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Frostbite Falls Newz / 🌎 New Global Collapse Forum: Kickoff
« Last post by RE on April 17, 2021, 10:57:06 PM »
Somebody suggested we get started at the new Global Collapse Forum early.  I'm going to start a Kickoff thread there.

https://globalcollapse.createaforum.com/general-discussion/following-in-the-footsteps-of-the-doomstead-diner/

RE
2
History / Historical Roots of Polarization: Democracy or Oligarchy?
« Last post by knarf on April 17, 2021, 05:03:24 AM »
In her 2020 book, How the South Won the Civil War: Oligarchy, Democracy and the Continuing Fight for the Soul of America, Heather Cox Richardson provides a history of the two opposing ideas that are rooted in US history and may be the source of the political polarization seen today. She notes, “From its founding, American has stood at the nexus of democracy and oligarchy” (p. 22). The Civil War and the many legislative battles, increasing or decreasing oppression of minorities, in states and at the federal levels, were fueled by these competing ideologies.

From the 1930s to the 1980s, a vastly popular “liberal consensus” developed that focused on “creating economic security and equality of opportunity” through the protection of the vulnerable and regulation of the economy to avert vast inequality” (p. xiv). Although the federal government still favored white people in many of its policies, opportunities for increased well-being and wealth generation were opened to minorities. Even Superman, when he first appeared in 1938 admonished schoolchildren that if they heard anyone talk against another because of their race, religion, or national origin, “don’t wait” to “tell him that kind of talk is un-American” (p. xxv).

But another root of US culture is white elite male supremacy. The "founding fathers" were landed slave-holding gentry. “Without irony, Virginian James Madison crafted the Constitution to guarantee that wealthy slaveholders would control the new government” (p. 21). The Founders did not include the non-wealthy, non-male in their view that "all men are created equal."

In the Founders' worldview, women, African slaves, Native peoples, and the poor were all inferior and could not handle the power of participating in societal decision making. All those others were not capable or worthy enough for self-determination like the white wealthy male. And the wealthy males relied on the labor of their wives, slaves, and others to make and keep their wealth. “In the Founders’ minds, then, the principle of equality depended on inequality” (p. xv).

Nevertheless, over the course of history, US policies grew to enable poor white men to advance and be treated almost equally with elite white males. “While Europe was mired in oligarchy, Americans had faith that God had made them capable of managing their own affairs” (p. 25). The 20th century saw advances for minorities and women.

However, the countermovement to these progressive trends, Movement Conservatism, initiated in the 1950s, took up the alternative root of US culture: that the elite should have wealth trickle up to them from the non-elites, along with the power to make decisions "for the good of all."

“Like elite slaveholders before the Civil War, they believed in a world defined by hierarchies, where most people—dull, uneducated, black, female, weak, or poor—needed the guidance of their betters” (p. xiv). Their work at menial tasks would be accumulated in the hands of their betters, who knew how to use it to create progress.

Richardson documents how Movement Conservatives started in the 20th century to lay out the same arguments that the elite slave owners in the 19th century had. Both groups believed they alone knew how to run the country and so the non-loyal had to be prevented from accessing the tools of government. Both groups “suppressed voting, rigged the mechanics of government, silenced the opposition press, and dehumanized their opponents” and felt themselves above the law (p. xvii).

Because facts and reason don’t work to argue for inequality, people in both groups reject expertise and invent stories to support their view of the world—for example, that Southern white men were incapable of selfishness and servility, that those who are not loyal followers are lazy, non-Christian, or enemies. Both groups blame “East coast liberals” for the nation’s problems. Both groups have faith that “if the government simply turned rich men loose to work their magic, they would create ever-expanding prosperity and everyone would get richer” (p.180).

In his book, Evil Geniuses, Kurt Anderson describes in detail a shift in the US away from the liberal consensus of fairness for all with the superrich’s manipulation of laws and politics to tilt the playing field towards themselves, with the effect of hollowing out the middle class. Inequality has never been greater, burgeoning since the 1980s with what economists call the “Great Divergence” in wealth. The wealthy have more power than ever. In this way, the tendency toward oligarchy may have “won” over democracy—for now.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/moral-landscapes/202010/historical-roots-polarization-democracy-or-oligarchy
4
Geopolitics / Is NOW the time for a third party?
« Last post by knarf on April 16, 2021, 06:23:30 AM »
I have joined the People's Party and will sign the petition in Missouri to get the Party active in elections. It is aimed at grass roots individuals not corporations and big business. I will be joining a regional Zoom meeting on Sunday afternoon to develop strategies to expand the Partie's recognition and platform.

"The People’s Platform emerged from Bernie Sanders’ first presidential campaign platform. It was developed, voted on and adopted by our members in March of 2018. The final People’s Party platform will be developed and passed by members at the founding convention in 2021."

https://peoplesparty.org/platform/

I was going to vote for Howard Dean and Bernie but the Democratic establishment knocked them both out of the running. I just read that AOC has basically denounced her Democratic Socialist agenda and has firmly embraced Biden's plans to "heal" America's multiple humongous inequalities. I don't understand how she could make such a ideological change all of a sudden. It basically leaves just a handful of real Democratic Socialist leaders in the Federal Government, and they will be powerless now to adopt the sweeping change from big money politics to a humane based politics.

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/03/26/aoc-m26.html

Chris Hedges thinks that forming a grass roots party is needed RIGHT NOW if we are to have a chance to survive the collapse of our world. The Democratic Establishment is stuck in BAU, and will not change enough to tackle the inequities.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/NYMtX1jbJCE&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/NYMtX1jbJCE&fs=1</a>

Biden is already making massive compromises that are not what he promised in his campaign.

"Joe Biden has now been president for a full month. Recently, he held a town hall at CNN where he, as Joe Biden is wont to do, stuck his foot in his mouth several times. Two instances stand out immediately: Joe Biden’s claim that the nation “didn’t have” the coronavirus vaccine when he came into office and his claim that people in the Black and Hispanic communities don’t know how to use the internet to find out where to get vaccinated.

Not only are both of these claims extraordinarily false, but they are equally laughable. Biden not only received his vaccine a month before taking office, but it was covered on national news. His statement regarding Black and Hispanic Americans is not only extraordinarily patronizing, suggesting we need an education campaign because these communities can’t use the internet, but it’s also extraordinarily racist.
This is symptomatic of a larger problem with the first month of Joe Biden’s presidency. Biden is lying and misrepresenting his agenda as president."

http://www.ntdaily.com/bidens-broken-promises/

What do you think about the timing of going all in to form a People's Party? Is it a pipe dream? Will it be a spoiler for the Democratic party if it emerges?


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Knarfs Knewz / Re: Rewilding 18 acres : Pics from this morning and a vision Eddie
« Last post by Eddie on April 15, 2021, 05:20:46 PM »
Enjoy!  :icon_sunny:

Beautiful spring! Look at all that water.

I imagined that you and I took that morning stroll together. It was really fulfilling finally meeting you and being in your presence. I felt such a close kinship with you in a personal and idealistic way. Though we may never meet, at least I have this vision of our walk in a rewilding forest together!!

That is a very nice thought Knarf. I always wanted to visit your place. I’ve always thought it was very special, and that you are somebody very worth getting to know.
6
Economics / Re: Hyperinflation or Deflation?
« Last post by John of Wallan on April 15, 2021, 04:32:01 PM »
Come on fellas, Lets have some predictions to break the boredom:

1. When will markets crash and by how much?
2. When will property bubble in Oz burst?
3. What is the world going to look like in 5 and 10 years time?

Winner gets a sheep station. There are a few cheap ones out West.

JOW

My short answers.
1. In the next 3 months.
2. 2022
3, Watch Mad Max. (The original 1979 film) .
My long answers are a few pages back from memory..

Alan Watts is an arrogant, pompous, phony...he is the Wests super star of all eastern philosophy. Take him with a grain of salt. The point in posting that video was it is just speculation predicting the unknowable future. But I am addicted to seeing the future in visions. Sometimes I get close, other times not so much. So many things can effect the prediction along the way, but who cares.

1. I don't think the markets will crash any time soon. The billionaires are stuffing their coffers and are making more money everyday with their super algorithms to glean .5 cents on thousands of investments.  International trade is still very important. When there is still buying and selling at such a high volume the market will thrive...the rest of us will be deprived.

2. I don't have the experience to predict the housing bubble there, but this guy thinks the housing market is in deep trouble, NOW.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/YPnsszIEYIM&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/YPnsszIEYIM&fs=1</a>

3. This is a tough one. The way things are going here in the FSOA, none of us will be alive to have a future if the mass shootings keep happening EVERYDAY. :) I think there is going to be a fourth wave of the pandemic from the variants, and the vaccines will be ineffective to STOP it from continuing. Which means continued social, economic, psychological, etc. disruptions. 2021 will be a cluster fuck that is going to make 2020 look like a cake walk. Climate crisis will worsen as well which will complicate everything even more than it would be anyway. The political climate here and world wide will become even more continuous, fighting for the last morsels of resources. I plan on divesting everything possible to become as self-reliant as possible. The church owns our land, Misa and I are both retired, so we will spend as little as possible, and purchase as skillfully as possible.
  I also think the third world countries are doomed...which creates millions of migrants. Jesus! What are we going to do with all the displaced people?
  So to sum up. It is going to get worse exponentially over the next 10 years and as RE has reminded us many times " I SEE DEAD PEOPLE!".

Some more ramblings:
Rest assured we are headed for a clusterfuck.

1. Stock market
Our stock market will follow Merika's lead with about 1 days lag! You guys go into a correction, next day we crash. With unemployment, huge deficit spending, social issues, war mongering and stock market PE ratios in the crazy ionisphere, I cant see Merikan markets making it to October without something major breaking. Guys at the top will still be ok. They will get out (They are now), and will have all their money in cash and gold after stuffing all the bad stocks into hedge funds and palming off into pension plans and unsuspection muppet investors .. Central bank will ramp up its printing even more ensurig hyper inflation ensues. Who know, in dollar terms the stock market may even recover and reach new all time high levels every day for years to come as the currency goes to zero. Think Venezuela. 

2. Housing
House prices in Oz have to come down. Either that or they inflate the price away like what you guys in Merika are doing... $1m house might be servicable if wages are $150/hr. 2nd option wont happen in a hurry, as we have somewhat of an aversion to deficit spending here in Oz... So far its been fairly limited and supposedly short term. It also hits out currency pretty hard when we do as we are a small economy and we dont have reserve currency status, so it is usualy curtailed, even by the more left leaning politicians.. Never say never though.
Wages have not grown much in 20 years. We paid $19 an hour in the early 2000's for unskilled labourers. We only pay $25 an hour now. ($Aus). 25% in 21 years. Thats about 1% a year compaunding I would think. I bet costs have gone up more than 1% a year!.
Someone on low wages, even with 2 incomes cant afford houses and have taken on huge mortgages while interest rates are low assuming they will sell them and make a profit rather than ever pay it down. The stock market will tank, the ecconomy will slow and house prices will start to fall. Eventually the prices will come back to afordable levels. On the way it will overshoot as all the people with huge mortgages will get margin calls from their banks, who have loaned out money with 5% deposits and up to 50% income to service loans, and quite a few interest only payments for first 5 years. What could possibly go wromg?
You lose a job, or get OT cut back in hard times, or your kids hit high school, where the big costs start raking in, and you cant make payments.
In Oz its not like Merika. You cant walk away from bad house loans. Default on the loan and the bank takes the house, sells it and chases you for the outstading amount.
I think 2022 is the year of the housing crash. There is a lot of mortgage stress around, and the job keeper schemes run by our morons in Canberra has just finished, as has all the deferement of payments periods a lot of banks were offering. Not forgiveness of payments, deferement... In a few months those without enough income will start to default and get foreclosed on. Banks will take 3 to 6 months to get paperwork in order to start foreclosures.

I saw this in 1990. I came to Melbourne with no money, no qualifications and had just left the military with a stuffed leg. Got jobs for a couple of years in a panel shop then driving a truck until I went back to school and did engineering. First job in a panel shop the supervison had bought ahouse 2 years earlier for $140K in the roaring greed is good 80's. (A lot of money in those in those days) He still owed $120K and his wife wanted to stop work to start a family. On his wage he could not afford the mortgage so looked at selling. House was now worth $90K in the depth of the reccesion. So much for houses cant go down in price.. He waited a few years. He had a choice. A lot of people wont have a choice.   
At least in a year or 3 my sons will be able to afford a house. Will be a lot of pain in the meantime.

Thats the trivial distractions on the way to the big final act;


3. The fuure
Look North. As soon as we get an Ice Free Arctic, and its very close, this is the time to start planning for Mad Max. Weather paterns are already disrupted. Ice free arctic will cause havoc with Northern Hemispher weather paterns and crops, resulting in natural disasters unheard of followed by food shortages. Southern Hemisphere will be a year or 2 behind. Refugee crisis like we have nexer seen before will will hit the globe when 3 or 4 billion people cant live in their current location anymore.

I too see dead people.
 
JOW
7
Science, Inventions & Techology / The electrical blueprints that orchestrate life
« Last post by knarf on April 15, 2021, 05:23:51 AM »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/XheAMrS8Q1c&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/XheAMrS8Q1c&fs=1</a>
8
Economics / Re: Hyperinflation or Deflation? the game is on...lets have some fun.
« Last post by knarf on April 14, 2021, 08:09:19 AM »
Come on fellas, Lets have some predictions to break the boredom:

1. When will markets crash and by how much?
2. When will property bubble in Oz burst?
3. What is the world going to look like in 5 and 10 years time?

Winner gets a sheep station. There are a few cheap ones out West.

JOW

My short answers.
1. In the next 3 months.
2. 2022
3, Watch Mad Max. (The original 1979 film) .
My long answers are a few pages back from memory..

Alan Watts is an arrogant, pompous, phony...he is the Wests super star of all eastern philosophy. Take him with a grain of salt. The point in posting that video was it is just speculation predicting the unknowable future. But I am addicted to seeing the future in visions. Sometimes I get close, other times not so much. So many things can effect the prediction along the way, but who cares.

1. I don't think the markets will crash any time soon. The billionaires are stuffing their coffers and are making more money everyday with their super algorithms to glean .5 cents on thousands of investments.  International trade is still very important. When there is still buying and selling at such a high volume the market will thrive...the rest of us will be deprived.

2. I don't have the experience to predict the housing bubble there, but this guy thinks the housing market is in deep trouble, NOW.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/YPnsszIEYIM&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/YPnsszIEYIM&fs=1</a>

3. This is a tough one. The way things are going here in the FSOA, none of us will be alive to have a future if the mass shootings keep happening EVERYDAY. :) I think there is going to be a fourth wave of the pandemic from the variants, and the vaccines will be ineffective to STOP it from continuing. Which means continued social, economic, psychological, etc. disruptions. 2021 will be a cluster fuck that is going to make 2020 look like a cake walk. Climate crisis will worsen as well which will complicate everything even more than it would be anyway. The political climate here and world wide will become even more continuous, fighting for the last morsels of resources. I plan on divesting everything possible to become as self-reliant as possible. The church owns our land, Misa and I are both retired, so we will spend as little as possible, and purchase as skillfully as possible.
  I also think the third world countries are doomed...which creates millions of migrants. Jesus! What are we going to do with all the displaced people?
  So to sum up. It is going to get worse exponentially over the next 10 years and as RE has reminded us many times " I SEE DEAD PEOPLE!".
9
Knarfs Knewz / Re: Tragedy and opportunity in everyday America
« Last post by knarf on April 14, 2021, 07:24:38 AM »

I'll just point out that access to guns also makes a suicide attempt into a certainty. Countless people, especially the young and impulsive take a jar of whatever pills they can find and recover. Even jumping, hanging or gassing requires planning and organization to prepare and carry out, not a sudden impulse and many attempts are not success or they are found in time. Its not my place to say Americans should lose their rights, but definitely a lot more lives are needlessly lost to suicide.

Great point Phil. I can attest to this truth because I have been experiencing some terrible symptoms of IBS, especially sleeplessness, and feeling very nauseous and unsettled. Last night I was contemplating ending it with a 22 rifle through the mouth, and was afraid I would botch it. Then I considered buying a .45 and doing it for sure. Hanging on during times of great suffering is a real conundrum. Even though I am pretty good at stilling my thoughts and emotions, this illness is overpowering at times. If there was assisted suicide here, I would go into counseling to see if it was the right time to say good bye to this world. I know that my suffering is a drop in the bucket compared to thousands who suffer worse than I, but that is little consolation when the quality of life wains and becomes negative.

You should talk about that with your fellow monks and family. Chronic pain is a different situation that sometimes can be justified, but not without thorough investigation first. Constipation and other complications from a spastic twisted colon was the main reason Elvis Presley went and obtained extra pills (above what his personal doctor already was giving him) from a dentist the night before he overdosed. In the bathroom at graceland, reading about Jesus.

About 4 months ago I thought I might have a blocked colon, and went to Urgent Care. They x-rayed it and said there was no blockage, just a a lot of shit in there. ( pun intended ). They recommended I double the dose of Mira-Lax until I became regular again. It took about 4 days and I finally pooped. I have been tweaking my Doctors instructions, 3 tsps of MetaMusil a day, and 1 dose of Mira-Lax. I have a very irregular appetite so I eat all kinds of easy to digest foods. Almost everyday I do OK in the morning but start fading about noon. I then am basically bedridden with the varying symptoms of IBS, sometimes sleeping 14 hours a day, the rest of the time I try to "endure the suffering patiently". Sometimes I loose patience. I have talked with all my friends about it, and none of them can think of anything else to do for it...but tell me they care...which means a lot.
10
Knarfs Knewz / Re: I am quitting the Knewz bizness today
« Last post by RE on April 13, 2021, 10:49:31 PM »
Ever since RE has been seriously ill he has contributed much less on the Dinner...and his cooking plus podcasts. He is the founder and "God" of the Dinner. :) Agelbert is with us no more, as many others have faded away...Surly, Golden Oxen, lucid dreams, azozeo, and many others who stayed awhile, and left. With a handful of active posters, I have tried to to keep visitors interested in coming to the Dinner through posting "Knewz", and it has attracted many visitors, but they will not comment and will not contribute to the Dinner to keep it going. It seems time to stop that process now. ( If the Dinner dies now we have a new site to talk about collapse that RE just set up ) Times change and it seems time for me to stop baiting the visitors because the are useless to functioning of the Dinner. I am done with the Knewz bizness.

It was gr8 you stayed with it to the bitter end Knarf, and overall the Diner had a good long run. Average blogs are like TV series and only last 3-4 seasons. We had a 9 season run on the Diner, and had Inot gone downhill so fast we would have made a Decade.  I will keep posting here until the ISP shuts us off, then move over to the Global Collapse create-a-forum site.  If I can get out of this Prison into some kind of more independent living arrangement before I croak, I may start writing again and set up a Free Space Blog on the WP site.  I will know better after Friday whether I might make my escape from here anytime soon.  Perhaps I'll come down and join you in the Monastery.   :icon_sunny:

RE
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