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Messages - K-Dog

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3061
Diner Newz & Multimedia / Re: Barbarism Versus Stupidism
« on: September 23, 2014, 12:07:21 PM »
Hmmmm,  There is this:

jin·go·ism  - Extreme nationalism characterized especially by a belligerent foreign policy; chauvinistic patriotism.

Then there is Jim Kunstler:

"The US public does not seem to have groked the damage to our honor, self-confidence, and international standing in this debacle."

Could this go in a dangerous direction?  And about this.

We’re all set up for a classic state of siege with the Pentagon militarizing every Podunk police department in the land, and one can easily imagine a single IS operation aimed at some soft American target shoving us into hysteria.

That last quote could prime one to accept a false-flag attack.  Not you or me of course, it will soak into somebody else’s unconscious not ours.  The Pentagon and Podunk police department mention seems to be off topic but it has the bad effect of generating a bit of confusion while the next part of the sentence is read. 

Jim's wording broadcasts the idea that a single IS operation could shove us into hysteria.  That goes into the ears one way and is processed by the grey matter floating between the ears in an altogether different way.  It gets interpreted at an emotional level as IS is going to attack before it gets filed away.  The reason is your gut is not going to accept justifiable outrage at a real IS attack as hysteria.  It will be seen as justifiable.  I'm sure that was not Jim Kunstler's intent but that is the effect of his words.  You've been primed to get real angry if IS attacks with justifiable outrage, not hysteria.  Which is fine if IS is the responsible party behind an attack.  But if an attack happens wouldn't it be better if we had cool heads figuring out what is really going on before we all start marching in step and

  .


3062
Diner Newz & Multimedia / Re: Barbarism Versus Stupidism
« on: September 23, 2014, 11:30:37 AM »

Not that BHO ever went far beyond the campaign slogans in offering "change." In his dealings with Congress, for example, he insisted in bringing a knife to a gunfight. As a former community organizer, he tried consensus-building and conciliation; he needed some vicious kneecappers and nutbusters to deal with these troglodytes. . .


I don't necessarily disagree with you but consider bringing a knife to a gunfight as a kind of stupidity.  Kunster's article is called 'Barbarism Versus Stupidism'.  Just going with the theme for a moment lets equate the two here.  One then argues that  BHO's actions might be a form of Barbarism.  The barbaric actions of a Manchurian candidate groomed to be the meathead in charge by financial interests for years before we ever heard of him.  Financial crisis 2008 remember?  He had 'experts' to help him out all lined up.  Or was it the other way around?  He did not look hard to find them.  He had them already.  Maybe bringing a knife to a gunfight was what he was supposed to do.

Just playing with Jims title.

3063
Environment / Re: Cli-Fi!
« on: September 23, 2014, 10:40:27 AM »
LOL

But with the ball of tuft at the end of my tail you'd still know I was king of the jungle.

3064
Surly Newz / Re: The Surlynewz Channel
« on: September 23, 2014, 10:27:37 AM »
@ eddie & Surly1 

Go sister go.  No, that was not a smart thing to do.  No fucking kidding.  Youth talking, strong youth  Young and indestructible she had to make her STATEMENT!   Now she gets to find out nobody cares and all she did was fuck herself over.  F-bomb.  A whole lot different dropping it in here than on the air.  Wonder it wasn't beeped out.  In fact asking why it was not bleeped is a very good question.  Then they show the co-worker.  I'd say those beotches were not tight.  No spit swapping between them on their smoke breaks.

But then since they knew she was involved with the Alaska Cannabis Club (owner or something) they were going to can her ass anyway.  Still it gained her nothing.

3065
Environment / Re: Cli-Fi!
« on: September 23, 2014, 08:34:45 AM »
This quote button is so cool.  :D


Inland was just bearable for me and the people I knew there told me that was a nice pleasant spell. Darwin itself was unbearable. 38C and  almost 100% humidity.


Yikes, there is not supposed to be anywhere on the planet were the conditions are fatal yet!  From what inspired my split world.

"Peak heat stress, quantified by the wet-bulb temperature TW, is surprisingly similar across diverse climates today. TW never exceeds 31 °C. Any exceedence of 35 °C for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans and other mammals, as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible."

I may need that Paris Hilton poodle cut sooner than I think!

3066
Environment / Re: Cli-Fi!
« on: September 23, 2014, 08:15:21 AM »
How do you get Antarctica Fertile for growing food crops?

The brotherhood has been working on getting things to grow in Antarctica for a while.  Several generations.  They have had some success but not yet at growing much food there.  (Or so they say.) The early council of deciders which started the Antarctica Terraforming Guild had some information they found in their knowledge vaults which inspired them. 

  Mount Saint Helens.

The primary reason they contacted the Siberian Union is something different but one reason was because their knowledge vaults also told them about this:

          “Doomsday Seed Vault” in the Arctic

3067
Environment / Re: Cli-Fi!
« on: September 22, 2014, 11:54:06 PM »
Yes Ugo posted something about it 14 hours ago at his place.  I'm on my way over there but stopped in to see what was up.  The fantastic thing is that I did not listen to the podcast until today, only about four hours ago.  My story is somewhat of a coincidence spawned by the recent discussion of Cli-Fi at Ugo's place and also at the Archdruid report. 

I've been following both for years and comment at both Ugo and Johns place regularly.  Tomorrow I celebrate one of the four corners by burning a candle. 

Your podcast and my story were generated by the same discussion and interest on blogs we both mutually visit.  That my time frame is in-between Ugo and Jim Laughters just happened to work out that way. At my blog two weeks ago I wrote about how the population could possibly decline to a five percent target over the next 300 years.  That I'd choose a time frame of hundreds of years comes from that post probably.  The actual story time frame is a bit longer. How long would it take for jungles to grow.  For unsettled area's to forget about man?   A longer time frame too because monsta was being a bit of a dog himself when he complemented me today.

Nice story and very well written. Makes me wonder what will happen when these people meet the people of the south. Do you have any plans on continuing this story?

I wasn't but his comment got me going like he was waving bacon in front of my face.  I sure have had some ideas since and worse than running to a keyboard I've been writing ideas down in a notebook. 

The Brotherhood had a charismatic leader that made the south what it is by the time of their first encounter with the Siberian Union.  The crew of the Southern Cross will be very surprised at what they see when they meet.  The brotherhood started from what the south had as the equivalent to the church during our dark ages.  Their Physicians Guild.  The only surviving institution of their dark ages  It had a particular philosophy on which their enlightened one built.  His disciples saved bodies, he saved mankind.

The Antarctic has a large essentially untapped oil deposit of light sweet crude which the crew of the Southern Cross will soon learn about.  It is easy to get at and has an EROEI higher than anything left in our world today. 

But whatever you are thinking about where I might take that fact.  You could be wrong.  A game changer for the Siberian Union yes.  But how?

Most definitely a world spilt in two could be a new sub-genre!  I think it already is.

3068
Environment / Re: Cli-Fi!
« on: September 22, 2014, 04:01:56 PM »
Enough people seem to like it.  Thank you for the praise.

@monsta - I actually wrote a story and found I can do it!  I should continue the saga or find another equally captivating theme.  Not just for the sake of doing it of course. I won't do it unless I think it might be enjoyed.  Like this one. 

Starting from the reasonable possibility that what I wrote about can happen I started building this idea of a split world.  It is in my head now and won't go away.  if the vision compels me to share an insight it provides I'll be unable to resist.  These brotherhood characters could be interesting.  I know they consider a certain ancient Argentinian doctor to be a saint and their idea of how society should be organized might be quite different from how the north lands think.

The possibility of being struck by lightning while standing in line to buy groceries and then needing to run to a keyboard sometime soon is high.

3069
Environment / Re: Reasonable discussion on climate changes issues...
« on: September 22, 2014, 11:46:37 AM »
Maybe we are not talking about the same graph.  I feel like moving on about that anyway because that whole article was digressing on the value of a single data set.  My basic position is that there is little to criticize if there is no historical air temperature record and the people at Hadley are being intellectually honest.  I've no reason to believe they are not.

Regarding exponential Vs. linear relationships.  Exponential relationships are often treated as linear relationships over short ranges of the independent variable.  Over short regions a linear approximation is easier to deal with and the error is not significant. If the error is significant then a linear approximation is not appropriate.

Here is a graph that illustrates the point.



Don't panic I'm not trying to teach calculus.  It is just that this is a good graph to use.  Between x and x + dx the green and blue lines deviate little.  Over this region a linear approximation (the straight line) is probably just fine.  It depends on the circumstances.

Talking about climate sensitivity as a linear temperature change with respect to doubling of CO2 does not really sound right to me either.  But if we are talking about the heating resulting from a change of 370 to 390 ppm of CO2 concentration we will be getting double the heating that a 370 to 380 ppm change would give to an excellent degree of approximation.

It may be a question of semantics and not ignorance but don't rule ignorance out.  If the additional heat caused by the extra 10ppm results in a lot of Arctic methane being burped up the approximation may be inappropriate.

3070
Environment / Re: Reasonable...
« on: September 21, 2014, 09:19:02 PM »
And why is a  reasonable discussion on climate changes issues impossible. 

I found someone who knows the answer.

“I think the answer is far more simple than many have led us to believe: We have not done the things needed to cut emissions because those things fundamentally conflict with deregulated capitalism, the reigning ideology for the entire period we have struggled to find a way out of this crisis. We are stuck, because the actions that would give us the best chance of averting catastrophe—and benefit the vast majority—are threatening to an elite minority with a stranglehold over our economy, political process and media.”  - Naomi Klein

3071
Environment / Re: Reasonable discussion on climate changes issues...
« on: September 21, 2014, 09:10:07 PM »

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/climate-scientist-who-got-it-right-predicts-20-more-years-global


You sure can pick em.  You've been sourceWatched now twice in a thread.

Cybercast News Service (CNS) is a subsidiary of the conservative news monitoring group, the Media Research Center (MRC). Originally calling itself the "Conservative News Service," CNS changed its name to Cybercast in 2000.[1]  - SourceWatch

The Center for Media and Democracy (CMD) publishes SourceWatch, this collaborative, specialized encyclopedia of the people, organizations, and issues shaping the public agenda. SourceWatch profiles the activities of front groups, PR spinners, industry-friendly experts, industry-funded organizations, and think tanks trying to manipulate public opinion on behalf of corporations or government. We also highlight key public policies they are trying to affect and provide ways to get involved. In addition, SourceWatch contains information about others who help document information about PR spin, such as reporters, academics, and watchdog groups.

@JDwheeler  You had an issue about how I interpreted a graph.  Read what I wrote again, you got what I wrote wrong.  Levels were irrelevant to me, I was concerned with slope.  Which is up and up.

3072
Environment / Re: Reasonable discussion on climate changes issues...
« on: September 21, 2014, 08:43:27 PM »
Nuclear power plants pump a hell of a lot of hot water into the ocean too, over the long term i think this has to have an effect.

Also King, while the GOM might not have had increased typhoon/cyclone activity other tropical places seem to like the south china sea and northeast coast of australia.

Your blasts of hot air in here has as an effect a heating of the earth far greater than all the hot water dumped in all the oceans in the world by Nuclear Plants ever will.

3073
Diner Newz & Multimedia / Re: Nunanut (A K-Dog Cli-Fi Story)
« on: September 21, 2014, 02:21:05 PM »
Thanks,

I put some thought into it.  The theme comes from finding out about wet bulb temperature.  I had to read up on sailing ships too.  What I said about square sails taking more crew is true.  Now as to the equatorial zone being wet enough to support a four tier-rainforest inhabited only by creepy crawly things  I don't know.  Climate models rewritten to account for Gaia farting methane as her tush thaws might show desert. One big desert where the humidity gets periodically high enough to kill everyone south of Charlotte N.C. and north of Montevideo Uruguay.  To live there you would have to soak yourself in chilled water maybe thirty days out of the year or else.  Maybe another story?

Thanks again for putting it on your blog.  If I go to my website from somebody else’s computer I find a warning screen which says if you go forward very bad things may happen.  Loss of first born children or something.  Without some help nobody might see my story.  And the thing is there is no way a warning should be there as:

http://chasingthesquirrel.com/

is hosted at fatcow.



That image comes from a folder in the space I rent at fatcow.  I put it there.  They are a very good company that has been giving me great service.  But it is almost like there are evil goblins infecting websites at random or something.  There is no reason going to my web site should be unsafe. 

It explains a few things though.  Like how my total visit count is only about 5K when my profile says.



Let's see, 178 K divided by 5 Kish is about  36 Kish so one in thirty-six people proceed from my profile to my website.

I'm thinking an evil red white and blue goblin I'd like to make just black and blue is behind it.  Without you my story would molder away from rot and mildew in the tropical jungle I created.  It is almost like my right to pursue happiness is being messed with.  There is such a thing right?

Thanks again.

3074
Diner Newz & Multimedia / Nunanut (A K-Dog Cli-Fi Story)
« on: September 21, 2014, 11:09:12 AM »

Nunanut

Near the summit leopards roam.  Pushed up from the jungle below for generations it's been death for them to follow prey too far down the mountain.  Down the mountain to the plain below at the mountain base leopards once hunted but now even their prey will not go.  A mountain of life capped by green jungle where once snow gleamed white over wooded and grassy plains all was changed.  Thick jungle covered everything now and only on the mountain top could a leopard live.

The jungle on the plain was hot and wet with a killing heat not like the desert heat of the far north and south.  The deserts were hotter than here.  But dry, and with water still a place where one could live.  Heat here was less but with air saturated with water this heat killed.  In this jungle sweat and breath could not cool and animals not heat tolerant and people all died.  No men or large bests had lived on the flat plain below the mountain since the jungle had climbed over the snows and made a hilltop oasis where life still bloomed.

The steaming jungle on the plains of this new world gave heatstroke to all.  Silent steaming dark and foreboding, this jungle stretches impassible and endlessly to the sea.  Insects and small slithering things its only inhabitants.  From the ground layers of vegetation hide the sky.  Overhead afternoon storms rain down unseen from the ground below onto the canopy.  Only the rumble of thunder makes their presence know in the empty jungle below.

Far from the mountain where the green carpet reaches the sea, the endless storm rages.  It grows strong and then weak, it begins to lull but it always rebounds to full fury and it never stops raging.  For hundreds of years it has raged never stopping.  As long as this jungle has ruled the plain its companion has been this storm.  A angry storm and a lonely jungle where men who dared to go will surly die.  Yet far out to sea and to the north beyond where the grey curtain of the endless storms edge rains to the sea a boat crashed through waves.

Ron pulled the red striped boom line tight and finished his knot to the boom cleat.  With one hand on the red stripe and one on the matching redundant blue line he steadied himself for the crash of next wave looming ahead over the bow.  Dizzy and weak each plunge into the waves was getting harder to bear.  It took more effort to hold firm with every crash.  Waves of nausea washed over Ron.  The hot breath of the sea in his face.  Job done it was time to go in.

Ron's crew made way for the pilot house door.  He the last one to drag himself in.  Door closed Dmitry the captain looked at him and asked "All secure?"  Ron looking at him managed a nod and a smile, it was all that was needed.  Dmitry didn't need words he knew his men were exhausted.  This far south any topside errand quickly drained strength.  The last reading of the wet bulb thermometer said long enough up it would kill.

Ron drank in the cool dry cabin air into his lungs.  His sea and sweat soaked skin luxuriating in the  refreshing cool of the refrigerated cabin air.

"Power on number three" said Dmitry. And with his last word hanging in the air Ablah his ships pilot pressed the glow plug button for engine number three and the timing light glowed yellow.  When it blinked off she pressed the starter down and the number three tac needle thumped up to cranking speed and then bursting up to a powerful idle she let the starter go.

Dmitry picked up the microphone to the ships intercom and announced.  "All sails stowed.  Booms one two and three secure.  Gentlemen we're going south.  All hands prepare to come about"  Then laying the microphone down he said to Ablah."  Pilot, at your pleasure, due south.  Full speed."  Dmitry was a good captain.  He kept formality to a minimum but didn't let it go.  His manner an internal and external check list that kept everything going right.

Ablah engaged the clutch to engine number three and its generator pushed 75 extra kilowatts onto the ships power grid.  Furling sails and tying booms down she had only needed engines one and two to generate power.  Three had been off to save fuel.  Number one and two together gave 220 kilowatts which moved The Cross along nicely but from here to the other side of the storm ahead the ship would be going at full power.

The Southern Cross displaced 360 tons and from bow to stern was 51 meters long.  Steel, wood and composites made up her bones and skin.  She was built to explore.  Tight and seaworthy she carried no cargo, only the supplies and fuel her crew of fourteen would need on their voyage.  She had maps to tell where she was going yet her destination was unknown.  The southern half of the world had not been visited by a northern man for hundreds of years.  The equator was a zone of fatal killing humidity.  North and south of the equator it was hotter but with water men could live.  Not here, in the equatorial zone humidity prevented people from cooling off.  At the equator heat first incapacitated then killed.

The Southern Cross was the only ship of her kind.  From afar she could be taken for a polar trading schooner of similar size but she had the rigging of a smaller vessel.  In the northern sea her size might be rigged as a barque or as barquentine with fast square sails.  She had none of them.  All her rigging was fore-and-aft.  Management of her sails had to be easy and square sails took more crew and effort to manage.  Where she was going trips too long out of the air conditioned cocoon of the living spaces below decks would be fatal.

Up close she was no polar trader.  Boats in the north were all wood.  Cascadian teak and and Alaskan Redwood they moved lumber to Greenland returning with grain and hemp from that new land.  Wood ships had plied the seas before the age of oil and now with the earth healing with all available oil burned up and gone they sailed the polar sea and the northern parts of the big oceans once again.  Along coasts they traded goods traveling between places wherever men could live as far south as the great desert.  All wood and no engines they worked until they sank or rotted past their intended purpose.

The Cross was different.  If polar traders were like wood and fabric airplanes from the dawn of flight the Southern Cross was like a jet aircraft from the late twentieth century.  Below decks she had the character of a submarine.  A sealed chamber of mechanical equipment cables and pipes with ducting everywhere covering her overhead spaces. Taking everything in and she was like living inside a giant machine. Air in was chilled and dehumidified before circulated around the living spaces.  Several redundant and handmade systems accomplished that task.  Life depended on it.  Diesel powered generators ran everything and drank energy rich New York palm oil from tanks in stowage and from tanks below deck.  Engines needed for when the chaos and heat of the storm would make sailing impossible were electric.  They too ran from the generators.

Nine weeks into her voyage her main generators had been only been running for three.  As she drove south it had become hot.  Three weeks back the ships air vents had been closed and her cooling systems turned on.  By now the crew would have been unable to work topside without it.  That morning her sea motors had been turned on and the ship put into the wind to furl sails.  Now with everything topside tied down and secure with the last generator up and running she was driving due south at nine knots.

Ron moved down the companionway from the pilothouse.  Along the the main central passage ahead to a cold shower and dry clothes.

Refreshed and dry throwing his wet clothes into an empty dryer Ron made his way to the saloon.  There weighed down by the delicious smell of fresh coffee a comfortable chair and the new feel of a ship sailing under power Ron was not expecting an ambuscade when Zhang sat down.

"How do you know they don't want to eat us" said Zhang.  Hundreds of years of radio silence from the southern hemisphere and then out of nowhere we start getting pictures of paradise.  I think they are trying to lure us down because they are hungry. Why so friendly all of a sudden."

Ron looked into Zhang's eyes for a playful gleam.  Finding none he replied.

"If they knew what people from New China were known to eat I don't think you would have anything to worry about Zhang."

"Ah you think I'm being funny but we really don't know what has been going on down there do we?" Zhang retorted.  Pausing only for a quick breath and before Ron could say anything he went on. "The whole story could be a put on and a plan to get us to go down there.  They had dark ages just like we did sure, I get that.  But why the silence afterwards.  This religious reasons story isn't making sense to me.  Something doesn't add up."

Ron smiled wondering what Zhang had been thinking about. Then he said. "Are you afraid they will buy New China and move in just like Old China did when it bought Canada before the dark ages began?"

"That's not exactly how it happened, it was more complicated than that.  You must have been reading the propaganda the American Dictator put out just before things fell apart.  The ones with money skipped out and moved north just like the rich Chinese and nobody was ever stopped from getting to Alaska far as I know.  They all had ten days free passage before they could be enslaved.  I'm just afraid there could be something devious behind the Southern Leagues invitation and I think we should think about it.  I got to thinking about how much this ship tells about us and that maybe giving the Southern League so much information might not be a good idea."

"It's a little late for that.  A voyage six years in the making on a ship that took three years to build.  I've been talking to them for a bit over five years from the University of Iqaluit Zhang, get a grip.

Radio in the south was strictly controlled and only used as permitted by their Brotherhood of Gaia for over 230 years.  The brotherhood allowed no wireless entertainment broadcast of any kind and anybody but a navigator for the brotherhood caught using a transmitter would be tried for treason.  It was a really big deal to them.  There was never a real radio silence; it is just that nobody would ever talk to us.  They have been using radio ever since the brotherhood took them from their dark ages but only as allowed for shipping and brotherhood government business under supervision and with training.  Their people feared Americans might still be around to spy on them.  That with a moral dictum of no wireless entertainment from the ruling brotherhood was all it took to maintain the quiet.  Nobody dared break the rules.

But all the time the Brotherhoods inner circle, those who could read and who were allowed to have old records and learning were listening to us.  Now that we are all united under the Siberian Union they deemed us safe enough to contact.  That's why they waited until only six years ago to break their radio silence.

Zhang, before that they were afraid you would eat them!"

Enjoying hearing himself talk Ron went on.

"Besides which they are not as big as we are.  Steaming rain forests on the south coast of Australia, the north island of New Zealand, and the very tip of the south African coast.  The south island of New Zealand, Tierra del Fuego and Tasmania their only breadbaskets.  Forests in Antarctica supply lumber but overall they are not any further along with terraforming Antarctica than we are with terraforming North Greenland.  Getting plants to survive the long winter night is as hard for them as it is for us.  Like us they are succeeding but it is slow.  Having some luck with the usual grasses and with some Eucalyptus variants like their Antarctican forest trees.

Their entire population is less than that what we have in South Greenland and Labrador alone so I think they should be worrying more about the dietary habits of Nunavut Chinese than we should worry about them"

Ron looked at the wall clock.  Then he said.

"Look, I've radio duty in ten minutes and have to run back and see if Dmitry wants anything.  I have been trading recipes with Fulberto on the Northern Star for a few weeks now and it is only ten days until we rendezvous with them on the other side of the storm.  I'll ask him if he would like you for dinner before or after we arrive in Rio Grande.  Maybe you should be doing something to season your meat."

3075
Environment / Re: Reasonable discussion on climate changes issues...
« on: September 20, 2014, 11:02:04 AM »
Regarding:
 
To make it even more interesting here is some more fuel for the fire http://euanmearns.com/hadcrut4-strikes-out/.

There is no long term air temperature record covering the entire globe.  HadCRUT4 uses surface ocean temperature to reconstruct air temperatures which cover the entire globe.  Well what else you gonna do?

Roger has a problem with this because he says 'corrections' are used to generate the data.  He admits he does not know what the 'corrections' are but apparently considers them invalid.  Logically I have a problem with that.  I don't take my 'best guesses' as invalid.  If they have corrective assumptions I'll recognize they may have margins of error but I don't throw them away and call them invalid.  They are my best guesses. 

Regarding sea and air temperature, a one to one temperature mapping from sea to air is ridiculous. Some procedure must be developed to generate a realistic number from the sea data.  Without knowing what the procedure is I can't criticize it, but Roger does.

This graph is interesting.



Roger concentrates on the difference in height, that red does not cover blue.  He neglects that trend lines for the red and blue data sets have almost identical slopes.  A slope which means climate change.  Specifically global warming.  Slope means change, flat lines mean no change.  And the slopes show the same amount.  The odds of that happening by chance is very very small.

His own graph needs to go to the bottom of the sea along with the missing heat which produced the “early-2000s hiatus”.



Roger has a problem with how corrections are done to the HadCRUT4 data but he doesn't explain how he selected his black line data.  He says:

"I put together a surface air temperature time series from scratch using ~1,000 selected and unadjusted Global Historic Climate Network (GHCN v2) records."

How is that fair?  I have to reject his data for the same reason he rejects HadCRUT4.  He didn't tell me how he selected his data.

Roger's article is something of an aside as it only discusses the validity of a particular data set and not if climate models actually work.  I present the following article to back up my claim that climate modelling is a valid activity to be taken seriously.

Progress on Decadal Climate Prediction

That earlier models could not properly account for heat transfer to the deep oceans is not mysterious.   Two models working together are needed to show that.  A model to simulate the ocean and another for the atmosphere.  Together they become one big simulation and expecting such a complex simulation to account for everything correctly on a first run is unreasonable.  Discrepancies between models and reality over time are needed to show where assumptions, procedure and model coefficients need to be adjusted.  As I said previously 'tweaked' so a model predicts reality. 

Regardless fine tools now exist as my article describes.



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