the same sort of low prices the world has been experiencing as of late, led to nearly 15 years of global low oil prices for consumers. Now, because of America containing the marginal barrel and mcf of production, and yes, huge volumetric success by those same E&Ps getting oil and gas out of the ground, has crashed prices. Bad for the E&Ps, yes, good for the consumer. Quite similar to 1986. So, the coffee to smell is, 15 years of happy consumers with lower oil and gas prices? I'm spitballing here, but I doubt that is the coffee you imagined?


3
Energy / Re: Energy, Ecology, Economics (and Politics)
« on: June 29, 2020, 11:01:33 AM »
Falling per capita Energy is at the root of just about every social and economic problem there is, and there is nothing that can be done about it and no solution to it besides a lot of Dead People.  Richard Duncan drew the graph back in the 1990s.



We are on the downhill slope now, and there is no escaping it.  It's just a question of how fast we slide down and who will suffer the most.  Right now, the suffering is mainly by the Poor People.  It's Class Warfare and the Rich are winning.  This will remain true until the Monetary System and its concommitant set of Property Laws collapses.  Then, even MORE people will die and at a faster rate.

RE

Richard's original work here:
http://www.energycrisis.com/Duncan/road2olduvai.pdf

Graphic RE uses on page 18, although it has been modified to doom it up. Richard's original work includes the original predictions. Richard declared 2006 as world peak oil, in his Figure 1. Same chart shows Richard predicting that nowadays, the world will be making 65 million/bbls per day. I believe it has been above 80+ for years now. Note 7 on the graph RE uses has been moved from the original, and the note for what happens in the original work not included. For good reason. In the original world, Note(7) was 2012, and the note is that this is when permanent blackouts occur worldwide.

If we are going to discuss energy stuff, why use graphs hiding the fact that Richard really got it wrong, and then modify the work already discredited to try and claim the opposite? Anyone have any permanent blackouts in your hood? Me neither.

Politics and philosophy and social stuff is far cooler in the doom-o-sphere, facts and data related to energy generated collapse are really difficult nowadays. But as long as the topics are social stuff, it becomes vastly more arbitrary, relative and entertaining.


4
Marathon Man Newz / Re: Name Calling Is Not A Coherent Argument.
« on: June 28, 2020, 04:06:20 PM »
This is what has happened to the Diner., and that is the reason I'm less interested each and every day with talking to the regulars who post here. I might be wrong, but I think a lot of people come here to read me, judged by the thread traffic, and I no longer want to give my support to a site that is run by people who are more than willing to lie for a  "good cause"...and who work so hard in support of a narrative that makes less and less sense all the time.

I have posted 70 times in 4 years, and for the crime of knowing, and saying, that some militia moron shooting someone vandalizing some statute was hardly the big event it was being portrayed as, that I am a troll.

70 posts as of this morning. 4 years a lurker. Instant troll for daring to make a practical observation as to what is, or is not, an important sign of collapse.

I liked reading your stuff Eddie, because it isn't just a recycling of "if you make more than minimum wage you are scum" screed. In this world, people aren't allowed to succeed via hard work, only by standing on the backs of the oppressed can you, or anyone else, make it to the lofty position of having some stuff.

Quote from: Eddie
The Diner always had a left of center bias, which I was okay with.....but the Social Justice Activist tribe is so far out in left field...and the Diner is so committed to THE NARRATIVE, that I know I'll have to vote with my feet. I will miss my participation, just like I missed TBP when I decided I didn't agree with their right-wing message. In the subsequent years they've gotten even further out in right field...so I don't suppose it's surprising to see the Diner move hard in the other direction.

Ahh shit Eddie.

Quote from: Eddie
My best bet is to stop writing altogether. There is no longer a platform for a guy like me, AFAIK. I have no need to write anything in order to survive and thrive in the current collapse. My best interests are served by turning invisible, like so many early collapse writers have done. The Diner is not my last stand. I don't need to waste a lot of time calling out trolls and arguing with stupid people about things they only think they understand.

Ahh shit Eddie.


5
Troll on the loose!



RE

70 posts in 4 years.

Yes...it must be trolling. Rather than a forum with about 5 regular members who certainly have no interest in there ever being 6.

Are there any women participating here? Young folks? Folks of color or indigenous origin? Anyone under the age of 50? Just curious.

 

6
Troll alert.

Classic begging the question fallacy: when an argument's premises assume the truth of the conclusion, instead of supporting it.

Chicago run by Democrats. Democrats baaaaaaaaad.
Much worse than some rando larpers shooting an unarmed protestor. Right? Right??

Boy did that go from 0 to 1,000 miles per hour.

I didn't say a word about who runs Chicago, I only noted that if deaths are the metric when watching collapse, or indications of shit hitting in the fan in some major way, there are far better examples than none in Albuquerque than.

Next time I'll use Houston gun violence instead. Will red city/state gun violence stats instead, if it makes you politically happy.


7
If you can't see how that is a very dangerous thing to have showing up at peaceful protests or political demonstrations, then you're pretty wet behind the ears and should probably study history a bit more.

Oh, I think it is a powder keg with a lit match, armed folks at protests. We can debate the peaceful part I suppose, as folks doing the usual vandalism routine might not qualify, but this ended up being a nothing burger. Hence my original inquiry, and being proven correct after the fact didn't hurt either.

But you interpreted this completely differently, and were wrong. No shit hitting a fan, no real drama, whatever "it" was in your title was perhaps "run of mill protest goes sideways, guns involved, no one killed....more important stuff after the following toothpaste commercial"?


8
A single protester wounded in gun violence during a shoving and pushing match in New Mexico is worthy of note, let alone of being evidence of collapse, when compared to the social fabric of Chicago continuing to dissolve?

Yes.

RE

Well now there must be a good reason why? Did you or someone here know either the perpetrator or victim in Albuquerque?

9
I've been saying it for a long while: Guys in military garb and assault rifles should not show up in large numbers at peaceful protests. And they did; and they spilled the blood of a peaceful protester in gear which made them appear to be military.

This is off the charts, people.

Made middle of the nightly news the evening it happened. The videos came out soon thereafter showing what went down, and it blew over without being more than a blurb. Not even on the charts.

Any particular reason why what very well might be construed by a jury as a self defense shooting resonates so strongly with you?

10
I'm watching live. Someone was shot by a right wing militia member at a peaceful protest.

And....this is more important than first order principles like resource depletion, endless government debt and pandemics because...guns, a low death count and the us versus them meme offers more....entertainment?

There isn't a ranking system here in order of importance.  It's another manifestation of Collapse to keep track of.

RE

The weekend before June 1 in Chicago there were 85 people shot, 24 fatally.

A single protester wounded in gun violence during a shoving and pushing match in New Mexico is worthy of note, let alone of being evidence of collapse, when compared to the social fabric of Chicago continuing to dissolve?



11

If the USA is to be a nation of laws, enforced by police, can we please have laws that protect our First Amendment right of speech and assembly? Or is it now legal for the First Amendment to be trumped by the Second Amendment's right to keep and bear arms?

Do we think that the First Amendment covers destroying property along with the right of (mostly) free speech? Not all free speech events involve vandalism and riot of course, any more than they involve firearms. I wonder how we fix both problems at once?




12
I'm watching live. Someone was shot by a right wing militia member at a peaceful protest.

And....this is more important than first order principles like resource depletion, endless government debt and pandemics because...guns, a low death count and the us versus them meme offers more....entertainment?

13
Energy / Re: Fracker Debt Bubble
« on: June 13, 2020, 06:47:55 PM »
The moral of the story being....folks who drill really need to learn to stop before they succeed so well they destroy the price of the very commodity they need to survive? Seems pretty basic really, and surprising that the companies themselves don't get it.

14
Energy / Re: Fracker Debt Bubble
« on: January 17, 2020, 04:51:11 PM »
On its last legs indeed, and via the usual mechanism. The polluting bastards just can't figure out when to stop until oversupply clobbers prices and half of them go bankrupt. You would think they would learn or something.

15
The Kitchen Sink / Re: Collapse of Global Industrial Civilization is Nigh
« on: January 16, 2020, 03:30:45 AM »
Collapse is certain but whether it is "nigh" or not is unknowable (assuming nigh means within a couple of years). And will it really be a collapse or a long decline? No-one knows.

Well..sure. But thinking about it that way doesn't make it very fun to talk about. It is almost a given that people want to discuss and plan and prepare for doom within their lifetime, maybe because in that timeframe there is actual urgency?  Look how difficult a time the climate change folks are having selling action plans when they don't have much in the way of near term disasters to use as a motivator. Rising sea levels...but not enough to drive folks off the Atlantic barrier islands. More and bigger hurricanes...and MAYBE you'll see one in your lifetime, and for folks who have learned to deal with hurricanes, what does it matter if instead of a Cat 2 they get a Cat 3? Same with tornadoes. They just have a rough go of it without a decent near term consequence.

Economic doom is far more interesting because it can happen literally within days.

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