AuthorTopic: A Time of Seven Generations  (Read 13137 times)

Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: Self-Sufficiency: Can it be achieved in time?
« Reply #30 on: March 08, 2017, 09:11:18 PM »
Also, we can't even go back the Bronze Age.  We've also mined up all the EZ to reach Copper & Tin. We've also used up most of the good sand for making concrete.

The New Stone Age is on the Horizon.  The tools PY put up pics of are the ones you need to learn how to make out of locally available materials.

Stone Knives & Bearskins Coming Soon to a Theater Near You.
I think your argument is flawed not in being incorrect but in being incomplete.  I think the more important factor is what Palloy alluded to, and something the Archdruid has reiterated many times: not technical feasibility but economic practicality.  While I don't think the ability to make iron tools will go away soon, the amount of effort it will take will mean that it will only get used for the most critical applications.  Does a metal shovel really dig that much better than a wooden one?  I suspect not.  But you might want to sharpen your wooden shovel with a metal file.

I definitely agree with your conclusion, RE, that learning how to survive with simple, locally crafted tools will be very advantageous for long-term survival.
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Offline RE

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The Age of Scavenging
« Reply #31 on: March 08, 2017, 10:17:32 PM »
Also, we can't even go back the Bronze Age.  We've also mined up all the EZ to reach Copper & Tin. We've also used up most of the good sand for making concrete.

The New Stone Age is on the Horizon.  The tools PY put up pics of are the ones you need to learn how to make out of locally available materials.

Stone Knives & Bearskins Coming Soon to a Theater Near You.
I think your argument is flawed not in being incorrect but in being incomplete.  I think the more important factor is what Palloy alluded to, and something the Archdruid has reiterated many times: not technical feasibility but economic practicality.  While I don't think the ability to make iron tools will go away soon, the amount of effort it will take will mean that it will only get used for the most critical applications.  Does a metal shovel really dig that much better than a wooden one?  I suspect not.  But you might want to sharpen your wooden shovel with a metal file.

I definitely agree with your conclusion, RE, that learning how to survive with simple, locally crafted tools will be very advantageous for long-term survival.

Well yes of course it's about economics, just like with the Oil.  It's not that there is not Iron, Copper & Tin still left in the mountains, there most certainly is.  They are common elements, not rare earths.  It's the economics of extracting them and refining them on the energy level now that does not work.

The system has been leveraging up for a long time based on energy availability.  At the beginning of the Roman Empire, they had many forests to burn locally, and close iron ore to mine as well, utilizing Slave Labor.  But they depleted their local sources of wood to burn and iron to mine up, and so had to import it in, over longer and longer supply lines.  They had to string out their military along those supply lines, and it eventually got stretched too thin, and the Empire Collapsed.  Sound familiar?

There is no further cheap energy source to leverage up on.  There probably will be an "Age of Scavenging" that maybe lasts a Century, but continuing to mine and refine metals just is not sustainable.  Not even scavenging the huge pillars of steel from Bridges and Skyscrapers is logistically feasible in a world without enough stored energy around that you could cut them up for spare parts,then move them from where you cut them up to where you need them.

We're definitely headed for a New Stone Age, just as always it is the TIMELINE that is the question?  I think my guess of 100-200 years on this timeline is about right, which if your children are say 0-10 years old they may live to see, and their children (your grandchildren) almost definitely will live to see.

RE
« Last Edit: March 08, 2017, 10:23:45 PM by RE »
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Offline Nearingsfault

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Re: Self-Sufficiency: Can it be achieved in time?
« Reply #32 on: March 09, 2017, 03:24:37 AM »
Same problem again.  On a 1 to 2 century time line we will recreate a functioning local economy or be long gone.  Weather its metal shovels or wood, food forests or plowed fields, electric tractors or oxen carts all of the scenarios are far outside my event horizon.
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Offline luciddreams

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Re: Self-Sufficiency: Can it be achieved in time?
« Reply #33 on: March 09, 2017, 06:05:33 AM »
How long will the rails last?  They are everywhere, and one section can be easily handled by two people.  I imagine this will be the first steel to be scavenged, and I also imagine they will be scavenged and stocked out of the weather because they will be a precious commodity. 

Offline RE

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Re: Self-Sufficiency: Can it be achieved in time?
« Reply #34 on: March 09, 2017, 07:47:26 AM »
Same problem again.  On a 1 to 2 century time line we will recreate a functioning local economy or be long gone.

I don't agree with that, at least if by "economy" you mean having metal tools.  We've lived most of our existence on Earth with Wood, Bone and Stone tools.  There are people still living that way, as PY indicated there are poor farmers in the 3rd World who can't afford metal farming implements.

Quote
Weather its metal shovels or wood, food forests or plowed fields, electric tractors or oxen carts all of the scenarios are far outside my event horizon.

But not outside the Event Horizon of your Granchildren.  Who will teach them these things if you don't know them yourself?

SG Note: It's "whether" not "weather" & "it's" not "its"

RE
« Last Edit: March 09, 2017, 01:04:26 PM by RE »
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Offline RE

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Re: Self-Sufficiency: Can it be achieved in time?
« Reply #35 on: March 09, 2017, 07:56:34 AM »
How long will the rails last?  They are everywhere, and one section can be easily handled by two people.  I imagine this will be the first steel to be scavenged, and I also imagine they will be scavenged and stocked out of the weather because they will be a precious commodity.

I'd give them 100 years  before they were too rusted to be useful.  Then you have the issue of what do you cut them up with?  What kind of tools do you have to machine any parts you cast if you can cut it up and melt it?  Do you have a lathe fine enough to make screws, nuts & bolts?  What turns that lathe?  Do they actually fit together?  Those suckers rust quite fast and are quite necessary on many tools with multiple parts.

RE
« Last Edit: March 09, 2017, 10:23:42 AM by RE »
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Offline Nearingsfault

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Re: Self-Sufficiency: Can it be achieved in time?
« Reply #36 on: March 09, 2017, 05:28:48 PM »
My view is that I do not need to teach my children to forge. I will teach them to weld arc and torch. Blacksmithing; well if I live to see it on the horizon I'll take it up then. I think I don't buy the single generation backslide to the Stone age you seem to be advancing. There will be areas of slow descent, that is where I plan on being. For spelling blame auto correct and fatigue.
If its important then try something, fail, disect, learn from it, try again, and again and again until it kills you or you succeed.

Offline RE

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7 Generations Ahead: The Key to Sustainability
« Reply #37 on: March 09, 2017, 05:42:51 PM »
My view is that I do not need to teach my children to forge. I will teach them to weld arc and torch. Blacksmithing; well if I live to see it on the horizon I'll take it up then. I think I don't buy the single generation backslide to the Stone age you seem to be advancing. There will be areas of slow descent, that is where I plan on being. For spelling blame auto correct and fatigue.

To be fair here, I put the full back slide to Stone Age at 2 generations away, not one.  In the time of your Grand Children or perhaps 3 away in the time of your Great Grandchildren.  There are people who live long enough to see their great grandchildren born.  Around 100 years away.

So, the thing is, if you don't acquire the knowledge and skills now and pass them down to your children,they can't pass them to the next generation.  After TSHTF, there won't be a lot of time or materials, books etc around to start on the learning curve of this stuff.

First Nations People thought 7 Generations ahead.  That is how you make a sustainable society.


RE
« Last Edit: March 09, 2017, 07:38:56 PM by RE »
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Offline luciddreams

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Re: 7 Generations Ahead: The Key to Sustainability
« Reply #38 on: March 10, 2017, 07:14:02 AM »
My view is that I do not need to teach my children to forge. I will teach them to weld arc and torch. Blacksmithing; well if I live to see it on the horizon I'll take it up then. I think I don't buy the single generation backslide to the Stone age you seem to be advancing. There will be areas of slow descent, that is where I plan on being. For spelling blame auto correct and fatigue.

To be fair here, I put the full back slide to Stone Age at 2 generations away, not one.  In the time of your Grand Children or perhaps 3 away in the time of your Great Grandchildren.  There are people who live long enough to see their great grandchildren born.  Around 100 years away.

So, the thing is, if you don't acquire the knowledge and skills now and pass them down to your children,they can't pass them to the next generation.  After TSHTF, there won't be a lot of time or materials, books etc around to start on the learning curve of this stuff.

First Nations People thought 7 Generations ahead.  That is how you make a sustainable society.


RE

We're all too busy trying to get by in the world that we have been stuck with to do anything other.  Dropping out of the Matrix and spending your time doing what should be done is mostly looked down upon by society.  You are punished for that behavior by not having any money.  You have to have money to live, and you have to have much  more money when you have kids. 

Making a shovel from rail isn't something that 99.999% of us 99%ers will ever have the time or inclination for.  We have to be concerned with making the money that is necessary for keeping our children alive into their adulthood...never mind their children.  It's likely that their children will not come into existence because the world will be so fucked up that you'd have to be fucking crazy to reproduce and bring that responsibility onto yourself.  I almost didn't reproduce due to my understanding of the near future. 

It's unfortunate to think that way.  Reproduction is a large part of what it means to be a biological being.  The drive to sex is one of the largest pulls on the psyche, and with good reason. 

Most of our children are fucked already.  We're leaving them with radioactively contaminated oceans, no topsoil to grow food, raising ocean water levels, dead and dying corals, a mass species extinction event, and overall polluted land and water, and crumbling infrastructure for a way of life with no replacement.  What my children will get is likely going to be societal chaos before they are even adults themselves.  What they will likely get is a standard of living that is worse then than it is now. 

I hope I can find a way to be successful for them into the near future.  Some of us will be able to do that for our children, but most of us will not.  If we are concerned with making a shovel out of rail than I can guarantee that success will not be what we will be handing down to our children.  Brute survival will be, and there ain't no way to sugarcoat brute survival.  You're better off learning how to live off of the wild wilderness than you are making a shovel from rail. You will either be clever enough to survive, or you'll manage to rise to the top where fighting for survival is not your concern because you are somehow wealthy in the future we will get.  Figuring out how to be wealthy in a world of chaos and dwindling energy is probably the most important endeavor any of us parents can be on just now. 
« Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 07:16:04 AM by luciddreams »

Offline RE

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Re: 7 Generations Ahead: The Key to Sustainability
« Reply #39 on: March 10, 2017, 07:56:30 AM »
My view is that I do not need to teach my children to forge. I will teach them to weld arc and torch. Blacksmithing; well if I live to see it on the horizon I'll take it up then. I think I don't buy the single generation backslide to the Stone age you seem to be advancing. There will be areas of slow descent, that is where I plan on being. For spelling blame auto correct and fatigue.

To be fair here, I put the full back slide to Stone Age at 2 generations away, not one.  In the time of your Grand Children or perhaps 3 away in the time of your Great Grandchildren.  There are people who live long enough to see their great grandchildren born.  Around 100 years away.

So, the thing is, if you don't acquire the knowledge and skills now and pass them down to your children,they can't pass them to the next generation.  After TSHTF, there won't be a lot of time or materials, books etc around to start on the learning curve of this stuff.

First Nations People thought 7 Generations ahead.  That is how you make a sustainable society.


RE

We're all too busy trying to get by in the world that we have been stuck with to do anything other.  Dropping out of the Matrix and spending your time doing what should be done is mostly looked down upon by society.  You are punished for that behavior by not having any money.  You have to have money to live, and you have to have much  more money when you have kids. 

Making a shovel from rail isn't something that 99.999% of us 99%ers will ever have the time or inclination for.  We have to be concerned with making the money that is necessary for keeping our children alive into their adulthood...never mind their children.  It's likely that their children will not come into existence because the world will be so fucked up that you'd have to be fucking crazy to reproduce and bring that responsibility onto yourself.  I almost didn't reproduce due to my understanding of the near future. 

It's unfortunate to think that way.  Reproduction is a large part of what it means to be a biological being.  The drive to sex is one of the largest pulls on the psyche, and with good reason. 

Most of our children are fucked already.  We're leaving them with radioactively contaminated oceans, no topsoil to grow food, raising ocean water levels, dead and dying corals, a mass species extinction event, and overall polluted land and water, and crumbling infrastructure for a way of life with no replacement.  What my children will get is likely going to be societal chaos before they are even adults themselves.  What they will likely get is a standard of living that is worse then than it is now. 

I hope I can find a way to be successful for them into the near future.  Some of us will be able to do that for our children, but most of us will not.  If we are concerned with making a shovel out of rail than I can guarantee that success will not be what we will be handing down to our children.  Brute survival will be, and there ain't no way to sugarcoat brute survival.  You're better off learning how to live off of the wild wilderness than you are making a shovel from rail. You will either be clever enough to survive, or you'll manage to rise to the top where fighting for survival is not your concern because you are somehow wealthy in the future we will get.  Figuring out how to be wealthy in a world of chaos and dwindling energy is probably the most important endeavor any of us parents can be on just now.

I do not agree with this.

You CAN learn NOW ways to do your cultivation without using metal tools, particularly in your situation.  It doesn't have to be done large scale commercially, just do it on your own little acre plot of land.  You don't really depend on it for food right now, it's just a supplement.  You don't need to comete commercially with it, just becomw better with the techniques,much like becoming an expert in Bamboo craftsmanship.  In fact, make your tools for permaculturing out of the Bamboo!  Spend your time this way, and you can teach it to Ayden and Zen before you join me in the Great Beyond, and they can teach it to their children.  If YOU o not do this though, chances are Ayden and Zen will never learn how to do it.  You are their FATHER, and the most significant teacher they will ever have.  You can make the biggest difference in their chances for long term survival.  But not if you just look to tomorrow and survival of that.  You need to look 7 Generations ahead.

RE
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Self-Sufficiency: Can it be achieved in time?
« Reply #40 on: March 10, 2017, 10:20:35 AM »
The Seven Generations concept is a fine one, and a good example of how much wiser native elders were than the criminals we call leaders today.

With that said, I have to go on record here. I think there's something going on here you might call "hunter-gatherer bias" It's rampant in the doom community. 

The narrative is that collapse will put us back in the stone age in a couple of generations, and that all knowledge and all technology will be worthless, and by God we better learn how to get by with flint and sinew , because nothing else we be available.

That could happen, in some places, to some survivors of a fast collapse, imho. But it isn't likely to be the only thing that happens, nor is it likely to be universal.  There will be many different narratives. Some few places will be rich in energy from falling water and wind, if nothing else, and those places will support a higher technology lifestyle which the tribes who inherit will be able to defend with superior weapons, if not for any better reason. They may even be able to keep their electronics going, at least for a long time.

If it weren't for climate change, which is the real bad-ass horseman of the apocalypse, I would make a case for the evolution to a city-state civilization, with different kinds of tech being kept alive by different tribes.

But if Antarctica is the only place left to support human life, that gets more dicey. We could die off as a species in three generations or less, and the future space aliens will show up and say "Too late again. Another life form that didn't evolve fast enough to learn how to live sustainably."

There are so many variables as to make this topic no more than an interesting conversation with no sure answers.

You like stone age hatchets. Make 'em. Use 'em. Not my path.
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Offline K-Dog

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Re: Self-Sufficiency: Can it be achieved in time?
« Reply #41 on: March 10, 2017, 01:22:51 PM »
Perhaps aliens on a planet with only tight oil would evolve slowly enough to experience sustainability.
Under ideal conditions of temperature and pressure the organism will grow without limit.

Offline RE

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Re: Self-Sufficiency: Can it be achieved in time?
« Reply #42 on: March 10, 2017, 01:44:12 PM »
The Seven Generations concept is a fine one, and a good example of how much wiser native elders were than the criminals we call leaders today.

With that said, I have to go on record here. I think there's something going on here you might call "hunter-gatherer bias" It's rampant in the doom community. 

Except this is not Hunter-Gather technology.  It's agriculture, but done without metal tools.

I don't buy your high tech city-state gated community for rich people living the high tech lifestyle while  the poor people are outside living as H-Gs with stone tools.  You haven't addressed the key issue, which is maintaining metallurgy without much energy and without the heavy equipment for mining what is already increasingly difficult to mine up material.

RE
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Offline luciddreams

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Re: 7 Generations Ahead: The Key to Sustainability
« Reply #43 on: March 10, 2017, 01:45:55 PM »
My view is that I do not need to teach my children to forge. I will teach them to weld arc and torch. Blacksmithing; well if I live to see it on the horizon I'll take it up then. I think I don't buy the single generation backslide to the Stone age you seem to be advancing. There will be areas of slow descent, that is where I plan on being. For spelling blame auto correct and fatigue.

To be fair here, I put the full back slide to Stone Age at 2 generations away, not one.  In the time of your Grand Children or perhaps 3 away in the time of your Great Grandchildren.  There are people who live long enough to see their great grandchildren born.  Around 100 years away.

So, the thing is, if you don't acquire the knowledge and skills now and pass them down to your children,they can't pass them to the next generation.  After TSHTF, there won't be a lot of time or materials, books etc around to start on the learning curve of this stuff.

First Nations People thought 7 Generations ahead.  That is how you make a sustainable society.


RE

We're all too busy trying to get by in the world that we have been stuck with to do anything other.  Dropping out of the Matrix and spending your time doing what should be done is mostly looked down upon by society.  You are punished for that behavior by not having any money.  You have to have money to live, and you have to have much  more money when you have kids. 

Making a shovel from rail isn't something that 99.999% of us 99%ers will ever have the time or inclination for.  We have to be concerned with making the money that is necessary for keeping our children alive into their adulthood...never mind their children.  It's likely that their children will not come into existence because the world will be so fucked up that you'd have to be fucking crazy to reproduce and bring that responsibility onto yourself.  I almost didn't reproduce due to my understanding of the near future. 

It's unfortunate to think that way.  Reproduction is a large part of what it means to be a biological being.  The drive to sex is one of the largest pulls on the psyche, and with good reason. 

Most of our children are fucked already.  We're leaving them with radioactively contaminated oceans, no topsoil to grow food, raising ocean water levels, dead and dying corals, a mass species extinction event, and overall polluted land and water, and crumbling infrastructure for a way of life with no replacement.  What my children will get is likely going to be societal chaos before they are even adults themselves.  What they will likely get is a standard of living that is worse then than it is now. 

I hope I can find a way to be successful for them into the near future.  Some of us will be able to do that for our children, but most of us will not.  If we are concerned with making a shovel out of rail than I can guarantee that success will not be what we will be handing down to our children.  Brute survival will be, and there ain't no way to sugarcoat brute survival.  You're better off learning how to live off of the wild wilderness than you are making a shovel from rail. You will either be clever enough to survive, or you'll manage to rise to the top where fighting for survival is not your concern because you are somehow wealthy in the future we will get.  Figuring out how to be wealthy in a world of chaos and dwindling energy is probably the most important endeavor any of us parents can be on just now.

I do not agree with this.

You CAN learn NOW ways to do your cultivation without using metal tools, particularly in your situation.  It doesn't have to be done large scale commercially, just do it on your own little acre plot of land.  You don't really depend on it for food right now, it's just a supplement.  You don't need to comete commercially with it, just becomw better with the techniques,much like becoming an expert in Bamboo craftsmanship.  In fact, make your tools for permaculturing out of the Bamboo!  Spend your time this way, and you can teach it to Ayden and Zen before you join me in the Great Beyond, and they can teach it to their children.  If YOU o not do this though, chances are Ayden and Zen will never learn how to do it.  You are their FATHER, and the most significant teacher they will ever have.  You can make the biggest difference in their chances for long term survival.  But not if you just look to tomorrow and survival of that.  You need to look 7 Generations ahead.

RE

Well first it's Ayden and Harper (my two son's first names).

Second, you don't agree with what?  My entire post?  I stated a lot, what exactly is it that I said that you don't agree with? 

Thirdly you had a few typos there...you really should work on that if you're going to be the Spelling Gestapo.  Especially with the amount of shit I have recently endured due to fuckin' up the Queens proper English. 

Yes, I would certainly make tools with bamboo.  In fact, I do make tools with bamboo quite often actually.  I went looking for traditional agricultural tools made of bamboo but did not turn anything up (I did this with my original post on this thread).  I found a plow with bamboo in it's design, and of course bamboo rakes which I already knew about (Keiji has some he's made for sale at his shop). 

You could easily make a small trowel with a larger diameter bamboo, but a large shovel I'm not sure you could do.  I suppose you could make a shovel out of moso since it gets 12" in diameter.  You can make knives with bamboo...I've been cut by bamboo several times (when you split it the skin can be quite sharp).  I can easily envision a fork made out of bamboo. 

Metal is not necessary for agriculture to exist...obviously.  The Easter Islanders had a civilization that was constructed on no more than they could float there with on hollowed out tree canoes. 

I'm too busy making money in our current state of BAU to be too concerned with making shovels after tshtf.  I'm making money with Permaculture and bamboo on top of my conventional landscaping endeavor.  That is wayyyyyyy more than most people are doing with respect to the lower energy per capita future that's just about here. 

The way I see it, the fact that I'm a practicing professional permaculturist, as well as learning all of the skills involved with traditional bamboo culture, as well as cultivating a business that works well with BAU...my children are better positioned than most non-wealthy children are.  Learning to make a shovel out of a dumpster just isn't necessary IMO.  That's what blacksmiths are for. 

Offline knarf

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Re: Self-Sufficiency: Can it be achieved in time?
« Reply #44 on: March 10, 2017, 01:58:08 PM »
I don't think there is really any way of knowing what dynamics will collapse, or when. It looks like climate change will hit us first, and major adjustments will have to made. Next is environmental collapse, especially in the ocean, but in many other locations. Then the financial bust will happen. Money will mean nothing, because it has become digital and is no longer directly involved with the trading of goods. The 001% will be ok here, because they are at the top of the trickle down kingdom. Then comes the real revolution. Which sc-fi writers are having a hay day with now.
When you reach my age, 64, there is not much prepping I can do. It takes a LOT of work. Maybe the kids being born today and in the future will learn how to make the best use of their environment, but if your past 40, you will do the best you can to survive until the grim reaper shakes your hand. I also do not think that it makes a hill of beans to believe that achieving self-sufficiency is realistic now, or in the next 10 years at least.
  There are far to many variables in this game to be able to cut through all the BS to find a clear path to self-sufficiency. Because of all the variables and the rapid pace of change these days,  the self-sufficiency game is not an unskillful one to play. Just don't expect it turn out the way you think it will. This is the time to surf the waves of the rising tide of epic change. Who knows where it will take us?
NECROCAPITALISM at http://openmind693.wordpress.com ‘Rolling thunder. Shock. A noble one in fear and dread sets things in order and is watchful.’ I-Ching (Hex.51)

 

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