AuthorTopic: Hyperinflation or Deflation?  (Read 166749 times)

Offline knarf

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Re: Hyperinflation or Deflation? Predicting the Future
« Reply #765 on: April 09, 2021, 04:37:40 AM »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/83Mw-tF1AdI&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/83Mw-tF1AdI&fs=1</a>
NECROCAPITALISM at http://openmind693.wordpress.com ‘Rolling thunder. Shock. A noble one in fear and dread sets things in order and is watchful.’ I-Ching (Hex.51)

Offline John of Wallan

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Re: Hyperinflation or Deflation?
« Reply #766 on: April 09, 2021, 07:34:14 PM »
Chicken.
JOW

Offline knarf

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Re: Hyperinflation or Deflation?
« Reply #767 on: April 10, 2021, 05:48:19 AM »
Chicken.
JOW

Thank You!  :icon_sunny:
NECROCAPITALISM at http://openmind693.wordpress.com ‘Rolling thunder. Shock. A noble one in fear and dread sets things in order and is watchful.’ I-Ching (Hex.51)

Offline knarf

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Re: Hyperinflation or Deflation? the game is on...lets have some fun.
« Reply #768 on: April 14, 2021, 08:09:19 AM »
Come on fellas, Lets have some predictions to break the boredom:

1. When will markets crash and by how much?
2. When will property bubble in Oz burst?
3. What is the world going to look like in 5 and 10 years time?

Winner gets a sheep station. There are a few cheap ones out West.

JOW

My short answers.
1. In the next 3 months.
2. 2022
3, Watch Mad Max. (The original 1979 film) .
My long answers are a few pages back from memory..

Alan Watts is an arrogant, pompous, phony...he is the Wests super star of all eastern philosophy. Take him with a grain of salt. The point in posting that video was it is just speculation predicting the unknowable future. But I am addicted to seeing the future in visions. Sometimes I get close, other times not so much. So many things can effect the prediction along the way, but who cares.

1. I don't think the markets will crash any time soon. The billionaires are stuffing their coffers and are making more money everyday with their super algorithms to glean .5 cents on thousands of investments.  International trade is still very important. When there is still buying and selling at such a high volume the market will thrive...the rest of us will be deprived.

2. I don't have the experience to predict the housing bubble there, but this guy thinks the housing market is in deep trouble, NOW.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/YPnsszIEYIM&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/YPnsszIEYIM&fs=1</a>

3. This is a tough one. The way things are going here in the FSOA, none of us will be alive to have a future if the mass shootings keep happening EVERYDAY. :) I think there is going to be a fourth wave of the pandemic from the variants, and the vaccines will be ineffective to STOP it from continuing. Which means continued social, economic, psychological, etc. disruptions. 2021 will be a cluster fuck that is going to make 2020 look like a cake walk. Climate crisis will worsen as well which will complicate everything even more than it would be anyway. The political climate here and world wide will become even more continuous, fighting for the last morsels of resources. I plan on divesting everything possible to become as self-reliant as possible. The church owns our land, Misa and I are both retired, so we will spend as little as possible, and purchase as skillfully as possible.
  I also think the third world countries are doomed...which creates millions of migrants. Jesus! What are we going to do with all the displaced people?
  So to sum up. It is going to get worse exponentially over the next 10 years and as RE has reminded us many times " I SEE DEAD PEOPLE!".
NECROCAPITALISM at http://openmind693.wordpress.com ‘Rolling thunder. Shock. A noble one in fear and dread sets things in order and is watchful.’ I-Ching (Hex.51)

Offline John of Wallan

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Re: Hyperinflation or Deflation?
« Reply #769 on: April 15, 2021, 04:32:01 PM »
Come on fellas, Lets have some predictions to break the boredom:

1. When will markets crash and by how much?
2. When will property bubble in Oz burst?
3. What is the world going to look like in 5 and 10 years time?

Winner gets a sheep station. There are a few cheap ones out West.

JOW

My short answers.
1. In the next 3 months.
2. 2022
3, Watch Mad Max. (The original 1979 film) .
My long answers are a few pages back from memory..

Alan Watts is an arrogant, pompous, phony...he is the Wests super star of all eastern philosophy. Take him with a grain of salt. The point in posting that video was it is just speculation predicting the unknowable future. But I am addicted to seeing the future in visions. Sometimes I get close, other times not so much. So many things can effect the prediction along the way, but who cares.

1. I don't think the markets will crash any time soon. The billionaires are stuffing their coffers and are making more money everyday with their super algorithms to glean .5 cents on thousands of investments.  International trade is still very important. When there is still buying and selling at such a high volume the market will thrive...the rest of us will be deprived.

2. I don't have the experience to predict the housing bubble there, but this guy thinks the housing market is in deep trouble, NOW.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/YPnsszIEYIM&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/YPnsszIEYIM&fs=1</a>

3. This is a tough one. The way things are going here in the FSOA, none of us will be alive to have a future if the mass shootings keep happening EVERYDAY. :) I think there is going to be a fourth wave of the pandemic from the variants, and the vaccines will be ineffective to STOP it from continuing. Which means continued social, economic, psychological, etc. disruptions. 2021 will be a cluster fuck that is going to make 2020 look like a cake walk. Climate crisis will worsen as well which will complicate everything even more than it would be anyway. The political climate here and world wide will become even more continuous, fighting for the last morsels of resources. I plan on divesting everything possible to become as self-reliant as possible. The church owns our land, Misa and I are both retired, so we will spend as little as possible, and purchase as skillfully as possible.
  I also think the third world countries are doomed...which creates millions of migrants. Jesus! What are we going to do with all the displaced people?
  So to sum up. It is going to get worse exponentially over the next 10 years and as RE has reminded us many times " I SEE DEAD PEOPLE!".

Some more ramblings:
Rest assured we are headed for a clusterfuck.

1. Stock market
Our stock market will follow Merika's lead with about 1 days lag! You guys go into a correction, next day we crash. With unemployment, huge deficit spending, social issues, war mongering and stock market PE ratios in the crazy ionisphere, I cant see Merikan markets making it to October without something major breaking. Guys at the top will still be ok. They will get out (They are now), and will have all their money in cash and gold after stuffing all the bad stocks into hedge funds and palming off into pension plans and unsuspection muppet investors .. Central bank will ramp up its printing even more ensurig hyper inflation ensues. Who know, in dollar terms the stock market may even recover and reach new all time high levels every day for years to come as the currency goes to zero. Think Venezuela. 

2. Housing
House prices in Oz have to come down. Either that or they inflate the price away like what you guys in Merika are doing... $1m house might be servicable if wages are $150/hr. 2nd option wont happen in a hurry, as we have somewhat of an aversion to deficit spending here in Oz... So far its been fairly limited and supposedly short term. It also hits out currency pretty hard when we do as we are a small economy and we dont have reserve currency status, so it is usualy curtailed, even by the more left leaning politicians.. Never say never though.
Wages have not grown much in 20 years. We paid $19 an hour in the early 2000's for unskilled labourers. We only pay $25 an hour now. ($Aus). 25% in 21 years. Thats about 1% a year compaunding I would think. I bet costs have gone up more than 1% a year!.
Someone on low wages, even with 2 incomes cant afford houses and have taken on huge mortgages while interest rates are low assuming they will sell them and make a profit rather than ever pay it down. The stock market will tank, the ecconomy will slow and house prices will start to fall. Eventually the prices will come back to afordable levels. On the way it will overshoot as all the people with huge mortgages will get margin calls from their banks, who have loaned out money with 5% deposits and up to 50% income to service loans, and quite a few interest only payments for first 5 years. What could possibly go wromg?
You lose a job, or get OT cut back in hard times, or your kids hit high school, where the big costs start raking in, and you cant make payments.
In Oz its not like Merika. You cant walk away from bad house loans. Default on the loan and the bank takes the house, sells it and chases you for the outstading amount.
I think 2022 is the year of the housing crash. There is a lot of mortgage stress around, and the job keeper schemes run by our morons in Canberra has just finished, as has all the deferement of payments periods a lot of banks were offering. Not forgiveness of payments, deferement... In a few months those without enough income will start to default and get foreclosed on. Banks will take 3 to 6 months to get paperwork in order to start foreclosures.

I saw this in 1990. I came to Melbourne with no money, no qualifications and had just left the military with a stuffed leg. Got jobs for a couple of years in a panel shop then driving a truck until I went back to school and did engineering. First job in a panel shop the supervison had bought ahouse 2 years earlier for $140K in the roaring greed is good 80's. (A lot of money in those in those days) He still owed $120K and his wife wanted to stop work to start a family. On his wage he could not afford the mortgage so looked at selling. House was now worth $90K in the depth of the reccesion. So much for houses cant go down in price.. He waited a few years. He had a choice. A lot of people wont have a choice.   
At least in a year or 3 my sons will be able to afford a house. Will be a lot of pain in the meantime.

Thats the trivial distractions on the way to the big final act;


3. The fuure
Look North. As soon as we get an Ice Free Arctic, and its very close, this is the time to start planning for Mad Max. Weather paterns are already disrupted. Ice free arctic will cause havoc with Northern Hemispher weather paterns and crops, resulting in natural disasters unheard of followed by food shortages. Southern Hemisphere will be a year or 2 behind. Refugee crisis like we have nexer seen before will will hit the globe when 3 or 4 billion people cant live in their current location anymore.

I too see dead people.
 
JOW